MAFIA 79: The Price is Right! [GAME THREAD]

[Jamiet99uk]

I think it's Scenario #2.

##Vote Chaqa.

[damo666]

I was struck by an inconsistency in Chaqa's claim. He says he thinks scum took no powers but his results make that impossible. This indicates he didn't think it through and Dousing is much more believable.

I think you are mistaken about this detail, because in this setup Worcej has told us Mafia Goons return a "Not Vanilla" result. Thus it is mechanically possible for Chaqa to be Town's only PR, and for his "Not Vanilla" results to be confirmed scum (if his claim is true) since every other town player would return "Vanilla".

If Mafia took no roles there would be two non-vanillas in the game, mafia traitor and one town role. Chaqa has claimed non-vanilla and both his scans as non-vanilla. Therefore there is a conflict.

[Jamiet99uk]

I was struck by an inconsistency in Chaqa's claim. He says he thinks scum took no powers but his results make that impossible. This indicates he didn't think it through and Dousing is much more believable.

I think you are mistaken about this detail, because in this setup Worcej has told us Mafia Goons return a "Not Vanilla" result. Thus it is mechanically possible for Chaqa to be Town's only PR, and for his "Not Vanilla" results to be confirmed scum (if his claim is true) since every other town player would return "Vanilla".

If Mafia took no roles there would be two non-vanillas in the game, mafia traitor and one town role. Chaqa has claimed non-vanilla and both his scans as non-vanilla. Therefore there is a conflict.

Again, no, please read my post more carefully.

In this setup Worcej, the GM, has specifically stated Mafia Goons return a "Not Vanilla" result.

I refer you to Page 3 of the sign-up thread.

[Jamiet99uk]

I do think Chaqa is lying but I care about accuracy. Damo, the "conflict" you think you are seeing would exist in a world where Worcej isn't a total weirdo who decided to mess with the very standard Vanilla Cop role in weird, unnecessary ways.

However, in this setup, due to Worcej's wacky rules, it does not, because even if town only has one PR, there are four "non-vanilla" roles, as follows:

- Town's one PR
- Mafia Traitor
- Mafia Goon #2
- Mafia Goon #1

[Jamiet99uk]

Need some comments here from Bona and Chaqa.

It's odd that Chaqa said he was catching up but then basically vanished without addressing the Counter Claim.

[Jamiet99uk]

Rdr and Bozo also need to react to this new flood of information.

[Jamiet99uk]

President Eden why are you endvoting?

[Dousing]

It's odd that Chaqa said he was catching up but then basically vanished without addressing the Counter Claim.

That kinda implies caught-mafia imo.

I mean I totally get Chaqa being busy and not wanting this forum to monopolize their free time but I still think a true town PR would be picking up a more fight or be able to pull out more proof that their thinking has been changed because they are the vanilla cop.

So far this is literally the ONLY evidence Chaqa has to prove they are the vanilla cop:

Night 1 I scanned Bona. He came back not vanilla, hence the first post on Day 2. I've been thinking about this a lot and I firmly believed he was another PR until the math doesn't seem to make sense.

[Provided, Chaqa gives more *information* about a Eden and a N2 scan, but there’s no evidence of their behavior actually changing in the light of new evidence.]

Keep in mind the four non-vanilla roles Chaqa’s scan could identified are these :

Mafia goon
Mafia goon
Mafia traitor
Town PR

Chaqa tells us they “firmly believed” that Bona was town on D2 and therefore is more willing to accept the 1/4 chance that they are the town PR (keep in mind a second PR wasn’t even guaranteed at that point; Chaqa is working with information that should’ve be available to them at this point) than a 3/4 chance they are part of the mafia.

I think this is unlikely and I also believe that if Chaqa was truly a vanilla cop they would have attempted a far more through analysis/questioning of Bona rather than assume they are simply a town PR (something which Chaqa has yet to justify btw).

It’s far more likely that Chaqa decided to simply claim vanilla cop and retrofit their previous posts to align with their new identity



This in mind, we know Chaqa has knowledge of two things:
- how many abilites the mafia took (and more importantly how many town PR’s there are)
- who the other members of the mafia are

Thus, there are two ways to interpret Chaqa’s scans as cop: 1. they “scanned” a townie and a mafia or 2. they “scanned” two townies.

Neither of these gambles involve Chaqa making a “lucky guess” or taking a gamble

Scenario 1. Chaqa’s false mafia partner can simply false claim as well (no luck involved)

Scenario 2. Assuming that there are two town PR’s, 2/6 of all townies have a special role. Chaqa has a fairly high chance of randomly stumbling across a townies with a role after picking two townies to “scan”. if they don’t Chaqa can just argue that they found two members of the mafia. (No luck involved)

[Chaqa]

Need some comments here from Bona and Chaqa.

