MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

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bozotheclown
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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4061 Post by bozotheclown » Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:24 pm

lfischl wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:37 am
bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:28 am
lfischl wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:08 am


If I'm being completely honest i don't remember, give me 2 minutes to go back and read through that and see if I can figure out my thought process
Are you still trying to figure out why you voted for PE?
I’m pretty sure it was a mix of me following a townread and knowing i wasn’t going to be on much

I don't think this explanation is consistent with what happened D2. damo provided 5 players he would vote for, and lfischl picked PE and swordsman, so he was not just following damo, and lfischl was unable to answer why he suspected PE, or why he stopped suspecting him and tried to help save him D4. If lfischl was trying to distance from PE, he would have had to vote for PE after damo followed up by voting PE. Also, BK3K voted foe PE right after damo. Here is the sequence:
lfischl wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:35 pm
damo666 wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:26 pm
Count of who ended on Bunny

Bra Boz Bon Fish 3
Bra Boz Fish PE 2
Bra Boz Fish Swo 2
Bra Boz PE Swo 1
Bra Bon Fish TFB 4
Bra Fish PE Swo 2
Bra Fish PE TFB 3
Bra Fish Swo TFB 3
Bra PE Swo TFB 2
Boz Bon Fish TFB 3
Boz Fish PE Swo 1
Fish PE Swo TFB 2

Eliminating the improbable counts of only 1 and all 4 we are left with 9 teams with a revised frequency count:

Brain 7
Bozo 4
Bona 2
Fish 7
PE 5
Swo 5
TFB 5

Adding TFB I now think we should vote from among {Brain, Fish, PE, Sword, TFB}

I'm finding Bona and Bozo less likely

##vote lfischl
I would vote for PE or Sword if you would
damo666 wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:45 pm
@lfischl I will monitor, willing to vote any of my 5 suspects
BK3K wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:50 pm
##vote pres

Not feeling confident about any choice. Always felt pres was fishy. Did i follow his arguments? Yes. Am i voting anyway? Yes

Do i contradict myself? Very well, i contradict myself. I am large; i contain multitudes.
lfischl wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:59 pm
damo666 wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:45 pm
@lfischl I will monitor, willing to vote any of my 5 suspects
##vote pre
I think this makes it likely lfischl is mafia, since I do not see any town explanation for him selecting PE from damo's list, and lfischl was unable to provide one.

If lfischl is mafia, Chaqa is probably town.

BK3K could have been bussing PE D2 and D4, so I think lfischl/BK3K is possible.

Or, maybe all the Neon hammers were town and it is simply lfischl/TFB.

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4062 Post by bozotheclown » Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:31 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:11 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:04 am
Chaqa wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:51 am


I wouldn't have changed my mind. It's why I hammered.

Personally, I am also down to hammer Lfischl tomorrow, but I'm sure i'm a radical on that front.
You said this D4, why did you not consider this D5:
Chaqa wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 2:22 pm


It's just as easily explained by someone thinking mafia would expect Flum to be protected and deciding to self-protect N1, which could be true of literally any one of us. And given the rise of town fakeclaims, if I were the doctor I might not be so quick to assume CCing nets a scum when Neon could be town trying to shake Swordsman's stink.
I didnt need to consider it. Neon had to go, even if I thought there was a chance she was town, because we can’t be operating on bad assumptions
bozotheclown wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 7:00 am
Here is Chaqa's D4 progression on PE:
Chaqa wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:22 am
It's probably just Lfischl, BK3K, and like Eden or Bona.
Chaqa wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 3:34 am
Bonatogether wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 3:30 am


yeah that makes more sense to me, but that doesn't point to anyone
It pointed to ghug, at least somewhat.

Maybe Eden, TFB, +1newbie?
Chaqa wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:43 pm
Bonatogether wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:15 pm


let's not

have you read my case on eden?
Yeah.

I'm torn on Eden. I think he's quite off his normal town game, but I also think that could just be because he doesn't have the time to focus into mafia? But if he's mafia, why does he move to bus ghug there? Ghug is a valuable mafia to be alive, and it's hard for me to imagine he does that when he would be an expected nightkill as soon as like tonight or tomorrow.
Chaqa wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 9:31 pm
The Eden wagon is absolutely bonkers and should not be a thing.

You guys would be much better served voting me out.
Can you explain you changing position on PE D4?

