MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[KoalaAttack]

OK, question for the group – typically, in Mafia teams you have observed before do they more frequently

(A) follow a uniform strategy – "let's all lurk", "let's all be active", "let's all push for Plan X", etc.

OR

(B) tend to adopt different styles – one lurks, one logic-reasons, one attacks or plays aggressive mind-games

???

[KoalaAttack]

Occam’s Razor

Yeah I totally get what you are saying. Hmm..

[Balki Bartokomous]

OK, question for the group – typically, in Mafia teams you have observed before do they more frequently

(A) follow a uniform strategy – "let's all lurk", "let's all be active", "let's all push for Plan X", etc.

OR

(B) tend to adopt different styles – one lurks, one logic-reasons, one attacks or plays aggressive mind-games

???

This is almost always player specific. Most of the time a mafia team will not decide to do one of these things or not do one of these things. Each mafia player will try his or her best to mimic their own town game.

Sometimes activity level can be useful in trying to decide who is scum. Sometimes there are players who try to avoid the spotlight, or can’t bring themselves to fake puzzle solving for a puzzle to which they already know the answers. But I personally think those tells are pretty rare, and can often be misleading.

[Balki Bartokomous]

Bed time for me.

Koala, if you’re looking for something to do, my advice is:

Re-read Day 1. You can probably skip over the posts from the clears and the dead. Focus on the VT claimers. Look for things that stand out, now that you know so many other alignments that you didn’t know when you read this the first time. Especially look for posts that can help show that particular combinations of the VTs are unlikely to be Mafia teammates. Eliminating these potential pairs is really helpful in solving the puzzle. If you see something that you think can help us eliminate a pair, quote it here and talk about it.

ISO the VT claimers. You can do this in Peterbot. For posts that stand out to you, think about the possible scum motivation for making the post. Think about the possible Town motivation for making the post. Evaluate which motivation strikes you as more likely.

[KoalaAttack]

Bed time for me.

Koala, if you’re looking for something to do, my advice is:

Re-read Day 1. You can probably skip over the posts from the clears and the dead. Focus on the VT claimers. Look for things that stand out, now that you know so many other alignments that you didn’t know when you read this the first time. Especially look for posts that can help show that particular combinations of the VTs are unlikely to be Mafia teammates. Eliminating these potential pairs is really helpful in solving the puzzle. If you see something that you think can help us eliminate a pair, quote it here and talk about it.

ISO the VT claimers. You can do this in Peterbot. For posts that stand out to you, think about the possible scum motivation for making the post. Think about the possible Town motivation for making the post. Evaluate which motivation strikes you as more likely.

Hmm... this feels off.

I've already sent you a bot link with your own ISO in that discussion of the fake binding vote. And I have already been talking about doing ISOs with Bunny and I have already posted at least one unpairing I found. Given that your very advice is to carefully read through what others posted, I can only assume you did not flat out miss those.

So, to apply your rubric:

The Town motivation for this post above would be... Stating the obvious that I already know? ... Honestly, the best I can come up with is "good intentions, honest mistake, simply doesn't quite know how to pair/mentor someone without overbearing" ... So, question for the rest of the folks who know Balki: does that sounds like typical Balki?

The Mafia motivation for this post though is quite clear ... butter up the new guy with nice-sounding but not actually new/useful advice, assume the role of a vizier for them, gently guide then right where you want them. And it does tie in interestingly to your earlier statements about how we should just let the PRs decide things.

[KoalaAttack]

If you see something that you think can help us eliminate a pair, quote it here and talk about it.

--->

I am pretty sure that if Bo is Mafia then bozo is Town and vice versa. First bozotheclown was sinking Bo with literally a couple minutes to go, together with 3 confirmed townies, and only by 1 vote before I created last-minute tie threat. Then he follows up again next day.
What do you reckon?

Err I should say I'm pretty sure if Bo is Mafia then bozo is Town. Less sure but still a signal the other way around.

[KoalaAttack]

##vote KoalaAttack

[KoalaAttack]

##vote KoalaAttack

No need for thumbs on the scale this early. My %s are shifting!

Come on Mafia, you can do a sneaky last-minute bus of KoalaAttack – don't you wanna give it a go?

[rdrivera2005]

##vote KoalaAttack

No need for thumbs on the scale this early. My %s are shifting!

Come on Mafia, you can do a sneaky last-minute bus of KoalaAttack – don't you wanna give it a go?

My reads have been flip floping all the time today.

