M1023: Mafarmia [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

[Kakarroto]

but the question for bozo still sounds good, what do you think of a damo + lfischl team (with heartthrob of course), is there any major think I've overlooked? Can it work? Why do you think yes/why do you think no?

[Kakarroto]

You have never once even considered I am town.

Unfortunately, I fear this means you may be town as well, and therefore we are doomed. Oh well.

the red one is untrue, I was considered it a few times, you just have to check our dialogue, to be frank, you telling me that is a bit of an insult since you judged me mafia just by resisting the survey.

So you don't think the mafia team damo+lfischl would work? I've put some thoughts out there, hope you had noticed, did you consider them? And where would I be wrong about that?

???

It was not for you…

yes, I noticed it already, did a crosspost. Big sorry, my mind mistook the name of the poster

[Chaqa]

All good.

Anyway guess we’re waiting for Fischl

[lfischl]

@lfischl are you going to stay voting bozo? Do you not like to change your vote to damo?

I would prefer bozo but I would be fine with it, not going to switch my vote just yet. Also deadline is tomorrow right

[Chaqa]

I think Day 2 provides the most room for analysis. Two realms:

#1: Bozo is scum
In this scenario, Bozo barely escaped the noose. His teammate heart voted with him to save him, but the last teammate either voted for him (which seems unlikely at this point in the game) or was Damo.

So I posit: if Bozo is scum, his teammate MUST be damo. The reverse is not necessarily true.

#2: Bozo is town
In this scenario, celaph was killed with only one mafia voting for him. In this case, mafia would not be caring about the outcome of this TvT day. This would fit with either Kak or Damo. Interestingly, Lfischl was voting for Heart before voting for Bozo.

I think I'm going to lock in my vote on Damo for today.

[bozotheclown]

but the question for bozo still sounds good, what do you think of a damo + lfischl team (with heartthrob of course), is there any major think I've overlooked? Can it work? Why do you think yes/why do you think no?

It is possible if the mafia did know worcej was the doctor. If the mafia scanned worcej N2 and received the result D3, they would have planned for the case where worcej was the doctor. I still think Chaqa pocketing you and trying to hammer me today makes him more likely.

[Chaqa]

For me:
Bozo-Lfischl or Bozo-Kak is unlikely due to D2 voting

I struggle in general to see Kak on a scumteam.

Leaves:
Bozo-Damo
Damo-Lfischl

As my two scum team possibilities.

[Chaqa]

@Bozo:
Are you 100% unwilling to vote for Damo?

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE Chaqa

If Kakarroto is mafia, town has already lost, so I am going to assume Chaqa and lfischl have been pocketing Kakarroto.

You have never once even considered I am town.

Unfortunately, I fear this means you may be town as well, and therefore we are doomed. Oh well.

That is not accurate, I even saved you from getting DKed D1 when you did not show up for EOD, but then you keep saying things like this that are not accurate and makes me think you must be mafia.

[bozotheclown]

@Bozo:
Are you 100% unwilling to vote for Damo?

I do not plan on voting for him today.

[Chaqa]

##VOTE Chaqa

If Kakarroto is mafia, town has already lost, so I am going to assume Chaqa and lfischl have been pocketing Kakarroto.

You have never once even considered I am town.

Unfortunately, I fear this means you may be town as well, and therefore we are doomed. Oh well.

That is not accurate, I even saved you from getting DKed D1 when you did not show up for EOD, but then you keep saying things like this that are not accurate and makes me think you must be mafia.

You voted for me most of Day 1 and then part of Day 2... hardly seems like town reading me. This is either dishonest or revionisist.

[bozotheclown]

You have never once even considered I am town.

Unfortunately, I fear this means you may be town as well, and therefore we are doomed. Oh well.

That is not accurate, I even saved you from getting DKed D1 when you did not show up for EOD, but then you keep saying things like this that are not accurate and makes me think you must be mafia.

