M1024: Panhandlin' [GAME THREAD]

[Jamiet99uk]

Alternative plan:

1. Flum shoots Bozo now.
2 ???
3. Profit!

[Jamiet99uk]

On reflection I think claiming Doc makes Rdrivera marginally more likely to be town.

My logic is that in a setup with *unknown* PRs, if you're scum then claiming VT is actually a safer bet than claiming a standard town PR like Doc or Cop, because a VT claim carries zero risk of counter claim.

[bozotheclown]

Uhhh...



Past Bozo from 2 pages ago strongly disagrees with Present Bozo? Quite Suspicious!

In the one case, both mafia and town would have a gun, in the second, only mafia would. Also, Fluminator pointed out how unbalanced the first case would be.

I don't understand what you are talking about in the first sentence – we have all known that Town has had a gun since D1 when Flum shot Kak, did we not? In all cases, because that's already happened as a proven fact. I am used to much clearer Bozo logic, still Suspicious.

Fair enough re second sentence and will take that into consideration.

You originally asked if Fluminator could be mafia, which would mean that he shot Kakarroto as mafia so he could claim it later for town credit, since no one else has claimed the shot.

[bozotheclown]

I am not sure that is going to provide much help. The mafia could target someone beside you even if rdrivera is town, and if rdrivera is mafia they could no-kill and have rdrivera claim he saved you.

Yes, I wouldn't rule rdr as confirmed town if someone else dies. I'd simply reanalyze with the new info.
But it does bring a confirmed townie deeper into the game which means better odds as a potential suspect gets killed.

Hold on folks.

I thought that last game, when Brainbomb was saved by rdr he woke up to find himself covered in bloody bandages etc neat flavor text. Would it not be clear to the still-alive Flum whether or not Flum is covered in bandages?

##CALL GM for reals this time – could you please confirm what the Save Target sees if the Doctor saves someone in this game? Same as last game or any different?

I don't think we will know the answer to this because it is a closed setup, but I think it is more common for the saved player to know he was saved, so I agree it would be suspicious for a mafia fake claiming doctor to claim to save a player that he did not.

[bozotheclown]

How sure you are about Bozo being town? I think he was really eager to get me misskilled.

Other possibilities are Worcej and Koala. Worcej is having a low impact game, which could be scum. And Koala is Koala.

Why do you think I wanted to DK you more than everyone else who voted for you? I prefer to DK worcej today, but I think your claim under pressure makes you more likely to be mafia, not less.

Well, there were 3 people hammering me so I have no option then claim, I agree that as Mafia I should probably claim too, but reading this as more Mafia doesn't make sense. And you were one of the hammers, which isn't your usual play. You are not trigger happy. You said to wait for me to talk buy still hammer, which looks like hoping someone else hit the trigger before I came back.

I was the second player to vote END, which was to force you to claim before EOD, and I removed my END vote after the third vote.

[Hamilton Brian]

Rdr, can you vote worcej and keep it there? Can you just vote who I want today in return of me not shooting you?
That would put 3 votes on worcej and only need one more to kill him eod.

To Brian/Jamiet/Koala
I won't be super active tomorrow but I want an interesting gamestate going into it. I do have a townread on bozo but I admit I could be being buddied right now - no one is perfect.

So if all 3 of you decide bozo is sus I'll cede to that decision, but if one of you thinks worcej is more suspicious than bozo we take out worcej instead. (ideally you guys continue to question them both throughout the day. I wish I could be around more tomorrow)

Just catching up this morning but I am wondering if it's better you choose two targets. We go and split the vote there. You make the shot. People move to the next. Keeps it in your hands, but we also get info.

[Hamilton Brian]

Which really requires us all to be around at EOD.

[bozotheclown]

Yeah Rdr we forced you to claim.

And Bozo, you know that, so once again you appear to be manipulating the narrative.

I don't know what you are referring to, I voted END to force rdrivera to claim and I did not claim something different. I asked why rdrivera apparently found my voting or him more suspicious that anyone else who was voting for him.

[rdrivera2005]

I'd lean towards letting you live today on the condition you "docsave" me tonight.

Who do you think is mafia? Who should we vote?

How sure you are about Bozo being town? I think he was really eager to get me misskilled.

Other possibilities are Worcej and Koala. Worcej is having a low impact game, which could be scum. And Koala is Koala.

Low impact game? What is the grading scale for my games that I am measured against?

This reminds me of the one time Eden scummed me for not being “as good as I normally was according to him”.

I don't like pushing you (or Jamiet for example) to be nasty or enter berzerk mode to prove you are town as this make the game worst for everyone but I expect you to be more assertive. You scumread me since D1 but didn't made a strong push, it seems like shading and it worked as I was going to be misskilled.

[rdrivera2005]

Maybe, it seems just as likely as town having a conditional 2-shot vig and a standard doctor.

Could be. I don't buy his claim, but I see a win/win where he either "protects" me and I make it to final 5 as a confirmed town or I die and he's confirmed scum that way.

That said, I'm not sure who the other scum is 100%. And I suspect you'll be a miskill before the game is done so there's not much room for error lol.

I favour it being worcej, but I could see koalascum world

rdrivera would just claim to be RBed in that case.

It seems very questionable that rdrivera claimed doctor under pressure of being hammered, then everyone else claimed VT. However, reviewing D2, I think a worcej/HB combination is possible, where the plan was for worcej to pocket Jamiet and HB to pocket me, while they bus each other.

