MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

Maybe Chaqa is just mafia here.

FMPOV one of these things must be true:
- All four mafia voted for BunnyGo
- One or more of Neon, Chaqa, bozo, and rdrivera are mafia

The only world I can seriously envision where all four mafia voted BunnyGo is if damo and Bona are mafia, in which case the mafia may have decided that the optics of all being on the same town counterwagon, though bad, were still better than having two of their own viably up for grabs. I don't think this is what happened though.

And out of the pool of people who didn't vote BunnyGo, Chaqa is the runaway pick IMO. I guess it could be Neon - her slot was a true null prior to her subbing in, and while she's seemed fine enough in her limited time in the game so far, it seems like it would be easy for her to put on a good first impression, considering the following:
1. She subbed at night, when scum chat is open, and didn't start posting for a few hours after subbing in
2. We have quite a bit of hard data already, so there's plenty of prompts to come up with something

But I think Chaqa makes more sense than Neon for that spot. Neon is kind of a "default" pick for me, whereas I can actually see where scum Chaqa fits into the ghug/damo/X/Y team I'm pretty sure we're dealing with.

(I guess I should do due diligence on rdrivera and bozo, but their posting screams town to me.)

The other one almost certainly has to be a lurker or "background" player based on D2 dynamics. I'd been thinking that ghug and damo had to be somewhat stranded near the end of D2, which is why the day was so stagnant. Chaqa is an honorary lurker for that because he was unexpectedly gone for D&D, and I think the final one is probably from that cloth too. I kind of selfishly think it's lfischl because the way he came out of nowhere to vote me (when I was the only viable counterwagon to two scum wagons) was so jarring to me, but admittedly I have no idea how to square Chaqa's insistence that lfischl is town. I guess BK fits the profile too, but he seems less likely than lfischl because he at least had laid a foundation for suspicion of me (however solid that foundation may or may not be). lfischl just blatantly pivoted to the mafia's preferred wagon with no explanation and then dipped, which I can totally see him doing as checked out scum.

[Chaqa]

Maybe Chaqa is just mafia here.

FMPOV one of these things must be true:
- All four mafia voted for BunnyGo
- One or more of Neon, Chaqa, bozo, and rdrivera are mafia

The only world I can seriously envision where all four mafia voted BunnyGo is if damo and Bona are mafia, in which case the mafia may have decided that the optics of all being on the same town counterwagon, though bad, were still better than having two of their own viably up for grabs. I don't think this is what happened though.

And out of the pool of people who didn't vote BunnyGo, Chaqa is the runaway pick IMO. I guess it could be Neon - her slot was a true null prior to her subbing in, and while she's seemed fine enough in her limited time in the game so far, it seems like it would be easy for her to put on a good first impression, considering the following:
1. She subbed at night, when scum chat is open, and didn't start posting for a few hours after subbing in
2. We have quite a bit of hard data already, so there's plenty of prompts to come up with something

But I think Chaqa makes more sense than Neon for that spot. Neon is kind of a "default" pick for me, whereas I can actually see where scum Chaqa fits into the ghug/damo/X/Y team I'm pretty sure we're dealing with.

(I guess I should do due diligence on rdrivera and bozo, but their posting screams town to me.)

The other one almost certainly has to be a lurker or "background" player based on D2 dynamics. I'd been thinking that ghug and damo had to be somewhat stranded near the end of D2, which is why the day was so stagnant. Chaqa is an honorary lurker for that because he was unexpectedly gone for D&D, and I think the final one is probably from that cloth too. I kind of selfishly think it's lfischl because the way he came out of nowhere to vote me (when I was the only viable counterwagon to two scum wagons) was so jarring to me, but admittedly I have no idea how to square Chaqa's insistence that lfischl is town. I guess BK fits the profile too, but he seems less likely than lfischl because he at least had laid a foundation for suspicion of me (however solid that foundation may or may not be). lfischl just blatantly pivoted to the mafia's preferred wagon with no explanation and then dipped, which I can totally see him doing as checked out scum.

Reverse Amogus theory, Eden

[bozotheclown]

I mean he also didn't vote for lfischl either and that's a trivial miskill. My guess as to why he didn't take me or damo out and chose to condemn Bunny over Bona is that he didn't view me as a valuable target to take out, which does hurt, but at the end of the day I guess he assumed I'd post a bunch of wallposts which no one would read and that my thoughts would be safely ignored.

ghug was careful to suggest he was changing his read of you near EOD in preparation for pushing other wagons at EOD. I don't know why he would bother doing that if you are town.

