MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[KoalaAttack]

Since there is such a consensus on damo, he obviously is going to be flipped before the end of the game, but doing it today wastes a very good opportunity for town.

If damo is DKed today, regardless of whether he is mafia or town, if we are about to DK a mafia at D4 EOD, and the doctor is still hidden, as would be preferable, the mafia about to be DKed can claim doctor at EOD and potentially cause us to waste one of our available mis-kills, force the the doctor to counterclaim, or both.

However, if we do not DK damo D3, and we about to DK a mafia at D3 EOD, if they claim doctor, it will redirect the DK to damo, who is either mafia, or a mis-kill that we are going to make eventually anyway.

This takes away a potential opportunity from the mafia.

The downside is that we lose the information we would get from the confirmation of damo's alignment, but I think that can wait until D4.

The logic of this strategy makes sense to me, but I have 2 caveats:

Caveat A – if this was Confirmed Townie brainbomb proposing this, it would be one thing, but you are not a Confirmed Townie. Last game, you also had solid Townie logic the entire game AFAICT... and then engaged in shameless koala murder as a Mafia. So I'm very wary of such remote deferral plans.

Caveat B – while this makes sense from the pure min-maxing of moves, what about the psychology of folks who are currently engaged in building all sorts theories on the premise of "Damo is Mafia". For example, Confirmed Townie brainbomb is going "Damo, Chaqa, then who can be a deep-lying Mafia with them"... Damo is clearly Town's overall Suspect #1, Chaqa is my personal Suspect #1 – but I for one sure would find it valuable to confirm whether this is the right play or a witch hunt that Mafia is all to happy to send us down.

Put another way, does it not help Mafia to prolong the state of ambiguity for a day – and does it not help Town to bring the state of confirmed clarity ASAP?

[bozotheclown]

The wagon was me, you, bunny, and ghug.
I'm going to assume you don't find me, bunny, or yourself suspicious?

Right, so I guess that only leaves Ghug, but I don't feel like Ghug is scum. Maybe it was right but lacked traction because no scum would touch it?

okay this damo-ghug+2 lurkers or newbie+lurker set it islooking way more plausible to me rn

But yeah I feel really good about my damo+ghug+2 lurkers call

TFB did not do anything the entire D2 to indicate he suspected ghug was mafia after saying he thought ghug was town N1, but takes credit for his "call" that ghug was mafia 2 minutes before EOD.

[brainbomb]

Since apparently this requires explanation

If I hadnt revealed I was saved the phase would be dead and people asking who was attacked and repeatedly challenging doc to out. which no one but scum wants.
scum knows they roleblocked me
scum knows they tried to kill me

there is nothing anti town whatsoever in claiming.

[damo666]

##vote theflyingboat

[brainbomb]

damo just needs to go

[bozotheclown]

the damo voters seemed less attached to their wagon than the voters on me - swords was afk, chaqa had declared i was scum, etc. almost the entire damo wagon swung towards bongo. the people voting me mostly didn't swing.

you could have learnt this if you read my vca post

That does not answer they question of why you think ghug voted for BunnyGo.

if damo is scum, then he just took the bottom out on his wagon

ghug did not need to do anything to protect damo other than not vote for him.
I think ghug voted for BunnyGo despite knowing it would look suspicious because he knew it would draw one vote away from TFB and one vote away from damo, making EOD you vs. BunnyGo.

[damo666]

Unless fish claims doc I guess brain is town

Disappointing.

[brainbomb]

you realize I was one of the first to push ghug
I consistently pushed ghug
I also shifted a wagon off you onto ghug

to keep dissing me repeatedly is just ignoring my contribution to this game

[bozotheclown]

Since there is such a consensus on damo, he obviously is going to be flipped before the end of the game, but doing it today wastes a very good opportunity for town.

If damo is DKed today, regardless of whether he is mafia or town, if we are about to DK a mafia at D4 EOD, and the doctor is still hidden, as would be preferable, the mafia about to be DKed can claim doctor at EOD and potentially cause us to waste one of our available mis-kills, force the the doctor to counterclaim, or both.

However, if we do not DK damo D3, and we about to DK a mafia at D3 EOD, if they claim doctor, it will redirect the DK to damo, who is either mafia, or a mis-kill that we are going to make eventually anyway.

