MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[BunnyGo]

We could join you on ghug instead.

Sure. I just want 2-3 leading wagons that don’t include our PR claims on day 2. You know…it’s the little things.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I'm sorry. I forgot who I'm playing with.

You guys do it your way.

[bo_sox48]

The scumteam should already know who they’re killing tonight and claiming or not claiming really doesn’t change that.

Operating as a town with more information would make a mass claim unquestionably worthwhile regardless of what the scumteam gains or loses, but I just don’t see how we get that, and do on the other hand see how we still could be hiding a PR.

[BunnyGo]

Here is why I would not wait until tomorrow:

We will have at least two deaths between today and tomorrow. Scum do not know yet who those two deaths will be, or what buckets they will be in. I want to force scum to choose what buckets to claim in now so we can make decisions about what buckets to narrow in order to find town clears.

The main advantage from waiting is to keep PRs hidden another night, but there are enough claims out there now that scum probably have enough info to have a good chance at shooting and killing a PR tonight anyway.

Is this a scum slip?

[bo_sox48]

We could join you on ghug instead.

Sure. I just want 2-3 leading wagons that don’t include our PR claims on day 2. You know…it’s the little things.

I never really had any intention of keeping Chaqa up top, but I saw an opportunity to help worcej get his head back in the game and took it

##VOTE ghug

[rdrivera2005]

I still want Damo (or anyone else) refute my math where it seems we don't have any real gain on probabilities to find scum (unless Mafia are all brain dead) if we mass claim today and just expose our PRs.

[bo_sox48]

Here is why I would not wait until tomorrow:

We will have at least two deaths between today and tomorrow. Scum do not know yet who those two deaths will be, or what buckets they will be in. I want to force scum to choose what buckets to claim in now so we can make decisions about what buckets to narrow in order to find town clears.

The main advantage from waiting is to keep PRs hidden another night, but there are enough claims out there now that scum probably have enough info to have a good chance at shooting and killing a PR tonight anyway.

Is this a scum slip?

I am not sold on it if you’re thinking of what I think you’re thinking of, but in case you’re not then please share with the class.

[Balki Bartokomous]

The scumteam should already know who they’re killing tonight and claiming or not claiming really doesn’t change that.

Operating as a town with more information would make a mass claim unquestionably worthwhile regardless of what the scumteam gains or loses, but I just don’t see how we get that, and do on the other hand see how we still could be hiding a PR.

Because the scum team has to choose which buckets to claim in.

If they all claim to be VTs, then we have three clear PRs. Not too bad. If one scum claims PR and two claim VTs, then we can start to put teams together, and we may have mechanical ways to root out the fake. I don't know exactly what we're going to be able to do, but the point here is that we force scum to take a position before they really know the best way to claim in order to survive a long time.

[ghug]

So it seems there's no hooker? Most of the way through D2 and nobody claimed RB'd, and nobody did that vague "should we claim if we were RB'd?" question they get when they are Vanilla Town and get the RB message.

Other (less likely) options:

Scum thought HB was doctor and would self-save, so they RB'd him.

Someone was roleblocked and decided not to share that information with the class.

The Hooker decided to take a night off.

Good question. I'd forgotten.

RB/kill seems incredibly likely to me given that the kill looked PR-hunty and the existence of a roleblock is valuable info. Why don't you feel that way?

[ghug]

I am not reading 8 pages of worcej crying lmao, good grief

This is like when mommy and daddy are fighting and you're happy because they're being horrible to each other and not you.

What kind of parents did you have? Maybe this explains some things, lol.

I should state in case they're watching that my parents are lovely and I'm my own fault.

[rdrivera2005]

Here is why I would not wait until tomorrow:

We will have at least two deaths between today and tomorrow. Scum do not know yet who those two deaths will be, or what buckets they will be in. I want to force scum to choose what buckets to claim in now so we can make decisions about what buckets to narrow in order to find town clears.

The main advantage from waiting is to keep PRs hidden another night, but there are enough claims out there now that scum probably have enough info to have a good chance at shooting and killing a PR tonight anyway.