I was set on Damo but he has been really better last days and I am not sure anymore.
Balki have been a lot less townie but I don't feel like voting him.
Bozo tunnel on Bo remembers me scum Bozo at some points but he is less afraid of giving reads then scum Bozo I remember.
Chaqa is giving me a weird feeling, he seems to not have doubts and all I have this game is doubts. I know he is capable of this as town like last game, but it doesn't feel the same.
And Bo have been my top town read today, but the lack of really pushing his reads make me raise an eyebrow.

Still don't want to vote Bo and Balki today.

##vote Chaqa

[damo666]

Balki gets scummier with every post.

Rdr my strongest townread of the VTs

I wonder if Bo is pocketing me.

I think Bozo would be more 'solvey' as town.

I still maintain Chaqa is the way to go today.

[damo666]

The only downside in Koala making a gambler/not gambler declaration I can think of is that if he declares gambler maf will kill him before Bunny (fear of CWV). But the upside would be he could tell us his bet and we kill that person and with any luck Koala can save himself anyway. Then repeat.

Am I missing anything? Looks a no-brainer to me.

Oh, interesting – you mean non-Gambler as in without specifying 2, 3 or 4? YES

The other downside is if I'm not Gambler that eliminates the scary 50/50 for the Mafia team. OTHER WAY ROUND?

PS: slightly suspicious the super-logic-driven Damo only sees the 1 downside where I can see at least half a dozen as a newbie!
PPS: unless you hop around and eat carrots your opinion doesn't really count as much :) OF COURSE

[damo666]

If you see something that you think can help us eliminate a pair, quote it here and talk about it.

--->

I am pretty sure that if Bo is Mafia then bozo is Town and vice versa. First bozotheclown was sinking Bo with literally a couple minutes to go, together with 3 confirmed townies, and only by 1 vote before I created last-minute tie threat. Then he follows up again next day.
What do you reckon?

Err I should say I'm pretty sure if Bo is Mafia then bozo is Town. Less sure but still a signal the other way around.

Agreed

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE lfischl

Would like to see the quiet folks speak their minds given that there is actually something of note to talk about today.

Gonna go back to my roots and ##VOTE lfischl

4 responses in 6 minutes, that must be some kind of a record.

top 3 scum suspects survey:

BunnyGo: yavuzovic, damo, bo_sox
bozo: yavuzovic, bo_sox, rdrivera
Balki: BunnyGo, damo, ghug
lfischl: yavuzovic, Chaqa, BunnyGo/Balki
worcej: Chaqa, bo_sox, bozo
ghug: bo_sox, lfischl, yavuzovic

Bunny lfischl Yav

4 responses in 6 minutes, that must be some kind of a record.

top 3 scum suspects survey:

BunnyGo: yavuzovic, damo, bo_sox
bozo: yavuzovic, bo_sox, rdrivera
Balki: BunnyGo, damo, ghug
lfischl: yavuzovic, Chaqa, BunnyGo/Balki
worcej: Chaqa, bo_sox, bozo
ghug: bo_sox, lfischl, yavuzovic

Damo, Chaqa and lfischl (but can easily replace Chaqa by Bozo) and lfischl by Yav.

Lfischl is the lowest poster of the day for the second day in a row and the only player that has tried to do anything at all about that is me, and that's after playing a game where he lurked until the very end and snuck through because the tiebreaking town vote didn't want to ask him any questions.

Arrived, but won't be really available as I was away for three days and wife, daughter and dog request my attention. But I should be around closer to EOD.

At this point I would vote almost anyone that is not Worcej and Koala (and Chaqa even not believing his claim). I would prefer Damo, Yav or lfischl. Right now ##vote Yav

Looks like everyone is quitting.

Oh well...so who was the mafia team?

Who is quitting?

@lfischl

* He looks lfischl straight in the eyes *

Tell the truth now. Are you on the scum team?

My current scum team is BunnyGo, ghug, and Lfischl.

“Because they are less active” is no longer a good reason to kill a player next phase (assuming that it ever was).

Regarding claims: note that we don’t have any sort of Cop in this game, and our trackers/watchers are weakened by scum roles that can avoid detection or screw with our results. For these reasons, we don’t have much in the way of investigative role skills. I think our PRs are most useful in the context of a mass claim to narrow down the puzzle.

Scum percentages inspired by Damo:

lfischl 80%
Balki Bartokomous 75%
bozotheclown 55%
damo666 55%
rdrivera2005 25%
bo_sox48 10%

It is clear that the remaining mafia were distancing from lfischl.

