MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[Bonatogether]

my words are 5.65 letters long, on average, and the next closest is bozo at 5.38 letters per word

[President Eden]

i’m a teenager and i like to sound smart

we know

[Bonatogether]

i’m a teenager and i like to sound smart

we know

tip jar is off to the side

[KoalaAttack]

So this is interesting:

Completely separately from anything Damo-or-Doc-related, I reckon that hammering now takes away the "I thought the day was longer and was planning to post late in the day" excuse from a potentially Mafia Super-Lurker lfischl, who just won another game as a Super-Lurker Mafia, and from what I hear is on a roll of 2 evil victories and counting...

Now what are the odds I roll mafia 3 games in a row

gambler's fallacy

Reposting this as it has apparently been missed.

what I will say about this is I was not saved, and why would the mafia even NK me

lurker's fallacy

lurker's fallacy

wdym

i made it up

Bona posts Gambler's Fallacy and Lurker's Fallacy in rapid-fire succession. lfischl immediately responds asking WDYM re non-existent Lurker's Fallacy.

But note how lfischl does not ask WDYM re Gambler's Fallacy which is a well known concept. Which implies that lfischl does indeed know what the Gambler's Fallacy is.

Yet lfischl still posts his bit re "what are the odds" even knowing about that it's incorrect due to Gambler's Fallacy

Is this a Mafia slip? Suspicious!

[KoalaAttack]

Given the Gambler's Fallacy Slip Suspicion I just mentioned, lfischl now passes Princess Neon as the most suspicious of the lurkers in my mind.

But the thing is, flipping lfischl would give almost no new info on other people. So I think it's not the most urgent.

In other news, lfischl said nothing to discredit brainbombs Town Clear, which is now 100% confirmed. So there is a Town Clear willing to join that wagon.

And also, Chaqa has unilaterally declared that lfischl is clear town on multiple occasions without providing any coherent rationale AFAICT.

##VOTE Chaqa

But I would also be open to go back to Damo, who is now moving from NAI to Suspect on my list – and remains a very high-value flip. BTW, Damo being Mafia would almost clear TFB in my mind, as I believe there is a very strong unpairing between the too. And I know a few other folks expressed pairing/unpairing theories re Damo, which I think is a good thing for a potential flip.

[KoalaAttack]

*** "that wagon" was meant to be "that Chaqa's wagon" above

[lfischl]

So this is interesting:

Now what are the odds I roll mafia 3 games in a row

gambler's fallacy

what I will say about this is I was not saved, and why would the mafia even NK me

lurker's fallacy

wdym

i made it up

Bona posts Gambler's Fallacy and Lurker's Fallacy in rapid-fire succession. lfischl immediately responds asking WDYM re non-existent Lurker's Fallacy.

But note how lfischl does not ask WDYM re Gambler's Fallacy which is a well known concept. Which implies that lfischl does indeed know what the Gambler's Fallacy is.

Yet lfischl still posts his bit re "what are the odds" even knowing about that it's incorrect due to Gambler's Fallacy

Is this a Mafia slip? Suspicious!

Gonna be honest no clue what the first one is either

[Princess Neon]

I'm gonna be honest I can only read into vote spew right now

I think Eden is infinitely townier since I've joined this game than Chaqa and I like how they've approached me here today.

I think Eden is just town so I think Chaqa is always mafia.

I know you have not caught up on the current game state, but PE is very capable of saying the right things as mafia.

Can you please explain why you are confident one and only one of PE and Chaqa is mafia?

The ending vote counts indicates they are never W/W

Specifically D1

[Princess Neon]

i hate these posts from bozo

Since there is such a consensus on damo, he obviously is going to be flipped before the end of the game, but doing it today wastes a very good opportunity for town.

If damo is DKed today, regardless of whether he is mafia or town, if we are about to DK a mafia at D4 EOD, and the doctor is still hidden, as would be preferable, the mafia about to be DKed can claim doctor at EOD and potentially cause us to waste one of our available mis-kills, force the the doctor to counterclaim, or both.

However, if we do not DK damo D3, and we about to DK a mafia at D3 EOD, if they claim doctor, it will redirect the DK to damo, who is either mafia, or a mis-kill that we are going to make eventually anyway.

