MAFIA 77: RETURN TO THE WEST [GAME THREAD] - [HIDDEN]

[Balki Bartokomous]

Yeah, let's leave worcej alive right now.

##unvote

We'll know more info about that slot later.

[worcej]

But isn't the entire point of this whole game that it forces us to guess, and we want to kill someone because we do not currently have relatively *better* reasons to kill someone else?

Sure, but if you have no better reason to kill anyone at this point other than going with what you presented for me, then I inherently want you to be killed because, if you're town, you're demonstrating an inability to think beyond yourself and all scum need to do is buddy up to you and play nice to avoid your attention.

I have a far better reason now – yavozovic logic post which unlocks bonus info about lfishl and yavuzovic. That's on top of not-screwing-over-and-helping our Gambler, if there is on.

You have done a fine job addressing the emotional arguments (throwing a tantrum that folks can either find defensive or believe is a valid strategy).

I would love to hear your thoughts on that logical discussion. They would tell me (A) how skilled you are at logic and (B) assuming skilled, your sincerity.

Can you be more specific on the logical discussion your referencing? I'd like to make sure we are referring to the same thing.

[worcej]

##vote worcej

PR is unlikely to help us anymore anyway. I think the claim makes him slightly more likely to be mafia, because that claim is consistent with what mafia would do in that situation, and inconsistent with what any town role other than doctor would do in that situation.

And, very very minor consideration, but we also may get a Gambler item if we chop worcej today.

Note: I would be a lot more inclined to believe worcej if he had dropped a breadcrumb some place.

By extending your thought process a little bit, you think doctor would be the most logical scum claim in this situation?

[Balki Bartokomous]

##vote BunnyGo

Just trying to make an impression on him this time.

[worcej]

Anyways... my ranting is done for now. Back to the point of my scum list:

• Chaqa's new "meta" is to maintain low effort, but this level of low effort is special in my eyes compared to last game. This game he's latched onto scumming me for a reason that has yet to be seen and continues to jump onto me once someone else actually puts forward a reason - he is following and enabling potential town pushes without actually risking any exposure. It's perfect low-effort scum play.
• Bo is coming off as opportunistic and did good effort to seal in the kill on pyxxy by forcing the issue of his lack of substance. I also see a connection of movement with Chaqa and some distancing occurring between the two, so I primarily want to flip Chaqa first because I see an easy scum pair with the two of them.
• My scumread of bozo is also because he's off meta right now and being more passive when it comes to analytics. It's weak, but I expected some type of effort towards what we think the PRs are to validate an approach to the game. Not seeing something like this by now makes me go a little

I did not see any way to use the random distribution of PRs to obtain information that was more useful to town than to mafia, although at some point we may need to mass claim because we will probably accumulate PR claims instead of mafia DKs.

Why do you think bo_sox would be more likely to push for a pyxxy DK as mafia than as town if D1 was TvT?

I don't think bo would push pyxxy more as mafia vs town. My specific point was, as mafia, his push was to get a potential MK over lfischl, damo, or Bunny and I see a connection to him with Chaqa via distancing and lack of engagement.

[damo666]

Monday pub poker, Tuesday pub poker (different pub), Wednesday just drinking.

What a country...can organize legal gambling games in pubs...

Speaking of gambling: do you think there's one among us? Do you think they were paying attention? And do you think this parlay is worth scuttling our day 2 action? Would you have participated had you been around last night?

I would like to share a few thoughts on this with the group.

1. I believe there was a discussion earlier in the game where we have established than there is a higher probability than there is a Gambler vs than there is not – and if my math is correct, by a good margin.

2. Since the beginning of the game, there has been a clear & strong emphasis on folks being around and paying attention. There were even suggestions to vote for low contributors! Additionally, given that this game is made up of mostly experienced players, I would imagine an experience player who was assigned the Gambler role would make sure to be around and catch up for when their action are required. Wouldn't you all agree?

3. Even if there is no gambler, the discussion we had with yavozovic regarding "unveiling worcej has the extra benefit of giving us significant additional info on lfischl and yavuzovic, because if worcej is Mafia the other 2 must be Town" still applies. So, if one of the guesses has such big extra benefit, why wouldn't we go down that path?

