MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[Bonatogether]

• BK3K
o me
• Bonatogether
o Fought a little with him
o Seems to be trying to figure shit out – asking me a lot of probing questions
• Bozotheclown
o silent
• brainbomb
o angry at participation
• BunnyGo
o Nuff said
• Chaqa
o Likes the Eagles
o Likes IASIP
• damo666
• Fluminator
• Ghug
• Jamiet99uk
• KoalaAttack
o Seems to jump to reaching conclusions
• lfischl
• President Eden
o Might be biased since Bunny shared his advice at work with us
o Trust him, but not strongly
• rdrivera2005
• swordsman3003
o silent
• TheFlyingBoat

started to take notes, I'll try to pay attention better to who is like what

bishkek what happened to your notes

[Bonatogether]

i want to see them again

[Princess Neon]

I can't do it. I can't read all of this.

So this should be fun lol

[Bonatogether]

the vote count analysis for d1: part dos

we left off in this gripping story with boat man becoming a wagon. exciting!

The time is T-7:26. EoD draws near, and the wagons were 4 - Boat Man, 3 - Chaqa, 2 - Bona, 1 - eden, swords, bongo. At EoD, wagons were 9 - bongus, 4 - bona, 2 - boat man.

from the 4 on boat man: 2 stayed, 1 to bongo, 1 to bona
from the 3 on checkers: 2 to bongo, 1 to bona
from the 2 on bona: 1 stayed, 1 to bongo
from the 1 on eden: to bongo
from the 1 on swords: to boat man
from the 1 on bongo: stayed

i initially had a theory that there were observable voting blocs from this early but that doesn't seem to be the case. there was massive movement and very little consistency with people that were voting together at this point. we'll check back in later to see if this changes

bongo becomes a major wagon at T-6:17 off a damo vote but will quickly lose it as he switches off to vote lfischl.

the situation remains broadly static for several hours, with long periods of time without any votes.

i become the next major wagon at T-2:54, with votes from chaqa, ghug, and swords. all 3 will be voting me with a minute left at EoD.

chaqa's wagon peaks at 5 votes at T-0:47. the rationale for voting him is unexplained (beancomb), no in-game reason at all (bongo), pro-bona reasons (lfischl), and the scumclaim (eden, koala). this is not a wagon with staying power, as a majority of the wagon does not have a definite reason for why chaqa needs to die. it's a wagon propelled by the fact that he's not exactly bleeding town and it's easy to scumread a man who claimed it, but that motor will quickly peter out.

my wagon peaks at 6 votes at T-0:22. bongo thought i was obvscum, chaqa was voting me because i hadn't started tunnelling (unsure how serious this was), 'to see what happens' from damo, i'm putting this in to tell if anyone actually is reading these say hi if you are, ghug because eden left and he thought i was scummy, eden because i posted sunglasses at chaqa calling me scum, and swordsy because i was the top poster. with the understanding that i'm the one reading the people voting for me, this feels like a similarly unserious wagon. swordsy, eden, ghug don't have like actual reasons for votes that they elaborate on in the thread, and the fact that eden and ghug keep ping-ponging on and off my wagon gives it artificial motion that gives other scum cover to move on, i feel like. i'd say that makes damo look significantly worse. thanks damo!

at t-0:22 minutes, wagons are 6 bona, 3 boat man, 2 damo, 2 chaqa, 1 peden, 1 lfischl

of the six on me, 4 end on me, 2 ends on bungus
of the three on boat man, 1 moves to bungus and the other 2 stay
of the two on damo, all end on bungus
of the two on eden and lfischl, both move to bungus

so basically ALL movement is towards bongo in the last 20 minutes. i pick up votes in the last few minutes, but all of those are votes that just left me. however, basically the entire game consolidates on esteemed personage bunnygo. the question is, where are the scum in all of this? obviously, they are probably mostly riding the bongo wave, because following the herd is a towntell. therefore, i give town points to people who ended on me (and were active - so eden and chaqa. sorry swordeon!).

