MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[Princess Neon]

And then this...

@Rivera and Bozo: you guys really think Eden is the most likely scum?

Then would you vote TFB?

I was. I would.

##Vote TheFlyingBoat

Wait. Am I reading this right? So first Chaqa says Eden's wagon is terrible, starts a brand new lfischl one.... Then immediately turns around and partners with the very same lfischl to save Eden?

What makes this wolfy and not an incorrect towny?

[Bonatogether]

the textbook is fake

how can you stagemanage a scumteam so closely?

Is honestly not that hard lol.

i don't think i've ever seen that in all my time on this site. i don't believe that's how scumteams play here

[Princess Neon]

Like if I'm mafia I always put no more than 2 on a run away town led wagon like BunnyGo

And I have my teammates sit outside the wagon but never stacked and I avoid killing off wagon unless I need to for PR.

It's text book and this wolf team is following it to the T.

a literal application of this is

1 scum in Bonatogether, BK3K, TheFlyingBoat, KoalaAttack, lfischl
1 scum in bozotheclown, rdrivera2005

which just doesn't read right to me

where are these names coming from?

Yeah i was wondering this as well lol

[Princess Neon]

a literal application of this is

1 scum in Bonatogether, BK3K, TheFlyingBoat, KoalaAttack, lfischl
1 scum in bozotheclown, rdrivera2005

which just doesn't read right to me

where are these names coming from?

the ending d1 vote count

Meh yeah.

I'm pretty confident clearing Bona and TFB honestly.

[KoalaAttack]

also what happened to koalers?

This:

Awesome, thanks for sharing. Today, Mafia has benefited my work.

Speaking of which, I have about another hour before I go into another meeting galore, which will run through the EOD. And as fun as this is, I'm not un-minimizing the tab on a Zoom call with a customer.

So I have about 1 more hour to decide whether to just keep my vote parked on Chaqa in hopes of a late Chaqa-wagon tide rise, or shift it elsewhere. President Eden, lfischl, Bona are all Suspects. rdrivera is jumping the shark as Suspiciously-non-Suspect. TFB is the high-info flip, but so was Damo and we have fewer MKs left and I am extremely wary of repeating the mistake. Aaaaahhhh, later parts of Mafia are more & more stressful!

Then this:

OK I'm about to get dragged away and out of time.

Updated Suspect List:

(1) Chaqa
(2) President Eden
...
big gap
...
(3) lfischl
(4) Bono

TheFlyingBoat (4) bozotheclown Chaqa BK3K President Eden
President Eden (2) Bonatogether rdrivera2005
Chaqa (2) lfischl KoalaAttack
BK3K (1) TheFlyingBoat
rdrivera2005 (1) Princess Neon*

My top 2 suspects both have 2 votes currently. One of the votes against them is a vote by my other two weaker Suspects for each of them. And TFB has both my top 2 suspects voting for them.

No more sheeping. I stay on (1) Chaqa and encourage folks to vote on (2) President Eden if they don't believe the Chaqa case.

Good luck to fellow Townies, may the force be with you, catch some Mafias!

[Princess Neon]

I voted him D2 and would've switched off if I had been able to get on that day. I still believe the 2 remaining scum are chaqa and TFB, and if the eden wagon was all town that checks out with neons doc claim

PE was strongly defending Neon, and neon was moving in tandem with PE. Eden's logic on why Neon must be doc made sense to me, but many of you implied Neon could be lying as either town or scum.

PE also kept saying "CC or no balls" so he didn't fully believe Neon either.

Not sure what to conclude from all this, but it's interesting at least

Yeah... so here is the thing – President Eden seems to have very intentionally and purposefully obliterated brainbomb's advice to avoid discussing Neon's Doctor Claims. I am not sure what to make of this.

But I for one am going to Not Discuss Doctor Claims anymore – especially during the Night. Because in hindsight, I trust brainbomb's advice over President Eden's.

Eden was 100% trying to get someone to CC me because they were unsure of my claim. They were also 100% testing me asking me questions like who Sword used the ability on N1 and if I held last night.

They were 100% trying to confirm me and I played into it perfectly.

[KoalaAttack]

Anyways. Eden flip clears Chaqa to me. But people don't often trust wagonomics. I do though.

Lfischl 100% looks maf.

I do not think Bozo or RDR should be being cleared from this but meh. It's possible.

Can you please explain the Chaqa-clearing wagonomics to me?

I agree re lfischl.'

I can see your case re not-clearing Bozo or Rdr, though personally I think they both fought pretty hard against the "Save Eden" campaign.

I straight up do not understand the Chaqa part at all.

