MAFIA 39 - GAME THREAD

[yavuzovic]

Why me! I'm little busy, I will come back and ask why people come to me?

[rdrivera2005]

Well, I had some time and re-read Flash and Durga considering Brain's theories. I still think Flash is a stretch. He looks the same as last game and his Moscow shoot as scum only make sense if Durga is also scum.

And this is a possibility, re-reading her seems that Brain have a point, I don't see much effort other then defending himself and calling other people stupid. The reasons that makes me think she isn't scum is that I can't see her and Ghug on the same team and that I don't believe she will claim the cannon at N0 that way. All things considered, I still think she isn't a good choice to lynch now.

I still think that we have a better chance to hit scum on Ghug. ##vote Ghug

[y2kjbk]

So right now, my thinking on Durga and flash is that Durga is town that wanted to help town coming forward with her cannon N0, and flash is scum with a cannon that saw brainbomb's guilty scan as an opportunity for town-cred. ##VOTE flash

[y2kjbk]

If flash was actually town, why wouldn't he have let Durga, who already claimed her cannon, see if she wanted to blast MF, and he could stay hidden?

[rdrivera2005]

So right now, my thinking on Durga and flash is that Durga is town that wanted to help town coming forward with her cannon N0, and flash is scum with a cannon that saw brainbomb's guilty scan as an opportunity for town-cred. ##VOTE flash

Do you really think the town cred he got (not much) is worth losing a hidden cannon that can be used later to shoot a clear? It's possible, yes, but it's not likely. I don't see reason to pursue this kind of theory now.

[rdrivera2005]

If flash was actually town, why wouldn't he have let Durga, who already claimed her cannon, see if she wanted to blast MF, and he could stay hidden?

A bit of a cross post. I think I should let him defend himself....

[y2kjbk]

See my next post.

[y2kjbk]

My apologies for not communicating much. I didn't want to say too much the first night lest I give away that I have a gun. And we had a bit of a family tragedy Thursday night...so this hasn't been my highest priority.

Having said that I really didn't like Xorxes plan for cannon holders to announce themselves. It made no sense...especially from such an experienced player (it feels a bit scummy). I don't understand how anyone could possibly believe there is a chance I am still scum (how would giving town two chances to kill scum on the very first day have benefited scum??)...but perhaps in Squiggs case he is just displaying his reachy normalness.

Having said this, I probably got too excited about my cannon. There was no reason why I needed to shoot that early. I could have left it 24 hours to see who tried to discredit BB (a common scum strategy is to cast doubt on the bleeding obvious). It also would have given some time to see whether Durga's cannon claim was real. I haven't gone back and checked - did Durga reclaim the cannon before or after I shot? If she doesn't have the cannon, the person who does have the remaining cannon knows she is now lying.

After shooting MF and lurking for 22.5 hours, this was flash's post to set up his go-after-xorxes i-shot-MF-i'm-clear plan going forward.

[y2kjbk]

Personally, concerning Durga's retraction of her cannon claim towards the end of EON0, I thought it was clear at the time her retraction was false to mess a bit with scum finalizing their night actions.

[xorxes]

Well, I had some time and re-read Flash and Durga considering Brain's theories. I still think Flash is a stretch. He looks the same as last game and his Moscow shoot as scum only make sense if Durga is also scum.

How does scum Flash shooting Moscow make any sense if Durga is scum? If they were going to waste a cannonshot on a teammate for towncred wouldn't they have wasted Durga's that was already outed instead of using Flash's that was hidden?

[xorxes]

After shooting MF and lurking for 22.5 hours, this was flash's post to set up his go-after-xorxes i-shot-MF-i'm-clear plan going forward.

I didn't feel that. I think he was really offended that I suggested that the cannon holder that didn't claim was likely scum.

In any case, we shouldn't be focusing on flash at this point, it would be silly to lynch him now.

[damo666]

Birthday card:

Didn't use N0 as wanted more info to consider

Didn't send to townclear because lack of value and danger they could be NK

Chose RHK because he asked for it and I wanted to gauge his reaction and speed of reveal. Thought the reveal less open than it could have been. I'm a null on him.

[xorxes]

Personally, concerning Durga's retraction of her cannon claim towards the end of EON0, I thought it was clear at the time her retraction was false to mess a bit with scum finalizing their night actions.

Yes.

[damo666]

Imo remaining scumpair are 2 of

ghug
ND
RHK
Vecna

##vote ND

If ND town he'd be no loss anyway due to lack of commitment.

[damo666]

I want to vote Ghug, but with the slime in play I am not sure it's a good idea to pile oh him early.

If slime was with scum wouldn't they have rescued Squigs? (Unless TB also scum which I vm doubt).

Getting a tad worried about you rdrivera. Not three times in a row surely?

[Vecna]

It's not OMGUS (or at least not only OMGUS). I can't really believe you list me, ND and Snowy as your scum list.