bungus' wagon is a classic speed wagon in that momentum was slowly building in thread for several hours without any votes, as i recall, then was suddenly precipitated by ghug. the damo wagon immediately evaporates. because ghug starts this rapid movement off of damo onto another, widely scumread, town player, i think this again makes damo look significantly worse. it also says something to me that NO ONE votes against me (and stays - thank you ghug!).

because this day looks like damo protection i want to say that later votes look better, as a general rule, and that votes that go damo->bongo look worse. this puts people like lfischl and koalers, in the more towny range, and boat man look a little worse.

let's imagine some scenarios and ask some questions

if i was scum being protected, why not pump up damo's wagon?
if damo is town, then scum!bona only makes sense if scum are already on damo's wagon - out of flum/ghug/tfb, only tfb is unknown. suggests if damo is town and i am scum, boat man is scum, but that's like complicated. i don't believe boat man is scum, so don't believe this scenario is what happened. incidentally koalers was at this point in time at eod, so good on him
if damo is scum, then it doesn't make sense. godfather/goon distinction doesn't matter because the cop is dead, so necessarily another wagon has to be created. bongo go weeee

why was ghug skitzing out between me and bongo?
i have no idea, but to me this indicates that he was trying to make confusion and let his scummates hide wherever they wanted (on bunnygo, as it turns out).

why was the boat man wagon dead?
tl;dr he probably wasn't scum, but also 2/3rds of his wagon was afk people who voted for him 12 hours or more before.

why was it bunnygo?
this is hard to answer but there was a long slow burn of people like beancomb, peden, rdr, and such shading him, with damo ping-ponging off of him over the course of the day, and at least for me, i was suspecting him somewhat by eod, so when the wagon formed and it wasn't me, it was just the move. i believe that applies to other people to some degree as well. unlucky for bongo

tl;dr
damo looks terrible
koala's damo/tfb logic is probably right
koalers/lfischl look a little better, tfb a little worse but i still townread him
not much to be drawn out from this day until later, imo, because there was just such a movement towards bongo at eod and not towards anyone else.

[Bonatogether]

now to read d2

starting on page 114

[Bonatogether]

After a night of sleep I think I sorted Koala's reaction. It's not the he really got offended by BK, but he is the kind of people who is very strict with things: "I said I will vote anyone cussing me so I will even if it was a joke".

Also, I don't like the way Eden reacted to this. It's like he was sensing to see if there is enough support to a Koala wagon without committing to it.

agree, unsure wrt eden point. don't feel it

[Bonatogether]

Count of who ended on Bunny

Bra Boz Bon Fish 3
Bra Boz Fish PE 2
Bra Boz Fish Swo 2
Bra Boz PE Swo 1
Bra Bon Fish TFB 4
Bra Fish PE Swo 2
Bra Fish PE TFB 3
Bra Fish Swo TFB 3
Bra PE Swo TFB 2
Boz Bon Fish TFB 3
Boz Fish PE Swo 1
Fish PE Swo TFB 2

Eliminating the improbable counts of only 1 and all 4 we are left with 9 teams with a revised frequency count:

Brain 7
Bozo 4
Bona 2
Fish 7
PE 5
Swo 5
TFB 5

Adding TFB I now think we should vote from among {Brain, Fish, PE, Sword, TFB}

I'm finding Bona and Bozo less likely

##vote lfischl

this logic is so coked up it's incoherent

you can jimmy this to give any result you want

[Bonatogether]

Count of who ended on Bunny

Bra Boz Bon Fish 3
Bra Boz Fish PE 2
Bra Boz Fish Swo 2
Bra Boz PE Swo 1
Bra Bon Fish TFB 4
Bra Fish PE Swo 2
Bra Fish PE TFB 3
Bra Fish Swo TFB 3
Bra PE Swo TFB 2
Boz Bon Fish TFB 3
Boz Fish PE Swo 1
Fish PE Swo TFB 2