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4063 Post by bozotheclown » Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:40 pm

I understand DKing Neon, there was the possibility she was trying to force the doctor to claim, but with only one mis-kill, I would have waited on Neon with players like lfischl and TFB looking generally suspicious, yet could be town if there is a hidden mafia like BK3K.

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4064 Post by bozotheclown » Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:46 pm

BK3K wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:18 pm
Yeah i think this is bad for neon

Why would Mafia not kill neon? If she's truely doctor, that's a town clear.

One reason is she's scum, so they have to pick someone else.

I think they got unlucky by flipping the real doc, thus proving Neon is lying.

Maybe someone else has some thing, but i can't think of any reason why Neon wouldn't be the target is she was not Mafia. They could always kill her with the kill RB combo, so they must have known she was lying.
BK3K wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:25 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:17 pm
I was concerned that was the reason rdrivera was suspecting Neon's claim.

While the obvious conclusion is that the mafia were willing to trade Neon for identifying the doctor, I think we should wait to see if Neon comes back before hammering.
I think this might be right. And when they first started this plan, they didn't anticipate Eden would be caught so soon. They thought they'd lose Neon and be down to 2 instead of 1
I find BK3K's response to the rdrivera NK suspicious, specifically the part about the mafia getting unlucky in NKed the real doctor, then BK3K agreed with my possible explanation even though I had also posted why the fake claim would makes sense to make as town before BK3K's response.

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4065 Post by bozotheclown » Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:08 pm

BK3K wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:23 am
##vote princess a second time

Even if she does town, this is all too ludicrous to be acceptable
BK3K wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:24 am
bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:22 am
I can see Neon claiming doctor as VT, I don't think we can afford to policy vote her. I think everyone should review PE's interaction with her and see if they think they were coordinating to identify the doctor.
I'm not hammering yet, but jeez Louise
BK3K wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:40 am
Princess Neon wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:38 am
Bonatogether wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:23 am

in that world, i don't understand that if rdr was obviously doc, why did no one in scumchat point this out to eden (ie, he wouldn't need to determine if neon was doc)
I don't no how is incredibly hard to understand that RDR was obviously doc because of how they played around my slot YESTERDAY when Eden was clearly trying to figure out if my claim was real or not
I have to revisit. Was Eden trying to fact check you, or trying to fish out the real doc? Idk the answer yet
BK3K wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:10 am
Chaqa wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:06 am
The biggest thing for me is, if Neon is town, why did Rivera die?
This is probably the most influential question for me and why i got neon and vote end

BK3K was trying to shut down my attempt to prevent the Neon DK, but then seems to back off on being confident Neon was mafia. Also, Neon and I had already pointed out there was a good reason why the mafia would have NKed rdrivera. Even if they were not confident rdrivera was the doctor, they still had incentive to NK him first to find out, knowing Neon would be an easy mis-kill if she was fake claiming, and rdrivera was more of a threat to the mafia than Neon. I would expect BK3K to considered these possibilities more by the time he voted to end.

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4066 Post by Chaqa » Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:28 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:31 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:11 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:04 am


You said this D4, why did you not consider this D5:

I didnt need to consider it. Neon had to go, even if I thought there was a chance she was town, because we can’t be operating on bad assumptions
bozotheclown wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 7:00 am
Here is Chaqa's D4 progression on PE:
Chaqa wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:22 am
It's probably just Lfischl, BK3K, and like Eden or Bona.
Chaqa wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 3:34 am


It pointed to ghug, at least somewhat.

Maybe Eden, TFB, +1newbie?
Chaqa wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 3:43 pm


Yeah.

I'm torn on Eden. I think he's quite off his normal town game, but I also think that could just be because he doesn't have the time to focus into mafia? But if he's mafia, why does he move to bus ghug there? Ghug is a valuable mafia to be alive, and it's hard for me to imagine he does that when he would be an expected nightkill as soon as like tonight or tomorrow.
Chaqa wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 9:31 pm
The Eden wagon is absolutely bonkers and should not be a thing.

You guys would be much better served voting me out.
Can you explain you changing position on PE D4?
I got lost in the moment.

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4067 Post by bozotheclown » Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:40 pm

KoalaAttack wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 7:44 pm
OK I'm about to get dragged away and out of time.