Maybe he wanted to pocket me and thought praise after a scum read would be less obvious than a blatant buddy? I mean it semi-worked as I did have some doubts and thought it might have been organic. Only the greater context of D1/N1 and then especially D2 convinced me he might be scum.

That is not impossible, but ghug deciding to pocket you and start a new wagon on BunnyGo at a time it seemed you would have been an easier mis-kill seems unlikely.

[bozotheclown]

There seems to be a theory either I or TFB are scum.

If this is true TFB is scum.

Could someone who assumes I'm scum please put that on hold and assume the opposite and explain to me why TFB is then scum.

TIA

Bozo would probably be a good person to answer this.

ghug helped save TFB from getting mis-killed D1 despite listing TFB as one of his top scum reads.

[bozotheclown]

For those questioning me tying the vote please tell me why my mk is better than a no kill.

From mpov I am 100% town ang although I townread ghug he was < 100%town.

I don't see why voting ghug is not the auto thing to do. I'm sure most town in that position would do likewise.

If you are town, as rdrivera already pointed out, a no-kill D2 would have cost us a mis-kill, and you would still be under suspicion D3 and likely cost us our second mis-kill.

[KoalaAttack]

For those questioning me tying the vote please tell me why my mk is better than a no kill.

From mpov I am 100% town ang although I townread ghug he was < 100%town.

I don't see why voting ghug is not the auto thing to do. I'm sure most town in that position would do likewise.

Well I asked this very question earlier but no-one answered. So I imagine it like this:

- If you are Townie, and you see that you are set to die – you know that anything you say will be revealed to be authentic to everyone else with 100% confidence after you die.

- If you have no good theories on Mafia, and are mostly NAI on everyone, then it maybe makes sense to protect yourself.

- But if you do have good theories, why not post them for all to see, knowing that your death will validate them and help catch a Mafia? It helps the Town progress towards a successful Mafia hunt, as opposed to continuing in the confused state.

Uh, but I certainly defer to the more experienced players if this is incorrect thinking. Just please explain why if that's the case.

[KoalaAttack]

I thought ghug was town but voted

A) hoping for a tie
B) at least i know i'm town

Lot to digest.

G'night.

Question for the group – if you are Town, and you closely losing to another player you believe is Town, is it better to tie the vote or to sacrifice yourself but make the sacrifice worth it, knowing that your final words will be proven true as your "dying declaration"? (Thank you Daredevil TV show.)

I apologize for straight up re-posting – but this seems very pertinent to the current discussion and I'd like to hear some takes from folks on this!

[bozotheclown]

Here is my current position on players, from most like mafia to most likely town:

damo: Trying to tie the D2 vote seemed very scum motivated, and ghug appears to have distance voted and then help protect damo D1.

TFB: ghug appears to have distance voted and then help protect TFB D1. TFB's sudden push on damo D1 for questionable reasons seems like a bus.

PE: Appears to have distance voted and then help protect TFB D1. I also question PE's unwillingness to consider TFB as a possible mafia candidate, and damo voting PE D1 now seems like a distance vote. If TFB turns out to be town, my suspicion of PE would be less.

Chaqa: The unexplained vote switch to TFB D1 EOD could be distance voting, and the scum claiming does seem like a possible scum ploy.

lfischl: Not enough information to provide an indication he is town.

Neon: Not much information, but swordsman's initial reaction and voting his counter wagon seems slightly more like a town reaction.

brainbomb: Capable of successfully bussing ghug and potentially damo, and the vote switch from damo to ghug in the last 2 minutes of D2 made a tie more likely.

rdrivera: Seems town, but capable of bussing ghug.

Bonatogether: Appears to have been a mafia mis-kill target D1.

BK3K: The willingness to vote for a number of players D1 would be unusual for an inexperience mafia player, and he does not seem concerned about drawing suspicion in general.

KoalaAttack: Questions about how to deal with low participants and how many mis-kills we have seem town motivated.

[bozotheclown]

For those questioning me tying the vote please tell me why my mk is better than a no kill.

From mpov I am 100% town ang although I townread ghug he was < 100%town.

I don't see why voting ghug is not the auto thing to do. I'm sure most town in that position would do likewise.

