MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[ghug]

My current scum team is BunnyGo, ghug, and Lfischl.

“Because they are less active” is no longer a good reason to kill a player next phase (assuming that it ever was).

Regarding claims: note that we don’t have any sort of Cop in this game, and our trackers/watchers are weakened by scum roles that can avoid detection or screw with our results. For these reasons, we don’t have much in the way of investigative role skills. I think our PRs are most useful in the context of a mass claim to narrow down the puzzle.

Could you explain your scumreads?

[Balki Bartokomous]

There are no cats in America. And the streets are paved with cheese.

[ghug]

Let's assume charitably that we'll have three PRs, three scum, and four VTs alive going into tomorrow.

If we mass claim, we'll have a pool of seven to kill from, and after we've killed three of them, either we'll have killed exactly two scum at and be down to a 1/4 shot at KILO without any PRs remaining, or the game will end before that matters. If a PR dies tonight, which seems likely, we're likely out of PRs a day earlier. It makes our pool slightly smaller up front, but doesn't fundamentally alter our endgame odds. I think the PR actions themselves are probably a wash at best, since we get fewer of them and added info also benefits mafia.

On the other hand, if we wait a day (two if we catch scum tomorrow), we're far enough along that we actually give ourselves a smaller pool in the endgame while buying time for PR actions and potentially disrupting scum's miskill strategy with late breaking claims. We run the risk of running up a PR during the day, but given that we only have one miskill left, I think gambling is probably wise.

As I see it, the only benefit of mass claiming in normal games is when you're late enough that you can expect a PR to survive to the end, or you're at KILO and need to narrow the pool. In this game, we have the thorn of semi-openness, but I don't think that's enough to dramatically change the best practice.

[Chaqa]

I have D&D today but I'll do my best to my make an EoN post. Probably, unironically, from the grocery store.

Please for the love of god abandon WotC’s product due to their crusade against the OGL and VTTs

Why would I stop using the stuff I've spent hundreds and thousands of dollars on? I can play D&D without supporting wotc.

[worcej]

I have D&D today but I'll do my best to my make an EoN post. Probably, unironically, from the grocery store.

Please for the love of god abandon WotC’s product due to their crusade against the OGL and VTTs

Why would I stop using the stuff I've spent hundreds and thousands of dollars on? I can play D&D without supporting wotc.

I approve of this. I am somewhat getting what I want anyways with more people coming to PF2E and that community growing.

I just find the OGL situation appalling and have decided enough is enough. I won’t go back to 5e or One

[KoalaAttack]

KILO

What's a KILO? Other than a kilogram?

I found this but it's not on there – https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... reviations

[worcej]

Let's assume charitably that we'll have three PRs, three scum, and four VTs alive going into tomorrow.

If we mass claim, we'll have a pool of seven to kill from, and after we've killed three of them, either we'll have killed exactly two scum at and be down to a 1/4 shot at KILO without any PRs remaining, or the game will end before that matters. If a PR dies tonight, which seems likely, we're likely out of PRs a day earlier. It makes our pool slightly smaller up front, but doesn't fundamentally alter our endgame odds. I think the PR actions themselves are probably a wash at best, since we get fewer of them and added info also benefits mafia.

On the other hand, if we wait a day (two if we catch scum tomorrow), we're far enough along that we actually give ourselves a smaller pool in the endgame while buying time for PR actions and potentially disrupting scum's miskill strategy with late breaking claims. We run the risk of running up a PR during the day, but given that we only have one miskill left, I think gambling is probably wise.

As I see it, the only benefit of mass claiming in normal games is when you're late enough that you can expect a PR to survive to the end, or you're at KILO and need to narrow the pool. In this game, we have the thorn of semi-openness, but I don't think that's enough to dramatically change the best practice.

This math is complicated by the presence of any guns that may have been handed out.

[worcej]

KILO

What's a KILO? Other than a kilogram?

I found this but it's not on there – https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... reviations

It’s similar to MiLo but at KiLo the town loses if they miseliminate or tie/don’t DK.

[KoalaAttack]

KILO

What's a KILO? Other than a kilogram?

I found this but it's not on there – https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... reviations

It’s similar to MiLo but at KiLo the town loses if they miseliminate or tie/don’t DK.

Thank you

[bozotheclown]

Let's assume charitably that we'll have three PRs, three scum, and four VTs alive going into tomorrow.

If we mass claim, we'll have a pool of seven to kill from, and after we've killed three of them, either we'll have killed exactly two scum at and be down to a 1/4 shot at KILO without any PRs remaining, or the game will end before that matters. If a PR dies tonight, which seems likely, we're likely out of PRs a day earlier. It makes our pool slightly smaller up front, but doesn't fundamentally alter our endgame odds. I think the PR actions themselves are probably a wash at best, since we get fewer of them and added info also benefits mafia.