Updated Suspect List:

(1) Chaqa
(2) President Eden
...
big gap
...
(3) lfischl
(4) Bono


TheFlyingBoat (4) bozotheclown Chaqa BK3K President Eden
President Eden (2) Bonatogether rdrivera2005
Chaqa (2) lfischl KoalaAttack
BK3K (1) TheFlyingBoat
rdrivera2005 (1) Princess Neon*

My top 2 suspects both have 2 votes currently. One of the votes against them is a vote by my other two weaker Suspects for each of them. And TFB has both my top 2 suspects voting for them.

No more sheeping. I stay on (1) Chaqa and encourage folks to vote on (2) President Eden if they don't believe the Chaqa case.

Good luck to fellow Townies, may the force be with you, catch some Mafias!
I think this is kind of suspicious also.
KoalaAttack wrote:
Sun Feb 19, 2023 5:15 am
KoalaAttack wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 8:43 pm
If I am still alive by end of day – and if Mafia doesn't kill me overnight – I will do another updated Suspects List! And then continue voting for BK3K regardless of that it says.


I just realized that waiting until tomorrow to post a Suspects List would be a mistake and a lost opportunity in case Mafia does kill me and you miss out on the opportunity to get the benefit of validating my authenticity through that.

So, here is my updated list:



Koala's Suspects List 3.0

(1) Chaqa – as I mentioned earlier, their representation of how I reacted to them cussing me out in a moment of anger last game vs how I reacted to an intentional provocation by BK3K this game is very Suspicious. Continues to make ever more off-handed jokes about being Mafia. My stance of "either they are Town asking for it, or Mafia so blatantly trolling us that not-voting for them would make us all super foolish" is solidifying more and more.

(2) Princess Neon – I have zero read on her as a player being the new sub other than a "Thank You for subbing"... But question to experienced folks – would it be logical for her to inherit my thoughts on Swordsman? Because if Swordsman was Town she inherited that, and if Swordsman was Mafia she did as well, right? Well, given that Swordsman continued to do absolutely & utterly nothing while the Town is tearing itself apart, it just seems awfully convenient. And my only point of reference is my last game, which was won by a Mafia team of Power-Lurkers... So, sorry Princess Neon but you are here until new data tells me otherwise.

(3) President Eden – I know they were on my Townie List 2.0, but are now here mainly due to very suspicious BK3K vs Koala involvement similar to Chaqa. Why would a Townie want to ride that wave together with now-proven-Mobster ghug? And here is the thing – one could ask "why did BK3K did that?" just as easily as "why did Koala reacted that way?" ... Even Bona, to Bona's credid, asked precisely that. And AFAICT, I wasn't prominent on President Eden's Suspect list beforehand – and neither was BK3K to be fair. But of course, one of us is a lot more active [badly] trying to hunt Mafias than the other (no offense BK3K)... Yeah, just feels off.

(4) Bona – I still Suspect them for all the earlier over-the-top buddying up, but there seems to be a wider consensus that they are Townie, especially revolving around their actions on Day 1. Honestly, I don't really understand the rationale, and also I thought you folks said we shouldn't give too much weight to Day 1 ... but I am amendable to listen to the majority. If Fluminator was alive they would probably accuse me of sheeping now :)


Koala's NAI List:

(5) Damo – and here I am going to be sheeping in the other direction. I was flip-flopping putting Damo on the suspect list, but they very much undermined ghug's attempt to pile on me for BK3K reaction. And AFAICT the case against Damo boils down to "usually Damo is good at Townie, this game Damo is bad as Townie" which is fair enough but maybe doesn't have quite as much weight in my inexperienced eyes.

(6) TFB – one think I really, really, feel confident about is a very strong unpairing between Damo & TFB. So mostly TFB is here to be next to Damo whom I now suspect more.

(7) BK3K – I said all I'll say re our episode. But the key question is the motivation of "why" they did that in their drunken state? Was it to try to line-up a miskill as a Mafia? Or was is a bored Townie just trying to stir something up? I think I do believe what BK3K said about not being that much into the game, it tracks with the level of contribution. So here we are.

(8) lfishl – I am still suspicious of lfishl for lurking given they just won the last game as a Lurker Mafia, and they seem to be playing exactly the same way again. But clearly lfishl did a lot more than Swordsman so if we are pressuring quiet folks they are 2nd in line and thus here.



