MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

If you have a game you want to play on the forum, you can do so here.
Forum rules
This is an area for forum games. Please note that to support mafia games players cannot edit their own posts in this forum. Off Topic threads will be relocated or deleted. Issues taking place in forum games should be dealt with by respective game GMs and escalated to the moderators only if absolutely necessary.
Message
Author

Balki Bartokomous
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 2933
Joined: Mon Jan 22, 2018 5:15 am
Location: Island of Mypos
Karma: 541
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2642 Post by Balki Bartokomous » Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:49 am

Hey. Just finished coaching basketball. I don’t really have energy for this tonight. And tomorrow I have a pretty jam packed day. This phase it’s just going to be pretty tough to me to contribute much.
1

bozotheclown
Posts: 12592
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:13 am
Karma: 4013
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2643 Post by bozotheclown » Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:41 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:07 am
bozotheclown wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:15 am
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:36 pm

Right.

2-1 is much better than 4-2. And we'd have a bunch more information to review.
The downside is the risk of a tough guy, but I think we have more to gain than lose.

##VOTE No-Kill
Could you please elaborate as if I REALLY don't get it? Why do you think no-kill is correct tonight if we KNEW there was no tough guy, but wrong if we KNEW there was?
We are now at 4-2 with 1 clear. 3-2 with no clear is worse, which is what we would expect if we knew there was a tough guy. 3-2 with 1 clear is better, which would be the likely outcome if we knew there was not a tough guy. However, there are some other possible outcomes, so I don't think this is an obvious case for a no-kill, but I think it is marginally beneficial to town, partially because I think there are reasons to believe the mafia do not have a tough guy.
1

bozotheclown
Posts: 12592
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:13 am
Karma: 4013
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2644 Post by bozotheclown » Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:12 am

BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:12 am
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:32 am
bozotheclown wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:27 am


I did not follow this, specifically "That way, if they are a Town player voting for a scum player, the game ends, as both scum players can hammer." Do you mean if a town player is voting for another town player, both scum can hammer?
Yes, that is what I meant. Thank you. Basically, if a town player votes wrong, the game ends (just like would happen at a final vote under normal circumstances). But because of that, any time a player votes and the game does not end, we learn something.
This sounds to me like the following mistake:

Say we're all choosing lots from a hat. One lot is a winner, the others are losers. Do you want to go 1st, 2nd, last? Which gives you the best odds of winning?!

The first player has the worst odds (1/4 say), and everyone else gets improved odds when they fail! So you clearly don't want to go first!

Now repeat...the next "first" player now has the worst odds (1/3) so you clearly don't want to go second!

etc. etc.

But it's wrong. Because just because you MIGHT learn something based on the first person's vote, you might just learn you lose before you vote or have a chance to judge reactions.

I don't like this plan. I don't like it as a rule (but would be willing to do it if it WERE THE RULES). I especially don't like it sprung on us late.

I won't adhere to it, and I won't participate.
At 2-1, I don't think this voting mechanism is better as a replacement to a normal day, but once everyone has decided on their final vote, if both town are correct, which is the only way town wins, they would still win with this voting. However, I think it only helps if the mafia is forced to hammer first and does not know who the town plan to vote for. The case where it would help is if the mafia hammered town 1, but town 1 was going to vote for town 2. If town 2 does not hammer town 1, town 1 knows he was wrong.

bozotheclown
Posts: 12592
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 8:13 am
Karma: 4013
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2645 Post by bozotheclown » Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:20 am

Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:25 am
bozotheclown wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:07 am
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 12:32 am

Yes, that is what I meant. Thank you. Basically, if a town player votes wrong, the game ends (just like would happen at a final vote under normal circumstances). But because of that, any time a player votes and the game does not end, we learn something.
I see the potential benefit of this, but I am not sure it works here at 3-2 because the mafia would be taking a risk to try to end the game that way, which could lead to invalid assumptions. It could be done at 2-1.
That’s not really a bug. Think about it more.
I suppose the case where the mafia would not try to hammer when they could hammer and win is a case where mafia would otherwise win, so not try to hammer can only help town.

damo666
Posts: 16597
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:04 am
Location: London
Karma: 5524
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2646 Post by damo666 » Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:08 am

I really wish Balki hadn't made either of his suggestions.

