M1024: Panhandlin' [GAME THREAD]

[Fluminator]

Rdr, I'm in the same grounds as you in town reading Kak and scum reading TFB so I'm not judging you, but on paper it is still scummy in that's all you've done so can you be more significant and catch some scum or something so I can rule you out.

Again we don't actually have that many miskilled available

Agree, I can see why I am on the suspects list. I wasn't around for the last part of the day but after reading the thread I doubt I would have changed my mind.

We probably have 2 miskills left (considering 2 Mafia left). Not that bad assuming we have some PRs and some obvious town.

Do you read through every post as town? Or do you skim past people you townread like I do?

[Jamiet99uk]

It's called a ghugslip

That's when Ghug does something that reveals he is....

GHUG!

[Jamiet99uk]

Or do you skim past people you townread like I do?

Why do you do that?

Don't you want to know what your townreads are thinking? If you are right about them being town, shouldn't you pay attention to their reads, their votes, their questions?

[Fluminator]

Or do you skim past people you townread like I do?

Why do you do that?

Don't you want to know what your townreads are thinking? If you are right about them being town, shouldn't you pay attention to their reads, their votes, their questions?

Skim doesn't mean you don't read them! Just.... quicker

[Jamiet99uk]

Or do you skim past people you townread like I do?

Why do you do that?

Don't you want to know what your townreads are thinking? If you are right about them being town, shouldn't you pay attention to their reads, their votes, their questions?

Skim doesn't mean you don't read them! Just.... quicker

So you're asking Rdrivera whether his reading speed changes based on his suspicions of the person he is reading...

Ok. Weird question, bro. But ok.

[Jamiet99uk]

Bonatogether, Hamilton Brian, Rdrivera, Bozo and Worcej are all too busy in the Mafia Discord to post here, I notice.

[Hamilton Brian]

Bonatogether, Hamilton Brian, Rdrivera, Bozo and Worcej are all too busy in the Mafia Discord to post here, I notice.

Thanks; I just got home. Nice try though.

[Jamiet99uk]

Bonatogether, Hamilton Brian, Rdrivera, Bozo and Worcej are all too busy in the Mafia Discord to post here, I notice.

Thanks; I just got home. Nice try though.

The fact I listed 5 people might lead you to assume that I was not being entirely serious.

[Jamiet99uk]

Based on everyone's interaction with Kakarroto, I would say Bonatogether, damo, Fluminator, HB, Jamiet, KoalaAttack, and rdrivera seem more likely to be town (compared to not considering their interaction with Kakarroto). However, that only leaves ghug, worcej, and myself.

If betting was allowed, I would bet a large bacon & turbot pizza that there is at least one scum in that pool.

[rdrivera2005]

Rdr, I'm in the same grounds as you in town reading Kak and scum reading TFB so I'm not judging you, but on paper it is still scummy in that's all you've done so can you be more significant and catch some scum or something so I can rule you out.

Again we don't actually have that many miskilled available

Agree, I can see why I am on the suspects list. I wasn't around for the last part of the day but after reading the thread I doubt I would have changed my mind.

We probably have 2 miskills left (considering 2 Mafia left). Not that bad assuming we have some PRs and some obvious town.

Do you read through every post as town? Or do you skim past people you townread like I do?

I try to read every post as any alignment. I use the bot to read at work because the site is blocked so sometimes I lose some context. I use the cell to post, and that's another reason why I don't post that much.

[ghug]

I am happy to. How am I being opaque? I am 100% transparent about what I'm doing.

I claim the PR of the Townue Heel. I will troll and rile up the Mafia, and get them to engage. More engagement == mode data for the rest of us to analyze. Just like the mystery AwesomeNinja who shot Kak (way to go!).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heel_(pro ... wrestling)

I respect the desire to provoke reactions and I respect that you'd be upset at the experienced players for not getting on board with your troll, but:
1) you can't expect only mafia to be upset with your trolling. If it's intended to piss people off it's going to upset townies too, so you have to be ready to analyze the reactions and draw nuanced conclusions.
2) you're not drawing any sort of conclusions that suggest desire to solve, which is an important component of this process.
3) I believe you're clever enough to get a sense for all of this, and what you're doing obfuscates your role for anyone who's played with you thus far, so I'm going to be disinclined to give you a pass for much of anything here.

1) Agreed 100%, and I fully expect to catch some Townies in my reaction net. I am going to try and analyze the reactions and draw nuanced conclusions indeed.