You voted for me most of Day 1 and then part of Day 2... hardly seems like town reading me. This is either dishonest or revionisist.

I did not say I ever town read you, but that does not mean that I did not consider you could be town.

I never dismissed the possibility that the mafia had scanned worcej and were using it for town credit, but it did not seem very likely, and heartthrob flipping mafia seemed to reinforce that.

[bozotheclown]

didn't pet anyone again

I pet worcej

i would be fine with either a bozo or worcej vote

##vote worcej for competitiveness

I would be good with this as well, or heart

It is interesting, at least to me, that everyone I have in my scum pool are scum reading me. That probably means I am missing at least one scum, but I am not sure who that would be.

Maybe lfischl, who like Kakarroto, is holding their vote for late in D3.

Oh I’ve just been hella busy the last couple days, but my scum pool is something like bona worcej heart and then bozo or damo

Maybe lfischl, who like Kakarroto, is holding their vote for late in D3.

Oh I’ve just been hella busy the last couple days, but my scum pool is something like bona worcej heart and then bozo or damo

Shoot not worcej sorry heart bona bozo damo, In that order

In the last post, lfischl indicates he had a real scan of worcej, so I though the previous posts were the result of lfischl not paying attention. However, they may have just been a scum slip where lfischl forgot he was supposed to not be suspecting worcej.

I have come to the conclusion that lfischl is the best DK today, because if
Kakarroto was mafia, I think the game would already be over, and if Kakarroto is town, then the mafia did know worcej was the doctor.

##VOTE lfischl

[Chaqa]

This reads to me like scum!Bozo realizing he can't get a miskill on Kak today and flipping to backup on Lfischl.

[bozotheclown]

, but declared

This reads to me like scum!Bozo realizing he can't get a miskill on Kak today and flipping to backup on Lfischl.

Of course you would say that if you are scum with lfischl.

However, in case you are town, you and lfischl not only followed Kakarroto's vote for me, but declared your certainty that Kakarroto is town, and you tried to hammer me, so I do not see much scum motivation in Kakarroto switching his vote to damo when he did, because if he had just voted end, lfischl would probably have followed and the game would be over. So, since you said you think damo/lfischl is a possible scum team, we can DK lfischl, and maybe he will flip GF and clear you.

[Chaqa]

, but declared

This reads to me like scum!Bozo realizing he can't get a miskill on Kak today and flipping to backup on Lfischl.

Of course you would say that if you are scum with lfischl.

However, in case you are town, you and lfischl not only followed Kakarroto's vote for me, but declared your certainty that Kakarroto is town, and you tried to hammer me, so I do not see much scum motivation in Kakarroto switching his vote to damo when he did, because if he had just voted end, lfischl would probably have followed and the game would be over. So, since you said you think damo/lfischl is a possible scum team, we can DK lfischl, and maybe he will flip GF and clear you.

I agree it's a possible team, but you've presented good evidence previously why Lfischl is town. I'd prefer to get Damo first.

[bozotheclown]

, but declared

This reads to me like scum!Bozo realizing he can't get a miskill on Kak today and flipping to backup on Lfischl.

Of course you would say that if you are scum with lfischl.

However, in case you are town, you and lfischl not only followed Kakarroto's vote for me, but declared your certainty that Kakarroto is town, and you tried to hammer me, so I do not see much scum motivation in Kakarroto switching his vote to damo when he did, because if he had just voted end, lfischl would probably have followed and the game would be over. So, since you said you think damo/lfischl is a possible scum team, we can DK lfischl, and maybe he will flip GF and clear you.

I agree it's a possible team, but you've presented good evidence previously why Lfischl is town. I'd prefer to get Damo first.

The evidence for damo being town is the same as for lfischl being town, that they indicated their scan of worcej was real during D3. If the mafia scanned worcej N2, they both could have reported scans of worcej D3. I think lfischl looks suspicious for scum reading worcej early D3 before correcting himself. However, I find damo waiting until D3 to report a N1 scan of worcej somewhat suspicious also. If damo/lfischl is the scum team, the order does not matter, but I think lfischl is more likely to be mafia because I still think you could be mafia with lfischl. If damo/lfischl is the scum team, lfischl flipping GF would prove that from my perspective.

