M1023: Mafarmia [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

[Kakarroto]

A Chaqa, damo, lfischl scum team is not unreasonable, with Chaqa's unexplained D1 damo vote, Chaqa's unexplained lfischl town read, and damo's suggestion of a Chaqa information DK with little effort to make it happen.

You really think that I as third man would urge an info flip on Chaqa with the reasoning he is co-aligned with lfischl? Come on!

I still maintain Chaqa is the best flip tomorrow (and if he slips scum Bozo is quasi clear).

This should be D3 D4 D5 strategy

D3 kill Chaqa, if scum kill lfischl D4, if town kill Bozo D4. If D4 does not result is a scum flip kill me D5 (if I'm here).

please give your honest opinion to the blue coloured text. How fortunate is it that the second last mafia left such a blueprint for the next days, involving the three now most likely to survive to the last 3?

[Chaqa]

I assume either myself or Kak dies tonight.

If i die, Kak, I trust you. I think it's more likely Bozo is mafia at this point, but I'm sure you'll make the right choice in the end.

[bozotheclown]

A Chaqa, damo, lfischl scum team is not unreasonable, with Chaqa's unexplained D1 damo vote, Chaqa's unexplained lfischl town read, and damo's suggestion of a Chaqa information DK with little effort to make it happen.

You really think that I as third man would urge an info flip on Chaqa with the reasoning he is co-aligned with lfischl? Come on!

I still maintain Chaqa is the best flip tomorrow (and if he slips scum Bozo is quasi clear).

This should be D3 D4 D5 strategy

D3 kill Chaqa, if scum kill lfischl D4, if town kill Bozo D4. If D4 does not result is a scum flip kill me D5 (if I'm here).

please give your honest opinion to the blue coloured text. How fortunate is it that the second last mafia left such a blueprint for the next days, involving the three now most likely to survive to the last 3?

Fortunate for who? If lfischl is the last mafia, this "strategy" would have resulted in 2 mis-kills.

[bozotheclown]

i would be fine with either a bozo or worcej vote

##vote worcej for competitiveness

I would be good with this as well, or heart

Why did you say you were OK DKing worcej D3 when you knew he was the doctor?

[Kakarroto]

damo quotes:

Obviously not a lot to go on, NOT gonna vote for the following today

Bozo - too useful if town
Chaqa - because he has bleated
damo - because that would be silly
ghug - see bozo
heartthrob - NEW
Kak - too noisy to be scum
rdr - sheepclaim

So am left with

Bona
Bo
Bunny
celaph
lfischl
worcej

Of these worcej gets a pass as he hasn't spoken yet and celaph will give himself away if scum.

Bo a la worcej, Bona already under pressure. Leaves Bunny or fish.

I'll ##vote lfischl.

Don't think there's a great deal to be learned from day 1 voting other than maybe Chaqa was saved?

Maybe flip Chaqa next. Would a give a strong indicator to lfischl's alignment.

Apologies for lack of engagement, it's been a pretty busy time for me.

The main discussion point at the moment seems to be the survey. The main advantage I can see is that it will get progressively more uncomfortable for scum. The dog itself has to make it up (not that's a problem of itself and anybody finding the dog has to invent subsequently (again not a problem). The problem is I don't see how we gain and I am worried that there are so many antis, there may be a downside I cannot see for myself. I trust rdr and for that reason I am not going to participate.

I don't think Bozo has done this maliciously and suspect the votes on him are misplaced.

To Rdr's above point that there survey mechanics are dominating the thread, I want to review the people who aren't coming up particularly often.

Damo: He has been rather inactive as a whole, but when he has been around I feel like he's done a great job condensing down what has happened into reasonable points. My big wish is that he made more content so we'd have more to go off of.
@Damo

• Besides Chaqa, who do you scum/town read?
• What convinced you to vote for Bunny yesterday?

