MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[damo666]

There are 2 PR claimants voting each other. Something ain't right.

The point is that with this semi-open setup any scum going to be DKed will claim, it's the obvious thing to do, so any claim that can't be confirmed is weak by definition. And at this point I think if anyone can CC Worcej or Chaqa it's probably a good idea to do so, as we have only two miskills left and if all scum claim we just lose.

I find a bit weird you asking this kind of question, I don't remember you being bad at mechanics.

Do you think we should ask the remaining PR(s) to claim now? Soon? Just let them play their best?

No doubt I'll get scumread for this but as the doc is apparently outed I am not averse to a mass claim now.

[rdrivera2005]

There are 2 PR claimants voting each other. Something ain't right.

The point is that with this semi-open setup any scum going to be DKed will claim, it's the obvious thing to do, so any claim that can't be confirmed is weak by definition. And at this point I think if anyone can CC Worcej or Chaqa it's probably a good idea to do so, as we have only two miskills left and if all scum claim we just lose.

I find a bit weird you asking this kind of question, I don't remember you being bad at mechanics.

I was wondering if Chaqa was effectively counter claiming by voting Chaqa but he's moved off now.

I don't think worcej could fake that emotion do you?

Agree. I believe Worcej's claim.

[BunnyGo]

The point is that with this semi-open setup any scum going to be DKed will claim, it's the obvious thing to do, so any claim that can't be confirmed is weak by definition. And at this point I think if anyone can CC Worcej or Chaqa it's probably a good idea to do so, as we have only two miskills left and if all scum claim we just lose.

I find a bit weird you asking this kind of question, I don't remember you being bad at mechanics.

Do you think we should ask the remaining PR(s) to claim now? Soon? Just let them play their best?

No. Just if someone can CC. And maybe a real Watcher should wait until Chaqa clarifies his claim before counterclaiming. But you understand that any scum close to being DKed will claim and we will need to eventually kill someone that claimed a PR? Making it a 50/50 is a better chance to town I think.

I do understand that. Hence the possibility of a massclaim to take that tactic away from them.

[damo666]

I don't think Koala is gambler (he wants to sacrifice himself) and don't give any town points to Damo for pointing this.

The self sacrifice was a bluff?

You think a first time player who is going down the hard logic route AND is a PR would think to bluff like that while under no pressure?

He made a poker analogy

[damo666]

Do you think we should ask the remaining PR(s) to claim now? Soon? Just let them play their best?

No. Just if someone can CC. And maybe a real Watcher should wait until Chaqa clarifies his claim before counterclaiming. But you understand that any scum close to being DKed will claim and we will need to eventually kill someone that claimed a PR? Making it a 50/50 is a better chance to town I think.

I do understand that. Hence the possibility of a massclaim to take that tactic away from them.

Quite

[damo666]

I HARDCLAIM NOT DOCTOR

[rdrivera2005]

Do you think we should ask the remaining PR(s) to claim now? Soon? Just let them play their best?

No. Just if someone can CC. And maybe a real Watcher should wait until Chaqa clarifies his claim before counterclaiming. But you understand that any scum close to being DKed will claim and we will need to eventually kill someone that claimed a PR? Making it a 50/50 is a better chance to town I think.

I do understand that. Hence the possibility of a massclaim to take that tactic away from them.

Someone will need to check the math, but we will have two groups (claimants and non claimants). If all scum claim it's 5 clear VTs and 6 PR claims, so we need to find 3 on 6(50%, best scenario). If no scum claim we have 3 clears and 9 to sort (3 on 9- 33%). If only 1 scum claim we have 1 on 4 and 2 on 8 (25%). If two scum claim we have 2 on 5 and 1 on 7 (not sure how we calculate the odds here, but I think it's around 30%).

If we don't force a massclaim we have 3 on 12 (25%) which is the same of the worst case where only one scum claim. So, I think we might need to wait at least one more day otherwise we don't have a clear gain for exposing our PRs.

[Chaqa]

As if me jokingly claiming my role early when no one would believe it isn't something I would do.

I literally told brain he caught me as being Godfather once on day 1 or something and I never died.

[Chaqa]

FWIW I think ghug is probably not town.

[worcej]

As if me jokingly claiming my role early when no one would believe it isn't something I would do.

I literally told brain he caught me as being Godfather once on day 1 or something and I never died.