Koala's [Temporarily] Cleared of Suspicion List:

(9) & (10) – rdrivera & Bozo – I really hate having the Soulless Koala Killer and the Evil Koala Murder Ordered on here. But going by their actions this game, they seem to both be acting logically and trying to eliminate suspects. Of course, they both did that during the last game too before their koalacide... But as much as it pains me, put them here now.

(11) – brainbomb – I still got no reason to suspect them. I still dislike their intentionally provocative posting style from especially early on, but still feel that they helped uncover more useful data for us.
Going back to N2 to determine the reasons KoalaAttack was suspecting PE, I think it is interesting that KoalaAttack had rdrivera and myself as strong town reads after the ghug DK, but apparently did not give PE and town credit for DKing ghug.

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4068 Post by BK3K » Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:41 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:46 pm
BK3K wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:18 pm
Yeah i think this is bad for neon

Why would Mafia not kill neon? If she's truely doctor, that's a town clear.

One reason is she's scum, so they have to pick someone else.

I think they got unlucky by flipping the real doc, thus proving Neon is lying.

Maybe someone else has some thing, but i can't think of any reason why Neon wouldn't be the target is she was not Mafia. They could always kill her with the kill RB combo, so they must have known she was lying.
BK3K wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:25 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 10:17 pm
I was concerned that was the reason rdrivera was suspecting Neon's claim.

While the obvious conclusion is that the mafia were willing to trade Neon for identifying the doctor, I think we should wait to see if Neon comes back before hammering.
I think this might be right. And when they first started this plan, they didn't anticipate Eden would be caught so soon. They thought they'd lose Neon and be down to 2 instead of 1
I find BK3K's response to the rdrivera NK suspicious, specifically the part about the mafia getting unlucky in NKed the real doctor, then BK3K agreed with my possible explanation even though I had also posted why the fake claim would makes sense to make as town before BK3K's response.
When I posted the first one, it hadn't even occurred to me that there were clues enough out there for the real doc to be deduced. I thought that the mafia was hoping to kill a VT, so there would still be a question mark hanging over Neon. When Rivera flipped town, Neon was exposed in the lie. I thought the mafia would want a shady Neon in the mix, and "got unlucky" by hitting the one true doc.

I guess I didn't think it all through. Assuming the above:
1 -Neon was town - this would be a good play, sets Neon up for a mis kill. But neon was MK'd anyway, so idk, maybe neon was always doomed
2- neon was scum. in this case, they can't kill her anyway, so ambiguity as to the real doctor is keeps her safer

For the second point, I felt >50% likely that Neon was scum. I get how she could have been fake claiming as town, especially now since it actually happened. But as a new player, the idea seems so outrageous to me, I didn't see how it could work (and it didn't) so I felt good in my assumptions she was scum.

as to why i eventually hammered, I was really feeling confident neon would flip town, i thought it was forgone, and i was getting excited about the game. i didn't want to wait to find out her alignment for certain. I get now that that was rash, my bad. in fairness to myslef tho, i only hold a fraction of the hammer blame

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4069 Post by BK3K » Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:42 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:08 pm
BK3K wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:23 am
##vote princess a second time

Even if she does town, this is all too ludicrous to be acceptable
BK3K wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:24 am
bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 2:22 am
I can see Neon claiming doctor as VT, I don't think we can afford to policy vote her. I think everyone should review PE's interaction with her and see if they think they were coordinating to identify the doctor.
I'm not hammering yet, but jeez Louise
BK3K wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:40 am
Princess Neon wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:38 am


I don't no how is incredibly hard to understand that RDR was obviously doc because of how they played around my slot YESTERDAY when Eden was clearly trying to figure out if my claim was real or not
I have to revisit. Was Eden trying to fact check you, or trying to fish out the real doc? Idk the answer yet
BK3K wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:10 am
Chaqa wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:06 am
The biggest thing for me is, if Neon is town, why did Rivera die?
This is probably the most influential question for me and why i got neon and vote end

BK3K was trying to shut down my attempt to prevent the Neon DK, but then seems to back off on being confident Neon was mafia. Also, Neon and I had already pointed out there was a good reason why the mafia would have NKed rdrivera. Even if they were not confident rdrivera was the doctor, they still had incentive to NK him first to find out, knowing Neon would be an easy mis-kill if she was fake claiming, and rdrivera was more of a threat to the mafia than Neon. I would expect BK3K to considered these possibilities more by the time he voted to end.
as above, i felt good about the neon kill, but always am filled with doubt. i should have been more rational and let things progress like you suggested, but i got excited