[bozotheclown]

revistited possible teams:

teams with one need for a guess:
chaqa-bozo-heartthrob
bozo-damo-heartthrob
damo-heartthrob-lfischl

teams with 2 guesses needed:
chaqa-damo-heartthrob
bozo-heartthrob-lfischl

teams with 3+ guesses needed:
chaqa-heartthrob-lfischl

noticable behaviour:
lfischl brought both chaqa and bozo in danger with his votes (D1 and D2 respectively) (I looked it up and noticed I'm totally wrong there, it was bo not chaqa D1, my notes even say chaqa plus lfischl have higher percentages, so what did I smoke thinking that for the past time?)
bozo and damo are very close and very similar with their thoughts since D3
heartthrob seemed to be a new player, said he only played once before
heartthrob voted for me D2 and D3 (might look like a bus, from my perspective it's not) (heartthrob voted only town - bo, ghug D1, me, celaph D2, me D3 - at least from the VC posted by Eden, as I said, I don't use the peterbot, but please check it out there, maybe you notice something there?)
chaqa and damo voted each other D1, damo continued this to D2 (at least that was correctly stored in my memory)
bozo was on the highest wagon on all final votes except when we got mafia.
damo was on the highest wagon on D3 and D4
lfischl was on the highest wagon on D1, D3 and D4 (D2 he voted bozo)
chaqa was never on the highest wagon except when we got mafia (D2 he also voted bozo)
chaqa declared lfischl locktown (got some criticism for it) (I think it was D2 or something like that)
bozo questioned lfischl about his reads D2 after lfischl made the 'shoot not worcej' post (which made me notice worcej was probably dog)
chaqa affirmed my questions about his chipotle vow (though he never phrased them himself, he just said 'Yes' to it ... which makes me think he is town but not 100% lock him in)
damo told his pets only on D3 after some people told their pets so in case he is mafia he was able to fudge them in his favour

things that I noticed:
lfischl is maybe not mafia with bozo
chaqa is probably not mafia with bozo
damo is probably not mafia with chaqa
chaqa and lfischl have a high combability being mafia together
damo and bozo have a high combability being mafia together

team evaluation
chaqa-heartthrob-lfischl (3 guesses)
for N1 all three told three different names, none of them each other (bozo, damo, me). for N2 they told the N2 mafia target, the dog and one from the day before (RD, me, worcej)
they would've know worcej was dog; in that case, they decided to pressure with two.

bozo-heartthrob-lfischl (2 guesses)
N1 they chose the N1 target and twice not of the group (ghug, damo, me). for N2 they told having scanned the dog twice and a repeat from N1 (worcej x2, me)
as said, since lfischl endangered bozo, the chance of them being mafia together is lower. if lfischl is mafia he doesn't seem to have bussed again except D4 where it would be ludicrous not to follow worcej

chaqa-damo-heartthrob (1-2 guesses)
N1 they chose the dog and one not from the group and one from the group (bozo, worcej*, damo). for N2 they scanned the N2 target, one from yesterday and one not from the group (RD, bozo*, me). *damo would've been able to fudge the reads.
this however makes little sense here since damo had no need to hide the worcej scan on N2. If mafia scanned worcej N1 they would've targeted him N2. It might've been a ploy to lure town off of such a trail to not connect the scan with the next night target, but they let worcej live until N4 which doesn't fit since at the time, worcej was very negatively towards all three and came around damo only recently.
on top of it, from behaviour, chaqa and damo are probably not mafia so this team is extremely unlikely.