Chaqa: Nothing he did D1 gave me any confidence that he was town. N1 his only notable post was that he townlocked lfischl which he hasn't since explained (small townlean to lfischl for his reaction to this). I think he's done a great job today explaining why Kak is towncore, but I'm otherwise rather meh on him today.
@Chaqa, what are your current views on Damo and Worcej?

lfischl: I really struggle to parse his comments in a way that makes sense to me. At least it feels like he's asking good questions, but the lack of his own opinion is rather scummy.

i) townread Kak and rdr and slightly less so Bona. Don't particularly scumread anyone yet really. Insufficient data.

ii) sheeping Bona, but note I ended up on Bona

I think Chaqa and fish are prob same alignment

Why didn't he save himself? Bozo more likely Maf than PR no? Bonkers!

Kakarroto
lfischl
Bonatogether
heartthrob24909
bo_sox47
worcej
damo666
bozotheclown

This is roughly where I'm at

And this is where I am at [Scum to Town] with % chance of being scum

Chaqa 50
lfischl 50

Bona 40
Bozo 40

heart 37.5
worcej 37.5

Kak 30
Bo 19.5*


* spurious precision to force a total of 300

[Kakarroto]

heartthrob quotes:

##vote Kak
I'm leaning the way of the survey is a good thing in the interest of general info gain even if earlier I wasn't sure exactly how we'd use the info

##vote Kak
I'm leaning the way of the survey is a good thing in the interest of general info gain even if earlier I wasn't sure exactly how we'd use the info

Are you voting for Kaka or against bozo?

against bozo

With only one mis-kill left, I think it would be a good idea to have everyone go on record with their scum pool, up to 4:

bozo: Bonatogether, Chaqa, damo, Kakarroto
Chaqa: bo_sox, bozo, damo, worcej

1. Chaqa or damo but not both, because of this feud
2. worcej, because i have a foggier idea of where they stand compared to some others like bona which i'm more confident about being town
3. Even though I place trust in bozotheclown and his survey i could be swayed on him bc of how the celaph vote turned out, even though i voted for celaph too.
4. bo_sox strikes me as aggressive but not necessarily mafia, lol.
5. I think that leaves Kak and lfisch

i'm gonna brainstorm this Q to try and come up with a solid guess of 4 but that's where my head is at in general

[Kakarroto]

lfischl quotes:

Obviously not a lot to go on, NOT gonna vote for the following today

Bozo - too useful if town
Chaqa - because he has bleated
damo - because that would be silly
ghug - see bozo
heartthrob - NEW
Kak - too noisy to be scum
rdr - sheepclaim

So am left with

Bona
Bo
Bunny
celaph
lfischl
worcej

Of these worcej gets a pass as he hasn't spoken yet and celaph will give himself away if scum.

Bo a la worcej, Bona already under pressure. Leaves Bunny or fish.

I'll ##vote lfischl.

That’s quite rude of you

I feel like bona is scum just because of the volume of shitposting he has done, I haven’t played in a while, does he do this as scum?

Obviously not a lot to go on, NOT gonna vote for the following today

Bozo - too useful if town
Chaqa - because he has bleated
damo - because that would be silly
ghug - see bozo
heartthrob - NEW
Kak - too noisy to be scum
rdr - sheepclaim

So am left with

Bona
Bo
Bunny
celaph
lfischl
worcej

Of these worcej gets a pass as he hasn't spoken yet and celaph will give himself away if scum.

Bo a la worcej, Bona already under pressure. Leaves Bunny or fish.

I'll ##vote lfischl.

That’s quite rude of you

I feel like bona is scum just because of the volume of shitposting he has done, I haven’t played in a while, does he do this as scum?

He does it whatever.

Tell me why I shouldn't vote you. One sentence.

Phone VCA lol

Chaqa (2): ghug, bozotheclown
ghug (2): Kakarroto, celaph
damo666 (1): Chaqa
lfischl (1): damo666
celaph (1): rdrivera2005
heartthrob24909 (1): Bonatogether
bo_sox48 (1): BunnyGo

Currently nobody is set to die

bo, heartthrob, lfischl, and worcej need to vote

Deadline is at 6pm Central so just under 2 hours. I shouldn’t have to extend this one due to work etc (and promise not to needlessly fuck with deadlines).

Oh shoot never voted,I'm just going to ##vote bo until he shows up?