This takes away a potential opportunity from the mafia.

The downside is that we lose the information we would get from the confirmation of damo's alignment, but I think that can wait until D4.

what about the obvious issue of us running up a townie here and damo actually getting to live another day? are we going to just pretend that we're killing somebody else but then all handshake agree to go back to damo? is the mafia supposed to be even remotely moved by this?

hate this. this reads like a bunch of rationalization for saving damo.

You keep forgetting that you are not supposed to know TFB's alignment yet.

If you are town, I would think that you would also consider that the mafia targeted a TFB voter.

that was in response to the prompt "why would mafia not nk town bozo." the obvious answer is that they see you as a reliable patsy to miskill people after damo flips mafia. since "people" here means me and TFB according to your theory at the time, I know that's at least half right, and it just about has to be totally right (otherwise, if you're town and going after TFB correctly, you probably SHOULD be dead - so the correct answer to "why wasn't town bozo shot" almost has to be "because town bozo is wrong"). I've been townreading Boat since N1ish because I think he wouldn't bus damo D1 in the spot where he accused damo. it makes perfect sense to me.

you didn't even try to read what you quoted in context. this reeks of bad faith

and now you're here trying to BS some reason to keep damo alive for another day when he's obvscum and a question that we all know needs resolving.

welcome to the scum pool

+1

[rdrivera2005]

i hate these posts from bozo

Since there is such a consensus on damo, he obviously is going to be flipped before the end of the game, but doing it today wastes a very good opportunity for town.

If damo is DKed today, regardless of whether he is mafia or town, if we are about to DK a mafia at D4 EOD, and the doctor is still hidden, as would be preferable, the mafia about to be DKed can claim doctor at EOD and potentially cause us to waste one of our available mis-kills, force the the doctor to counterclaim, or both.

However, if we do not DK damo D3, and we about to DK a mafia at D3 EOD, if they claim doctor, it will redirect the DK to damo, who is either mafia, or a mis-kill that we are going to make eventually anyway.

This takes away a potential opportunity from the mafia.

The downside is that we lose the information we would get from the confirmation of damo's alignment, but I think that can wait until D4.

what about the obvious issue of us running up a townie here and damo actually getting to live another day? are we going to just pretend that we're killing somebody else but then all handshake agree to go back to damo? is the mafia supposed to be even remotely moved by this?

hate this. this reads like a bunch of rationalization for saving damo.

If you are town, I would think that you would also consider that the mafia targeted a TFB voter.

that was in response to the prompt "why would mafia not nk town bozo." the obvious answer is that they see you as a reliable patsy to miskill people after damo flips mafia. since "people" here means me and TFB according to your theory at the time, I know that's at least half right, and it just about has to be totally right (otherwise, if you're town and going after TFB correctly, you probably SHOULD be dead - so the correct answer to "why wasn't town bozo shot" almost has to be "because town bozo is wrong"). I've been townreading Boat since N1ish because I think he wouldn't bus damo D1 in the spot where he accused damo. it makes perfect sense to me.

you didn't even try to read what you quoted in context. this reeks of bad faith

and now you're here trying to BS some reason to keep damo alive for another day when he's obvscum and a question that we all know needs resolving.

welcome to the scum pool

+1

Why? Explain me in your own words why Bozo's idea is bad?

[Princess Neon]

Backing off the hammer is so dumb.

Just flip him and be done with it so we don't waste our time.

Kill this first

[Princess Neon]

Thank you. So if even Damo himself says this, my understanding is we are just waiting for lfishl to not claim to assign 100% Cleared Townie to brainbomb.

Agreed.

And TownDamo dies followed by TownBrain. Marvellous play town.

I am currently having this feel actually

[damo666]

I'm gonna be honest I can only read into vote spew right now

I think Eden is infinitely townier since I've joined this game than Chaqa and I like how they've approached me here today.

I think Eden is just town so I think Chaqa is always mafia.

I know you have not caught up on the current game state, but PE is very capable of saying the right things as mafia.

Can you please explain why you are confident one and only one of PE and Chaqa is mafia?