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4070 Post by BK3K » Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:50 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:24 pm
lfischl wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:37 am
bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:28 am


Are you still trying to figure out why you voted for PE?
I’m pretty sure it was a mix of me following a townread and knowing i wasn’t going to be on much

I don't think this explanation is consistent with what happened D2. damo provided 5 players he would vote for, and lfischl picked PE and swordsman, so he was not just following damo, and lfischl was unable to answer why he suspected PE, or why he stopped suspecting him and tried to help save him D4. If lfischl was trying to distance from PE, he would have had to vote for PE after damo followed up by voting PE. Also, BK3K voted foe PE right after damo. Here is the sequence:
lfischl wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:35 pm
damo666 wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:26 pm
Count of who ended on Bunny

Bra Boz Bon Fish 3
Bra Boz Fish PE 2
Bra Boz Fish Swo 2
Bra Boz PE Swo 1
Bra Bon Fish TFB 4
Bra Fish PE Swo 2
Bra Fish PE TFB 3
Bra Fish Swo TFB 3
Bra PE Swo TFB 2
Boz Bon Fish TFB 3
Boz Fish PE Swo 1
Fish PE Swo TFB 2

Eliminating the improbable counts of only 1 and all 4 we are left with 9 teams with a revised frequency count:

Brain 7
Bozo 4
Bona 2
Fish 7
PE 5
Swo 5
TFB 5

Adding TFB I now think we should vote from among {Brain, Fish, PE, Sword, TFB}

I'm finding Bona and Bozo less likely

##vote lfischl
I would vote for PE or Sword if you would
damo666 wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:45 pm
@lfischl I will monitor, willing to vote any of my 5 suspects
BK3K wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:50 pm
##vote pres

Not feeling confident about any choice. Always felt pres was fishy. Did i follow his arguments? Yes. Am i voting anyway? Yes

Do i contradict myself? Very well, i contradict myself. I am large; i contain multitudes.
lfischl wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:59 pm
damo666 wrote:
Sat Feb 18, 2023 5:45 pm
@lfischl I will monitor, willing to vote any of my 5 suspects
##vote pre
I think this makes it likely lfischl is mafia, since I do not see any town explanation for him selecting PE from damo's list, and lfischl was unable to provide one.

If lfischl is mafia, Chaqa is probably town.

BK3K could have been bussing PE D2 and D4, so I think lfischl/BK3K is possible.

Or, maybe all the Neon hammers were town and it is simply lfischl/TFB.
despite your suspicions of me, you stand out to strongest townie to me, doing the most work to figure shit out and you helped us punt Eden.

This makes sense to me for lfischl to be scum.

I feel like the other would be in tfb/chaqa

if anyone else, they played a deep game imo

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4071 Post by Chaqa » Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:06 pm

This isn't even close to my deep game.

I once came back from a 1v11 as scum. Ask Bozo. he was there at the end.

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4072 Post by KoalaAttack » Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:33 pm

bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:40 pm
KoalaAttack wrote:
Fri Feb 24, 2023 7:44 pm
OK I'm about to get dragged away and out of time.

Updated Suspect List:

(1) Chaqa
(2) President Eden
...
big gap
...
(3) lfischl
(4) Bono

TheFlyingBoat (4) bozotheclown Chaqa BK3K President Eden
President Eden (2) Bonatogether rdrivera2005
Chaqa (2) lfischl KoalaAttack
BK3K (1) TheFlyingBoat
rdrivera2005 (1) Princess Neon*

My top 2 suspects both have 2 votes currently. One of the votes against them is a vote by my other two weaker Suspects for each of them. And TFB has both my top 2 suspects voting for them.

No more sheeping. I stay on (1) Chaqa and encourage folks to vote on (2) President Eden if they don't believe the Chaqa case.