2) Really? I disagree. I just pointed out a neat nuanced conclusion about you – you stated that you were making decisions on my alignment based on whether or not I was around for The Shooting of The Evil Kak. And I pointed out, quite nuanced-ly, that a self-proclaimed experienced players to be well aware of the fact that GMs process requests when they see / read them, which could be much later after the PM with the orders to shoot someone. And I think it's Suspicious from you.

Now, tell me ghug – are you telling me I'm not drawing any sort of conclusions and conveniently ignoring the above example because this was a Mafia slip while pretending to act Townie and now you are just trying to paper over it and quickly move on? I think it's a legit conclusion from your reaction, and a potential Mafia slip.

I invite others to please chime in! Of course ghug is going to say it wasn't a slip, that in itself is a given.

3) You are 100% correct. I do believe that I explicitly and clearly stated that the rationale for the gimmick was to avoid folks using my meta from past games – because Bona has warned me I'm going to get D1 voted for my Mafia deeds in our Mafia chat last game. And I stated this before this game stated, committing to it regardless of my alignment in advance. Now I am simply following through as promised, which as rdrivera correctly called it is ironically my true meta.

1. Cool
2. The fact that information is imperfect doesn't mean it's not useful. You're drawing a false dichotomy. I don't know how this would be a scumslip regardless. I can't imagine the mafia has greater knowledge than they should about whether you shot Kak unless you're one of them.
3. You didn't state in detail how you were going to do this. I don't suspect you for following through, I suspect you for how you've followed through.

[Hamilton Brian]

Things we know positively. TheFlyingBoat was town. Kak was mafia. We don’t know how or why Kak died. Some observations. Ghug referred back to Kak’s own vote; made the vote on Koala and cast a little shade on Bona. I am not sure that makes Bona look Bona-fide good. Keep an eye on, though.

Ghug then suggests that both Flum and Damo were reading Kak as town. My own notes on Kak were “Insinuates 3 mafia team right away; composes a breakdown of the game (looks town, quite the post…so get in deep by seeming indispensable).” I liked the posting right off the bat but it did bother me throughout the day. Glad to see I was right.

I have to go back to see the posts where worcej allegedly confuses Kak and Koala. There’s still something up with worcej that I’m not crazy about. It involves jamie so I need to dig deeper into it. However, I am not so certain that the “confusion,” sincere or not, helps worcej look good.

Ghug brings up rivera’s post about who they find “townie.” That group includes Kak, Flum, and myself. It’s a good wondering so I don’t want to say anymore until I read what rivera has said about it.

I disagree with Flum that ghug, damo, and myself can be assumed to be town. The first two didn’t stay on the wagon and did move to TFB. Granted the Kak wagon really lacked steam or didn’t maintain competitiveness when there was less than 14 minutes to go in the day.

What I will say up to this point is that there is an earnestness in ghug’s posting and collecting of information that does make me lean in to them being town.

Just getting to jamie’s outrage at bozo and anyone else who “scumread” him. Passionate jamie seems to pretty much be town jamie.

What a lot of this means I have contradicting feelings about my reads. There's some people I am feeling way stronger about as town but there are still so many doubts.

[ghug]

@Koala

Did you post in Master thread by mistake?

I think ghug was suggesting there is a delay or condition mechanism wtt vigshot.

Well, I had that thought once night had started.

At the time, the thought was just:
1. We're down to minutes, I need to switch to a new viable wagon now that my top scumread has flipped.
2. Koala is a good option but there was talk of him having a gun.
3. He hasn't been around for hours so it's probably not an issue.

I think delayed announcement of something that had already been announced is certainly possible. I don't think the GMs being as AFK as Koala in the run up to their chosen EoD time is so unlikely that assuming it is somehow a "slip". I needed compelling evidence to not vote for Koala, and it wasn't there.

[ghug]

Things we know positively. TheFlyingBoat was town. Kak was mafia. We don’t know how or why Kak died. Some observations. Ghug referred back to Kak’s own vote; made the vote on Koala and cast a little shade on Bona. I am not sure that makes Bona look Bona-fide good. Keep an eye on, though.

Ghug then suggests that both Flum and Damo were reading Kak as town. My own notes on Kak were “Insinuates 3 mafia team right away; composes a breakdown of the game (looks town, quite the post…so get in deep by seeming indispensable).” I liked the posting right off the bat but it did bother me throughout the day. Glad to see I was right.