Eliminating the improbable counts of only 1 and all 4 we are left with 9 teams with a revised frequency count:

Brain 7
Bozo 4
Bona 2
Fish 7
PE 5
Swo 5
TFB 5

Adding TFB I now think we should vote from among {Brain, Fish, PE, Sword, TFB}

I'm finding Bona and Bozo less likely

##vote lfischl

I would vote for PE or Sword if you would

@lfischl I will monitor, willing to vote any of my 5 suspects

narrator voice: he voted for ghug

[Princess Neon]

I've decided through a deep detailed process with much solving that

Damo is mafia

Flying Boat and Bona are town

And there's always one in BK3K, Best Genshin Character, Koala and Chaqa

I've decided it's Chaqa

Alright cool

[Bonatogether]

Unfortunately I've been roped into something that's likely to take up a big part of the remaining day. I think I'll be able to keep an eye on things and I think I'll be around for EOD, but not sure yet.

I don't think much of anything has changed about the game state. I won't vote rdr, bozo, brain, Bona and probably won't vote BK. damo is my top preference, then ghug, then after that it's a bit hazy. Based on how today has gone I'm pretty confident damo and ghug are mafia, and the mafia has struggled to figure out how to attack a day where the wagons have been locked on to multiple scum all day long. My initial case on damo remains undisputed, and he's now just flailing around right now trying to find anything that will work to get him and ghug out of today - which is why he landed on lfischl (who is basically just a lurker rand vote - and note how ghug picked lfischl too!) but immediately and shamelessly followed lfischl's hint that he might vote me.

like this post ngl, going to stay on you for a bit while I go re-look at some of the damo-ghug stuff. I also will be gone in about 90 minutes to after eod

narrator voice: he hasn't posted since

[brainbomb]

he went to jared

[Princess Neon]

Exactly one in Eden/Chaqa always

[Princess Neon]

Cool chill cool awesome

[KoalaAttack]

If I am still alive by end of day – and if Mafia doesn't kill me overnight – I will do another updated Suspects List! And then continue voting for BK3K regardless of that it says.

I just realized that waiting until tomorrow to post a Suspects List would be a mistake and a lost opportunity in case Mafia does kill me and you miss out on the opportunity to get the benefit of validating my authenticity through that.

So, here is my updated list:



Koala's Suspects List 3.0

(1) Chaqa – as I mentioned earlier, their representation of how I reacted to them cussing me out in a moment of anger last game vs how I reacted to an intentional provocation by BK3K this game is very Suspicious. Continues to make ever more off-handed jokes about being Mafia. My stance of "either they are Town asking for it, or Mafia so blatantly trolling us that not-voting for them would make us all super foolish" is solidifying more and more.

(2) Princess Neon – I have zero read on her as a player being the new sub other than a "Thank You for subbing"... But question to experienced folks – would it be logical for her to inherit my thoughts on Swordsman? Because if Swordsman was Town she inherited that, and if Swordsman was Mafia she did as well, right? Well, given that Swordsman continued to do absolutely & utterly nothing while the Town is tearing itself apart, it just seems awfully convenient. And my only point of reference is my last game, which was won by a Mafia team of Power-Lurkers... So, sorry Princess Neon but you are here until new data tells me otherwise.

(3) President Eden – I know they were on my Townie List 2.0, but are now here mainly due to very suspicious BK3K vs Koala involvement similar to Chaqa. Why would a Townie want to ride that wave together with now-proven-Mobster ghug? And here is the thing – one could ask "why did BK3K did that?" just as easily as "why did Koala reacted that way?" ... Even Bona, to Bona's credid, asked precisely that. And AFAICT, I wasn't prominent on President Eden's Suspect list beforehand – and neither was BK3K to be fair. But of course, one of us is a lot more active [badly] trying to hunt Mafias than the other (no offense BK3K)... Yeah, just feels off.