Good luck to fellow Townies, may the force be with you, catch some Mafias!
I think this is kind of suspicious also.
KoalaAttack wrote:
Sun Feb 19, 2023 5:15 am
...
Koala's Suspects List 3.0
(1) Chaqa – <snip>
(2) Princess Neon – <snip>
(3) President Eden – I know they were on my Townie List 2.0, but are now here mainly due to very suspicious BK3K vs Koala involvement similar to Chaqa. Why would a Townie want to ride that wave together with now-proven-Mobster ghug? And here is the thing – one could ask "why did BK3K did that?" just as easily as "why did Koala reacted that way?" ... Even Bona, to Bona's credid, asked precisely that. And AFAICT, I wasn't prominent on President Eden's Suspect list beforehand – and neither was BK3K to be fair. But of course, one of us is a lot more active [badly] trying to hunt Mafias than the other (no offense BK3K)... Yeah, just feels off.
(4) Bona – <snip>

Koala's NAI List:
(5) Damo – <snip>
(6) TFB – <snip>
(7) BK3K – <snip>
(8) lfishl – <snip>

Koala's [Temporarily] Cleared of Suspicion List:
(9) & (10) – rdrivera & Bozo – I really hate having the Soulless Koala Killer and the Evil Koala Murder Ordered on here. But going by their actions this game, they seem to both be acting logically and trying to eliminate suspects. Of course, they both did that during the last game too before their koalacide... But as much as it pains me, put them here now.
(11) – brainbomb – <snip>
Going back to N2 to determine the reasons KoalaAttack was suspecting PE, I think it is interesting that KoalaAttack had rdrivera and myself as strong town reads after the ghug DK, but apparently did not give PE and town credit for DKing ghug.

Re first one – I was going to address this, as I like to address all questions that mention me. However, not trying to dodge the question, but I really don't understand what is Suspicious about that. A bit strange to see Bozo say "Suspicious" without justifications, I am used to more logic from Bozo. Hmm... Suspicious in turn?.. Anywho, if you can share what is Suspicious I will be happy to share my best take.

Re second one – every night, when I post my Suspect List, I try to summarize the "biggest signals" I have on each person within a short paragraph. Think of it as everyone has a set of weights in my mind, with Suspicious acts on one side and Townie acts on another. It's not that I didn't give President Eden credit re ghug, it's more that it was completely out-weighed by large suspicious from their involvement in the Cussing Out incident, and I was pre-occupied with that. And for rdrivera & yourself, I haven't had anything big to latch on to, so you general Mafia-hunting was indeed the "biggest signal" at the time.

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4073 Post by Bonatogether » Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:30 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:06 pm
This isn't even close to my deep game.

I once came back from a 1v11 as scum. Ask Bozo. he was there at the end.

that was my first game and i caught you right before i died

i peaked then

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4074 Post by KoalaAttack » Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:52 pm

KoalaAttack wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:36 am
Anyway, I'm going to sleep on this. I will probably not post more thoughts until close to the end of the night, to avoid showing my hand to the Mafia.

Unless everyone tells me that hammering the Night is a good idea and I should do it? For now I'm assuming it's a bad idea.
Hi everyone, I have an Announcement and a Request, since we seem to have a 50-hour long Night here, I am bored and now having a lunch break with a glass of wine in hand.

Announcement: clearly, we are losing as Town, and Mafia team is taking us for a ride. This means that our existing assumptions and trajectories of thinking are either incorrect or at least "not correct enough". So I do believe we need to go back to the first principles and start from scratch.

So, I will be posting my Case against every single person left alive below. But I will not stack-rank them – to avoid tipping my hand to the Mafia as I mentioned above.

Request: I ask that everyone else does the same. If we all post our best cases against everyone else, but not stack-rank them, then once Mafia kills one of us, it proves 100% guaranteed authenticity of their thoughts to the rest, no? So this would benefit the Town as a whole.

I would suggest not posting your stack-ranking, but posting your thoughts on everyone. And I will default to Suspecting folks who do not participate or try to solve the puzzle tomorrow.

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4075 Post by Bonatogether » Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:57 pm

koalers i already spend 3 hours making a case on boat man

no way

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4076 Post by KoalaAttack » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:05 pm

The Mystery of BK3K
(yes I'm going Alphabetically to honor the spirit of Damo):

- says they are a vibes-driven player
- which is fine, but as I mentioned before, can be used to justify as literally anything


But the read red flag is here:
BK3K wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:50 pm
bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 6:24 pm
<snip, things Bozo said, irrelevant for the purposes of my point>
despite your suspicions of me, you stand out to strongest townie to me, doing the most work to figure shit out and you helped us punt Eden.