##vote Kak
I'm leaning the way of the survey is a good thing in the interest of general info gain even if earlier I wasn't sure exactly how we'd use the info

Don't like this vote at all, yeah the info could be useful but the points against it are definitely solid

Don't like this vote at all, yeah the info could be useful but the points against it are definitely solid

i'd like if you voted :)))

Personally not a fan of any of the wagon, would support a ##heart vote though

Personally not a fan of any of the wagon, would support a ##heart vote though

not a valid vote

also -

Personally not a fan of any of the wagon, would support a ##heart vote though

vote celaph with me?

##vote hea
Not a fan of that one

give details

give posts

explain why the posts are towny to me

seconded

Didn't pet anyone because when I first read it I thought it was a one time ability.

moreso cel's response to the survey than the posts, I doubt that any scum would play a lie like that, feel like you can get caught way too easily for that

Didn't read the celaph post correctly sorry, but idk its been a while since I've played, so I would understand people not remembering that I have been hella inactive before

fischy that doesn't make any sense. being inactive is like the lfischl stereotype and you said it yourself - any townie would know that that's NAI - so celaph painting that as scummy is very interesting. you don't push back on that at all?

you also don't explain your heart scumread or where it comes from at all. i'm very interested and i'd love to hear about it

For heart, I almost feel like we are getting played, like the basic noob shows up and everyone is like "oh if he is more experienced he would do this" and then he's actually scum. Just my thoughts

[Kakarroto]

lfischl quotes:

Obviously not a lot to go on, NOT gonna vote for the following today

Bozo - too useful if town
Chaqa - because he has bleated
damo - because that would be silly
ghug - see bozo
heartthrob - NEW
Kak - too noisy to be scum
rdr - sheepclaim

So am left with

Bona
Bo
Bunny
celaph
lfischl
worcej

Of these worcej gets a pass as he hasn't spoken yet and celaph will give himself away if scum.

Bo a la worcej, Bona already under pressure. Leaves Bunny or fish.

I'll ##vote lfischl.

That’s quite rude of you

I feel like bona is scum just because of the volume of shitposting he has done, I haven’t played in a while, does he do this as scum?

Obviously not a lot to go on, NOT gonna vote for the following today

Bozo - too useful if town
Chaqa - because he has bleated
damo - because that would be silly
ghug - see bozo
heartthrob - NEW
Kak - too noisy to be scum
rdr - sheepclaim

So am left with

Bona
Bo
Bunny
celaph
lfischl
worcej

Of these worcej gets a pass as he hasn't spoken yet and celaph will give himself away if scum.

Bo a la worcej, Bona already under pressure. Leaves Bunny or fish.

I'll ##vote lfischl.

That’s quite rude of you

I feel like bona is scum just because of the volume of shitposting he has done, I haven’t played in a while, does he do this as scum?

He does it whatever.

Tell me why I shouldn't vote you. One sentence.

Phone VCA lol

Chaqa (2): ghug, bozotheclown
ghug (2): Kakarroto, celaph
damo666 (1): Chaqa
lfischl (1): damo666
celaph (1): rdrivera2005
heartthrob24909 (1): Bonatogether
bo_sox48 (1): BunnyGo

Currently nobody is set to die

bo, heartthrob, lfischl, and worcej need to vote

Deadline is at 6pm Central so just under 2 hours. I shouldn’t have to extend this one due to work etc (and promise not to needlessly fuck with deadlines).

Oh shoot never voted,I'm just going to ##vote bo until he shows up?

##vote Kak
I'm leaning the way of the survey is a good thing in the interest of general info gain even if earlier I wasn't sure exactly how we'd use the info

Don't like this vote at all, yeah the info could be useful but the points against it are definitely solid

Don't like this vote at all, yeah the info could be useful but the points against it are definitely solid

i'd like if you voted :)))

Personally not a fan of any of the wagon, would support a ##heart vote though

Personally not a fan of any of the wagon, would support a ##heart vote though

not a valid vote

also -

Personally not a fan of any of the wagon, would support a ##heart vote though

vote celaph with me?

