MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[KoalaAttack]

Whoops the ghug read sentence was meant to be added to 2. not to 1. obviously

[brainbomb]

In a hypothetical world I will pretend that I am lead wagon here being grilled and required to give a read on lfischl.

What I expect from lfischl:
I know lfischl pretty well. He has been a mod on sock drawer. hes played in mafia games on my server and hes a young man. He is good at trivia and won our recent sports trivia game by a landslide . lfschl participates when he can.

what I know about how he plays as scum
Active behind the scenes. He isnt afraid to talk in a game thread as mafia. He has been vocal before as scum and also has lurked before as scum. His play so far indicates primarily that he doesnt want to get subbed out which is not alignment indicative insofar as he doesnt want to get penalized (is my interpretation). I understand he has been scum recently and lurked in doing so. As a result there is a heightened sense of necessity to deal with him and not allow him to win a game as a wolf. That being said what few things he has said this game have not been all that bad. So I dont see his play as wolfy really.

What I assume
lfischl is town. and not because of some one liner he made and not because its obvious. its very far from obvious but I am just assuming that hes towny here and probably isnt going to ever play as much as people want him too

[KoalaAttack]

3. I think statistically "primarily" is a tough sell in there – but I think at least 1-2 of those 4 you listed there to be doing exactly that highly likely

Another question for the group – let's assume for a second my response was accurate, and 1-2 of those 4 quieter folks are indeed latent Mafia.

How can we hunt them? I never got a good answer on how many miskills we have left, but I assume it's like a couple more by my math. Mafia seems to have gotten very lucky with everything Fluminator related (shot cop, identified as vigilante, not saved by doc ultimately) so that makes it worse, right?

So, if you have a few quiet low posters (for whatever reasons), and 1 or 2 Mafia hiding in them, how can you get them out? I struggled with this the last game too where there was a faceless pile of 3-4 quieter folks (a couple of whom turned out to be Mafia indeed)

[brainbomb]

13 alive
4 mafia

if we miskill
and mafia kills and the doc doesnt save anyone

thats 11 alive
4 mafia

7/4

If by the fourth day of the game town miskills yet again and mafia kills the doc or gets a kill off and the doc fails save

the game by day 5 will be a 5/4 Kilo scenario.

So in answer to your question, ignoring the possiblity the doc saves someone we have two days left and two eliminations before we then must correctly guess mafia or we lose.


We usually study worst case scenario but rarely does a game actually go so badly that scum sweeps the game. there are simply too many competent players for that to happen.

[brainbomb]

actually, I think based on the math it would be day 4 kilo based on this then. since today its 9 v 4

day 3 would be 7 v 4

day 4 would be 5 v 4

[brainbomb]

but yes before we are in do or die, it is 2 miskills remaining

[KoalaAttack]

Thanks for that. Just to confirm – the second we are at 7 total and 4 Mafia we lost, right? They just outvote the Townies.

I see, so 13/4 --> miskill --> 11/4 --> miskill --> 9/4 --> miskill --> 7/5 so we lost... So 2 miskills indeed, barring a successful Doc save ... correct?

[Chaqa]

NOTE FOR THE CLASS

According to my analysis at least one of brain and fish are scum.

##Vote damo again

[Chaqa]

I will likely miss EoD tomorrow. I have D&D from 12 to 5 on Saturdays.

[rdrivera2005]

Thanks for that. Just to confirm – the second we are at 7 total and 4 Mafia we lost, right? They just outvote the Townies.

I see, so 13/4 --> miskill --> 11/4 --> miskill --> 9/4 --> miskill --> 7/5 so we lost... So 2 miskills indeed, barring a successful Doc save ... correct?

Yes, we have two chances to misskill before facing a last shot. Doc save won't chage this, unless he saves twice. And honestly if we get to 9/4 is basically auto loss for town, so we need to catch at least one scum today and tomorrow.

By the way, you including me at the same bucket as lfishcl and swordsman is weird. Bozo included me and BK on that list but he is posting way less then both. And you are just parroting him.

[rdrivera2005]

NOTE FOR THE CLASS

According to my analysis at least one of brain and fish are scum.

##Vote damo again

Why?