The ending vote counts indicates they are never W/W

Specifically D1

Why can't they be town town?

[Princess Neon]

@lfischl please simply post either

"I know brain to be a liar"

or

"I do not know brain to be a liar"

I know brain to not be lying. *anime sip emoji*

[Princess Neon]

i hate these posts from bozo


what about the obvious issue of us running up a townie here and damo actually getting to live another day? are we going to just pretend that we're killing somebody else but then all handshake agree to go back to damo? is the mafia supposed to be even remotely moved by this?

hate this. this reads like a bunch of rationalization for saving damo.


that was in response to the prompt "why would mafia not nk town bozo." the obvious answer is that they see you as a reliable patsy to miskill people after damo flips mafia. since "people" here means me and TFB according to your theory at the time, I know that's at least half right, and it just about has to be totally right (otherwise, if you're town and going after TFB correctly, you probably SHOULD be dead - so the correct answer to "why wasn't town bozo shot" almost has to be "because town bozo is wrong"). I've been townreading Boat since N1ish because I think he wouldn't bus damo D1 in the spot where he accused damo. it makes perfect sense to me.

you didn't even try to read what you quoted in context. this reeks of bad faith

and now you're here trying to BS some reason to keep damo alive for another day when he's obvscum and a question that we all know needs resolving.

welcome to the scum pool

+1

Why? Explain me in your own words why Bozo's idea is bad?

Okay so what you do is. You take what Eden said right. Dumb it down about 50% make it sound really disjointed like someone's thoughts and words aren't adding up.

That's my answer.

Alternatively you just read what Eden said since it's the better explained smarter sounding version of what I would say. Thus +1.

[Princess Neon]

I know you have not caught up on the current game state, but PE is very capable of saying the right things as mafia.

Can you please explain why you are confident one and only one of PE and Chaqa is mafia?

The ending vote counts indicates they are never W/W

Specifically D1

Why can't they be town town?

It is extremely statistically unlikely that the CW to the D1 run away wagon in a 4 wolf set up doesn't have at least 1 wolf on it.

I know I'm town. Ergo one in Chaqa Eden which is like almost a guarantee by general mafia strategy.

[rdrivera2005]

+1

Why? Explain me in your own words why Bozo's idea is bad?

Okay so what you do is. You take what Eden said right. Dumb it down about 50% make it sound really disjointed like someone's thoughts and words aren't adding up.

That's my answer.

Alternatively you just read what Eden said since it's the better explained smarter sounding version of what I would say. Thus +1.

Well, welcome to my scumpool for sheeping Eden, agreeing Damo must die and voting Chaqa.

[damo666]

So brain is town and fairly obviously Bozo is town given the last second move to ghug.

From mpov this only leaves rdr and Eden as possible bussers. I strongly doubt rdr is scum, it is just possible Eden got caught in a bus with no time to do anything about it given the late moves but I can't see the motivation to bus at the time he votes so assume no bussers.

As the counterwagon and if there were no bussers I think at least one of TFB and Bona are scum and maybe both but TFB more likely.

I still think Chaqa is town so I think the remaining scum are in {TFB, Bona, Neon, lfischl} with a small chance of Eden or Chaqa. With 2 misskills left the game is just about winnable.

If you mk me we probably lose.

Many people think one and only one of TFB and me are scum. If this is the case TFB is scum and I recommend voting there. If we are both town then I think we are destined to lose anyway.

[damo666]

@lfischl please simply post either

"I know brain to be a liar"

or

"I do not know brain to be a liar"

I know brain to not be lying. *anime sip emoji*

I'm not sure if this is scum cockiness, stupid town play or clever misdirectional townplay.

[damo666]

The ending vote counts indicates they are never W/W

Specifically D1

Why can't they be town town?

It is extremely statistically unlikely that the CW to the D1 run away wagon in a 4 wolf set up doesn't have at least 1 wolf on it.

I know I'm town. Ergo one in Chaqa Eden which is like almost a guarantee by general mafia strategy.

Interesting. Given Eden's dissing of Bozo's plan accusing him of being scum when his vote makes him 95%+ town maybe Eden is scum and got caught in a bus. Hmmm.