(4) Bona – I still Suspect them for all the earlier over-the-top buddying up, but there seems to be a wider consensus that they are Townie, especially revolving around their actions on Day 1. Honestly, I don't really understand the rationale, and also I thought you folks said we shouldn't give too much weight to Day 1 ... but I am amendable to listen to the majority. If Fluminator was alive they would probably accuse me of sheeping now :)


Koala's NAI List:

(5) Damo – and here I am going to be sheeping in the other direction. I was flip-flopping putting Damo on the suspect list, but they very much undermined ghug's attempt to pile on me for BK3K reaction. And AFAICT the case against Damo boils down to "usually Damo is good at Townie, this game Damo is bad as Townie" which is fair enough but maybe doesn't have quite as much weight in my inexperienced eyes.

(6) TFB – one think I really, really, feel confident about is a very strong unpairing between Damo & TFB. So mostly TFB is here to be next to Damo whom I now suspect more.

(7) BK3K – I said all I'll say re our episode. But the key question is the motivation of "why" they did that in their drunken state? Was it to try to line-up a miskill as a Mafia? Or was is a bored Townie just trying to stir something up? I think I do believe what BK3K said about not being that much into the game, it tracks with the level of contribution. So here we are.

(8) lfishl – I am still suspicious of lfishl for lurking given they just won the last game as a Lurker Mafia, and they seem to be playing exactly the same way again. But clearly lfishl did a lot more than Swordsman so if we are pressuring quiet folks they are 2nd in line and thus here.



Koala's [Temporarily] Cleared of Suspicion List:

(9) & (10) – rdrivera & Bozo – I really hate having the Soulless Koala Killer and the Evil Koala Murder Ordered on here. But going by their actions this game, they seem to both be acting logically and trying to eliminate suspects. Of course, they both did that during the last game too before their koalacide... But as much as it pains me, put them here now.

(11) – brainbomb – I still got no reason to suspect them. I still dislike their intentionally provocative posting style from especially early on, but still feel that they helped uncover more useful data for us.

[Bonatogether]

Damo
Ghug
BK
lfischl

I really think thats it actually. and I know I had damo and lfischl as town but something about this feels right.

fischy and bishkek don't feel scum to me

[Princess Neon]

If I am still alive by end of day – and if Mafia doesn't kill me overnight – I will do another updated Suspects List! And then continue voting for BK3K regardless of that it says.

I just realized that waiting until tomorrow to post a Suspects List would be a mistake and a lost opportunity in case Mafia does kill me and you miss out on the opportunity to get the benefit of validating my authenticity through that.

So, here is my updated list:



Koala's Suspects List 3.0

(1) Chaqa – as I mentioned earlier, their representation of how I reacted to them cussing me out in a moment of anger last game vs how I reacted to an intentional provocation by BK3K this game is very Suspicious. Continues to make ever more off-handed jokes about being Mafia. My stance of "either they are Town asking for it, or Mafia so blatantly trolling us that not-voting for them would make us all super foolish" is solidifying more and more.

(2) Princess Neon – I have zero read on her as a player being the new sub other than a "Thank You for subbing"... But question to experienced folks – would it be logical for her to inherit my thoughts on Swordsman? Because if Swordsman was Town she inherited that, and if Swordsman was Mafia she did as well, right? Well, given that Swordsman continued to do absolutely & utterly nothing while the Town is tearing itself apart, it just seems awfully convenient. And my only point of reference is my last game, which was won by a Mafia team of Power-Lurkers... So, sorry Princess Neon but you are here until new data tells me otherwise.

(3) President Eden – I know they were on my Townie List 2.0, but are now here mainly due to very suspicious BK3K vs Koala involvement similar to Chaqa. Why would a Townie want to ride that wave together with now-proven-Mobster ghug? And here is the thing – one could ask "why did BK3K did that?" just as easily as "why did Koala reacted that way?" ... Even Bona, to Bona's credid, asked precisely that. And AFAICT, I wasn't prominent on President Eden's Suspect list beforehand – and neither was BK3K to be fair. But of course, one of us is a lot more active [badly] trying to hunt Mafias than the other (no offense BK3K)... Yeah, just feels off.

