MAFIA 79: The Price is Right! [GAME THREAD]

[Chaqa]

Dousing is real.

Sweet is like… 25% chance real

Bona and Eden are a 50/50

So we add that up and let Damo do the math.

and so you wish to decide a 50/50 with less info than we'll have tomorrow in lieu of flipping a 75% shot at mafia

curious

Well yes because the 50/50 is a cumulative 100% chance of hitting mafia but S&C could just be town with no for sure counter wagon for tomorrow

[President Eden]

Dousing is real.

Sweet is like… 25% chance real

Bona and Eden are a 50/50

So we add that up and let Damo do the math.

and so you wish to decide a 50/50 with less info than we'll have tomorrow in lieu of flipping a 75% shot at mafia

curious

more serious prompt/prod:

if you think s&c is likely scum, then there's only one mafia power (as there are 2 PRs), and based on what you said earlier about the Traitor (with which I agree), I think it's very likely the one power used was recruiting the Traitor, which means there is no way for the mafia to manipulate the results.

if you think s&c is likely town, then not only is there a chance for there to be a JOAT, but we obviously shouldn't be killing likely town. if I felt s&c were likely town I would be shelving my cool plan and consenting to the thunderdome

but I think we hang scum s&c here, we get ironclad proof of who the real one between me and Bona is, we resolve that 50/50 and we're in fantastic shape for the endgame

[Chaqa]

I’m honestly shocked you aren’t harping on this because it’s the equivalent of voting on 7 in among us. In fact I think I’ve just convinced myself

##Vote Eden

If you were town you’d be demanding we vote Bona

[President Eden]

xpost

[President Eden]

I’m honestly shocked you aren’t harping on this because it’s the equivalent of voting on 7 in among us. In fact I think I’ve just convinced myself

##Vote Eden

If you were town you’d be demanding we vote Bona

it's not, because there are PRs with confirmable results

[President Eden]

also that math makes no sense.

it's more like having a clear 50/50 on 8, but with both people claiming PRs which function in such a way as to create a clear paper trail, and also having a very good shot at the other impostor

[Chaqa]

I’m honestly shocked you aren’t harping on this because it’s the equivalent of voting on 7 in among us. In fact I think I’ve just convinced myself

##Vote Eden

If you were town you’d be demanding we vote Bona

it's not, because there are PRs with confirmable results

All it takes is the mafia driving and your whole plan is messed up

And it relies on you picking someone who is town

[Jamiet99uk]

I’m honestly shocked you aren’t harping on this because it’s the equivalent of voting on 7 in among us.

I've only played amogus a few times; could you explain what "voting on 7" refers to?

[Jamiet99uk]

I’m honestly shocked you aren’t harping on this because it’s the equivalent of voting on 7 in among us. In fact I think I’ve just convinced myself

##Vote Eden

If you were town you’d be demanding we vote Bona

it's not, because there are PRs with confirmable results

All it takes is the mafia driving and your whole plan is messed up

And it relies on you picking someone who is town

So, you think it's impossible the Mafia used a Driver ability N1, but you think there's a dangerous likelihood the Mafia still have a Driver ability ready to use?

[sweetandcool]

Also, his plan being good for town relies on Eden not being mafia in the first place.

Is any of this resonating with you, @Dousing? Remember, if Eden is Mafia, we probably are dealing with at least 2 mafia driving the sweetandcool wagon.

[President Eden]

I’m honestly shocked you aren’t harping on this because it’s the equivalent of voting on 7 in among us. In fact I think I’ve just convinced myself

##Vote Eden

If you were town you’d be demanding we vote Bona

it's not, because there are PRs with confirmable results

All it takes is the mafia driving and your whole plan is messed up

And it relies on you picking someone who is town

As noted earlier, if s&c is mafia then it’s extremely unlikely the JOAT is in the game. The evidence seems to suggest that the Traitor was recruited, so if Dousing and I are the only two PRs, the mafia powers are accounted for.

I also don’t think a bus drive hard counters this as strongly as you think, but I don’t want to discuss that.

And as far as “me” choosing, I think the best version of the plan as discussed by various people is for you all to deliberate about who would be good candidates to be roleblocked—but without me participating so no one can say I tried to steer or rig it—and then Dousing names the target. Obviously, the target being mafia is a potential fail point, but as I’ve noted before, we have to trust some number of people without confirming them anyway, so I don’t see this as additionally risky. Just don’t pick suspicious people… or let them steer the choice.



Long story short, I think your analogy is misguided, and I’m pretty confident this is the best way forward under the circumstances. If I thought s&c were likely to be town then I’d have thunderdomed Bona already and accepted that I’m probably gonna have to be miskilled to win. I like to think, especially as a role that could potentially block the nightkill, that I’m worth not miskilling if it can be avoided.