This takes away a potential opportunity from the mafia.

The downside is that we lose the information we would get from the confirmation of damo's alignment, but I think that can wait until D4.

The logic of this strategy makes sense to me, but I have 2 caveats:

Caveat A – if this was Confirmed Townie brainbomb proposing this, it would be one thing, but you are not a Confirmed Townie. Last game, you also had solid Townie logic the entire game AFAICT... and then engaged in shameless koala murder as a Mafia. So I'm very wary of such remote deferral plans.

Caveat B – while this makes sense from the pure min-maxing of moves, what about the psychology of folks who are currently engaged in building all sorts theories on the premise of "Damo is Mafia". For example, Confirmed Townie brainbomb is going "Damo, Chaqa, then who can be a deep-lying Mafia with them"... Damo is clearly Town's overall Suspect #1, Chaqa is my personal Suspect #1 – but I for one sure would find it valuable to confirm whether this is the right play or a witch hunt that Mafia is all to happy to send us down.

Put another way, does it not help Mafia to prolong the state of ambiguity for a day – and does it not help Town to bring the state of confirmed clarity ASAP?

I understand your suspicion, and I agree part B is the one downside, as I pointed out, but I think the tradeoff is worth it for D3.

[President Eden]

I did not read what you said out of context, what you said was based on the assumption TFB is town.

let's try this again

brain asks: "why did they try to kill me instead of hypothetical town bozo?"

well, after damo and ghug, you are 100% unquestionably wrong about one suspect (me). and I townread the other one (tfb) because I don't think he would have chosen to start pushing his teammate damo when under fire in the way that he did (he went back and looked up past games where damo sorted reads alphabetically instead of in suspicion order).

so to me, answering the hypothetical "bozo is town, why didn't they nk him?" it's a very natural and obvious conclusion that they wrote off ghug and damo as losses, and after that they aren't worried about you, because your tunnels are legendary and they're at least 50% wrong here and i think fairly likely to be 100% wrong.

so I answer accordingly, and your reaction is "abuhhh ur not sposed to KNOW tfb is town!!" when i'm very obviously not speaking from knowledge of his alignment at all. you can't actually think that's what i'm doing. i'm speaking from knowledge of MY alignment, plus a read of tfb's. the context to that answer is abundantly clear and you just ripped it right out of that context. and I'm annoyed by it

As for the first part, yes, I think we can all agree to vote damo as a backup today if we have a doctor claim at EOD, and if not, we can DK damo D4.

so like, what happens if we run up a townie and nigh-confirmed scum damo gets another 72 hours. do you know? because I don't

towns in this community love to find every excuse under the sun not to bury nigh-confirmed scum for whatever reason and it's resulted in plenty of nigh-confirmed scum escaping for far longer than they deserve, and possibly altogether.

72 hours is a lot of time for some other galaxy brain to come up with some other 10000 iq reason not to kill the mafia. hell it's another 72 hours for us to actually catch a different mafia and then fuck up the EOD votes because town is divided on which mafia to kill. it's also another 72 hours of a foregone conclusion which will spike town apathy. and god forbid, I cannot imagine a world where damo is town, but if we're somehow wrong about damo then we would surely love to know THAT 72 hours earlier. I don't consider this last part a meaningful risk, but I figured I'd mention it because it IS possible, however remote.

all this stuff adds up to being a big net negative proposition IMO.

I do want to "keep damo alive for another day", but for a very good reason, and I do not see any way he can harm us D3 as mafia.

What possible scum motivation would I have for delaying a damo DK one day?

I covered this already above, not killing damo is another chance for him to actually escape somehow, town apathy is a real risk, etc. all these things that are downsides to town from this plan are incentives for mafia to do it.

but I have to admit that after trying to write a more coherent answer to your question that it would be pretty fucking wild to come out this brazenly and try to save a teammate. even with those prospective upsides to mafia, the risk of just going down with him is significant. so idk, maybe I was hasty. I still absolutely hate your idea lol.

Also, how can damo be both "obvscum" and "a question that we all know needs resolving"?

I meant "at the chopping block." as in, even setting aside him being obvscum to me and apparently everyone else at this point, there's no way he's getting nightkilled, so we're going to have to flip him.

~~

moved this part to the end so it doesn't get in the way.

