MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

If there was a busser I’d stake it being Rivera.

I don’t think there was though

[President Eden]

If there was a busser I’d stake it being Rivera.

I don’t think there was though

so did all 4 mafia vote BunnyGo?

[BK3K]

PE, why were you on damo from the very start on D2? Why on D3?

Rivera was very early on ghug N2, only vote at one point and then never left. Chaqa, why do you think he's the busser?

[BK3K]

PE, why were you on damo from the very start on D2? Why on D3?

Rivera was very early on ghug N2, only vote at one point and then never left. Chaqa, why do you think he's the busser?

Neon and Eden, why are you voting Rivera?

[President Eden]

PE, why were you on damo from the very start on D2? Why on D3?

Rivera was very early on ghug N2, only vote at one point and then never left. Chaqa, why do you think he's the busser?

check my N1 for the damo case, thought we had good reasons to believe damo was scum

[President Eden]

PE, why were you on damo from the very start on D2? Why on D3?

Rivera was very early on ghug N2, only vote at one point and then never left. Chaqa, why do you think he's the busser?

Neon and Eden, why are you voting Rivera?

he at least deserves to be a wagon

I’m not sure who I want to kill most here

[Chaqa]

If there was a busser I’d stake it being Rivera.

I don’t think there was though

so did all 4 mafia vote BunnyGo?

Statistically unlikely but it appears possible

[bozotheclown]

Well, I miss EOD and you kill an innocent Bunny.

I am starting to move 3K and fisch to my scum pile, together with TFB. Probably wrong on one of them as all 3 scum voting Bunny isn't likely. I am also starting to get bad vibes from Ghug.

tldr

damo sus
ghug sus
bona ???

i've liked bona's posting tonight so i'm more inclined to think we're in world #2 if ghug is scum

So rdrivera started posting about suspecting ghug before PE N1. rdrivera was also way out front on the ghug/TFB/lfischl/BK3K mafia team idea, although he seems to have changed his mind on at least TFB.

[bozotheclown]

So we breathe sanity back into the game

TOWN
bozo
koala
rdrivera
bona
eden
neon

NULL
lfischl
BK

Scum
TheFlyingBoat
Damo
Chaqa

Who was bussing? Caught Eden, rdr or both?

By my logic it could be either. But i actively town read Eden so

Chaqa TFB rdr then!

I could peice this together in then minutes but ive already pretty much done so.

Scum
rdrivera-TFB-eden
rdrivera-koala-eden
rdrivera-chaqa-koala
rdrivera-tfb-koala
rivera-eden-koala

these the are teams I see most likely.

my top suspect is rivera. but you do you town.

also the reasoning on why koala is scum is when he became sympathetic to damo during the day 3 phase, and bought into damos conspiracies and seemed to white knight him vs me. He claimed that damo if town probably beleived his theories, and this was at a time when no sane person couldve imagined damo was actually serious and was doing anything other than spamming the game.

review the times where rdrivera and koala talk. there is forced scum distancing in riveras posts to koala. and rivera seems almost angry with him and it feels off and very sus.

koala also pushed the im new card way too hard. and kept asking for clarity on what the WCS pathway to a loss was. And I think this was by design to keep reminding people he is just new and could never be evil here. probably coaching by eden or rivera or chaqa

[Bonatogether]

bozo what does this mean

[bozotheclown]

bozo what does this mean

I am not sure what you are asking about.

[bozotheclown]

bozo what does this mean

I am not sure what you are asking about.

[Bonatogether]

i don't understand these posts

[bozotheclown]

I am not sure how the double post happened, I did not think it was even supposed to be possible to make 2 posts that quickly.

[bozotheclown]

i don't understand these posts

I was pointing out how prevalent the Chaqa and TFB scum reads have been.

[bozotheclown]

The consensus around the TFB/lfischl/BK3K/Chaqa POE makes me think there are 2 mis-kill targets in that group, and some distancing, so probably 2 of the 3 mafia as well. If that is the case, I am not sure which of Bonatogether, KoalaAttack, PE, and rdrivera would be the other mafia.