Why not? If everyone else has given me at least some town vibes, and you three haven't, why is it so hard to believe that you three would be my scumpool?

Also, your reaction to my push on you and Squigs was to scumread me and vote Squigs, which seems off.

What gave you the idea that I voted for Squigs in reaction to your "push"? (You never really pushed either of us, you just expressed some mild suspicion of us.)

I voted for Squigs after seeing his reads list that was full of crap.

I also dislike the way you was focusing mostly on mechanics and it's how I remember you when we were scum together.

Yes, that's becoming something of a trope by now. I got more out of my cannon plan discussion than out of the Path of Exile or the Falcons vs Eagles discussions on N0 though. What else was there to discuss N0 if not mechanics?

But anyway, have your views evolved after my push for Squigs? I doubt Squigs would have been lynched if I hadn't pushed him, and I really did push, unlike you who merely voted for him. Or do you maintain that I'm still only focused on mechanics?

I have pretty solid townreads on Flash, Vecna and Durga (Brain is clear town).

What has Vecna done that makes you think he's town?

I have townreads also on Damo, Tom and y2k.

Me too.

Scumlean on you and Ghug.

I can be convinced about ghug.

Null on: ND, Yav, Demon and Worcej

Demon and especially worcej are pretty obvtown, but OK.

Why do you think Demon and Worcej are obvtown?

I don't see scum Vecna sheeping Brain the way he did. Also, I liked his vote on Ghug. The only scumpoint to him was his shenanigans with Jamiet, can see scum Vecna doing that to change focus.

Also, you put me in the lurkers pool, but I have provided a lot more content that players that posted a lot more.

Why would I try to end the day on an unvote if my scumbuddy squigs was on the chopping block? Scum Vecna either busses there for towncred, or tries to push the other running wagon. Town Vecna who has is clueless whether one of the leading wagons is scum acts the way he did.

[Vecna]

Damo and ND are top scumreads.

Brain is as close to hardclear as you can get.
Flash and Durga are solidly town.
Tom is pretty well Town i believe.
Most others I don't have strong off the cuff opinions about. Best I've got:
Yavu needs to make up for snowy's uselessness. If Yavu survives the night, he may very well be scum instead of ND.
Ghug is a asshole, but I'm leaning town on him.
Y2k comes off town, but I may be overvaluing his analysis.
Vecna is intentionally trying to avoid being part of the game and attacking based on being called on it, dirty-null.
Xorx looks better than early.
Meh on worc and rd.

What is giving you the impression im intentionally trying to avoid being part of the game RHK?

[Vecna]

I cannot fathom why I was roleblocked when I shot the cannon

Were you actually genuine in your gun claim? Or was there some roleswapping shenanigans going on? I did have a feeling that something was off with your claim. If you didnt actually have the gun, its probably wise to out that stuff since the RB would indicate that the chaqa shot was shot by scum.

Low likelyhood this actually happened, but you never know. Would at least make the rb make sense.

[Vecna]

Y2k writes- yea cannon holder should shoot squiggs.
Durga writes "Now were talking"

This implies durga agrees with y2k statement.

Then durga never again considers shooting squiggs
Never even posts a single read on squiggs
At EOD as squiggs is at 6 she writes "this sucks"

Then squiggs busses her

Sounds like I am sheeping, but I've been not 100% confident in Durga being town since the shot was fired and how it all went down.

Quick summary: Durga floats a soft claim early that she has a gun on N0, doesn't get hit by mafia (which was weird). Then on D1, waited until the other cannon fired before she did, which was flash. Why would you wait when you were given a guilty from BB? If he lied, we has lynch and also another shot.

Then we have the target choice, which was 'willy-nilly' and was due to only one post from Chaqa... it just seemed like 'wtf?' when we all had better targets. Why not a wagon? Why someone completely random? It just seemed fake as shit.

Then we have Squig's read of Durga:

Durga - Claims cannon and pledges to shoot it. Retracts, no cannon shot, then reclaims. Whether scum or town, was probably waiting for a better shot. The playstyle seems pretty genuine though, hard to see scum be this ballsy. Slight town pending what happens with the cannon.

I read this again, now knowing he's scum, and think this was a way to try to enforce fake town-cred that I think is entirely possible with the cannon.

I started one wagon off and was right, so how about I try again. Durga, I know you wont defend this time since you've said it, and you came on really strong under pressure last time and you're now calling it a conspiracy. I think you're trying to play it up as a wasted vote, but I want confirmation of your actual role, considering we have 3 town clears now. ##vote Durga

What a weird post.

[Vecna]

Did Vecna say when he would be able to participate a bit more...or is he going to be really quiet like this all game?

Ill participate when I can. As stated in the signup thread though, ill be leaving on a trip tomorrow, so more inactivity is probably to follow. Then again, I might find dull moments at the poker tables.