##vote hea
Not a fan of that one

give details

give posts

explain why the posts are towny to me

seconded

Didn't pet anyone because when I first read it I thought it was a one time ability.

moreso cel's response to the survey than the posts, I doubt that any scum would play a lie like that, feel like you can get caught way too easily for that

Didn't read the celaph post correctly sorry, but idk its been a while since I've played, so I would understand people not remembering that I have been hella inactive before

fischy that doesn't make any sense. being inactive is like the lfischl stereotype and you said it yourself - any townie would know that that's NAI - so celaph painting that as scummy is very interesting. you don't push back on that at all?

you also don't explain your heart scumread or where it comes from at all. i'm very interested and i'd love to hear about it

For heart, I almost feel like we are getting played, like the basic noob shows up and everyone is like "oh if he is more experienced he would do this" and then he's actually scum. Just my thoughts

[Kakarroto]

bozo quotes:

[...](cut because it got way too big, look it up via link)

The point of the survey from my perspective was to force the mafia to fabricate a response, and to provide information to the dog, which in the best case scenario could catch a scum. However, that required full participation by town, which obviously has not happened.

I can see the information for the dog, but I don't think that had high priority, at least not as high as keeping him safe for later since the ability gets stronger the less people are around.

Also I think such a survey would never have full participation. What are your thought on the people who didn't give you a pet information, celaph, bona, RD and myself?

(also I need to speed up, I'm slow in catching up)

damo did not response either. From my perspective, there would be 1.5 mafia in that group by random chance, so there is probably 1-2 mafia in the group, which is not helpful. At this point I would say the responses from damo and celaph seem most likely to be from mafia avoiding the question.

D1 EOD, lfischl voted for Chaqa when the vote was tied at 3 to put Chaqa in the lead. Then, damo voted for Chaqa when he likely thought the vote was tied at 3 and would put Chaqa in the lead, as his vote came shortly after celaph's vote. If either were bussing Chaqa, they waited until they would maximize their bussing credit.

Maybe they took Chaqa's first post as a signal to bus him:

So uh I forgot this game was a thing, just logged in and also I guess I need to set up the bot in the morning, but I'm going to bed and also feel free to day 1 me

That was also the post that made me vote for Chaqa D1, as it seemed unlikely Chaqa forgot about the existence of this game considering he confirmed participation after the game filled and not long before it started. Also, I thought the D1 thing was a potential scum ploy, although I did not consider at the time that it could be a signal to bus him.

A Chaqa, damo, lfischl scum team is not unreasonable, with Chaqa's unexplained D1 damo vote, Chaqa's unexplained lfischl town read, and damo's suggestion of a Chaqa information DK with little effort to make it happen.

Chaqa starting my wagon D2 and then leaving it when I was in the lead seems like a typical scum motivated move, giving him options at EOD. His move back to my wagon at EOD with celaph off wagon seems questionable as well.

I am OK with Chaqa or damo today, it still seems to me like they have been bussing each other.

##VOTE damo

[Kakarroto]

You really think that I as third man would urge an info flip on Chaqa with the reasoning he is co-aligned with lfischl? Come on!

I still maintain Chaqa is the best flip tomorrow (and if he slips scum Bozo is quasi clear).

This should be D3 D4 D5 strategy

D3 kill Chaqa, if scum kill lfischl D4, if town kill Bozo D4. If D4 does not result is a scum flip kill me D5 (if I'm here).

please give your honest opinion to the blue coloured text. How fortunate is it that the second last mafia left such a blueprint for the next days, involving the three now most likely to survive to the last 3?

Fortunate for who? If lfischl is the last mafia, this "strategy" would have resulted in 2 mis-kills.

don't you see that as fortunate for us that mafia wanted to go that way? Looks to me like a try to get a 2 for 1 trade.

or is it not fortunate and was something else, a try to mislead town?

[Kakarroto]

I've tried to collect the reactions (see former posts) for damo, heartthrob, lfischl and bozo to each other as their overall thoughts for the first 60 pages. I think this area is much more fruitful to investigate since it's less likely to be contaminied by mafia manipulation, especially between reads for bozo and lfischl.