[Chaqa]

it's not, because there are PRs with confirmable results

All it takes is the mafia driving and your whole plan is messed up

And it relies on you picking someone who is town

So, you think it's impossible the Mafia used a Driver ability N1, but you think there's a dangerous likelihood the Mafia still have a Driver ability ready to use?

I don't think they would use it without reason. I could see Janitor or Role Cop on Night 1 or 2, but driver? Eh.

[President Eden]

I’m honestly shocked you aren’t harping on this because it’s the equivalent of voting on 7 in among us.

I've only played amogus a few times; could you explain what "voting on 7" refers to?

It’s equivalent to voting on MYLO instead of no killing.

His statement is a little more complicated than his summary (because we obviously aren’t voting on MYLO), but it’s still misguided.

That said, I’m basically 100% sure it’s coming from a good place, it’s just inaccurate.

[Jamiet99uk]

All it takes is the mafia driving and your whole plan is messed up

And it relies on you picking someone who is town

So, you think it's impossible the Mafia used a Driver ability N1, but you think there's a dangerous likelihood the Mafia still have a Driver ability ready to use?

I don't think they would use it without reason. I could see Janitor or Role Cop on Night 1 or 2, but driver? Eh.

We know a Janitor wasn't used.

Can't rule out a Role Cop having been used.

[Chaqa]

it's not, because there are PRs with confirmable results

All it takes is the mafia driving and your whole plan is messed up

And it relies on you picking someone who is town

As noted earlier, if s&c is mafia then it’s extremely unlikely the JOAT is in the game. citation needed: The evidence seems to suggest that the Traitor was recruited, so if Dousing and I are the only two PRs, the mafia powers are accounted for.

I also don’t think a bus drive hard counters this as strongly as you think, but I don’t want to discuss that.

And as far as “me” choosing, I think the best version of the plan as discussed by various people is for you all to deliberate about who would be good candidates to be roleblocked—but without me participating so no one can say I tried to steer or rig it—and then Dousing names the target. Obviously, the target being mafia is a potential fail point, but as I’ve noted before, we have to trust some number of people without confirming them anyway, so I don’t see this as additionally risky. Just don’t pick suspicious people… or let them steer the choice.



Long story short, I think your analogy is misguided, and I’m pretty confident this is the best way forward under the circumstances. If I thought s&c were likely to be town then I’d have thunderdomed Bona already and accepted that I’m probably gonna have to be miskilled to win. I like to think, especially as a role that could potentially block the nightkill, that I’m worth not miskilling if it can be avoided.

[Jamiet99uk]

I’m honestly shocked you aren’t harping on this because it’s the equivalent of voting on 7 in among us.

I've only played amogus a few times; could you explain what "voting on 7" refers to?

It’s equivalent to voting on MYLO instead of no killing.

His statement is a little more complicated than his summary (because we obviously aren’t voting on MYLO), but it’s still misguided.

That said, I’m basically 100% sure it’s coming from a good place, it’s just inaccurate.

Thank you.

[President Eden]

Sorry, “voting on 7” is equivalent to voting at MYLO. This is because there are 2 impostors to 5 crewmates, but each impostor can kill, so if you guess wrong on 7, you go to 6, and a double kill from the impostors makes it 2v2 and impostors win.

[Jamiet99uk]

All it takes is the mafia driving and your whole plan is messed up

And it relies on you picking someone who is town

As noted earlier, if s&c is mafia then it’s extremely unlikely the JOAT is in the game. citation needed: The evidence seems to suggest that the Traitor was recruited, so if Dousing and I are the only two PRs, the mafia powers are accounted for.

President Eden has explained why he thinks it is likely a Traitor was recruited, Chaqa.

"Why aren’t you actually reading the thread?" as someone asked me a little while ago.

[Jamiet99uk]

Sorry, “voting on 7” is equivalent to voting at MYLO. This is because there are 2 impostors to 5 crewmates, but each impostor can kill, so if you guess wrong on 7, you go to 6, and a double kill from the impostors makes it 2v2 and impostors win.

Thank you, gotcha.

[sweetandcool]

So, you think it's impossible the Mafia used a Driver ability N1, but you think there's a dangerous likelihood the Mafia still have a Driver ability ready to use?

I don't think they would use it without reason. I could see Janitor or Role Cop on Night 1 or 2, but driver? Eh.

We know a Janitor wasn't used.

Can't rule out a Role Cop having been used.

Sorry, how do we know janitor was not used? Is there a special message that indicates it? Or are you just saying that because of the sheer number of town power claims renders it extremely improbable?