I have to go back to see the posts where worcej allegedly confuses Kak and Koala. There’s still something up with worcej that I’m not crazy about. It involves jamie so I need to dig deeper into it. However, I am not so certain that the “confusion,” sincere or not, helps worcej look good.

Ghug brings up rivera’s post about who they find “townie.” That group includes Kak, Flum, and myself. It’s a good wondering so I don’t want to say anymore until I read what rivera has said about it.

I disagree with Flum that ghug, damo, and myself can be assumed to be town. The first two didn’t stay on the wagon and did move to TFB. Granted the Kak wagon really lacked steam or didn’t maintain competitiveness when there was less than 14 minutes to go in the day.

What I will say up to this point is that there is an earnestness in ghug’s posting and collecting of information that does make me lean in to them being town.

Just getting to jamie’s outrage at bozo and anyone else who “scumread” him. Passionate jamie seems to pretty much be town jamie.

What a lot of this means I have contradicting feelings about my reads. There's some people I am feeling way stronger about as town but there are still so many doubts.

I moved to TFB after Kak died lol

[Hamilton Brian]

Ok, I'll check the bot. My phone wasn't refreshing the page so I missed the time frame for the announcement about Kak to when TFB was killed.

[Jamiet99uk]

Kak was mafia. We don’t know how or why Kak died.

Somebody shot him.

[Fluminator]

Assuming mafia get a nightkill in, we have 9 town with probably 2 scum meaning we still only have 2 miskills before we lose. We're only even right now.

I think ghug/damo/hamilton can all be safely assumed as town for being on the kak wagon until at least we use the first miskill.

I would not assume there were no bussers when Kakarroto missed the second half of D1.

It's a safe assumption for one vote imo. Ghug, damo, and hamilton should all be assumed to be town tomorrow and accounted for in associative reads.

If it results in a miskill, then we recalibrate.

[Jamiet99uk]

Just getting to jamie’s outrage at bozo and anyone else who “scumread” him. Passionate jamie seems to pretty much be town jamie.

Minor clarification:

Bozo did not scumread me at the point when he voted for me.

He has admitted this.

What do you think about that?

[Fluminator]

Just getting to jamie’s outrage at bozo and anyone else who “scumread” him. Passionate jamie seems to pretty much be town jamie.

Minor clarification:

Bozo did not scumread me at the point when he voted for me.

He has admitted this.

What do you think about that?

I'm definitely not townreading bozo, but voting someone you don't scumread day 1 for reactions is very normal.

[Jamiet99uk]

My own notes on Kak were “Insinuates 3 mafia team right away; composes a breakdown of the game (looks town, quite the post…so get in deep by seeming indispensable).”

This is not accurate, read carefully again.

Pages 7 and 8. It was Worcej who immediately suggested there must be 3 Mafia for balance purposes. Kak's reaction was as follows:

So, 12 players, right? If we think there is no 3rd party, normal range should be from 2 to 4, probably 3. I don't like how worcej directly jumped on the number being 3, in his post about it, but then again, it looks the most likely, no? It would be 1/4th of the whole population so mathematically it makes sense.

However, there are some variations, since Mafia could have extremely strong roles and only be two, right? Or Mafia have no roles but the numbers and town have a load of PR's. Sure, this is all speculation, but Chaqa said before, he very much liked it and wanted to play it (and correct me if I'm wrong but Chaqa likes more role heavy settings, right?).

I know for D1 this doesn't make any difference, but I'd like to mention it here for the future, with the power of hindsight and more knowledge of roles from the flips. Depending on which information we get we should get a better picture of the setting and keep rethinking, not being stuck with only one view.

Therefore, I like thoughts about these situations, especially ghug and Jamie, but everyone is welcome to add theirs (and I would most appreciate that):

-) 2 mafia, both with powerful roles, 1/6th ratio
-) 3 mafia, probably mixed, 1/4th ratio
-) 4 mafia, powerless, 1/3rd ratio

depending on what town has available as roles, I personally think 2 or 4 mafia are still on the table (though the 1/3rd ratio make me take a step back). If we have only 2 mafia with powerful roles, I think a 3rd party is possible, maybe even likely. If we have 4 mafia, then town should have a load of power roles.

I am not sure what exactly to take away from this, but I just noticed that your original note appears inaccurate, Brian.