MAFIA 79: The Price is Right! [GAME THREAD]

[Chaqa]

OK so now that he went to sleep, let's do the thing.

##Vote Jamiet
##END

[bozotheclown]

Of our 4 remaining town PR claimants, I think 2 are likely mafia.

PE/Bonatogether is one possibility, with or without Chaqa.

PE/sweetandcool or Bonatogether/sweetandcool are also both possibilities.

There are scenarios where Dousing is mafia, but those are remote.

Only PE, only Bonatogether, or PE/Bonatogether/sweetandcool are also possible, but less likely in my opinion.

My guess is PE and Bonatogether are both mafia, so I prefer DKing one of them today and give sweetandcool a chance to protect Dousing.

How likely is it, do you think, that Chaqa is scum?

I think there is a good chance, because with all 3 being mafia, the claims would likely work out well for them, and it seems too coincidental that Chaqa fake claimed scans on a combination of a mafia and a PR or 2 mafia that claimed to target each other N1.

[Bonatogether]

ok gamers it turns out my homework isn't due tonight

[Bonatogether]

Of our 4 remaining town PR claimants, I think 2 are likely mafia.

PE/Bonatogether is one possibility, with or without Chaqa.

PE/sweetandcool or Bonatogether/sweetandcool are also both possibilities.

There are scenarios where Dousing is mafia, but those are remote.

Only PE, only Bonatogether, or PE/Bonatogether/sweetandcool are also possible, but less likely in my opinion.

My guess is PE and Bonatogether are both mafia, so I prefer DKing one of them today and give sweetandcool a chance to protect Dousing.

How likely is it, do you think, that Chaqa is scum?

I think there is a good chance, because with all 3 being mafia, the claims would likely work out well for them, and it seems too coincidental that Chaqa fake claimed scans on a combination of a mafia and a PR or 2 mafia that claimed to target each other N1.

it's not a random triplet

[Bonatogether]

bozometer recalibrate {bona = town, eden = scum}

[Chaqa]

##Unend tho

[rdrivera2005]

Right. It's obviously a terrible fight for me.

So who had the incentive to pick it?

In this instance, it would have been you choosing to say you roleblocked Bona. I'm not sure why you would do that, though, as scum.

No, actually - it was him denying it that started the fight. If he's scum he can choose not to have the fight.

In both cases the scum has to assent to the fight. So why would I do that when I know I lose it?

This is not true. If you are scum and Bona town YOU chosed to fight him as it's obvious a town that wasn't RB will counter claim you.
This kind of bad logic is what makes me feel you are the scum here.

[Bonatogether]

why have votes not moved for hours

[Chaqa]

I'm really not sure what to do here.

[President Eden]

In this instance, it would have been you choosing to say you roleblocked Bona. I'm not sure why you would do that, though, as scum.

No, actually - it was him denying it that started the fight. If he's scum he can choose not to have the fight.

In both cases the scum has to assent to the fight. So why would I do that when I know I lose it?

This is not true. If you are scum and Bona town YOU chosed to fight him as it's obvious a town that wasn't RB will counter claim you.
This kind of bad logic is what makes me feel you are the scum here.

Obviously. (Maybe I didn't explain this well.)

And in the other situation, scum Bona chose the fight by denying that I rb'd him.

Meaning that no matter which one of us you believe is scum, scum chose the fight. If it's me, I chose to lie and say Bona was rb'd when he wasn't. If it's him, he chose to lie and say he wasn't rb'd when he was.

So then I ask you: which story makes more sense? Did I, as scum, knowing I would probably lose a head-to-head fight with Bona, choose a fight with him by claiming to rb him? Or did scum Bona, who knows he probably wins the head-to-head here, choose the fight by claiming I didn't rb him?

Consider the following as well:
- If I'm scum, I claimed with only the knowledge that Chaqa claimed vanilla cop and claimed that Bona and I are not vanilla. If I'm a traitor, I have no idea how many roles there are and no indication that my team has picked any other PRs. Even if I'm goon and know how many roles there are, I have no idea which ones are here. Meanwhile, unless the mafia went very power heavy, Bona was operating with pretty reliable info when he claimed. Even if he's traitor, he's seen vanilla cop (and even a fakeclaim and retraction on it), plus bodyguard, plus roleblocker. Far less risky to guess that there's no tracker and go for that. He can also make a pretty reasonable guess at who wouldn't have moved... or who wouldn't counterclaim his statement that they didn't move.
- If I'm scum, I had the ability to claim bodyguard to shrug off Chaqa's claim without attracting suspicion. So it's not like I was forced into making a high-risk claim that could have been contradicted on multiple fronts (roleblocker cc, any of my claimed roleblocks ccs, someone else who got roleblocked ccs) and which would be virtually assured to lock me into a deathmatch with Bona in which I'm not favored.