[BK3K]

Anyways. Eden flip clears Chaqa to me. But people don't often trust wagonomics. I do though.

Lfischl 100% looks maf.

I do not think Bozo or RDR should be being cleared from this but meh. It's possible.

Can you please explain the Chaqa-clearing wagonomics to me?

I agree re lfischl.'

I can see your case re not-clearing Bozo or Rdr, though personally I think they both fought pretty hard against the "Save Eden" campaign.

I straight up do not understand the Chaqa part at all.

She's saying (as I Understand) that both Eden and Chaqa voted for Bona on D1. And therefore its impossible chaqa is scum.

feels realy flimsy to hang your hat on

[BK3K]

I just want to post that I'm pumped we caught Eden. It's reinvigorated me. Nothing personal Eden (assume you're watching in god chat)

[KoalaAttack]

Like if I'm mafia I always put no more than 2 on a run away town led wagon like BunnyGo

And I have my teammates sit outside the wagon but never stacked and I avoid killing off wagon unless I need to for PR.

It's text book and this wolf team is following it to the T.

I see. I don't know, it would seem that Mafia teams following a standard playbook kind of goes counter to the whole idea of mis-leading the rest – especially when you are playing against clearly experienced folks on the other side though, no?

[Princess Neon]

Anyways. Eden flip clears Chaqa to me. But people don't often trust wagonomics. I do though.

Lfischl 100% looks maf.

I do not think Bozo or RDR should be being cleared from this but meh. It's possible.

Can you please explain the Chaqa-clearing wagonomics to me?

I agree re lfischl.'

I can see your case re not-clearing Bozo or Rdr, though personally I think they both fought pretty hard against the "Save Eden" campaign.

I straight up do not understand the Chaqa part at all.

It literally comes down to do you think wolfs stacked 2 on this CW

Bonatogether(4) swordsman3003 President Eden BunnyGo Chaqa

When the easiest place to hide was here

BunnyGo(9) brainbomb Fluminator Bonatogether damo666 BK3K TheFlyingBoat KoalaAttack lfischl ghug

And when both wagons are from my pov town.

Why would you ever stack 2 on a wagon with 4 votes. Hell people were theorizing the ghug wagon switch D1 was to place all 4 on Bunny to hide. But I think Ghug switch EoD1 is infinitely more indicative of a wolf trying to not stack on a smaller wagon

[Princess Neon]

Anyways. Eden flip clears Chaqa to me. But people don't often trust wagonomics. I do though.

Lfischl 100% looks maf.

I do not think Bozo or RDR should be being cleared from this but meh. It's possible.

Can you please explain the Chaqa-clearing wagonomics to me?

I agree re lfischl.'

I can see your case re not-clearing Bozo or Rdr, though personally I think they both fought pretty hard against the "Save Eden" campaign.

I straight up do not understand the Chaqa part at all.

She's saying (as I Understand) that both Eden and Chaqa voted for Bona on D1. And therefore its impossible chaqa is scum.

feels realy flimsy to hang your hat on

I would bet many much money on this. I would bet in this situation >70% of the time that's no more than 1 on a wagon like Bona.

Wagonomics is no different than reading into anything else in mafia is all about percentages. It's never 100% but I've used this a lot and been right a lot.

[Princess Neon]

Like if I'm mafia I always put no more than 2 on a run away town led wagon like BunnyGo

And I have my teammates sit outside the wagon but never stacked and I avoid killing off wagon unless I need to for PR.

It's text book and this wolf team is following it to the T.

I see. I don't know, it would seem that Mafia teams following a standard playbook kind of goes counter to the whole idea of mis-leading the rest – especially when you are playing against clearly experienced folks on the other side though, no?

No. If mafia didn't do mafia things town would never win. Wolfs do wolfy things and try to mask it as town. You just have to play the probabilities and the probability I'm best at is wagon structure and emotional intent.

[BK3K]

Anyways. Eden flip clears Chaqa to me. But people don't often trust wagonomics. I do though.

Lfischl 100% looks maf.

I do not think Bozo or RDR should be being cleared from this but meh. It's possible.

Can you please explain the Chaqa-clearing wagonomics to me?

I agree re lfischl.'

I can see your case re not-clearing Bozo or Rdr, though personally I think they both fought pretty hard against the "Save Eden" campaign.

I straight up do not understand the Chaqa part at all.

It literally comes down to do you think wolfs stacked 2 on this CW

Bonatogether(4) swordsman3003 President Eden BunnyGo Chaqa

When the easiest place to hide was here

BunnyGo(9) brainbomb Fluminator Bonatogether damo666 BK3K TheFlyingBoat KoalaAttack lfischl ghug

And when both wagons are from my pov town.