My head aches.

I'll deal with no kill in a separate post.

With regard to the lock vote I haven't exhaustively gone through all possible sequences looking at optimal strategies and possibilities but on what have done I think it is advantageous to scum.

In fact I propose that game day tomorrow we agree that nobody will end vote and if anybody does we simply vote them .

damo666
Posts: 16597
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:04 am
Location: London
Karma: 5524
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2647 Post by damo666 » Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:23 am

With regard to NK it al depends on TG (we need to assume Bunny is CWV).

If no TG we no kill improving our chances from 1/2 to 2/3.

But if there is a TG then 3-2 no clears clearly worse than 4-2 with a clear

On the face of it with TG being 40% likely we should no kill.

But here's the problem, if scum do have TG it is to their advantage to suggest a no kill. So if we do no kill and Bunny does as CWV do we assume Balki suggested the no kill as scum and kill him? But if he is town we lose. This is why I wish he hadn't suggested it

So, I suggest we treat the day normally although Chaqa has checked out, Balki largely unavailable, Bunny overtired and rdr not checked in yet. Lol .
1

damo666
Posts: 16597
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:04 am
Location: London
Karma: 5524
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2648 Post by damo666 » Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:12 am

Bunny does => Bunny dies

BunnyGo
Posts: 13635
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:21 am
Karma: 4457
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2649 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:29 am

damo666 wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 9:08 am
I really wish Balki hadn't made either of his suggestions.

My head aches.

I'll deal with no kill in a separate post.

With regard to the lock vote I haven't exhaustively gone through all possible sequences looking at optimal strategies and possibilities but on what have done I think it is advantageous to scum.

In fact I propose that game day tomorrow we agree that nobody will end vote and if anybody does we simply vote them .
This makes more sense to me. ESPECIALLY since it isn't in the rules...there's nothing to stop scum from breaking the not rules and getting a double bite at the apple.

BunnyGo
Posts: 13635
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:21 am
Karma: 4457
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2650 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:30 am

damo666 wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 10:12 am
Bunny does => Bunny dies
Bunny slept!

rdrivera2005
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 7380
Joined: Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:17 pm
Location: Porto Alegre, Brasil
Karma: 2793
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2651 Post by rdrivera2005 » Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:38 am

I have a medical emergency with my daughter last night (she is well now, at home and sleeping) but I won't be much around today as I need to also sleep and take care of her.

I agree with no-kill today as it seems Mafia doesn't have a TG. Honestly, I doubt they will choose Koala over Bunny if they have a TG.

##vote no-kill

BunnyGo
Posts: 13635
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:21 am
Karma: 4457
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2652 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:41 am

rdrivera2005 wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:38 am
I have a medical emergency with my daughter last night (she is well now, at home and sleeping) but I won't be much around today as I need to also sleep and take care of her.

I agree with no-kill today as it seems Mafia doesn't have a TG. Honestly, I doubt they will choose Koala over Bunny if they have a TG.

##vote no-kill
I'm glad she's doing well.

BunnyGo
Posts: 13635
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:21 am
Karma: 4457
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2653 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:51 am

there's currently 2 town and 2 scum voting to no-kill.

rdr's reason is the best one I've seen so far. To no-kill and not-end.

BunnyGo
Posts: 13635
Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2019 12:21 am
Karma: 4457
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2654 Post by BunnyGo » Sat Jan 28, 2023 1:18 pm

Damo: sell me on chaqa besides just general jackassery.