-) damo:
he deems bozo too useful for town to consider D1, rankes heartthrob as NEW and goes on, puts lfischl in the "left with" category. Votes lfischl.
says chaqa was saved. Connects lfischl to chaqa.
thinks survey wasn't malicious and says votes on him are misplaced
townreads RD and me, says chaqa and fish are probably same alignment
reacts to celaph not tying by asking why he didn't save himself. Says bozo is more likely mafia than PR
readlist: puts chaqa and lfischl at 50% mafia likelyhood. puts bozo at 40% likelyhood with bona. buts heartthrob at 37.5% likelyhood to be mafia alongside worcej.

-) heartthrob:
thinks survey is a good thing for general info even though he isn't sure how to use it
says he votes against bozo not for me (by voting for me, so idk what he really wanted to say) when asked
when asked his 4 maf pool, he says either chaqa or damo but not both, then worcej, considers bozo even when he trusts the survey but because of the celaph vote (points out he himself has voted for celaph but that doesn't seem to count for heartthrob), then worcej, then mentions bo because he is aggressive but prob not mafia and finally says that leaves lfischl and me

-) lfischl:
answers/comments damo's vote for him with "that's quite rude of you" (which is answered by damo with "Tell me why I shouldn'T vote you. One sentence." - I didn't find the answer and both seem to forget about it)
while quoting a VC where damo still votes him, he notices he hadn't voted and votes bo
dislikes heartthrobs vote for me, says there are good points for people being against the survey
after bona prods him to vote, lfischl votes heartthrob (although it doesn't count since he misplaces heart and vote)
bona tells him this, prods him to vote for celaph, then votes 'hea' and says he isn't a fan of the celaph vote
bona asks lfischl again, this time about his read about heart, answers it that he feels like being tricked with the new player act

-) bozo:
mentions damo and celaph for being most likely to avoid the question
bozo mentions both lfischl and damo who voted chaqa D1 and theorized that if they were mafia, they maximized bussing credit. Mentions chaqas first post as a 'hint' for bussing him. Goes a little into depth explaining why he thought this.
theorizes a chaqa-damo-lfischl team. mentions chaqas unexplained read of lfischl for town and damo's suggestion for a chaqa flip.
thinks chaqa starting and then leaving his wagon D2 looked like mafia motivated.
on D3 he is ok with chaqa or damo for the flip, thinks they have been bussing each other. Votes damo.


thoughts:

reading damo its like he wanted to connect lfischl to chaqa. his vote order (D3 chaqa, if mafia D4 lfischl, if town D4 bozo, if no mafia D5 himself) reads to me like he wanted to trade 2 for 1, since we know now chaqa and lfischl can't be both mafia and he wouldn't put the godfather first here, right? That said, maybe damo is crafty enough to leave such a bomb for the endgame. Hmm. Then again, I think it's more likely he puts one mafia in the 50% than in the 40% after he put heartthob in the 37.5%

I thought we could get some clearer information by reading heartthrob, but I don't see a good sense in it. Could read his mentions in either direction, trying to get all three mafs into the reads or getting a town voted out. Look at it and judge for yourself.

lfischl: commenting damo's vote for him strikes me as strange; especially, when there was a follow up with 'give me one sentence why not'. I was a bit terrified when I read his read about heartthrob, that seems a bit too precise at that stage of the game, no? Or maybe I'm too sensitive. The ##heart was also something I find suspicious now since he voted correctly before.

I thought I'd had more trouble looking at bozo objectively, but in retrospect and leaving out the hard front about the survey, bozo looks surprisingly more towny. His read of damo before was also much more doubtful, I guess damo's vote shuffle (where he put worcej D1 afterwards) was the major point for bozo to change his view for damo. That makes his thoughts and reasons for chaqa being on a team with damo more compelling though. I've left chaqa out of this investigation, because, well I doubt he breaks his chipotle thing here. Although he said he thought RD's vanilla tell was just a joke, so maybe he thinks that of his aswell ... well if I'm the target tonight, that's not my decision anymore and if I'm alive and chaqa was the target (which I think is the lesser plausible option for like 60:40 or so but could still be), then I don't need to think about it anyway. So in case we both live tomorrow, I can reinvestigate that. Other than that, if I'm the target and you don't trust chaqa, ask him about the RD joke and how he sees his tell and also, just to be sure, ask him to make the chipotle vow with his own words and not just quote it with 'yes'. Or not and try to find out for yourself. Hmm, to be fair, thinking about it made me waver a bit about my read of him. But lets see what the night brings.