Why would you ever stack 2 on a wagon with 4 votes. Hell people were theorizing the ghug wagon switch D1 was to place all 4 on Bunny to hide. But I think Ghug switch EoD1 is infinitely more indicative of a wolf trying to not stack on a smaller wagon

its a theory, but i really see how its impossible for two people to be here. this is a game of unknowns and there are no hard and fast rules. i still think chaqa sus.

Correct me if wrong, we are at 8 v 2? do we not have wiggle room to shoot anyone even remotely suspicious? am i misunderstanding where we stand?

[Princess Neon]

I frankly don't find Chaqas behavior yesterday wolfy at all.

Their progression on me made sense with how they were misinterpreting a post as me retracting my claim and when Eden pointed out that I had doubled down their view on me switched.

Their hard town read on Eden mimicked mine and since I know I am a town it makes sense that another town night have felt about Eden how I did.

Chaqa didn't treat Eden as a wolf partner Chaqa acted like a town who got played by a towny wolf. But if there is more than 1 wolf on Bona I would be legitimately questioning the point of Ghug switching at all.

I have laid out my evidence. You are free to ignore it.

[KoalaAttack]

Anyways. Eden flip clears Chaqa to me. But people don't often trust wagonomics. I do though.

Lfischl 100% looks maf.

I do not think Bozo or RDR should be being cleared from this but meh. It's possible.

Can you please explain the Chaqa-clearing wagonomics to me?

I agree re lfischl.'

I can see your case re not-clearing Bozo or Rdr, though personally I think they both fought pretty hard against the "Save Eden" campaign.

I straight up do not understand the Chaqa part at all.

She's saying (as I Understand) that both Eden and Chaqa voted for Bona on D1. And therefore its impossible chaqa is scum.

feels realy flimsy to hang your hat on

I'd like to hear Princess Neon actually answer herself – but if this is true, I agree with you re "really flimsy". Like at least 50% of Mafia is WIFOM reverse psychology AFAICT. And folks on here tend to really analyze things deeply in many layers of it... A Mafia team following a "standard playbook" just seems so... unlikely?

[KoalaAttack]

koala, youre also in my strong town vibe pool. i feel like if youre scum, youre a great actor. and you seem to honest to be a good scum liar

Aww, thanks mate – but that shall not affect my Suspicion of you. I am surrounded by Mafias!

[BK3K]

koala, youre also in my strong town vibe pool. i feel like if youre scum, youre a great actor. and you seem to honest to be a good scum liar

Aww, thanks mate – but that shall not affect my Suspicion of you. I am surrounded by Mafias!

lol i'm just towncoring you, not complimenting you. if only based on the way you post, i have a hard time believing youre a good liar.

if you do flip scum, my hat's off to you

[KoalaAttack]

Anyways. Eden flip clears Chaqa to me. But people don't often trust wagonomics. I do though.

Lfischl 100% looks maf.

I do not think Bozo or RDR should be being cleared from this but meh. It's possible.

Can you please explain the Chaqa-clearing wagonomics to me?

I agree re lfischl.'

I can see your case re not-clearing Bozo or Rdr, though personally I think they both fought pretty hard against the "Save Eden" campaign.

I straight up do not understand the Chaqa part at all.

It literally comes down to do you think wolfs stacked 2 on this CW

Bonatogether(4) swordsman3003 President Eden BunnyGo Chaqa

When the easiest place to hide was here

BunnyGo(9) brainbomb Fluminator Bonatogether damo666 BK3K TheFlyingBoat KoalaAttack lfischl ghug

And when both wagons are from my pov town.

Why would you ever stack 2 on a wagon with 4 votes. Hell people were theorizing the ghug wagon switch D1 was to place all 4 on Bunny to hide. But I think Ghug switch EoD1 is infinitely more indicative of a wolf trying to not stack on a smaller wagon

Thank you.

This makes a lot of sense. But I think one question worth asking is: what is the level of experience of your potential Mafia suspects?

I, for one, would have never thought about this kind of thing back during D1 if I were Mafia. Now, I know that myself and say BK3K are one one extreme end of the spectrum, and some ultra-experienced folks on another ... but what about the middle where most folks would tend to fall statistically?

[BK3K]

were actuall at 7v2, i miscounted worcej in total count.

so 6v2 after night kill.

then miskill -> night kill puts us at 4v2

miskill > nk puts us at 2v2.

that's a KILO or a loss?

I think we have two safe miss kills, possibly 1