(4) Bona – I still Suspect them for all the earlier over-the-top buddying up, but there seems to be a wider consensus that they are Townie, especially revolving around their actions on Day 1. Honestly, I don't really understand the rationale, and also I thought you folks said we shouldn't give too much weight to Day 1 ... but I am amendable to listen to the majority. If Fluminator was alive they would probably accuse me of sheeping now :)


Koala's NAI List:

(5) Damo – and here I am going to be sheeping in the other direction. I was flip-flopping putting Damo on the suspect list, but they very much undermined ghug's attempt to pile on me for BK3K reaction. And AFAICT the case against Damo boils down to "usually Damo is good at Townie, this game Damo is bad as Townie" which is fair enough but maybe doesn't have quite as much weight in my inexperienced eyes.

(6) TFB – one think I really, really, feel confident about is a very strong unpairing between Damo & TFB. So mostly TFB is here to be next to Damo whom I now suspect more.

(7) BK3K – I said all I'll say re our episode. But the key question is the motivation of "why" they did that in their drunken state? Was it to try to line-up a miskill as a Mafia? Or was is a bored Townie just trying to stir something up? I think I do believe what BK3K said about not being that much into the game, it tracks with the level of contribution. So here we are.

(8) lfishl – I am still suspicious of lfishl for lurking given they just won the last game as a Lurker Mafia, and they seem to be playing exactly the same way again. But clearly lfishl did a lot more than Swordsman so if we are pressuring quiet folks they are 2nd in line and thus here.



Koala's [Temporarily] Cleared of Suspicion List:

(9) & (10) – rdrivera & Bozo – I really hate having the Soulless Koala Killer and the Evil Koala Murder Ordered on here. But going by their actions this game, they seem to both be acting logically and trying to eliminate suspects. Of course, they both did that during the last game too before their koalacide... But as much as it pains me, put them here now.

(11) – brainbomb – I still got no reason to suspect them. I still dislike their intentionally provocative posting style from especially early on, but still feel that they helped uncover more useful data for us.

It's okay I forgive you

My slot did nothing and I know that cause they had a grand total of 4 posts in their ISO

Now I will explain

They were overwhelmed by the content and couldn't keep up

They've said that but I know this being I know my role.

I however... well I'm not gonna read 128 pages but I will be active until you unceremoniously murder me

[Princess Neon]

Chaqa and Eden aren't W/W

But one is a woof. I think it's Chaqa.



BK3K and Best Genshin Character aren't W/W

But one could be a woof. And likely is imo.


Damo also wolf because brain says so.

But honestly I think just kill Chaqa tomorrow

[Bonatogether]

Unfortunately I've been roped into something that's likely to take up a big part of the remaining day. I think I'll be able to keep an eye on things and I think I'll be around for EOD, but not sure yet.

I don't think much of anything has changed about the game state. I won't vote rdr, bozo, brain, Bona and probably won't vote BK. damo is my top preference, then ghug, then after that it's a bit hazy. Based on how today has gone I'm pretty confident damo and ghug are mafia, and the mafia has struggled to figure out how to attack a day where the wagons have been locked on to multiple scum all day long. My initial case on damo remains undisputed, and he's now just flailing around right now trying to find anything that will work to get him and ghug out of today - which is why he landed on lfischl (who is basically just a lurker rand vote - and note how ghug picked lfischl too!) but immediately and shamelessly followed lfischl's hint that he might vote me.

Scum Eden trying to get either a ghug or me mk. Looking like brain his pal .

[Bonatogether]

I think it is possible TFB, damo, and ghug are all mafia and there was a fair amount of bussing going on D1. It would explain some of the unusual D1 voting. Also, TFB's strong push on damo D1 seems like a good bus candidate to me.

how do you get boat man/damo scum axis

[Bonatogether]

I did a search on TFB and found this:

Lesson Plan: How to Criticize Counter Wagons as a Mafia Player in Mafia Game

thanks bozo this was really helpful