~

I still don't understand why people don't want to just verify this mechanically, but I think it's pretty obvious I'm the real PR between Bona and me.

[President Eden]

I'm really not sure what to do here.

If two of the scum are Bona and rdrivera, who do you reckon is #3?

I was... I guess am... fairly sure s&c can't be real. But all it takes is the mafia choosing two powers for him to be real. So I'm starting to reconsider that, but I'm not sure who makes sense.

[President Eden]

offtopic

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWF3gjHE5Mw

[Bonatogether]

No, actually - it was him denying it that started the fight. If he's scum he can choose not to have the fight.

In both cases the scum has to assent to the fight. So why would I do that when I know I lose it?

This is not true. If you are scum and Bona town YOU chosed to fight him as it's obvious a town that wasn't RB will counter claim you.
This kind of bad logic is what makes me feel you are the scum here.

Obviously. (Maybe I didn't explain this well.)

And in the other situation, scum Bona chose the fight by denying that I rb'd him.

Meaning that no matter which one of us you believe is scum, scum chose the fight. If it's me, I chose to lie and say Bona was rb'd when he wasn't. If it's him, he chose to lie and say he wasn't rb'd when he was.

So then I ask you: which story makes more sense? Did I, as scum, knowing I would probably lose a head-to-head fight with Bona, choose a fight with him by claiming to rb him? Or did scum Bona, who knows he probably wins the head-to-head here, choose the fight by claiming I didn't rb him?

Consider the following as well:
- If I'm scum, I claimed with only the knowledge that Chaqa claimed vanilla cop and claimed that Bona and I are not vanilla. If I'm a traitor, I have no idea how many roles there are and no indication that my team has picked any other PRs. Even if I'm goon and know how many roles there are, I have no idea which ones are here. Meanwhile, unless the mafia went very power heavy, Bona was operating with pretty reliable info when he claimed. Even if he's traitor, he's seen vanilla cop (and even a fakeclaim and retraction on it), plus bodyguard, plus roleblocker. Far less risky to guess that there's no tracker and go for that. He can also make a pretty reasonable guess at who wouldn't have moved... or who wouldn't counterclaim his statement that they didn't move.
- If I'm scum, I had the ability to claim bodyguard to shrug off Chaqa's claim without attracting suspicion. So it's not like I was forced into making a high-risk claim that could have been contradicted on multiple fronts (roleblocker cc, any of my claimed roleblocks ccs, someone else who got roleblocked ccs) and which would be virtually assured to lock me into a deathmatch with Bona in which I'm not favored.

~

I still don't understand why people don't want to just verify this mechanically, but I think it's pretty obvious I'm the real PR between Bona and me.

point by point:

why do you claim that you're the one who probably loses? historically you've been able to outtalk most players and i've not been able to sway enough people in most 1v1 situations i've been in. remember celaph vs kgray game? it was me vs macca and i was almost totally right (i had only one person incorrectly scumread and another incorrectly townread, and they were the people i was least confident on), but i totally ate shit that game, whereas you've been able to outtalk almost anyone just through weight of quantity and quality. i struggle to be townread on a large scale in almost every game, when this is the first game i can remember in a while where you failed on a large scale. i'm not sure why you claim that you're likely to lose primae facie without accounting for anything

claiming bodyguard is cringe because it's 'safe'. paradoxically, then, scum are much less likely to make the 'safe' cc because it's predictable

roleblocker ccing is unlikely (about 1/3rd chance of them even existing)

any of your claimed roleblockees ccing is literally just me because snowy died the night you claimed to rb him. now who's convenient?

someone else who got rbed ccing (really the same as the roleblocker ccing, so not sure why this is brought up as an independent consideration)

[Bonatogether]

that's not really point by point but idc

[President Eden]

point by point:

why do you claim that you're the one who probably loses? historically you've been able to outtalk most players and i've not been able to sway enough people in most 1v1 situations i've been in. remember celaph vs kgray game? it was me vs macca and i was almost totally right (i had only one person incorrectly scumread and another incorrectly townread, and they were the people i was least confident on), but i totally ate shit that game, whereas you've been able to outtalk almost anyone just through weight of quantity and quality. i struggle to be townread on a large scale in almost every game, when this is the first game i can remember in a while where you failed on a large scale. i'm not sure why you claim that you're likely to lose primae facie without accounting for anything

I'm speaking specifically about this game, where I was the 2nd wagon just yesterday to Koala and have not secured a lot of townreads from others, and you've only been run up once (near EOD1) and were really only under heavy suspicion from Koala. If anything, you're the one who's not accounting for anything by citing to past games that have no bearing on this one.

