MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[TheFlyingBoat]

Luckily I saw your switch shortly after mine and damo's vote to tie in time to change my vote back with 2 seconds to spare.

Yea, I tried to announce intentions with enough time, but I saw brainbomb go back to ghug and my heart had been telling me to get ghug so that's what I did

Assuming damo is mafia, either one flipping scum today would likely result in the other being the DK D3, so the mafia could easily have cut their loses and bussed today. I find you and TFB advocating the ghug, damo, and 2 lurkers idea suspicious.

Dude how hard is your tunnel vision on me? Are you so convinced I can't be right that you are going to just death tunnel on me the entire game? If you think the game is ghug-damo-me-PE, why wouldn't ghug play like he always plays as scum and force a couple miskills and trust that we could see the game out through the end?

The way the day froze when town had wagons on ghug and damo suggests an inability for scum to maneuver and an unwillingness to hard bus. Ghug avoiding the damo wagon like he did and trying to get something on bona and lfischl strongly adds credence to this theory. The reason why ghug is playing the way he is is because he doesn't trust his team imo.

[rdrivera2005]

Assuming damo is mafia, either one flipping scum today would likely result in the other being the DK D3, so the mafia could easily have cut their loses and bussed today. I find you and TFB advocating the ghug, damo, and 2 lurkers idea suspicious.

You're right that the mafia could have cut losses now, sure. But:

- Do you not find damo highly suspicious?
- If you do, does the dynamic of the game not make perfect sense for it to be those two + a couple of inactives?

I'm not really worried about you thinking this theory is suspicious, but if you think it's wrong I'd like to talk through it and see what might make more sense

I am assuming damo is mafia, so the order of the DKs did not matter much if the mafia were giving up on ghug and damo, which means anyone voting for them could have been bussing.

Why are you assuming Damo is Mafia?

[President Eden]

Assuming damo is mafia, either one flipping scum today would likely result in the other being the DK D3, so the mafia could easily have cut their loses and bussed today. I find you and TFB advocating the ghug, damo, and 2 lurkers idea suspicious.

You're right that the mafia could have cut losses now, sure. But:

- Do you not find damo highly suspicious?
- If you do, does the dynamic of the game not make perfect sense for it to be those two + a couple of inactives?

I'm not really worried about you thinking this theory is suspicious, but if you think it's wrong I'd like to talk through it and see what might make more sense

I am assuming damo is mafia, so the order of the DKs did not matter much if the mafia were giving up on ghug and damo, which means anyone voting for them could have been bussing.

I see. Put it this way - it doesn't have to be me and TFB specifically, but let's say it's not two lurkers, maybe one lurker and one active poster. Surely you'd expect that active poster to be shilling hard for other wagons besides them, no? Either that or hard bussing I guess (admittedly I haven't thought this part through much yet)

[brainbomb]

The thing is I've now got such a wide townpool my scum POE is pretty narrow.

Who are on your townpool? Mine isn't that big: Bona, Koala, Bozo, Brain, maybe Ghug.

How the fuck is bozo in your towncore?

talking point 3.0

[TheFlyingBoat]

VCA and more

BK3 - voting all over the place TI, Vote to put Bunny 5-3 NAI, vibes town: TOWNLEAN

Bona - the Bunny vote tying with himself is obviously NAI, didn't care for the spam, seems to be popularly read as town: NULL+

Bozo - voted TFB only: NULL as ever

brain - vote for bunny introduced Bunny to the frame, weakening townvibes: NULL+

Chaqa - avoided voting Bunny NAI, his doubting my sincerity in believing him to be town is from a town pov only serves to increase my assumption he is: TOWN

damo : TOWN

Flum: TOWN

ghug: the late Bunny vote seems entirely inappropriate as scum so gonna go out on a limb and say: TOWN

Koala: his Bunny vote might be a scum ensure the kill vote but his overall demeanour is very town so: TOWNLEAN

lfischl: the ate Bunny vote seems unnecessary (like ghug's) but it is fish so : NULL

PE: Not a lot to glean from votes (yet): NULL

rdr: Only voted TFB, seems very townrdr to me: STRONG TOWNLEAN

sword: virtual no info to go on: NULL

TFB: vote to put Bunny 6-4 up with 2 minutes to go is NAI, tunnel on me ludicrous but for some reason seems to be gaining traction: NULL

Current guess*: fish PE sword TFB

Other possibilities: Bozo brain and just maybe Bona

Amusingly this contains no Bs so maybe 3 plus one of the Others.

rereading this and I just have to say, what the fuck is this?