4. Feels a tad like another attempt to derail the binding vote to me. Suspicious.



I personally think Mafia are worcej, ghug, and BunnyGo at this point (please don't take it personally if I nnamed you incorrectly – I simply have no information supporting a "better alternative hypothesis". I have no clue if saying this is smart of silly – maybe now I'll get 3 votes against me from these folks (plus Mafia bandwagon if I'm wrong). Oh well, it's a game, I'll give it a shot :)

In the absence of any other info it's a 50% chance, from a town PR [non gambler] it's < 50%, from a gambler pov it's 100%. With any PR claims that can be afforded even the least bit of credence it's < 50%. It can only be > 50% for the gambler themselves (or until exposed by death).

[KoalaAttack]

Anyways... my ranting is done for now. Back to the point of my scum list:

• Chaqa's new "meta" is to maintain low effort, but this level of low effort is special in my eyes compared to last game. This game he's latched onto scumming me for a reason that has yet to be seen and continues to jump onto me once someone else actually puts forward a reason - he is following and enabling potential town pushes without actually risking any exposure. It's perfect low-effort scum play.
• Bo is coming off as opportunistic and did good effort to seal in the kill on pyxxy by forcing the issue of his lack of substance. I also see a connection of movement with Chaqa and some distancing occurring between the two, so I primarily want to flip Chaqa first because I see an easy scum pair with the two of them.
• My scumread of bozo is also because he's off meta right now and being more passive when it comes to analytics. It's weak, but I expected some type of effort towards what we think the PRs are to validate an approach to the game. Not seeing something like this by now makes me go a little

This does not add up. You literally just told me how my koala memes etc caused me to be on your suspect list earlier. Why am I not on here?

[KoalaAttack]

In the absence of any other info it's a 50% chance, from a town PR [non gambler] it's < 50%, from a gambler pov it's 100%. With any PR claims that can be afforded even the least bit of credence it's < 50%. It can only be > 50% for the gambler themselves (or until exposed by death).

Thank you Damo, in that case I stand corrected. (And I confess to being lazy and not doing the probability math myself.)

[damo666]

You really should have waited. Balki saying he wasn’t hammering pretty much assured that I took down my end vote, and I imagine the others would have rolled the same way.

##unvote

Can we please kill bo?

Ironically this post of Bo's was precisely the reason I unvoted him.

[ghug]

##vote worcej

PR is unlikely to help us anymore anyway. I think the claim makes him slightly more likely to be mafia, because that claim is consistent with what mafia would do in that situation, and inconsistent with what any town role other than doctor would do in that situation.

And, very very minor consideration, but we also may get a Gambler item if we chop worcej today.

Note: I would be a lot more inclined to believe worcej if he had dropped a breadcrumb some place.

Oof

[worcej]

Alrighty – then my question becomes: to those who have played with worcej before, do they flip the lid & throw a tantrum everytime they are voted on?

I am biased, but yes typically I am notorious for OMGUS'ing so it's very easy to get my alignment figured out by pushing me and watching my reaction.

Oh, and if I am ever overly-nice, I am probably scum.

If you were about to be DKed as mafia, would you not react the same way, if that is what is expected of you as town?

This is an unusual question because it's really NAI and just a lot of WIFOM.

Every PR is expected to provide a claim near death and people regularly criticize the PR player if they don't claim after the fact.

We also expect scum to fake claim to drive a CC or randomly stay alive, thus why doubt like Balki's exists.

So - I guess it's up to you to infer your judgment here because expectations overlap - am I being truthful or not?

[KoalaAttack]

Can you be more specific on the logical discussion your referencing? I'd like to make sure we are referring to the same thing.

I don't really feel like it to be honest. Last time I did that, you just told me I re-posted previous posts and gave me an angro-rant-lecture on better formatting. Frankly, it's too much effort.

You seem to be perfectly capable of reading the backscroll of posts and responding. I will simply elect to treat as Suspicious that you chose to skip those :)

I could be absolutely wrong, but all the conversations this morning have done is solidified my vote for you. But again, I can be convinced otherwise (just not by you at this point) – and I hope you do not take it personally.

[BunnyGo]

@worcej,

I'm trying to understand why you are so angry. People get mischopped all the time in this game. It was the potential hammer that made you so mad?

Also, I retract my role claim. My role is unknown.

What did you learn from your fake claim experiment? Can you share with the class?

I try to share things that I learn as I learn them.

You were going to tell us what you learned while fake claiming? There’s nothing more to share now that your fake claim is done?