I do not dismiss the possibility that you are town and TFB is not, but apparently you do, and that is what I do not understand.

I have functionally dismissed TFB as a plausible mafia suspect if damo is mafia, yes. I think mafia TFB in his position doesn't bother to go dig up past games to prove a tell that he apparently had for damo. this exchange with Bunny felt very sincere to me too:

Tbf I explained I thought BK was giving scummy vibes earlier, I think some of the inactives trying to coast are scum and I think Damo might be.

Does he seem bored? A little.

Does his math suck? A lot

You may be on to something

Precisely! And his alphabetical reads list!

you're obviously welcome to disagree with me, by no stretch do I think this is some ironclad objectively locktown thing like brain claiming to be saved. but I feel pretty strongly about it even acknowledging this. scum TFB could have chosen to behave the way he did wrt scum damo, I just don't think he did.

[brainbomb]

whats more likely truth is that you cant stand me and your scum buddies outvoted you on killing me and youre salty about it

[President Eden]

The wagon was me, you, bunny, and ghug.
I'm going to assume you don't find me, bunny, or yourself suspicious?

Right, so I guess that only leaves Ghug, but I don't feel like Ghug is scum. Maybe it was right but lacked traction because no scum would touch it?

okay this damo-ghug+2 lurkers or newbie+lurker set it islooking way more plausible to me rn

But yeah I feel really good about my damo+ghug+2 lurkers call

TFB did not do anything the entire D2 to indicate he suspected ghug was mafia after saying he thought ghug was town N1, but takes credit for his "call" that ghug was mafia 2 minutes before EOD.

yea I'll give you credit for the fact that he's trying very hard to steal my credit for the damo/ghug/2 lurkers theory and my argument for ghug

I can believe that he actually believes that as town though. tbh I kind of ignored it because I had a town prior on him and didn't want to start a shitfest with a townread lol.

[bozotheclown]

I did not read what you said out of context, what you said was based on the assumption TFB is town.

let's try this again

brain asks: "why did they try to kill me instead of hypothetical town bozo?"

well, after damo and ghug, you are 100% unquestionably wrong about one suspect (me). and I townread the other one (tfb) because I don't think he would have chosen to start pushing his teammate damo when under fire in the way that he did (he went back and looked up past games where damo sorted reads alphabetically instead of in suspicion order).

so to me, answering the hypothetical "bozo is town, why didn't they nk him?" it's a very natural and obvious conclusion that they wrote off ghug and damo as losses, and after that they aren't worried about you, because your tunnels are legendary and they're at least 50% wrong here and i think fairly likely to be 100% wrong.

so I answer accordingly, and your reaction is "abuhhh ur not sposed to KNOW tfb is town!!" when i'm very obviously not speaking from knowledge of his alignment at all. you can't actually think that's what i'm doing. i'm speaking from knowledge of MY alignment, plus a read of tfb's. the context to that answer is abundantly clear and you just ripped it right out of that context. and I'm annoyed by it

As for the first part, yes, I think we can all agree to vote damo as a backup today if we have a doctor claim at EOD, and if not, we can DK damo D4.

so like, what happens if we run up a townie and nigh-confirmed scum damo gets another 72 hours. do you know? because I don't

towns in this community love to find every excuse under the sun not to bury nigh-confirmed scum for whatever reason and it's resulted in plenty of nigh-confirmed scum escaping for far longer than they deserve, and possibly altogether.

72 hours is a lot of time for some other galaxy brain to come up with some other 10000 iq reason not to kill the mafia. hell it's another 72 hours for us to actually catch a different mafia and then fuck up the EOD votes because town is divided on which mafia to kill. it's also another 72 hours of a foregone conclusion which will spike town apathy. and god forbid, I cannot imagine a world where damo is town, but if we're somehow wrong about damo then we would surely love to know THAT 72 hours earlier. I don't consider this last part a meaningful risk, but I figured I'd mention it because it IS possible, however remote.

all this stuff adds up to being a big net negative proposition IMO.

I do want to "keep damo alive for another day", but for a very good reason, and I do not see any way he can harm us D3 as mafia.

What possible scum motivation would I have for delaying a damo DK one day?