This makes sense to me for lfischl to be scum.

I feel like the other would be in tfb/chaqa

if anyone else, they played a deep game imo

And this is not the first time BK3K says something like this. Here is an example directed at me earlier:
BK3K wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 1:01 am
KoalaAttack wrote:
Sat Feb 25, 2023 12:55 am
<snip things I said, irrelevant to the point I'm making>
koala, youre also in my strong town vibe pool. i feel like if youre scum, youre a great actor. and you seem to honest to be a good scum liar

Now, check this out. We are getting destroyed as a Town. Mafia is clearly running circles around us. Why would you trust anyone at this point? Yes, Bozo is arguably the most Town-read, but clearly the Mafia team is all too happy with our current Town reads, aren't they?

I for one think I am surrounded by enemies. It really baffles me how one can trust anyone at this juncture. I expect you all to Suspect the crap out of me. And when someone says "I trust X ..." in my head I finish that sentence with "... because I know from Mafia Chat that they are Townie"

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4077 Post by KoalaAttack » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:11 pm

The Mystery of Bona

- used to be my Suspect #1 once upon the time
- the overarching Town sentiment seems to be that Bona has since been cleared

- I am still a tad confused on exactly why or how?
- Their FrankenPost vote on President Eden certainly gives them a lot of brownie points, sure. But Bona strikes me as someone who would have zero issues bussing their Mafia teammates if it suited their purpose.

- But the bulk of the clearing transpired before that, and was heavily rooted in D1 wagonomics.
- From where I sit, D1 wagonomics have proven to be a weak & ineffectual method of Mafia hunting at best so far. Too much WIFOM involved.

- Further, consider Bona's noise-to-signal ration. It's completely out of whack.
- Yes, Bona makes great points at times. Bot there is so much noise.
- Which could be fishing for reactions, but then you stop and consider who else is playing.
- Do you all really think the likes of lfischl (if they are Town) or even rdrivera are reading all that? BK3K flat out said they aren't.
- So why would a veteran player like Bono continue down this path when it leads to folks being checked out?

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4078 Post by KoalaAttack » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:21 pm

The Mystery of Bozo

- clearly the most Town-read player on here (so yes, please feel free to crucify or Suspect me for the audacity of this post)

- which leads to the question of "How come they are still alive?"
- I think our informal poll has established that rdrivera being Doctor was not-at-all-Obvious to most folks
- so how come Mafia killed rdrivera over Bozo?


Also, I asked Bozo this:
KoalaAttack wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:18 am
bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:36 am
I am fairly confident that the 2 mafia voted to hammer Neon, unfortunately the mafia can likely get a mis-kill of lfischl to win.
Since when and how did lfischl became a sure mis-kill with such confidence?

From my POV they still lurked the entire game and the one thing of note they did is come in to try and save President Eden. And sure, we can ignore todaybecause lfischl wouldn't have known about the early end. But I'd like to understand the rationale of why you move them beyond NAI?

and also this:
KoalaAttack wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 8:39 am
KoalaAttack wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:25 am
Princess Neon wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:18 am
When I flip town will you proceed to drop this entire thought and forget about Bozo ignoring the fact that wolf Bozo could just be TMIing me town here and trying to gain cred because they were patient with me and tried to give me space to talk when wolf Bozo just knows I'm gonna flip town here.
I am having a hard time parsing out that sentence, but I believe what you are saying is: "When I flip Town, will you remember to go back to this or let Bozo get away with it?"

If that's correct, then my response is: If you flip Town, I promise to come back to this post and thing long & hard about the implications of it.
I went back as per my promise to Princess Neon – and I am really unsure what to make of this.

On one hand, there is an obvious implication of Bozo by Princess Neon here. On the other hand, brainbomb's dying declaration was to suspect rdrivera (proven false) and myself (unprovable to the rest of you, but I know to be false), while rdrivera's dying declaration was to suspect Princess Neon (proven false) and lfischl (unknown at this stage).

I would like to ask others for their thoughts on this now that Princess Neon has been flipped as Town. Including Bozo's thoughts, ideally – though there is an obvious POV bias there.

and have received no response.


But wait a second – Bozo is a logic machine that reads every post. They even read Bona's FrankenPost of Doom by their own admission.