[worcej]

Anyways... my ranting is done for now. Back to the point of my scum list:

• Chaqa's new "meta" is to maintain low effort, but this level of low effort is special in my eyes compared to last game. This game he's latched onto scumming me for a reason that has yet to be seen and continues to jump onto me once someone else actually puts forward a reason - he is following and enabling potential town pushes without actually risking any exposure. It's perfect low-effort scum play.
• Bo is coming off as opportunistic and did good effort to seal in the kill on pyxxy by forcing the issue of his lack of substance. I also see a connection of movement with Chaqa and some distancing occurring between the two, so I primarily want to flip Chaqa first because I see an easy scum pair with the two of them.
• My scumread of bozo is also because he's off meta right now and being more passive when it comes to analytics. It's weak, but I expected some type of effort towards what we think the PRs are to validate an approach to the game. Not seeing something like this by now makes me go a little

This does not add up. You literally just told me how my koala memes etc caused me to be on your suspect list earlier. Why am I not on here?

You need to understand the nuances of being suspect versus being an active scum read.

Also, I made my comment about you on D1 and you continue to reference that as if I am being inconsistent now that we've experienced N1 and are now on D2.

[ghug]

You really should have waited. Balki saying he wasn’t hammering pretty much assured that I took down my end vote, and I imagine the others would have rolled the same way.

##unvote

Can we please kill bo?

Ironically this post of Bo's was precisely the reason I unvoted him.

I find the post more scummy at a human level than a mafia one, but I'm also seeing very little town motivation from bo.

[damo666]

But isn't the entire point of this whole game that it forces us to guess, and we want to kill someone because we do not currently have relatively *better* reasons to kill someone else?

It sure is, KoalaAttack.

I like this KoalaAttack person.

Alrighty – then my question becomes: to those who have played with worcej before, do they flip the lid & throw a tantrum everytime they are voted on?

Not every time but this ain't the first!

[bozotheclown]

I am biased, but yes typically I am notorious for OMGUS'ing so it's very easy to get my alignment figured out by pushing me and watching my reaction.

Oh, and if I am ever overly-nice, I am probably scum.

If you were about to be DKed as mafia, would you not react the same way, if that is what is expected of you as town?

This is an unusual question because it's really NAI and just a lot of WIFOM.

Every PR is expected to provide a claim near death and people regularly criticize the PR player if they don't claim after the fact.

We also expect scum to fake claim to drive a CC or randomly stay alive, thus why doubt like Balki's exists.

So - I guess it's up to you to infer your judgment here because expectations overlap - am I being truthful or not?

My point was that it is WIFOM, and should not be given too much consideration.

[BunnyGo]

But isn't the entire point of this whole game that it forces us to guess, and we want to kill someone because we do not currently have relatively *better* reasons to kill someone else?

Sure, but if you have no better reason to kill anyone at this point other than going with what you presented for me, then I inherently want you to be killed because, if you're town, you're demonstrating an inability to think beyond yourself and all scum need to do is buddy up to you and play nice to avoid your attention.

I have a far better reason now – yavozovic logic post which unlocks bonus info about lfishl and yavuzovic. That's on top of not-screwing-over-and-helping our Gambler, if there is on.

You have done a fine job addressing the emotional arguments (throwing a tantrum that folks can either find defensive or believe is a valid strategy).

I would love to hear your thoughts on that logical discussion. They would tell me (A) how skilled you are at logic and (B) assuming skilled, your sincerity.

Question for you:

What do you think is easier to fake as scum: gut level reads and hunting, or posting technically correct logic that leads to incorrect answers because of flawed assumptions?

I’m leading you a bit here on my opinion, but I’m curious as to your reaction to my thoughts.

[worcej]

Can you be more specific on the logical discussion your referencing? I'd like to make sure we are referring to the same thing.

I don't really feel like it to be honest. Last time I did that, you just told me I re-posted previous posts and gave me an angro-rant-lecture on better formatting. Frankly, it's too much effort.

You seem to be perfectly capable of reading the backscroll of posts and responding. I will simply elect to treat as Suspicious that you chose to skip those :)

I could be absolutely wrong, but all the conversations this morning have done is solidified my vote for you. But again, I can be convinced otherwise (just not by you at this point) – and I hope you do not take it personally.

Wow, kinda miffed at this only because it's lazy and annoying.

Don't ask me to respond to something and then I ask you to clarify what your referencing to (because you're being vague to begin with), you choose to bow out because I might be aggro at your shit wall post.

I came at this trying to faithfully engage with you and you're just being elusive to it because I asked for clarification.

[BunnyGo]

##vote BunnyGo

Just trying to make an impression on him this time.

Have we met? I’m Bunny!