It's odd that Chaqa said he was catching up but then basically vanished without addressing the Counter Claim.

Please refer to the time of day in the US.

I woke up, read a few posts, and began working.

I'll get to you guys shortly.

[Dousing]

Need some comments here from Bona and Chaqa.

It's odd that Chaqa said he was catching up but then basically vanished without addressing the Counter Claim.

Please refer to the time of day in the US.

I woke up, read a few posts, and began working.

I'll get to you guys shortly.

Disregard the first part of my argument. The rest of it I fully stand by.

[Chaqa]

This is going to be a long one. First off, everything I said in this post is true and I believe:

You may not believe this until a few more games here, but I'm just an incredibly chaotic person in general. This is my normal meta, though I will admit I am not finding myself very effective this game. But I feel like I've been right on my town reads, which is my stronger aspect of my game.

Snowy dying isn't surprising to me. I think the reason he died was because he was a towny who was going against the grain.

One other thing I'm wary of is anyone saying "x is widely scumread" because all it takes is the mafia making a concerted effort to scumread someone to make someone suddenly be the "common scumread" and put them on the defensive.

Anyway, leading into my general view on the game at the moment, with thinking about the lack of surprising night actions. I think the mafia didn't add any additional abilities.

I think for this to be true, there must be at least one powerful, calming voice on the scumteam. Snowy was a potential suspect for that, but Eden is the #1 suspect IMO.

I'm pretty firm in my townread on Damo. Bozo and Dousing are also likely town.

So my thinking currently is the scumteam is probably:
- Eden
- Bona or Sweet ( I don't think both)
- Jamie or Rivera

The following post is pure fiction. I'm not the vanilla cop, and I do fully expect to be daykilled today for this dayclaim. It was a calculated risk.

I believed pretty firmly that there is a massive fuckery of reads going on, in that everyone's reads are bad and we need a giant volt to reset us. So I made a really loose play, based on the following beliefs:

1. There was likely no more than 1 town PR
2. Eden was almost certainly scum
3. I thought my "guilty scan on Bofa" was justification enough of my N1 scan to give the play some credibility and maybe get some insights into Bona and Eden

I decided that the best way to test this out would be to fakeclaim a PR. Looking through the list, vanilla cop felt most suitable, and I didn't have any reads on anyone being this role (if I had been reading closer, maybe I would have noticed Dousing, but oh well).

I REALLY wish Bona had been around to get his reaction to Eden's RB claim, because that is a huge piece of info, but I think even without that we can analyze this all and solve the game. But one small note before we begin. I want to back up to my initial "I've got some proof" post for some reactions:

I have some very good proof that Eden is scum

##vote Eden

I have some very good proof that Eden is scum

doubt

I have some very good proof that Eden is scum

Please enlighten us.

##Vote Chaqa until then.

I think all three of these reactions are fair. Damo thought I was town, so he believed me. Eden is saying doubt because he knows he's town (if he is the Roleblocker). Jamie is being Jamie.

So keep that in mind as we go forward.

I feel pretty strongly that Damo is town.

I had some more concrete thoughts on why with regard to Day 1, but mostly I feel like Day 1 didn't feel like mafia cared much to move their votes around since everyone was town.

I know you feel strongly about it, but if you have time I encourage you to look at Damo's posts again. If they are not vanilla cop, I am legitimately confused by their play.

Lastly, what power(s) do you think Mafia would take? If Eden or Bona are actually powered instead of Mafia, then that would mean Mafia took a power.

S&C asked a very interesting question. Let's look at the modifications:

1-Shot Faction Janitor
Role Cop*
JOAT* (1 shot Strongman, 1 shot Ninja, 1 shot Drive)
Scumchat Daytalk (passive ability)
Recruit Traitor as Mafia Goon

I think if mafia had Janitor, they'd have used it already.

Daychat doesn't seem worth it in exchange for a town PR. Goon neither.

So I think if mafia took a role, it's Role Cop or JOAT.

Given that both Eden and Dousing have claimed a PR, that means either:
1. Mafia did indeed choose an extra role.
2. One of Dousing and Eden is mafia.

Eden, Bona, and Ligma
Part of the reason I chose Eden for my fakeclaim is I thought he would respond quickly. Eden pretty quickly posts this:

n1 rb Bona because he seemed like VT and I wanted to be able to confirm myself later.
n2 rb snowy because I thought he would carry the kill.