The VCA is basically all NAI or Null besides ghug, who you think is town because there is no reason to switch that late as scum and Koala whose vote seemed scummy to you, but is otherwise townie to you? Why even call it VCA and more when it is really just a sparse readlist?

As for ghug, I think your analysis is off as there is reason for scum!ghug to switch. If he wants to alter scum allocations on any wagon then he has very good reason to change. Not saying he is scum, but just saying that you shouldn't town read the vote.

bringing this back

[rdrivera2005]

You're right that the mafia could have cut losses now, sure. But:

- Do you not find damo highly suspicious?
- If you do, does the dynamic of the game not make perfect sense for it to be those two + a couple of inactives?

I'm not really worried about you thinking this theory is suspicious, but if you think it's wrong I'd like to talk through it and see what might make more sense

I am assuming damo is mafia, so the order of the DKs did not matter much if the mafia were giving up on ghug and damo, which means anyone voting for them could have been bussing.

I see. Put it this way - it doesn't have to be me and TFB specifically, but let's say it's not two lurkers, maybe one lurker and one active poster. Surely you'd expect that active poster to be shilling hard for other wagons besides them, no? Either that or hard bussing I guess (admittedly I haven't thought this part through much yet)

If Damo is scum the other two probably bussed one of them or just stayed away.

[Chaqa]

Bona might make sense as scum too given D1.

[bozotheclown]

ghug's D1 voting indicates he wanted BunnyGo or Bonatogether to be the DK over damo or TFB, which implicates TFB, which is why I previously said ghug, damo, and TFB all being mafia makes sense.

[brainbomb]

Scummy:
Bona
damo - Doing all the right damo things but more performatively than usual (e.g. saying he has a list of teams rather than listing them)

Nully:
sword
fish
Bozo
Eden

Nully and we should be extra hesitant not to townread for being new and competent:
bishkek - Jumping on the chance to eliminate the one person who knows him seems specifically like something crafty new mafia would do.
Koala

Towny:
Chaqa
Brain
Boat
rd - don't remember ever townreading him this strongly so he's probably scum
Flum
ghug

Reposting for visibility talking point 1.0

the RD read is strange. oversold even. and then hedged as well.

Revisit talking point 3.0 for more elaboration

[Chaqa]

Ghug + 3 of:
swordsman3003
KoalaAttack
Bonatogether
damo666
BK3K
TheFlyingBoat

Is where I'm at. Those are ranked in more or less the order I suspect them (most to least).

[brainbomb]

So, even with a lot of people telling it's a stupid idea to shoot D1 some stupid thug decided he is a town hero and shot our cop. Brilliant. And we can't even kill him because he is confirmed town.

I think I will take the night off and vote tomorrow on whoever defend him.

I encourage everyone to follow rdr's lead and take a break if you're feeling the urge to come in pissed off. This is a gut punch, but town has come back from worse things before.

talking point 2.0

promotes rdr town status as if rdr is town leader and should be trusted

[rdrivera2005]

VCA and more

BK3 - voting all over the place TI, Vote to put Bunny 5-3 NAI, vibes town: TOWNLEAN

Bona - the Bunny vote tying with himself is obviously NAI, didn't care for the spam, seems to be popularly read as town: NULL+

Bozo - voted TFB only: NULL as ever

brain - vote for bunny introduced Bunny to the frame, weakening townvibes: NULL+

Chaqa - avoided voting Bunny NAI, his doubting my sincerity in believing him to be town is from a town pov only serves to increase my assumption he is: TOWN

damo : TOWN

Flum: TOWN

ghug: the late Bunny vote seems entirely inappropriate as scum so gonna go out on a limb and say: TOWN