That's a decent reasoning, but we would probably still end with equal buckets on chance to get scum, so probably it's best to wait until tomorrow.
The only big motivation to mass claim today is to avoid scum coordination, but I am not sure it's worth.

[damo666]

I still want Damo (or anyone else) refute my math where it seems we don't have any real gain on probabilities to find scum (unless Mafia are all brain dead) if we mass claim today and just expose our PRs.

9<11

[bo_sox48]

The scumteam should already know who they’re killing tonight and claiming or not claiming really doesn’t change that.

Operating as a town with more information would make a mass claim unquestionably worthwhile regardless of what the scumteam gains or loses, but I just don’t see how we get that, and do on the other hand see how we still could be hiding a PR.

Because the scum team has to choose which buckets to claim in.

If they all claim to be VTs, then we have three clear PRs. Not too bad. If one scum claims PR and two claim VTs, then we can start to put teams together, and we may have mechanical ways to root out the fake. I don't know exactly what we're going to be able to do, but the point here is that we force scum to take a position before they really know the best way to claim in order to survive a long time.

We also don’t know what information our hidden PR(s) may bring to the table if they remain hidden, and I am not convinced that the mafia doesn’t have a roleblocker given they were obviously PR, or maybe even doc specifically, hunting last night

[BunnyGo]

So it seems there's no hooker? Most of the way through D2 and nobody claimed RB'd, and nobody did that vague "should we claim if we were RB'd?" question they get when they are Vanilla Town and get the RB message.

Other (less likely) options:

Scum thought HB was doctor and would self-save, so they RB'd him.

Someone was roleblocked and decided not to share that information with the class.

The Hooker decided to take a night off.

Good question. I'd forgotten.

RB/kill seems incredibly likely to me given that the kill looked PR-hunty and the existence of a roleblock is valuable info. Why don't you feel that way?

I hadn’t considered strongly enough the scum team would be intentionally hiding the hooker. It’s not THAT much information. If (for example) they suspected chaqa was really claiming, then RBing him is much more crucial.

I might be undervaluing the play though.

[ghug]

Yav is clear leader in the survey with 5 votes.

Ghug and lfischl hav him as a suspect but are not voting him. Suggest you switch .

WHY?!

He's end voting a hatdclaimed doc.

No he's not.

[bo_sox48]

Why did I just ruin this day by crossposting agreement with ghug on something

[damo666]

People who have agreed to be here and claim their role at exactly 10:00 am PT
1. Balki
2. Damo VT
3. Worcej Doc
4. Chaqa PR
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.

[rdrivera2005]

I still want Damo (or anyone else) refute my math where it seems we don't have any real gain on probabilities to find scum (unless Mafia are all brain dead) if we mass claim today and just expose our PRs.

9<11

Ok, this is true.
Could you elaborate a bit on how this apply to massclaim?

[bo_sox48]

So it seems there's no hooker? Most of the way through D2 and nobody claimed RB'd, and nobody did that vague "should we claim if we were RB'd?" question they get when they are Vanilla Town and get the RB message.

Other (less likely) options:

Scum thought HB was doctor and would self-save, so they RB'd him.

Someone was roleblocked and decided not to share that information with the class.

The Hooker decided to take a night off.

Good question. I'd forgotten.

RB/kill seems incredibly likely to me given that the kill looked PR-hunty and the existence of a roleblock is valuable info. Why don't you feel that way?

I hadn’t considered strongly enough the scum team would be intentionally hiding the hooker. It’s not THAT much information. If (for example) they suspected chaqa was really claiming, then RBing him is much more crucial.

I might be undervaluing the play though.

The working theory at least in my head is that the RB also landed on Brian.

[ghug]

News to me (re: Koala)

And I do not retract my claim.

It’s pretty comedic worcej is voting for a claimed PR while crying about being a claimed PR under suspicion

##unvote by now.

We are starting to have too many claims to believe them all.

Chaqa, you are really claiming Watcher and that you Watched Balki last night? Seriously?

The Balki thing was just a joke tbh, since he was claiming veteran

I'm also PR though, so we have five.