If I had a gun I would just shoot worcej today.

I don't know but this post looks so like scum Bozo telling what will happen next night.

[rdrivera2005]

No one's been roleblocked yet. Rdr couldn't use that as an excuse.

It is not unreasonable for the mafia to have been RBing the NK.

And now you say that could be a RB in play. So, ignore my last message.

[bozotheclown]

On reflection I think claiming Doc makes Rdrivera marginally more likely to be town.

My logic is that in a setup with *unknown* PRs, if you're scum then claiming VT is actually a safer bet than claiming a standard town PR like Doc or Cop, because a VT claim carries zero risk of counter claim.

In this case, though, rdrivera was likely going to be the DK if he did not claim to be a PR. I think the fact that there has been only one other PR claim is the thing that most supports rdrivera's claim being real, but I am not sure if 2 PRs is any more likely that 1.

[bozotheclown]

No one's been roleblocked yet. Rdr couldn't use that as an excuse.

It is not unreasonable for the mafia to have been RBing the NK.

And now you say that could be a RB in play. So, ignore my last message.

If you are the doctor, the mafia having a RB seems reasonable, and there have only been 2 NKs, so if the mafia does have a RB, I would expect the mafia to RB the NK so that they do not have town players claiming to be RBed. However, that would mean the mafia could RB you if you, and we have no way of verifying your RB claim.

[Hamilton Brian]

How helpful would it be for us to list our preferred pairs? One being the vig shot, the other the day kill. I think it could offer something, or maybe not. I'm thinking small.

However, at rivera's claim there were two wagons. Assuming the validity of the PR claims, we've got a possibilities.

On Rivera were Koala, bozo, worcej.

On bozo were myself and jamie.

[bozotheclown]

How helpful would it be for us to list our preferred pairs? One being the vig shot, the other the day kill. I think it could offer something, or maybe not. I'm thinking small.

However, at rivera's claim there were two wagons. Assuming the validity of the PR claims, we've got a possibilities.

On Rivera were Koala, bozo, worcej.

On bozo were myself and jamie.

I always think it is good to force mafia to give their top scum reads, or avoid the question, which sometimes happens. I still think worcej/rdrivera is the most likely. With the closed setup, rdrivera's claim does not mean much, and I am not sure I buy him protecting Fluminator over ghug N1. Also, if he protected Fluminator N1, he should have been protecting damo N2.

[bozotheclown]

How helpful would it be for us to list our preferred pairs? One being the vig shot, the other the day kill. I think it could offer something, or maybe not. I'm thinking small.

However, at rivera's claim there were two wagons. Assuming the validity of the PR claims, we've got a possibilities.

On Rivera were Koala, bozo, worcej.

On bozo were myself and jamie.

Who are your top 2 scum suspects?

[worcej]

There is pretty much no chance Fluminator is lying, right? The setup would make no sense balance-wise.

Bozo is a high-info flip. If Jamiet vs Bozo was theater they deserve lots credit for it – so I reckon that's an unpairing. Sheds some interesting light on HB whom I still suspect at Misdirecting too.

I am OK with worcej too, I only have 1 game of reference of him as a player but seems a tad different from last time. Not sure how much of it is travel or what to make of it.

Finally, can someone experienced please comment on my thoughts about this game being originally planned as a Mini and growing from there. Can we infer something about the setup / roles from there? I can see the world where the Mini would have the cool Conditional Vig role vs 2 Mafias and that's it... and then as it grew the Doctor and 3rd Mafia got added or something like that.

But I have never played a Mini or a Closed setup before so who knows.

Regarding Flum and rdr - Of the 2, Flum is more believable than the rdr due to timing and authenticity of the claim (recall D1 he thought kak had softed vig). I do not think either should be DKed right now since we are on the final MK.

Thinking on the setup - a doctor and a conditional vig are entirely plausible as town’s only roles, but I would assume that the scum have a PR of some sort in play. It may be one that can target people to figure out if they are PRs or not. Honestly, scum PRs could be a wide variety here and it’s probably pointless WIFOM.

In regards to setup size and PR structure, it’s complicated. The easiest thing as games grow in size is to add VT and Goons to keep a close 3:1 ratio of town:scum. Adding PRs takes a review of the powers in play and what would happen in best and worst case scenarios and how likely they were to occur

[bozotheclown]

If Fluminator is not going to shoot today, I think the best option is to go with his plan to give rdrivera a chance to protect him N3 and DK worcej today.

[Fluminator]

At the work conference.

If people genuinely want me to shoot today I need two people to quickly vote me

[worcej]

How helpful would it be for us to list our preferred pairs? One being the vig shot, the other the day kill. I think it could offer something, or maybe not. I'm thinking small.

However, at rivera's claim there were two wagons. Assuming the validity of the PR claims, we've got a possibilities.

On Rivera were Koala, bozo, worcej.

On bozo were myself and jamie.

I always think it is good to force mafia to give their top scum reads, or avoid the question, which sometimes happens. I still think worcej/rdrivera is the most likely. With the closed setup, rdrivera's claim does not mean much, and I am not sure I buy him protecting Fluminator over ghug N1. Also, if he protected Fluminator N1, he should have been protecting damo N2.

I find hypothesizing the N2 doctor target openly to be rather scummy atm, but I will say damo would never have made my list of targets on N2 for saves if I was the doctor.