Koala: his Bunny vote might be a scum ensure the kill vote but his overall demeanour is very town so: TOWNLEAN

lfischl: the ate Bunny vote seems unnecessary (like ghug's) but it is fish so : NULL

PE: Not a lot to glean from votes (yet): NULL

rdr: Only voted TFB, seems very townrdr to me: STRONG TOWNLEAN

sword: virtual no info to go on: NULL

TFB: vote to put Bunny 6-4 up with 2 minutes to go is NAI, tunnel on me ludicrous but for some reason seems to be gaining traction: NULL

Current guess*: fish PE sword TFB

Other possibilities: Bozo brain and just maybe Bona

Amusingly this contains no Bs so maybe 3 plus one of the Others.

rereading this and I just have to say, what the fuck is this?

The VCA is basically all NAI or Null besides ghug, who you think is town because there is no reason to switch that late as scum and Koala whose vote seemed scummy to you, but is otherwise townie to you? Why even call it VCA and more when it is really just a sparse readlist?

As for ghug, I think your analysis is off as there is reason for scum!ghug to switch. If he wants to alter scum allocations on any wagon then he has very good reason to change. Not saying he is scum, but just saying that you shouldn't town read the vote.

bringing this back

A good analysis but why you didn't consider voting Ghug?

[brainbomb]

Who are on your townpool? Mine isn't that big: Bona, Koala, Bozo, Brain, maybe Ghug.

How the fuck is bozo in your towncore?

talking point 3.0

this seems like something ghug does alot as scum. he chastises a scum buddy who puts a low poster towny as town and makes it look like a normal ghug thing to do. this elevates me now that rivera is scum. and ghug sees rivera as the deep play for the maf team

[rdrivera2005]

Bona might make sense as scum too given D1.

Care to explain why as Ghug seems to want Bona dead.

[brainbomb]

rivera is scum. and the mafia ringleader

[bozotheclown]

You're right that the mafia could have cut losses now, sure. But:

- Do you not find damo highly suspicious?
- If you do, does the dynamic of the game not make perfect sense for it to be those two + a couple of inactives?

I'm not really worried about you thinking this theory is suspicious, but if you think it's wrong I'd like to talk through it and see what might make more sense

I am assuming damo is mafia, so the order of the DKs did not matter much if the mafia were giving up on ghug and damo, which means anyone voting for them could have been bussing.

Why are you assuming Damo is Mafia?

Kind of surprised damo hasn't voted ghug for self-preservation yet, given how early he was to vote to preserve his townreads on D1.

Really solidifying this is SvS(vT... shame on y'all) for me

Not voting a townread

##vote ghug

damo tied the vote 13 seconds before EOD, which I am assuming was intentional.

[TheFlyingBoat]

rereading this and I just have to say, what the fuck is this?

The VCA is basically all NAI or Null besides ghug, who you think is town because there is no reason to switch that late as scum and Koala whose vote seemed scummy to you, but is otherwise townie to you? Why even call it VCA and more when it is really just a sparse readlist?

As for ghug, I think your analysis is off as there is reason for scum!ghug to switch. If he wants to alter scum allocations on any wagon then he has very good reason to change. Not saying he is scum, but just saying that you shouldn't town read the vote.

bringing this back

A good analysis but why you didn't consider voting Ghug?

Because I was confident damo was scum as an individual. Ghug to me only made sense in certain configurations.

[rdrivera2005]

How the fuck is bozo in your towncore?

talking point 3.0

this seems like something ghug does alot as scum. he chastises a scum buddy who puts a low poster towny as town and makes it look like a normal ghug thing to do. this elevates me now that rivera is scum. and ghug sees rivera as the deep play for the maf team

I won't be a deep play for mafia team for some time after last game, but I see your point. I think Ghug was tryng to buddy me but it obviously didn't work.

[brainbomb]

Okay. im gonna try a thing where I dont get unreasonable with my theories.

so lets say for the moment he did just put you as top town to buddy you and stay off your radar

what does that say about his reaction to you putting bozo in towncore?

[brainbomb]

was he that annoyed at you putting bozo there

or was he faking being annoyed at you putting bozo there because bozo is scum with ghug