Bona either confirms he was rb'd n1 or confirms he's scum

Bona's first D2 post:

interesting

While I would like Bona to confirm, I think this could be due to the roleblock. I don't think Bona would find ghug dying N1 to be interesting, tbh.

Eden says Bona can "confirm he was roleblocked or confirm he is scum," which makes sense if I am the VCop, but it also makes me somewhat worried that Eden-Bona are a scumpair and the plan here is for Eden to bus Bona for clout.

It's a play I could see Eden making and one Bona would likely go along with, since last time they were scum together they did the opposite, with Bona bussing Eden. Sweet picked up on this as well pretty quickly.

Of course, since I'm not the VCop, this is all thought experiment, but Eden's followup posts seem genuine to me and I suspect he is the Roleblocker after all.

Dousing
So yeah, my B on this, I wouldn't have done this if I thought there was actually a VCop out there. However, Dousing has done us a great service if his Not Vanilla scan on S&C is true.

I don't think he has any reason to lie about this either. If he is scum, the only reason to claim this is to get into a CC battle and kill me. When that is resolved, if I were the VCop, my results would indict Bona, so Dousing is clearly the VCop.

What's REALLY interesting is that S&C doesn't even address this scan in his followup post to Dousing:

-- snipped

I will of course spend some time examining all of the role claimers. But I'm less inclined to believe you simply because I haven't seen any evidence of you doing anything except tunneling on me and Bona. Plus, you haven't mentioned who you scanned N2.

Damo also notices this:

##unvote

So much info.

I was struck by an inconsistency in Chaqa's claim. He says he thinks scum took no powers but his results make that impossible. This indicates he didn't think it through and Dousing is much more believable.

However, I find it intriguing that sweet is voting Dousing but hasn't actually confirmed or denied Dousing's scan claim that sweet is non vanilla.

If Eden is to be believed the scum team appears to be Chaqa Bona sweet.

If Eden is lying then it is Eden Dousing and one of {Jamie, bozo, rdr}.

Id like to hear from sweet wet vanilla status and ofc we need to hear from Bona re RB.

I guess today has to be Chaqa v Dousing (surely one is lying scum).

I was townreading both but Dousing's claim seems more believable.

##vote Chaqa

FWIW Dousing totally calls me out on most of this in his post #1808

[Chaqa]

Anyway, my conclusion at this moment:
Bonatogether
bozotheclown
damo666
Dousing
Jamiet99uk
President Eden
rdrivera2005
sweetandcool

With 9 players left, we have two shots. If one needs to be on me, that's fine, but the following one should absolutely be on Sweet.

I would of course prefer to kill Sweet first, but I don't mind either way, just if you're going to kill me at least hammer me today.

[Chaqa]

Yellow means I townread them, forgot to label.

I think it's S&C, Bona, and rivera, personally.

[rdrivera2005]

Ok. A lot to think about.

My first reaction was to believe Chaqa, but Eden post made me consider it was just smoke screen and after Dousing claim I am pretty sure Chaqa is scum.

And I have a feeling Eden is scum too. This kinda justify this play as if there isn't a real vanilla cop (which is a high chance if there is only one town PR) we will probably clear one of them when we flip the other. Or we believe both and just flip Bona. Still want to hear from Bona before locking in this theory.

And if Dousing is the real vanilla cop then S&C is also scum.

Anyway, I looks so easy that I am doubting it a bit. Need Bozo to make an analysis on this and check if my theory makes sense.

[President Eden]

##unend

ok I’ll read

[rdrivera2005]

Anyway, my conclusion at this moment:
Bonatogether
bozotheclown
damo666
Dousing
Jamiet99uk
President Eden
rdrivera2005
sweetandcool

With 9 players left, we have two shots. If one needs to be on me, that's fine, but the following one should absolutely be on Sweet.

I would of course prefer to kill Sweet first, but I don't mind either way, just if you're going to kill me at least hammer me today.

If you are town ad fake claimed at mylo I won't ever play with you again.

##vote Chaqa
##end

[Chaqa]

Anyway, my conclusion at this moment:
Bonatogether
bozotheclown
damo666
Dousing
Jamiet99uk
President Eden
rdrivera2005
sweetandcool

With 9 players left, we have two shots. If one needs to be on me, that's fine, but the following one should absolutely be on Sweet.

I would of course prefer to kill Sweet first, but I don't mind either way, just if you're going to kill me at least hammer me today.

If you are town ad fake claimed at mylo I won't ever play with you again.

##vote Chaqa
##end

It's not mylo...

[President Eden]

wait no way we’re at mylo right

did I math wrong

[President Eden]

Lol same energy

[Chaqa]

I will fully admit I didn't check the math before I did this, though.