so, to put it all together, I'm currently at about 25%-74%-1% for bozo-lfischl-chaqa. But, I might've overlooked something so don't just take my word and roll with it, use your own brain and just use my thoughts as help. After all, two days before I was very convinced bozo's reactions to my survey behaviour were mafia. I mean, still could be true, but I don't know. I just try to extrapolate information and we all know, mafia tries to contaminate these.

Oh right, tonight I'm going to pet worcej, just to be sure. First time on N3 I found the dog, second time on N4 he died. Third times the charm to get him resurrected? I'll try my best.

Good luck. See you on the other side. And may the Fluff be with wool.
(and I swear, if I flip Squirrel, I'll eat Eden's nut)
(not that nut you fool)
(no, also not that other nut, geez)

And if we don't hear from each other before it happens, good slide and a Happy New Year! (Since I have only 23 hours left in this year.)

[Kakarroto]

https://i.imgur.com/h44H0za.png

phase has ended, I think?

[President Eden]

night has ended, please hold

[President Eden]

(and I swear, if I flip Squirrel, I'll eat Eden's nut)
(not that nut you fool)
(no, also not that other nut, geez)

thankfully for me, he was not the squirrel

KAKARROTO has DIED. He was a SHEEP

Final day!

[Chaqa]

Shit.

I was really hoping Kak would have to be the one to make the choice.

[Chaqa]

Feel free to vote/end for each other. I'm going to think about this for awhile and then make my choice.

[Chaqa]

Thank you kak for compiling the relevant posts.

o7

[Chaqa]

Obviously not a lot to go on, NOT gonna vote for the following today

Bozo - too useful if town
Chaqa - because he has bleated
damo - because that would be silly
ghug - see bozo
heartthrob - NEW
Kak - too noisy to be scum
rdr - sheepclaim

So am left with

Bona
Bo
Bunny
celaph
lfischl
worcej

Of these worcej gets a pass as he hasn't spoken yet and celaph will give himself away if scum.

Bo a la worcej, Bona already under pressure. Leaves Bunny or fish.

I'll ##vote lfischl.

My thinking here is.. he says Bozo is too useful as town. Ghug also. But then ghug dies N1. So, why doesn't Bozo die N2?

[Chaqa]

With only one mis-kill left, I think it would be a good idea to have everyone go on record with their scum pool, up to 4:

bozo: Bonatogether, Chaqa, damo, Kakarroto
Chaqa: bo_sox, bozo, damo, worcej

1. Chaqa or damo but not both, because of this feud
2. worcej, because i have a foggier idea of where they stand compared to some others like bona which i'm more confident about being town
3. Even though I place trust in bozotheclown and his survey i could be swayed on him bc of how the celaph vote turned out, even though i voted for celaph too.
4. bo_sox strikes me as aggressive but not necessarily mafia, lol.
5. I think that leaves Kak and lfisch

i'm gonna brainstorm this Q to try and come up with a solid guess of 4 but that's where my head is at in general

This is interesting, because here heart has listed his scum pool as:
1. damo OR Chaqa
2. worcej
3. Bozo
4. Maybe bo?

When this is transcribed by Bozo, it comes out as "damo, Chaqa, worcej"...

I wonder, did Bozo do this on purpose to not have heart list BOTH his teammates (damo+Bozo) in here? Or was it an accident?

[Chaqa]

OK, here's where I'm at.

On Day 1, at EOD, Lfischl had been voting for me. At the last moment, he switched from me to Bunny, saving me and dooming Bunny. Now, for a while people were linking him to me via that, but now we know that we aren't mafia together.

So here's my thinking... I was voting Damo all day. Lfischl could stay on me, receive no flak, and get me out of there, removing the primary pressure on Damo. But he switched to Bunny.

I don't feel like he does that if they're teammates.