BK3K not participating in the mutual suspicion among TFB/lfischl/Chaqa may be an indication that he is one of the mis-kill targets. I don't think lfischl and Chaqa are likely mafia together, so maybe TFB/lfischl or TFB/Chaqa.

[bozotheclown]

All the suspicion of TFB without votes to back it up makes me think that TFB is a good DK today.

[bozotheclown]

Also I think we should flip TFB next

What made you come out voting for Chaqa D4?

[Bonatogether]

All the suspicion of TFB without votes to back it up makes me think that TFB is a good DK today.

what? there's like 1 person less on boat man than the current leading wagon

[bozotheclown]

spitballing some more thoughts that I'm too tired to investigate.

- do we have any reason to think scum would not simply park on damo the entire day? 7 people (myself, BK, Bona, Chaqa, lfischl, rdr, Boat) did exactly that. brain, bozo, and Koala shopped around for other options, Neon locked in on Chaqa. even if all mafia just locked in damo, a majority of the people who did it are town, which made it the perfect hiding spot.

- was ghug trying to protect Bona EOD1 with his chaotic vote shenanigans? ghug doesn't have much respect for Bona's ability to fight out of a miskill, so he might go out of his way to protect Bona by stirring up enough other wagons to cause a cascade on some random townie. not well hashed out but just a thought that occurs to me on review of EOD1 votes

- I realize none of y'all can say this with any confidence, but I know both counterwagons to ghug were town, and I also independently feel pretty good about bozo and rdr, so I'm strongly inclined to believe there were no mafia busing ghug. I'll have to dig deeper into this, but I think "what were the mafia doing EOD2?" is a crucial question that I can help answer when I'm not running out of steam lol. i'll try to revisit this tomorrow with more conclusive work. but my hipfire guess is 1 scum between Bona/TFB and 3 scum among TFB/Bona/BK/lfischl/Chaqa

I'm jumping around a bit looking at EOD2, trying to put together what kind of game dynamic had to be in play for the mafia for D2 to end in us killing ghug. Really feels like ghug was either flat out abandoned with 2-3 afk/lurking teammates or that 1-2 of his teammates were afk and 1-2 were committed to a not-damo vote (especially a ghug bus). Maybe at most TFB is mafia and was voting to save ghug.

AFKs/lurkers EOD2:
Bonatogether (last posted at T-7:10, first post of N2 at T+4:29 - true AFK)
KoalaAttack (last posted at T-1:17, first post of N2 at T+2:15 - also true AFK)
lfischl (last posted at T-3:53, doesn't post at all N2 - ultimate giga AFK)
Chaqa (last posted at T-7:30, first post of N2 at T+0:25 - maybe AFK, maybe lurking; I can confirm D&D absence claims are legitimate but that doesn't mean he can't have been paying attention to the game while at D&D)
BK3K (last posted at T-0:51, first post of N2 at T+0:07 - maybe AFK, more likely lurking)

Committed EOD2:
rdrivera2005 (firmly anti-ghug all day, no firm read on damo most of the day, could not have reasonably justified a pivot IMO)

I know I'm not it, but now knowing that damo was town, objectively it would be reasonable to put me in the committed pile.

So from my POV, it's TFB/afk-lurker, rdrivera/afk-lurker, afk-lurker.

Notably, bozo seemed to stay uncommitted enough to vote ghug or damo D2, and was presented a pretty clear window to vote damo D2 and save ghug, and didn't, so I'm pretty sure bozo is just town.

Of the EOD2 afk-lurkers, Bona seems most likely town for reasons previously discussed. I feel a bit better about Koala than the others because of the D3 voting; Koala was at least looking for alternatives to damo, when I think scum, particularly newer scum, would have been content to take the virtually free miskill and just park on damo all day. I don't know if that's enough, and I definitely had my suspicions raised a bit with the exchange that he had with Bona last night, but it's probably gonna have to be good enough when we only get one miss.

This leaves me with a pool, in no particular order, of TheFlyingBoat, rdrivera2005, BK3K, lfischl, and Chaqa. Intellectual honesty requires me to point out that I should be in the town's overall pool as well. I'll see if I can figure out how to show you that with the time remaining.

What specifically changed your mind about rdrivera?