MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

My PoE is unexpectedly widened.

Treehuggers
brainbomb
President Eden

I'm Blue Da Ba Dee Tier
bozotheclown

Sussy Bakas
BK3K
Bonatogether
KoalaAttack
rdrivera2005
Princess Neon
TheFlyingBoat

Unconfirmed Scumbos
lfischl

running out of targets eh

Too many targets, really.

[KoalaAttack]

I have 2 best practice questions for experienced Townies:


(1) During the last game and portions of this game, I heard the sentiment of "don't put too much water into D1 votes" – yet a lot of you seem to be engaged in D1 Voting analysis as the cornerstone of your theories. Can someone please clarify the accepted wisdom around around this?

Should I try to take a stab or is it not worth the time?


(2) Given that I have access to last game's Discord with the Mafia chat of lfishl, Bozo, and rdrivera discussing their evil ploys to murder innocent koalas... Is it game-ethics acceptable and/or worth the time to go read through that if I have Suspicions about them?

[lfischl]

I have 2 best practice questions for experienced Townies:


(1) During the last game and portions of this game, I heard the sentiment of "don't put too much water into D1 votes" – yet a lot of you seem to be engaged in D1 Voting analysis as the cornerstone of your theories. Can someone please clarify the accepted wisdom around around this?

Should I try to take a stab or is it not worth the time?


(2) Given that I have access to last game's Discord with the Mafia chat of lfishl, Bozo, and rdrivera discussing their evil ploys to murder innocent koalas... Is it game-ethics acceptable and/or worth the time to go read through that if I have Suspicions about them?

For the second one I know you are allowed to go look at previous game threads so I would assume its allowed but not sure

[lfischl]

Also I think we should flip TFB next

[KoalaAttack]

I have 2 best practice questions for experienced Townies:


(1) During the last game and portions of this game, I heard the sentiment of "don't put too much water into D1 votes" – yet a lot of you seem to be engaged in D1 Voting analysis as the cornerstone of your theories. Can someone please clarify the accepted wisdom around around this?

Should I try to take a stab or is it not worth the time?


(2) Given that I have access to last game's Discord with the Mafia chat of lfishl, Bozo, and rdrivera discussing their evil ploys to murder innocent koalas... Is it game-ethics acceptable and/or worth the time to go read through that if I have Suspicions about them?

For the second one I know you are allowed to go look at previous game threads so I would assume its allowed but not sure

Thank you!

And what's your opinion on (1)? Or a reason not to share one? I am asking before assuming most-Suspicious-reason possible :)

[Bonatogether]

I have 2 best practice questions for experienced Townies:


(1) During the last game and portions of this game, I heard the sentiment of "don't put too much water into D1 votes" – yet a lot of you seem to be engaged in D1 Voting analysis as the cornerstone of your theories. Can someone please clarify the accepted wisdom around around this?

Should I try to take a stab or is it not worth the time?


(2) Given that I have access to last game's Discord with the Mafia chat of lfishl, Bozo, and rdrivera discussing their evil ploys to murder innocent koalas... Is it game-ethics acceptable and/or worth the time to go read through that if I have Suspicions about them?

day 1 is very hard to read into without any information, but once you establish a lot of information, it's the day you know the most about. if you think you can get something, do it.

i've never heard why you couldn't

[Bonatogether]

thank you for the +1, boat man

[KoalaAttack]

day 1 is very hard to read into without any information, but once you establish a lot of information, it's the day you know the most about. if you think you can get something, do it.

i've never heard why you couldn't

Thank you.

That also makes a lot of sense with what I see brainbomb doing – focusing on say ghug's actions as Mafia or damo's actions as Town because experienced players will have a lot of awareness of "how will this vote will age to look 3 days later".

[lfischl]

I have 2 best practice questions for experienced Townies:


(1) During the last game and portions of this game, I heard the sentiment of "don't put too much water into D1 votes" – yet a lot of you seem to be engaged in D1 Voting analysis as the cornerstone of your theories. Can someone please clarify the accepted wisdom around around this?

Should I try to take a stab or is it not worth the time?


(2) Given that I have access to last game's Discord with the Mafia chat of lfishl, Bozo, and rdrivera discussing their evil ploys to murder innocent koalas... Is it game-ethics acceptable and/or worth the time to go read through that if I have Suspicions about them?

day 1 is very hard to read into without any information, but once you establish a lot of information, it's the day you know the most about. if you think you can get something, do it.

i've never heard why you couldn't

^ this koala

[President Eden]

I have 2 best practice questions for experienced Townies:


(1) During the last game and portions of this game, I heard the sentiment of "don't put too much water into D1 votes" – yet a lot of you seem to be engaged in D1 Voting analysis as the cornerstone of your theories. Can someone please clarify the accepted wisdom around around this?

Should I try to take a stab or is it not worth the time?


(2) Given that I have access to last game's Discord with the Mafia chat of lfishl, Bozo, and rdrivera discussing their evil ploys to murder innocent koalas... Is it game-ethics acceptable and/or worth the time to go read through that if I have Suspicions about them?