I covered this already above, not killing damo is another chance for him to actually escape somehow, town apathy is a real risk, etc. all these things that are downsides to town from this plan are incentives for mafia to do it.

but I have to admit that after trying to write a more coherent answer to your question that it would be pretty fucking wild to come out this brazenly and try to save a teammate. even with those prospective upsides to mafia, the risk of just going down with him is significant. so idk, maybe I was hasty. I still absolutely hate your idea lol.

Also, how can damo be both "obvscum" and "a question that we all know needs resolving"?

I meant "at the chopping block." as in, even setting aside him being obvscum to me and apparently everyone else at this point, there's no way he's getting nightkilled, so we're going to have to flip him.

~~

moved this part to the end so it doesn't get in the way.

I do not dismiss the possibility that you are town and TFB is not, but apparently you do, and that is what I do not understand.

I have functionally dismissed TFB as a plausible mafia suspect if damo is mafia, yes. I think mafia TFB in his position doesn't bother to go dig up past games to prove a tell that he apparently had for damo. this exchange with Bunny felt very sincere to me too:

Does he seem bored? A little.

Does his math suck? A lot

You may be on to something

Precisely! And his alphabetical reads list!

you're obviously welcome to disagree with me, by no stretch do I think this is some ironclad objectively locktown thing like brain claiming to be saved. but I feel pretty strongly about it even acknowledging this. scum TFB could have chosen to behave the way he did wrt scum damo, I just don't think he did.

What I said was partly a joke to emphasize that your explanation of the NK was based on TFB being town. I did not take it out of context because I included your post, I can't be expected to include all of the posts leading up to your post just to include context.

To be clear, the reason I suspect you could be mafia is because I think TFB is mafia, and I find your voting D1 regards to TFB to be suspicious if TFB is in fact mafia. If we flip TFB and he is town, my suspicion of you will be significantly reduced.

[President Eden]

computer, recalibrate your humor diagnostics

[bozotheclown]

Right, so I guess that only leaves Ghug, but I don't feel like Ghug is scum. Maybe it was right but lacked traction because no scum would touch it?

okay this damo-ghug+2 lurkers or newbie+lurker set it islooking way more plausible to me rn

But yeah I feel really good about my damo+ghug+2 lurkers call

TFB did not do anything the entire D2 to indicate he suspected ghug was mafia after saying he thought ghug was town N1, but takes credit for his "call" that ghug was mafia 2 minutes before EOD.

yea I'll give you credit for the fact that he's trying very hard to steal my credit for the damo/ghug/2 lurkers theory and my argument for ghug

I can believe that he actually believes that as town though. tbh I kind of ignored it because I had a town prior on him and didn't want to start a shitfest with a townread lol.

I think ghug's D1 voting implicated TFB, and I would like him to be flipped before proceeding to look for mafia in lurkers.

[KoalaAttack]

I know my experience with Bozo is quite limited, but

...
What I said was partly a joke
...

A bit Suspicious.

[KoalaAttack]

I know my experience with Bozo is quite limited, but

...
What I said was partly a joke
...

A bit Suspicious.

Wait no, Bozo posted those Lesson Plans, right. I take it back.

[brainbomb]

I have a tinfoil theory about BK now. lol. if true bk/chaqa/eden would
make a ton of sense as the scumteam.

pondering if its worth explaining

[brainbomb]

Question for those voting me:

Do you think brain's reveal was a good idea.

If not, do you think I'm scum pushing a teammate?

Think carefully about these questions.

I don't think it's a bad one. We know a confirmed town for a day, and then he gets to be night killed and quit this forum lol. Had he not revealed, some one is still getting nk'd but we have a higher chance of mk. So yes, I'd reveal in the same position i think.

Are you playing the ground work to throw sus on him when you turn scum with the second question? I don't understand what you're asking

What does this mean? Where did I exude a desire to quit the forum?

Anybody else notice this?

the only person ive ever told I was quitting the forum too was eden in a private message and the mafia council. chaqa and eden are the only people who couldve relayed this to BK and ive never mentioned this game wanting to quit this forum.

so how did BK get such an idea?

[President Eden]

I have a tinfoil theory about BK now. lol. if true bk/chaqa/eden would
make a ton of sense as the scumteam.

pondering if its worth explaining

I would entertain two of those three guesses

Is it a team-dependent read or do you have something on BK and/or Chaqa individually? And does it still work if the team is BK/Chaqa/damo/ghug?