Well I asked this very question earlier but no-one answered. So I imagine it like this:

- If you are Townie, and you see that you are set to die – you know that anything you say will be revealed to be authentic to everyone else with 100% confidence after you die.

- If you have no good theories on Mafia, and are mostly NAI on everyone, then it maybe makes sense to protect yourself.

- But if you do have good theories, why not post them for all to see, knowing that your death will validate them and help catch a Mafia? It helps the Town progress towards a successful Mafia hunt, as opposed to continuing in the confused state.

Uh, but I certainly defer to the more experienced players if this is incorrect thinking. Just please explain why if that's the case.

I think those are good reasons why what damo did looks scum motivated, in addition to what I mentioned about a no-kill costing us 1 of our 2 mis-kills, providing the mafia a strong motivation for a no-kill in that situation.

[bozotheclown]

I thought ghug was town but voted

A) hoping for a tie
B) at least i know i'm town

Lot to digest.

G'night.

Question for the group – if you are Town, and you closely losing to another player you believe is Town, is it better to tie the vote or to sacrifice yourself but make the sacrifice worth it, knowing that your final words will be proven true as your "dying declaration"? (Thank you Daredevil TV show.)

I apologize for straight up re-posting – but this seems very pertinent to the current discussion and I'd like to hear some takes from folks on this!

Generally, forcing a tie as a non-PR town is considered a negative for town, because it does not resolve the wagons and likely sets up the same situation the following day, while the mafia still get closer to winning with a NK. For example, if damo had been successful in forcing a tied vote, ghug and damo would still likely be the wagons D3 and we would be down to only 1 available mis-kill.

[brainbomb]

By the way Doc

I think saving bozo is a good idea here. like bozo is out here solo carrying this game

[KoalaAttack]

Question for the group – if you are Town, and you closely losing to another player you believe is Town, is it better to tie the vote or to sacrifice yourself but make the sacrifice worth it, knowing that your final words will be proven true as your "dying declaration"? (Thank you Daredevil TV show.)

I apologize for straight up re-posting – but this seems very pertinent to the current discussion and I'd like to hear some takes from folks on this!

Generally, forcing a tie as a non-PR town is considered a negative for town, because it does not resolve the wagons and likely sets up the same situation the following day, while the mafia still get closer to winning with a NK. For example, if damo had been successful in forcing a tied vote, ghug and damo would still likely be the wagons D3 and we would be down to only 1 available mis-kill.

Thank you

[President Eden]

I just can't imagine a scumteam of ghug, damo, Chaqa, TFB being like "guys what if we just did nothing the entire game and then panic bussed each other when called out"

[brainbomb]

I think ghug took it personal at being scumread by me especially. he wanted to convinced me that I was being unfair in how I read his behavior.

not sure damo ever showed any signs of being offended at being scumread

and chaqa flat out told people to just kill him

[brainbomb]

being reactionary and defensive
lashing back at others

those are scum traits depending on how they look. flat out rage and irritability maybe is more towny even though it looks uglier

[President Eden]

I think ghug took it personal at being scumread by me especially. he wanted to convinced me that I was being unfair in how I read his behavior.

not sure damo ever showed any signs of being offended at being scumread

and chaqa flat out told people to just kill him

Yeah those three are fine as part of a team. And TFB is certainly tied to them (well, damo anyway, ghug to a lesser extent, Chaqa not really). I just don’t think it’s as the final teammate

[brainbomb]

I just can't imagine a scumteam of ghug, damo, Chaqa, TFB being like "guys what if we just did nothing the entire game and then panic bussed each other when called out"

I mean maybe they just were cocky and lacked any real team chemistry and presumed they would Teabag the town easily

[President Eden]

@chaq wtf is reverse amogus theory lol

[President Eden]

I just can't imagine a scumteam of ghug, damo, Chaqa, TFB being like "guys what if we just did nothing the entire game and then panic bussed each other when called out"

I mean maybe they just were cocky and lacked any real team chemistry and presumed they would Teabag the town easily

One would hope that being put directly on notice n1 that town was coming for two of them would be enough to shake them out of that…

Idk man I can’t say that didn’t happen but I’m just very leery of assuming it’s actually that easy lol

[brainbomb]

I don't know any of you all, but I'm trying to make enemies as fast as possible. That's my strategy

talk to us about this strategy. you said youve played one other mafia game and played as town. can you describe that experience?