MAFIA 78: Random Facts [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[brainbomb]

##vote bunnygo

I thought you didn't like wagoning someone new EoD.

This isnt new for me. and I feel the vibe you are putting down on this

[KoalaAttack]

Scum (alpha): viewtopic.php?p=320131#p320131

Scum (alpha): viewtopic.php?p=273446#p273446

Town (ordered, though in response to a bozo survey): http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/ ... 47#p248247

I mean I did a quick perusal of games going back to M69 and the only times you ever seem to give full reads lists D1 are when you're scum (both times alphabetized) or in response to a survey (in which case you gave it ordered).

OK, so I was re-reading TFB per Bozo's prompt to see if I should reconsider. And I found this post.

As a Data Scientist, this analysis is incorrect because it does not mean the threshold of what we call statistical significance, not even close.

But on the Random Fact Logic level, this is a very compelling case. Hmm. I now have more suspicion of TFB and at the same time more suspicion of Damo. And maybe slightly less suspicion of Bozo? Hmm.

I mean yes, if you were to run a chi-squared test it would probably fail, but in mafia we will rarely get the sample sizes to get nice pretty p-values <0.05. It is something concrete-ish which is more than any other wagon has.

OK wait a second, so folks – last game I learned this concept of "unpairing". That's when one person is Mafia the other is very unlikely to also be, right?

And here we have TFB voting on Damo and making a super strong case against Damo.

So, if we flip Damo either (A) Damo is Mafia, which would be useful to additionally clear TFB's name. Or (B) Damo is Town which gives us a much weaker signal but still that of additional suspicion on TFB.

So, this is a flip with more info? I like voting for flips with bonus info.

##vote Damo

[President Eden]

what a bullshit reason to suddenly move

vote me

no balls

I literally am you petulant child

[Fluminator]

OK, so I was re-reading TFB per Bozo's prompt to see if I should reconsider. And I found this post.

As a Data Scientist, this analysis is incorrect because it does not mean the threshold of what we call statistical significance, not even close.

But on the Random Fact Logic level, this is a very compelling case. Hmm. I now have more suspicion of TFB and at the same time more suspicion of Damo. And maybe slightly less suspicion of Bozo? Hmm.

I mean yes, if you were to run a chi-squared test it would probably fail, but in mafia we will rarely get the sample sizes to get nice pretty p-values <0.05. It is something concrete-ish which is more than any other wagon has.

OK wait a second, so folks – last game I learned this concept of "unpairing". That's when one person is Mafia the other is very unlikely to also be, right?

And here we have TFB voting on Damo and making a super strong case against Damo.

So, if we flip Damo either (A) Damo is Mafia, which would be useful to additionally clear TFB's name. Or (B) Damo is Town which gives us a much weaker signal but still that of additional suspicion on TFB.

So, this is a flip with more info? I like voting for flips with bonus info.

##vote Damo

Why is this context any different from someone else pushing someone

[Bonatogether]

OK, so I was re-reading TFB per Bozo's prompt to see if I should reconsider. And I found this post.

As a Data Scientist, this analysis is incorrect because it does not mean the threshold of what we call statistical significance, not even close.

But on the Random Fact Logic level, this is a very compelling case. Hmm. I now have more suspicion of TFB and at the same time more suspicion of Damo. And maybe slightly less suspicion of Bozo? Hmm.

I mean yes, if you were to run a chi-squared test it would probably fail, but in mafia we will rarely get the sample sizes to get nice pretty p-values <0.05. It is something concrete-ish which is more than any other wagon has.

OK wait a second, so folks – last game I learned this concept of "unpairing". That's when one person is Mafia the other is very unlikely to also be, right?

And here we have TFB voting on Damo and making a super strong case against Damo.

So, if we flip Damo either (A) Damo is Mafia, which would be useful to additionally clear TFB's name. Or (B) Damo is Town which gives us a much weaker signal but still that of additional suspicion on TFB.

So, this is a flip with more info? I like voting for flips with bonus info.

##vote Damo

i don't understand your reasoning

this is a tenuous connection at best

being wrong is not a scumtell

[ghug]

I'm pretty happy with these wagons.

[President Eden]

awk that it’s now tied

[Chaqa]

There is a player on Mafiauniverse who wrote an article about the idea that an entire day of voting and discussion being erased in the final half an hour for a jerk off fest onto whoever randomly seems like a good idea and the conclusion of the article was that it was the highest form of idiocy in mafia to behave this way

I actually agree with you on this.

[Bonatogether]

vote me

no balls

I literally am you petulant child

[brainbomb]

BunnyGo (4)
ghug brainbomb Fluminator Bonatogether


this is by far the cleanest most coherent wagon available.

greater than 75% town here at minimum

[Chaqa]

Vote me out your cowards

[brainbomb]

I'm pretty happy with these wagons.

I prefer bunny dying over bona

[Fluminator]

BunnyGo (4)
ghug brainbomb Fluminator Bonatogether


this is by far the cleanest most coherent wagon available.

greater than 75% town here at minimum

yeah, but town also doesn't know anything

[Fluminator]

Vote me out your cowards

stfu

[Bonatogether]

my wagon is cringe
bongo's wagon is goated
damo's wagon is decent but not as good as bungu's

boat man shouldn't be a wagon


rip chaqa wagon? idk

[ghug]

I'm pretty happy with these wagons.

I prefer bunny dying over bona

I'm interested to see who breaks the tie.

[damo666]

##vote Bunny

No ties

[BK3K]

I think bunny more sus than bona, but I don't want to be alone

[TheFlyingBoat]

Scum (alpha): viewtopic.php?p=320131#p320131

Scum (alpha): viewtopic.php?p=273446#p273446

Town (ordered, though in response to a bozo survey): http://webdiplomacy.net/contrib/phpBB3/ ... 47#p248247

I mean I did a quick perusal of games going back to M69 and the only times you ever seem to give full reads lists D1 are when you're scum (both times alphabetized) or in response to a survey (in which case you gave it ordered).

OK, so I was re-reading TFB per Bozo's prompt to see if I should reconsider. And I found this post.

As a Data Scientist, this analysis is incorrect because it does not mean the threshold of what we call statistical significance, not even close.

But on the Random Fact Logic level, this is a very compelling case. Hmm. I now have more suspicion of TFB and at the same time more suspicion of Damo. And maybe slightly less suspicion of Bozo? Hmm.

TFB, how many scum games has Damo had where he doesn't give a list?

On D1? Just checked I found 1, though he did give the list N1 instead.

[Bonatogether]

8 players - bongo/bona
7 players - off wagon