[brainbomb]

what elimination do you want to prioritize today rivera? do we share common ground on ghug, swords, TFB, BK? any of those ideas you would entertain and maybe we can get some discussion going?

[KoalaAttack]

By the way, you including me at the same bucket as lfishcl and swordsman is weird. Bozo included me and BK on that list but he is posting way less then both. And you are just parroting him.

To me, your style of play and level of contribution seems utterly indistinguishable from the last game, which is my only other (admittedly limited) data point. And we have already established beyond any doubt that you were the evil mastermind who ordered the koala murder in the last game.

Actually, my personal version of the 5 faceless indistinguishable low-posters include Bozo as well (as it did last game too)

Alphabetically:
- BK3K
- bozo
- lfishl
- rdrivera
- swordsman

I am still hoping someone answers my real question of how to extract 1-2 Mafia if they hide among this crowd. Can we like, threaten to auto-vote whichever of the quiet folks posts the least tomorrow and force them to say things?

[brainbomb]

By the way, you including me at the same bucket as lfishcl and swordsman is weird. Bozo included me and BK on that list but he is posting way less then both. And you are just parroting him.

To me, your style of play and level of contribution seems utterly indistinguishable from the last game, which is my only other (admittedly limited) data point. And we have already established beyond any doubt that you were the evil mastermind who ordered the koala murder in the last game.

Actually, my personal version of the 5 faceless indistinguishable low-posters include Bozo as well (as it did last game too)

Alphabetically:
- BK3K
- bozo
- lfishl
- rdrivera
- swordsman

I am still hoping someone answers my real question of how to extract 1-2 Mafia if they hide among this crowd. Can we like, threaten to auto-vote whichever of the quiet folks posts the least tomorrow and force them to say things?

I plan on advocating for the new two kills to exclusively come only from that pool. so feel free to join me on swords and we can get that plan started.

[rdrivera2005]

what elimination do you want to prioritize today rivera? do we share common ground on ghug, swords, TFB, BK? any of those ideas you would entertain and maybe we can get some discussion going?

I am still pissed we don't have a shot to flip sword or fisch. This said we probably should go for a regular voting day and not a policy kill today. So, swords isn't priority I think.

I am willing to go for Ghug for sure. TFB was in my scum pile yesterday but I liked some of his posts at night and today and he is not my top choice. BK is a big question mark. I was townreading him D1, but his vote on Buny and his posts today doesn't seem on the same vibe.

I am also willing to go for Eden.

And Damo is playing a game of his own, which I can't categorize as either town or scum. Same applies for Chaqa. So, at this point only you, Koala and Bona keep on my towncore.

And when I checked the bot to see who was missing, it was Bozo, who tells a lot about how he isn't making an impression.

[rdrivera2005]

By the way, you including me at the same bucket as lfishcl and swordsman is weird. Bozo included me and BK on that list but he is posting way less then both. And you are just parroting him.

To me, your style of play and level of contribution seems utterly indistinguishable from the last game, which is my only other (admittedly limited) data point. And we have already established beyond any doubt that you were the evil mastermind who ordered the koala murder in the last game.

Actually, my personal version of the 5 faceless indistinguishable low-posters include Bozo as well (as it did last game too)

Alphabetically:
- BK3K
- bozo
- lfishl
- rdrivera
- swordsman

I am still hoping someone answers my real question of how to extract 1-2 Mafia if they hide among this crowd. Can we like, threaten to auto-vote whichever of the quiet folks posts the least tomorrow and force them to say things?

You can but it won't work.

[rdrivera2005]

##vote Ghug, let's see if people are really willing to vote him.

[brainbomb]

##vote ghug

[ghug]

can you read the stat board

Can you?

explain to me how you're right

17.23>17.17

[KoalaAttack]

I plan on advocating for the new two kills to exclusively come only from that pool. so feel free to join me on swords and we can get that plan started.

I like this plan, but I still have very strong Bono Suspicion.

Question to everyone – at this juncture of the game with 2 misskills remaining, is it better to follow my one strong Suspicion and keep making my best case for it or start the low-contributor witch hunt ?

You can but it won't work.

Well, poop. You do see that this 6-word-long non-constructive statement does not do you any favors to move you out of the pile, right? Are there better alternatives you can share?