claiming bodyguard is cringe because it's 'safe'. paradoxically, then, scum are much less likely to make the 'safe' cc because it's predictable

Right, so it comes down to the temperament of the player. I don't feel like I can comment fairly on this, because while I think it's obvious and well-known that I am conservative and pessimistic to a fault (see last game), I'm obviously also aware of that and capable of gaming it in a one-off situation. I raise it just to get the other townies thinking about it and hoping they get to the right answer.

roleblocker ccing is unlikely (about 1/3rd chance of them even existing)

any of your claimed roleblockees ccing is literally just me because snowy died the night you claimed to rb him. now who's convenient?

someone else who got rbed ccing (really the same as the roleblocker ccing, so not sure why this is brought up as an independent consideration)

These are all meant to be linked considerations. If there's actually a roleblocker then I not only have to worry about being directly counterclaimed by the true roleblocker, but also about having that story be confirmed by whomever that roleblocker may have targeted. For example, even in the world where you and I are actually mafia teammates, so I know you will back me up - and you do - there remains the risk of a true roleblocker blowing us both up. The point is that if I'm scum and fakeclaiming roleblocker here it's incredibly risky and there's a bunch of ways it blows up, even setting aside the fact that it guarantees a thunderdome against you in which I'm not favored. It doesn't make any sense that I can see for me to go this route as mafia.

[Chaqa]

God this would be so much easier if I were mafia

[Chaqa]

One thing I was holding back was that my claim was also meant as a potential traitor test. No one made the connection that I could have been signaling to my teammates (Eden and Bona in this world) who I was.

Because of this, I suspect mafia have recruited the traitor to full member.

Discuss.

[Chaqa]

##Vote sweet

[sweetandcool]

point by point:

why do you claim that you're the one who probably loses? historically you've been able to outtalk most players and i've not been able to sway enough people in most 1v1 situations i've been in. remember celaph vs kgray game? it was me vs macca and i was almost totally right (i had only one person incorrectly scumread and another incorrectly townread, and they were the people i was least confident on), but i totally ate shit that game, whereas you've been able to outtalk almost anyone just through weight of quantity and quality. i struggle to be townread on a large scale in almost every game, when this is the first game i can remember in a while where you failed on a large scale. i'm not sure why you claim that you're likely to lose primae facie without accounting for anything

I'm speaking specifically about this game, where I was the 2nd wagon just yesterday to Koala and have not secured a lot of townreads from others, and you've only been run up once (near EOD1) and were really only under heavy suspicion from Koala. If anything, you're the one who's not accounting for anything by citing to past games that have no bearing on this one.

claiming bodyguard is cringe because it's 'safe'. paradoxically, then, scum are much less likely to make the 'safe' cc because it's predictable

Right, so it comes down to the temperament of the player. I don't feel like I can comment fairly on this, because while I think it's obvious and well-known that I am conservative and pessimistic to a fault (see last game), I'm obviously also aware of that and capable of gaming it in a one-off situation. I raise it just to get the other townies thinking about it and hoping they get to the right answer.

roleblocker ccing is unlikely (about 1/3rd chance of them even existing)

any of your claimed roleblockees ccing is literally just me because snowy died the night you claimed to rb him. now who's convenient?

someone else who got rbed ccing (really the same as the roleblocker ccing, so not sure why this is brought up as an independent consideration)

These are all meant to be linked considerations. If there's actually a roleblocker then I not only have to worry about being directly counterclaimed by the true roleblocker, but also about having that story be confirmed by whomever that roleblocker may have targeted. For example, even in the world where you and I are actually mafia teammates, so I know you will back me up - and you do - there remains the risk of a true roleblocker blowing us both up. The point is that if I'm scum and fakeclaiming roleblocker here it's incredibly risky and there's a bunch of ways it blows up, even setting aside the fact that it guarantees a thunderdome against you in which I'm not favored. It doesn't make any sense that I can see for me to go this route as mafia.

I'm starting to think this game isn't healthy for father/son combos. Give your son a hug next time you see him, he sounds frustrated ):

[rdrivera2005]

One thing I was holding back was that my claim was also meant as a potential traitor test. No one made the connection that I could have been signaling to my teammates (Eden and Bona in this world) who I was.

Because of this, I suspect mafia have recruited the traitor to full member.

Discuss.

Considering the number of PR claims I am pretty confident Mafia have recruited the Traitor. It's probably the only choice I would take from the list they have if I ever choose one. Not taking any role is probably the best option for Mafia and the number of PR claims is the only thing giving me pause to vote Eden right now.

Right now I need Bozo and Damo to evaluate if there is a way we can safely verify if Eden is RBer or not.