Yet here is Bozo responding to my later question:
bozotheclown wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:06 am
lfischl wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 7:01 am
KoalaAttack wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 5:37 am
Never mind, I just checked my own PMs and I see no notification. That answers that.

So, the elusive lfischl suddenly appears 32 minutes after the day ends. Maybe it's just a coincidence. Or maybe the Mafia Chat Discord notifications are exploding? A bit Suspicions, this.
I had thing for school that I wasn't going to be on from 1-6(PST) then I went home and did something with fam and checked after that. I didn't expect ya'll to hammer in 7 hours
What made you suspect PE D2 enough that you told damo you would vote for him, and what changed your mind about PE?
[/quote]


... conveniently skipping over the uncomfortable ones I asked for their thoughts on? What is this?

I read Bozo as a logic-driven machine. And from 2nd hand references I garther that's Bozo's overall meta here. Someone said "computed adjust humor parameters" or something to them earlier.

A logic-driven machine who reads every post is not supposed to conveniently skip a few that ask some tough questions of them – is it?

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4079 Post by KoalaAttack » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:23 pm

Bonatogether wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 9:57 pm
koalers i already spend 3 hours making a case on boat man

no way
I thought we were supposed to be buddies, no? Buddies don't leave buddies hanging like this! :cry: :cry: :cry:

Guilt-trip and participate! Don't be a shady Mafia suspect!

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Re: MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#4080 Post by KoalaAttack » Sun Feb 26, 2023 10:35 pm

The Mystery of Chaqa 2.0


I refer you all to The Mystery of Chaqa 1.0:
KoalaAttack wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 8:06 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Thu Feb 23, 2023 7:35 pm
It's a little odd no one has called me suspicious for not doing a VCA yet.

Not sure what that means.
I think it means you have them all wrapped around your little finger.

Fine, I will do it – even though there is obvious Confirmation Bias at play given you are my Suspect #1.

Ladies & Gentlemen, I present to you The Mystery of Chaqa:

Chaqa: "I am Mafia, har har"
Everyone: !!! Suspicious !!!
Chaqa: "just kidding"
Everyone: "oh OK"
...
Chaqa: "lfischl is Town, har har"
Everyone: !!! Suspicious !!!
Chaqa: "oh it was my D&D Secret Strategy #17"
Everyone: "oh OK"
...
Chaqa: "no-one even Suspects me for not doing a VCA, har har"
Everyone: !!! Suspicious !!!
Chaqa: "pfft, no worries, y'all will never follow through on my wagon"

I mean, I have watched folks zero in on each other for like a minuscule fraction of the things Chaqa does. For christ's sake, TFB hardcore went after Damo for freaking alphabetizing his list. And yet Chaqa gets away with the most amazing things, because "that's just Chaqa"?

Also, Chaqa is an apparent Mafia GM and D&D DM (I've never played but that means Dungeon Master doesn't it?) who is purchasing professional board gaming tables. Yet on here, Chaqa is a honey badger who don't give a damn.

I stand by my Suspicious!

Since then, Chaqa has:

(1) admittedly became more engaged and helped catch president Eden (good)

(2) contributed to the Hammering of Princess Neon (bad)

(3) really doubled down on the trolling, here is just one example:
Chaqa wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 4:00 am
KoalaAttack wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:59 am
Chaqa wrote:
Sun Feb 26, 2023 3:54 am


Someone had to pick up the slack now that Eden's gone.

I typed this up before remembering Eden was mafia, but I'm going to post it anyway for posterity and posteriority.
Mate, come on...

I am literally thinking here going "maybe I should reconsider Chaqa trolling being Suspicious in light of their actually useful engaged participation today" ...

And what does Chaqa do? Why, Chaqa posts The Mother Of All Troll Posts of course. The funny Family Guy video notwithstanding.

I am... impressed. And back to Suspicious.
If it's any help, this is just how I am.

In D&D today I played an Arcane Trickster Rogue Centaur, name Clyde Dale.

OK, well if Chaqa doubles down on the Trolling, I double-down on Suspecting them for it.

And if they are indeed Town – just, why?? Why continue doing something that clearly leads to other Townies thinking you are a Mafia? Why keep poking the bee's nest? Like, even if you somehow flip Townie, and then you resume similar trolling in the future game, I'm still going to always Suspect you for it. So why do it as a Townie?

But I can certainly see the Mafia rationale to double-down on the trolling...

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