1) D1 can be valuable in context (frequently it is!) depending on the situation. Sorry that's not more helpful but it's the only factually correct answer lol. Sometimes D1 sucks and is useless sometimes D1 decides the game by itself.
2) Nothing wrong with viewing past scum chats.

[KoalaAttack]

Thank you lfischl, President Eden, and anyone else responding to those questions!

[Bonatogether]

damn ignored

[President Eden]

damn ignored

fucking bodied

[KoalaAttack]

day 1 is very hard to read into without any information, but once you establish a lot of information, it's the day you know the most about. if you think you can get something, do it.

i've never heard why you couldn't

Thank you.

That also makes a lot of sense with what I see brainbomb doing – focusing on say ghug's actions as Mafia or damo's actions as Town because experienced players will have a lot of awareness of "how will this vote will age to look 3 days later".

No I said Thank You to you Bona – red above – are we back to Suspicious buddying just as you were about to finally leave the Prime Suspects List?

[President Eden]

i'll buddy you koala

[President Eden]

Big Huge Case Against Chaqa

I decided to review interactions that a specific subset of players had with ghug - the non-BunnyGo voters. I started with the assumption that not all four mafia voted for BunnyGo, which is admittedly an arbitrary assumption, but not an unfair one given past behavior of mafia teams. Then, removing people I know to be town, I'm left with this list:

- swordsman -> Neon
- Chaqa
- rdrivera2005
- bozotheclown

I removed Neon from consideration for two reasons.
(1) She's either Doctor or lying about it (which under the circumstances = scum, IMO; call it "bait" all you wish, but I see no method by which such a claim could actually bait anything when she did it). If she's lying about it, the real Doctor will eventually reveal. If she's not lying about it, she's town and I don't have to care anymore.
(2) swordsman and Neon literally did not interact with ghug at all. Neon literally could not have interacted with ghug as she subbed in after ghug died. So even if swordsman had interacted with Neon, Neon wouldn't be able to do anything useful to explain any interesting interactions in either direction. Pointless.

That obviously leaves Chaqa, rdrivera, and bozo.

Bozo is the least likely scum of that pool based on his comparatively extensive interactions with ghug during the night phase. I can't be assed to actually quote anything because there's so many posts, but if you go back and look at N1 in particular, you'll see bozo very extensively questioning ghug about vote progression near the end of D1 (final 30 mins especially), when ghug was shifting wagons around for reasons still unknown to me. That final 30 minute window is a very odd time for scum buddies to be extensively interacting IMO. Not impossible, just doesn't strike me as intuitive, because scum buddies would generally realize they need to interact earlier in the phase than that and probably would have orchestrated something earlier. Plus, it's not like bozo gave ghug any off-ramps. If bozo bussed ghug then it was a very committed push very early, which is unlike bozo's M.O. in my recollection.

rdrivera actually had more extensive interaction with ghug than Chaqa did, despite Chaqa lapping rdrivera in posts several times over. Both players had opposite progressions on ghug - rdrivera started out softly townreading ghug D1 but transitioned to suspicion by N1 and ultimately voted ghug out D2. You could argue that this was the result of a premeditated bus, but that seems difficult to square with the knowledge that damo is town, because surely it would have been easier for rdrivera to just lay off the gas. Meanwhile, Chaqa starts out shading ghug D1 but then transitions to a townread by D2 with no specific desire to stop ghug's wagon. Chaqa ultimately lands on damo. I think this is much more indicative of a bus as it becomes less committal over time. I also selfishly know I'm town and thus that ghug was the only mafia wagon available near EOD2, so Chaqa might have felt uncertain that ghug was going to survive and might have wanted to avoid overextending to save ghug, instead just opting to quietly vote the better town counterwagon and hope that that's enough.

Which it almost was, until the final minute, where literally every person who didn't vote BunnyGo D1 + hasn't claimed Doctor elected to vote ghug off, except Chaqa.

TLDR Chaqa's dancing with ghug looks far more like the part of a scum buddy than anyone else who is outside the D1 BunnyGo voters, so if you think the assumption that not all 4 mafia voted BunnyGo D1 is true, Chaqa is scum

[President Eden]

er, wait, lol, Chaqa was on Koala.

i'm jumping off a bridge now bye

[President Eden]

but anyway everything else is true and i'm dying of shame over here don't look at me

[KoalaAttack]

i'll buddy you koala

Joke or Suspicious? :)

Assuming joke, but when I die, regardless of how I die, please Suspect everyone who is buddying up to me!

Think about it:

- It's pretty obvious that buddying up triggers me to Suspect you.
- Why would any Townie in their right mind do this?

[BK3K]

i'll buddy you koala

Joke or Suspicious? :)

Assuming joke, but when I die, regardless of how I die, please Suspect everyone who is buddying up to me!

Think about it:

- It's pretty obvious that buddying up triggers me to Suspect you.
- Why would any Townie in their right mind do this?

Because we made peace and are friends now