I’ll admit, I’m leaning a little that way just because of KiLo last game. Seems like if he’s scum, we win by getting him, if he’s town, we lose anyways.

damo666
Posts: 16597
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:04 am
Location: London
Karma: 5524
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2655 Post by damo666 » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:43 pm

BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:51 am
there's currently 2 town and 2 scum voting to no-kill.

rdr's reason is the best one I've seen so far. To no-kill and not-end.
Correct

Wrt rdr's reasoning I'm not sure I agree. It was fairly obvious KA was gambler (why didn't he announce his bet D4 btw he could have got a save) and it was a fair assumption he hadn't bet on Bo so if I had TG I might be tempted to save it and kill KA before he was able to get a save the next day for the following night. There would be the danger (1 in 4 say) TG would be killed the next day before being able to kill the potential CWV but this might be a risk they are willing to take (especially if Balki or rdr are TG). Any way I certainly wouldn't put TG < 40%, I'd say 50/50 and with no Quack doc or RB reports possibly higher.

Both scum are voting no kill which tells you something itself.

IF YOU ARE TOWN GET OFF NO KILL

@Bunny if we remain at No Kill and TG doesn't kill you then almost certainly I will be the night kill. I don't know what to tell you really, I suspect Chaqa the most and rdr the least but there are no outliers and I can't really rule out any pair.

User avatar
Chaqa
Bronze Donator
Bronze Donator
Posts: 13229
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:33 pm
Location: Allentown, PA, USA
Karma: 7986
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2656 Post by Chaqa » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:53 pm

Popping back in to say I am not moving my vote.

Since Bunny is potentially CWV, then we are frankly idiots if we do anything else. Make mafia either take the risk and kill him, or eliminate from the VT pool.

There is no more optimal play.

Of particular note, this post from Balki:
Balki Bartokomous wrote:
Fri Jan 27, 2023 11:34 pm
By the way, I would suggest we implement something I learned about over at Mafia Universe ("MU"), At MU, LYLO/MYLO votes lock. So the moment someone votes at that stage of the game, their vote cannot change.

We could effectively do that by insisting that the person who votes first also hammer. That way, if they are a Town player voting for a scum player, the game ends, as both scum players can hammer.

The benefit of this system, is that we learn something after every vote. So let's say we have Bozo vote first. If he votes, and hammers, then we learn that either Bozo is scum, and/or Bozo is voting for scum.

Whomever Bozo voted for would then cross with Bozo, and another player would vote next. If they vote, and the game does not end, it means that they are not a Town player voting for scum, etc.

I think it is a valuable way to run a LYLO/MYLO scenario for town. There are certainly risks, but you also gain information and I think it is an easier way for town to pull out of a hole when we have to vote correctly twice in a row.

I suggest we No Kill now, and have BunnyGo pick the LYLO/MYLO voting order for tomorrow before this day ends. Ideally, BunnyGo should have players he sees as scummier voting earlier in the order.
I am sure down to my soul that if I made a post with this same idea, you would all instant hammer me, so I'm pretty much jaded on this game.

It's Damo and Balki.

User avatar
Chaqa
Bronze Donator
Bronze Donator
Posts: 13229
Joined: Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:33 pm
Location: Allentown, PA, USA
Karma: 7986
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2657 Post by Chaqa » Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:54 pm

damo666 wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:43 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:51 am
there's currently 2 town and 2 scum voting to no-kill.

rdr's reason is the best one I've seen so far. To no-kill and not-end.
Correct

Wrt rdr's reasoning I'm not sure I agree. It was fairly obvious KA was gambler (why didn't he announce his bet D4 btw he could have got a save) and it was a fair assumption he hadn't bet on Bo so if I had TG I might be tempted to save it and kill KA before he was able to get a save the next day for the following night. There would be the danger (1 in 4 say) TG would be killed the next day before being able to kill the potential CWV but this might be a risk they are willing to take (especially if Balki or rdr are TG). Any way I certainly wouldn't put TG < 40%, I'd say 50/50 and with no Quack doc or RB reports possibly higher.

Both scum are voting no kill which tells you something itself.

