M1023: Mafarmia [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

[lfischl]

The delay in damo and lfischl getting on each other's wagon does make it seem like they are the scum pair. I still would prefer lfischl today because he seems to be already pushing me and damo as mafia in preparation of damo flipping scum and a D6 with you and me.

When have I been pushing you chaqa?

I don't understand what you mean about Chaqa. I was saying your post when you switched you vote from me to damo seemed to indicate you think the scum team is me and damo, which explains your vote switch, but also prepares you to vote for me D6 if you and damo are mafia.

shoot I thought that was a chaqa post

[bozotheclown]

When have I been pushing you chaqa?

I don't understand what you mean about Chaqa. I was saying your post when you switched you vote from me to damo seemed to indicate you think the scum team is me and damo, which explains your vote switch, but also prepares you to vote for me D6 if you and damo are mafia.

shoot I thought that was a chaqa post

That makes more sense.

[Chaqa]

The delay in damo and lfischl getting on each other's wagon does make it seem like they are the scum pair. I still would prefer lfischl today because he seems to be already pushing me and damo as mafia in preparation of damo flipping scum and a D6 with you and me.

I see Damo as the common thread between the two scum pairs. If he flips Godfather then it clears me. I'm not really looking to vote Lfischl today.

OK, if you are town, then I think we are in the same position, you think it is damo and lfischl or damo and me, and I think it is lfischl and damo or lfischl and you. Flipping the GF today clears you, but does not keep you from mis-killing me D6.

Well, let's hope we do find the GF today and I get killed tonight then.

[bozotheclown]

The voting D5 makes a damo/lfischl mafia team look more likely, and since the votes seem to be locked in, I hope that is the case.

Since a tie vote today would result in a mafia win, I am moving my vote to damo to make sure the mafia can't win with a last minute vote change to tie the vote.

##VOTE damo

[damo666]

Problems with pet results for the three possible pairings

Kak Chaqa - Chaqa's bozo N1 declaration, why not say heart, Kak or ghug?
lfischl Chaqa - as above

Kak lfischl - no problems

I now conclude that Kak lfischl are the scumpair.

Will leave my vote on Kak but can move to lfischl if necessary.

You seem to be ignoring the "problem" that heartthrob said he scanned you N1.

True, but that is common to them all.

[damo666]

##vote damo

##end

[Kakarroto]

, but declared

This reads to me like scum!Bozo realizing he can't get a miskill on Kak today and flipping to backup on Lfischl.

Of course you would say that if you are scum with lfischl.

However, in case you are town, you and lfischl not only followed Kakarroto's vote for me, but declared your certainty that Kakarroto is town, and you tried to hammer me, so I do not see much scum motivation in Kakarroto switching his vote to damo when he did, because if he had just voted end, lfischl would probably have followed and the game would be over. So, since you said you think damo/lfischl is a possible scum team, we can DK lfischl, and maybe he will flip GF and clear you.

what was the "- but declared" before the quote about? I guess you deleted something you typed up before to react to chaqa?

[Kakarroto]

revistited possible teams:
[...]

I finally had time to look at this more carefully. One thing I noticed is that you do not seem to be taking into consideration the fact that the mafia received a scan result of someone N1, so in the cases were you list 2 or 3 guesses N1, one of those likely would have been someone they knew was not the doctor as a result of the mafia scan, and therefore not a guess.

that's true, that would reduce the number of guesses by 1 for a lot of the teams.

for those who matter, the lfischl-chaqa-heartthrob would have 2 guesses
damo-lfischl-heartthrob would have 0 guesses
bozo-damo-heartthrob would stay at 0 guesses

wished I had received critique like that earlier, thanks

[bozotheclown]

, but declared

This reads to me like scum!Bozo realizing he can't get a miskill on Kak today and flipping to backup on Lfischl.

Of course you would say that if you are scum with lfischl.

However, in case you are town, you and lfischl not only followed Kakarroto's vote for me, but declared your certainty that Kakarroto is town, and you tried to hammer me, so I do not see much scum motivation in Kakarroto switching his vote to damo when he did, because if he had just voted end, lfischl would probably have followed and the game would be over. So, since you said you think damo/lfischl is a possible scum team, we can DK lfischl, and maybe he will flip GF and clear you.

what was the "- but declared" before the quote about? I guess you deleted something you typed up before to react to chaqa?

Somehow I mad a mistake copying, it is part of the message.

[Kakarroto]

[...]