[bozotheclown]

Anyway, I think the clears help this be narrowed down a lot.

Gun to my head, right now I'd say Balki, Lfischl, Damo, though Bozo and Rivera are in my PoE as well.

I just don't think bo is scum.

Scum percentages inspired by Damo:

lfischl 80%
Balki Bartokomous 75%
bozotheclown 55%
damo666 55%
rdrivera2005 25%
bo_sox48 10%

##Vote Lfischl

I don't think Chaqa mentioned lfischl until D3, that could be an indication that a decision was made N2 to bus lfischl.

[bozotheclown]

Also what happened to the chaqa wagon?

It was only ever me and bo and apparently bo was just placating me.

Oh ok, yeah I thought I voted chaqa but apparently I didn't. I would still do it if you would

Also what happened to the chaqa wagon?

I would like to provide VOTE COUNT 2.6:

yavuzovic(3) - bozotheclown, damo666, rdrivera2005
worcej(2) - KoalaAttack(END), yavuzovic
Ghug(2) - BunnyGo, bo_sox48
bo_sox48(2) - worcej, ghug
BunnyGo(1) - Balki Bartokomous
Balki Bartokomous(1) - Chaqa

At present Yavuzovic is at the top of this list.

A bit more than an hour is left.

Lfischl has yet to vote.

well if no one votes chaqa I guess I'll vote yav ##vote yav

##vote Bo_sox48

I'm interested in chopping Bo or Chaqa today.

Where were you when I was willing to do either of these earlier this game?

Are you still willing to do chaqa?

##vote chaqa, just putting this down for now, I will be back 5-10 minutes before EOD

Considering the other mafia were definitely distancing from lfischl, these posts could be lfischl doing the same. lfischl never got around to voting for Chaqa until the end of D3.

[bozotheclown]

Lfischl is the lowest poster of the day for the second day in a row and the only player that has tried to do anything at all about that is me, and that's after playing a game where he lurked until the very end and snuck through because the tiebreaking town vote didn't want to ask him any questions.

This post was somewhat randomly placed in the middle of D2 (in that no one appeared to be talking about lfischl at the time), and bo_sox did not vote for lfischl on D2.

[Jamiet99uk]

Vote Count 4.3:

Chaqa (2) - damo666, rdrivera2005
bozotheclown (1) - BunnyGo
damo666 (1) - Chaqa
bo_sox48 (1) - bozotheclown
KoalaAttack (1) - KoalaAttack

CHAQA is set to order his last meal from Chipotle.

Balki and Bo_sox48 haven't yet voted.

9.5 hours are left.

[bozotheclown]

Arrived, but won't be really available as I was away for three days and wife, daughter and dog request my attention. But I should be around closer to EOD.

At this point I would vote almost anyone that is not Worcej and Koala (and Chaqa even not believing his claim). I would prefer Damo, Yav or lfischl. Right now ##vote Yav

This D2 vote broke a 4 way tie between 3 confirmed town and bo_sox, it could be distancing from lfischl combined with an attempt to protect bo_sox.

[bozotheclown]

I would like to provide VOTE COUNT 2.6:

yavuzovic(3) - bozotheclown, damo666, rdrivera2005
worcej(2) - KoalaAttack(END), yavuzovic
Ghug(2) - BunnyGo, bo_sox48
bo_sox48(2) - worcej, ghug
BunnyGo(1) - Balki Bartokomous
Balki Bartokomous(1) - Chaqa

At present Yavuzovic is at the top of this list.

A bit more than an hour is left.

Lfischl has yet to vote.

well if no one votes chaqa I guess I'll vote yav ##vote yav

On D1 and D2, lfischl placed his first and only vote near EOD when the top wagons were 3-2-2-2. On D1 he voted to make it 3-3-2-2, but on D3 he voted to make it 4-2-2-2. This also could have been to protect bo_sox.

[bozotheclown]

OK, question for the group – typically, in Mafia teams you have observed before do they more frequently

(A) follow a uniform strategy – "let's all lurk", "let's all be active", "let's all push for Plan X", etc.

OR

(B) tend to adopt different styles – one lurks, one logic-reasons, one attacks or plays aggressive mind-games

???

Mafia try their best to distance from each other, so they typically do not push for the same thing. Also, lurking by a player who is typically a high poster usually draws suspicion, so I think players as mafia generally try to keep their participation level consistent with what they do as town.