On the other hand, if we wait a day (two if we catch scum tomorrow), we're far enough along that we actually give ourselves a smaller pool in the endgame while buying time for PR actions and potentially disrupting scum's miskill strategy with late breaking claims. We run the risk of running up a PR during the day, but given that we only have one miskill left, I think gambling is probably wise.

As I see it, the only benefit of mass claiming in normal games is when you're late enough that you can expect a PR to survive to the end, or you're at KILO and need to narrow the pool. In this game, we have the thorn of semi-openness, but I don't think that's enough to dramatically change the best practice.

I think the other risk is the case where we are about to DK a mafia, and they claim PR at EOD and divert the DK to a town, using our last mis-kill.

[BunnyGo]

Sorry. Snow day, impromptu neighborhood Shabbat, and then all the catch-up today has left me not having any time for the game. My apologies. I have skimmed a catch-up while learning the latest tax laws. I have no new opinions about claiming.

One thing for chaqa and worcej to consider:

Assuming you’re both town and the PRs you claim, you may want to go to each other. If there’s no RB, they can’t stop both of you. Either chaqa sees worcej’s killer, or worcej saves chaqa. Yes, there are other ways scum powers can stop this. And yes, one or both of you may be scum. But this is a baseline level mech play.

Just something to consider in these last minutes.


Unrelated plug to Americans who don’t like preparing taxes: let us as AARP TaxAide prepare and file your taxes for free. Feel free to PM me after the game for details.

[worcej]

Here’s hoping I guessed right on my save target. I feel semi-confident that I am not dying here due to how little pull I have and scum’s only real concern is if I guess right, but maybe scum decide to give me the salvation of the god thread? Here’s hoping to that.

FWIW, my top 2 scum reads are still the same (Chaqa, Bo) but I want Bo to be flipped now for information on the original yavu voters and Koala’s tie at least. I was originally scumming bozo but that feeling has gotten lesser as the phase has proceeded. Null is the best slot I can place him. Koala is in the same null zone as bozo - the posts are towny but vote actions are what place him here.

Still feel confident that “chug”, rdr, bunny, and Balki are town for now. Posts feel more authentic and looking for information from this group.

I am feeling more iffy on Damo due to recency bias of how he played last game. He seems too unengaged right now and is fine with my dominating the thread. In fact, I think there are too many people not speaking so if I live I promise I will drastically limit my posts during D3. A nice little challenge for me to be concise and not thread dominating eh?

[Jamiet99uk]

NIGHT HAS ENDED - PLEASE HOLD

[Jamiet99uk]

Night 2 Ending

Rain fell heavily all night, turning the town's rough main street into a valley of mud. Most of the townsfolk stayed indoors, huddling in their beds, trying their best to sleep. But that proved no refuge for one of their number, found dead in his bunk as the new day dawned.

Ghug has died! He was Clarke Darrow, the Vanilla Townsperson!

DAY THREE HAS BEGUN.
YOU MAY POST.

[BunnyGo]

RIP Ghug. See you in the GT.

Off to game night.

[Chaqa]

I’m not the Watcher.

My hope is I may get the kill tonight or at least a roleblock.

Shrug

Me: “hits preview, not submit”

[Chaqa]

@worc: I actually just bought the pathfinder 2 core book as well as a Tome of Beasts from Kobold Press (for 5e, but I like 5e)

I went to tell you about it on here and realized I hadn’t ever sent my message to the thread :/

[Chaqa]

I know it's WIFOM, but I'd like to think they killed ghug expecting I'd be watching worcej.

[worcej]

@worc: I actually just bought the pathfinder 2 core book as well as a Tome of Beasts from Kobold Press (for 5e, but I like 5e)

I went to tell you about it on here and realized I hadn’t ever sent my message to the thread :/

Lol - PF2E has a lot of crunch but I love the customization options and fear system far more than the 5e one versions. Plus the 3 action system is very intuitive once you get used to it.

[Chaqa]

@worc: I actually just bought the pathfinder 2 core book as well as a Tome of Beasts from Kobold Press (for 5e, but I like 5e)

I went to tell you about it on here and realized I hadn’t ever sent my message to the thread :/

Lol - PF2E has a lot of crunch but I love the customization options and fear system far more than the 5e one versions. Plus the 3 action system is very intuitive once you get used to it.

My biggest issue is I have a BOATLOAD of 5e supplemental and 3rd party stuff, including like six kickstarter products coming this year.

My biggest pain point right now is that my campaign and most of my books are on D&D Beyond. My players use it for their sheets, though a few of them tried out paper today and it went very well (I assume), but I don't know how to get their character sheets put together w/o D&D Beyond tbh