With chaqa/lfischl, all 3 mafia would have responded to the survey early reporting town scans, but one of those could have been the real scan. Although 2 mafia picking an unknown town for their scan report does not seem like the best way for the mafia to go, I would not rule it out.

With damo/lfischl, heartthrob would have responded first naming teammate damo, then lfischl naming you, which could have been the real scan, and then damo refusing to give a result. Then the mafia would have scanned worcej N2, with damo and lfischl reporting scans of worcej. I agree that damo/lfischl fits better strictly on the dog scan survey results.

As for damo and I as mafia, besides knowing I am town, we would have had to give the N1 NK and a mafia teammate as our N1 scan results, with the third refusing to give a result, therefore not using our real scan result.

that sounds quite compelling and logical

and yeah, I haven't ruled out the chaqa/lfischl team, just chaqa would have to sacrifice his tell for that and I haven't gotten enough good reasons from damo and you until now for me to consider it more than 1% probable.

[Kakarroto]

[...]

I did not want to point it out at the time, but what rdrivera said about the mafia avoiding faking a claim was one of the potential benefits of the survey, so that it could be used later the way I think you are using it. When I try to do the same thing, you not giving your scan results opens up more possibilities, so, assuming you are town, I hope you see what I meant by town players like rdrivera not participating making the survey less useful.

I never doubted that the survey could be useful, my stand point was that it would hurt town more by revealing our strongest PR.

I suggest we wait for until the game to evaluate it with everyone, maybe I was wrong.

[Kakarroto]

I haven't used the bot in about my last ten games and don't plan to use it in this or the next ones. I was politely asking Eden to give us a official one with which I can work.

Why don't you use the bot?

It feels like I get to understand the game better when I'm not using it, picking out posts without context can get you onto a wrong trail. Also, I'm less inclined to be influenced by post volume/frequency/... which, I think, was a huge factor for me for judging people's alignment before, specially on early days.

[Kakarroto]

, but declared

Of course you would say that if you are scum with lfischl.

However, in case you are town, you and lfischl not only followed Kakarroto's vote for me, but declared your certainty that Kakarroto is town, and you tried to hammer me, so I do not see much scum motivation in Kakarroto switching his vote to damo when he did, because if he had just voted end, lfischl would probably have followed and the game would be over. So, since you said you think damo/lfischl is a possible scum team, we can DK lfischl, and maybe he will flip GF and clear you.

what was the "- but declared" before the quote about? I guess you deleted something you typed up before to react to chaqa?

Somehow I mad a mistake copying, it is part of the message.

ah, there, I see ... hmm ... no, I should just see it as NAI, there should be enough data to think about alignment without it.

[Kakarroto]

##vote damo

##end

As far as I know, everyone is voting damo now and we have two end votes, right?

With damo's behaviour today, I'm struggling to see how the lfischl-chaqa team has a higher probability than any team with damo on it, thus making damo absolutely the correct choice today.

If damo is town, I would've expected a much more intense fight from him. Well maybe I'm wrong but that's what I think.

Now, the open question is, do we want to end to see the result? I don't think we give mafia too much of an advantage to ending it a few hours early. But I've been known to overlook a few details sometimes so what do you all think about that?

[Chaqa]

##vote damo

##end

As far as I know, everyone is voting damo now and we have two end votes, right?

With damo's behaviour today, I'm struggling to see how the lfischl-chaqa team has a higher probability than any team with damo on it, thus making damo absolutely the correct choice today.

If damo is town, I would've expected a much more intense fight from him. Well maybe I'm wrong but that's what I think.

Now, the open question is, do we want to end to see the result? I don't think we give mafia too much of an advantage to ending it a few hours early. But I've been known to overlook a few details sometimes so what do you all think about that?

Pls hammer

[Kakarroto]

guess it looks like this now:

damo666 (5) - Kakarroto, Chaqa*, lfischl, bozotheclown, damo666*


if damo is town, he has given up anyway. If we are wrong, the outcome wouldn't really change and we can stop worrying sooner.

Hmm ... Chaqa asking for hammer. Well, if he is mafia, GG. At least he sacrifices his tell in that case.

##end

If nothing happened to the vote count, Phase should end now.

[lfischl]

##vote damo

##end

##end

[President Eden]

day has ended early

[President Eden]

DAMO666 has DIED. He was the ALPHA WOLF

Night has begun. DM me if you're interested in hammering night

[Chaqa]

Last one is either Bozo or Lfischl.

I tend to think it's Bozo, but I'm not sure.