IF YOU ARE TOWN GET OFF NO KILL

@Bunny if we remain at No Kill and TG doesn't kill you then almost certainly I will be the night kill. I don't know what to tell you really, I suspect Chaqa the most and rdr the least but there are no outliers and I can't really rule out any pair.
"I will certainly be the night kill" says the man who will commit the nightkill.

User avatar
dargorygel
Site Moderator
Site Moderator
Posts: 6121
Joined: Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:55 pm
Location: Over the rainbow
Karma: 6249
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2658 Post by dargorygel » Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:13 pm

A Counting of the Votes for Day 5.1
No-Kill (5): Balki, Chaqa, bozo, rdr
Chaqa (1): damo
Bunny has yet to pick his nose or choice for killin.
NO KILL is set to be utterly destroyed, poor sod.
Nearly a day and 7 hours left.

damo666
Posts: 16597
Joined: Sun Dec 31, 2017 1:04 am
Location: London
Karma: 5524
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2659 Post by damo666 » Sat Jan 28, 2023 4:57 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:54 pm
damo666 wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:43 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:51 am
there's currently 2 town and 2 scum voting to no-kill.

rdr's reason is the best one I've seen so far. To no-kill and not-end.
Correct

Wrt rdr's reasoning I'm not sure I agree. It was fairly obvious KA was gambler (why didn't he announce his bet D4 btw he could have got a save) and it was a fair assumption he hadn't bet on Bo so if I had TG I might be tempted to save it and kill KA before he was able to get a save the next day for the following night. There would be the danger (1 in 4 say) TG would be killed the next day before being able to kill the potential CWV but this might be a risk they are willing to take (especially if Balki or rdr are TG). Any way I certainly wouldn't put TG < 40%, I'd say 50/50 and with no Quack doc or RB reports possibly higher.

Both scum are voting no kill which tells you something itself.

IF YOU ARE TOWN GET OFF NO KILL

@Bunny if we remain at No Kill and TG doesn't kill you then almost certainly I will be the night kill. I don't know what to tell you really, I suspect Chaqa the most and rdr the least but there are no outliers and I can't really rule out any pair.
"I will certainly be the night kill" says the man who will commit the nightkill.
If you are town kill Balki tomorrow.

rdrivera2005
Gold Donator
Gold Donator
Posts: 7380
Joined: Tue Oct 31, 2017 5:17 pm
Location: Porto Alegre, Brasil
Karma: 2793
Contact:

Re: MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

#2660 Post by rdrivera2005 » Sat Jan 28, 2023 5:29 pm

damo666 wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 3:43 pm
BunnyGo wrote:
Sat Jan 28, 2023 11:51 am
there's currently 2 town and 2 scum voting to no-kill.

rdr's reason is the best one I've seen so far. To no-kill and not-end.
Correct

Wrt rdr's reasoning I'm not sure I agree. It was fairly obvious KA was gambler (why didn't he announce his bet D4 btw he could have got a save) and it was a fair assumption he hadn't bet on Bo so if I had TG I might be tempted to save it and kill KA before he was able to get a save the next day for the following night. There would be the danger (1 in 4 say) TG would be killed the next day before being able to kill the potential CWV but this might be a risk they are willing to take (especially if Balki or rdr are TG). Any way I certainly wouldn't put TG < 40%, I'd say 50/50 and with no Quack doc or RB reports possibly higher.

Both scum are voting no kill which tells you something itself.

IF YOU ARE TOWN GET OFF NO KILL

@Bunny if we remain at No Kill and TG doesn't kill you then almost certainly I will be the night kill. I don't know what to tell you really, I suspect Chaqa the most and rdr the least but there are no outliers and I can't really rule out any pair.
I wasn't weighting the need to kill Koala because of the possible item he will get, you have a valid point. So, TG is still a possibility. Do you think taking the risk today and going for a regular voting is the best choice?

I think it's more likely a Chaqa/Bozo then Chaqa/Balki. Both scum jumping on no-kill so fast doesn't seems that likely.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: kingofthepirates, sweetandcool, Wattsthematter and 242 guests