This is the problem with analyzing you - you play so loosely that it's entire possible that you are actually a PR and have been so brazenly throwing it out there.

And then there's the possibility that you're doing it as scum. I already addressed this.

Then - couple those possibilities with how you've been playing lately and your mood about mafia being meh. It makes total sense for a player who isn't really into mafia being so open about being a "PR" as a scum play just to spice it up a little bit for themselves.

[BunnyGo]

FWIW I think ghug is probably not town.

Then let’s get a better second wagon going.

##vote Ghug

[damo666]

No. Just if someone can CC. And maybe a real Watcher should wait until Chaqa clarifies his claim before counterclaiming. But you understand that any scum close to being DKed will claim and we will need to eventually kill someone that claimed a PR? Making it a 50/50 is a better chance to town I think.

I do understand that. Hence the possibility of a massclaim to take that tactic away from them.

Someone will need to check the math, but we will have two groups (claimants and non claimants). If all scum claim it's 5 clear VTs and 6 PR claims, so we need to find 3 on 6(50%, best scenario). If no scum claim we have 3 clears and 9 to sort (3 on 9- 33%). If only 1 scum claim we have 1 on 4 and 2 on 8 (25%). If two scum claim we have 2 on 5 and 1 on 7 (not sure how we calculate the odds here, but I think it's around 30%).

If we don't force a massclaim we have 3 on 12 (25%) which is the same of the worst case where only one scum claim. So, I think we might need to wait at least one more day otherwise we don't have a clear gain for exposing our PRs.

5+6 = 11, should be 6 VTs if all scum claim PR.

I think rdr just townslipped. Hurrah!

[Chaqa]

As if me jokingly claiming my role early when no one would believe it isn't something I would do.

I literally told brain he caught me as being Godfather once on day 1 or something and I never died.

This is the problem with analyzing you - you play so loosely that it's entire possible that you are actually a PR and have been so brazenly throwing it out there.

And then there's the possibility that you're doing it as scum. I already addressed this.

Then - couple those possibilities with how you've been playing lately and your mood about mafia being meh. It makes total sense for a player who isn't really into mafia being so open about being a "PR" as a scum play just to spice it up a little bit for themselves.

idk man I put a lot of effort into last game, I just got a 50/50 wrong.

[damo666]

At the moment from a tpov there are 3 scum from 11.

If we massclaim we are in a better position whatever scum claim.

I suggest we massclaim NOW before mafia have a chance to coordinate. There is a significant chance mafia will select sub-optimally.

I HARDCLAIM VT

[Chaqa]

At the moment from a tpov there are 3 scum from 11.

If we massclaim we are in a better position whatever scum claim.

I suggest we massclaim NOW before mafia have a chance to coordinate. There is a significant chance mafia will select sub-optimally.

I HARDCLAIM VT

This seems a little out of character for you, no?

We should wait til tomorrow I think.

[damo666]

At the moment from a tpov there are 3 scum from 11.

If we massclaim we are in a better position whatever scum claim.

I suggest we massclaim NOW before mafia have a chance to coordinate. There is a significant chance mafia will select sub-optimally.

I HARDCLAIM VT

This seems a little out of character for you, no?

We should wait til tomorrow I think.

I did the sums. It's the better way to go. I don't want scum to coordinate. I suggest everyone claim today.

[damo666]

As long as no vt stupidly claims PR we are wcs 3/9. Bcs 3/4 (but mafia would have to be very stupid).

[BunnyGo]

Damo has left my top 3 scum reads today.

[bo_sox48]

Another reason Chaqa is unlikely to be town PR is there is a maximum of only one left.
It is pretty obvious Koala is gambler.

I townread you for being obtuse enough to say this out loud after the mafia team killed HB last night, indicating that they probably aren’t smart enough to figure this out for themselves.

[Balki Bartokomous]

I think that enough cats are out of enough bags that we should mass claim. This is especially true here where we may have items (guns, etc.) that we can give to our clear townies, should we get any from this exercise.

I would suggest that we claim in an organized way. Either (a) we set an order here in this thread and insist that people claim in that order, or else (b) we set a time when everyone is available and we claim at that exact time.

I am pretty sure that (b) is preferable, but only if we can coordinate it and everyone is available at the same time. And if we do this, the sooner the better.

I am going to propose right now that we do a mass claim in 1 hour and 48 minutes, at 10:00 am PT. Please confirm that you agree and are available at that time.