chaqa-bozo-heartthrob (1 guess)
N1 they chose 1x in group, N1 target, 1x out of group (bozo, ghug, damo). N2 they chose N2 target, dog, 1x out of group (RD, worcej, me)
choosing twice the night target from mafia seems kinda unlikely, especially since they would have the information who is dog. This would've make them look more suspicious than needed and I think both bozo and chaqa would've known that.
on top of that, from behaviour, chaqa is unlikely mafia partner with bozo

bozo-damo-heartthrob (0 guesses)
N1 they chose N1 target, dog*, inside of group. (ghug, worcej*, damo). N2 they chose dog, inside of group* and outside of group (worcej, bozo*, me). *damo would've been able to fudge his reads.
if mafia scanned worcej N2, damo fudging his to look like he scanned the dog N1 would make totally sense. They could also have arranged it previously to make the new player pressure worcej. bozo choosing the N1 target might've been a gamble that it might look suspicious, but then, which mafia would target ghug N1 anyway, right?
bozo and damo also have a good compability together, this team just makes so much sense.

damo-heartthrob-lfischl (1 guess)
N1 they chose the dog*, inside the group and outside the group (worcej*, damo, me). N2 they chose outside the group*, repeat from N1 but outside the group and the dog (bozo, me, worcej). *damo would've been able to fudge his reads.
In this scenario, damo telling his reads later at D3 could also benefit mafia. This team could actually work pretty well. I don't see a special harmony, but it is a team that is quite possible.

Maybe I'm wrong about bozo. Maybe damo is the better vote today ... it irks me that I've overlooked that there is a second 0 guesses team too.

I need to look at it again and think. If someone notices a logic mistake or mistake in general about this all, please don't hesitate to mention it.

I finally had time to look at this more carefully. One thing I noticed is that you do not seem to be taking into consideration the fact that the mafia received a scan result of someone N1, so in the cases were you list 2 or 3 guesses N1, one of those likely would have been someone they knew was not the doctor as a result of the mafia scan, and therefore not a guess.

[bozotheclown]

I've had an eat, tried to soft reset my mind and look at my former post. With that I think there can only be 3 teams that are logically possible:

chaqa-heartthrob-lfischl
bozo-damo-heartthrob
damo-heartthrob-lfischl

I think the chaqa lfischl is still possible, but for that there has to go so much in their favour and chaqa has to sacrifice his tell.

@damo @bozo I want to give you a bit of time to convince me that we actually have this maf team, but that has to be a gigantic good argument with detailed analysis to believe you. To be frank, I give this team a 1% chance to be true, just that little doubt I have in myself let me even consider it a possibility.

comparing the two other teams, I think there is like a 60:40 chance; bozo+damo more possible than bozo+lfischl

Therefore, we should vote today damo, since he is part of both teams

##vote damo

I urge you to change your vote to damo since that should be the best way for town to get to the truth

With chaqa/lfischl, all 3 mafia would have responded to the survey early reporting town scans, but one of those could have been the real scan. Although 2 mafia picking an unknown town for their scan report does not seem like the best way for the mafia to go, I would not rule it out.

With damo/lfischl, heartthrob would have responded first naming teammate damo, then lfischl naming you, which could have been the real scan, and then damo refusing to give a result. Then the mafia would have scanned worcej N2, with damo and lfischl reporting scans of worcej. I agree that damo/lfischl fits better strictly on the dog scan survey results.

As for damo and I as mafia, besides knowing I am town, we would have had to give the N1 NK and a mafia teammate as our N1 scan results, with the third refusing to give a result, therefore not using our real scan result.

[bozotheclown]

I've had an eat, tried to soft reset my mind and look at my former post. With that I think there can only be 3 teams that are logically possible:

chaqa-heartthrob-lfischl
bozo-damo-heartthrob
damo-heartthrob-lfischl

I think the chaqa lfischl is still possible, but for that there has to go so much in their favour and chaqa has to sacrifice his tell.

@damo @bozo I want to give you a bit of time to convince me that we actually have this maf team, but that has to be a gigantic good argument with detailed analysis to believe you. To be frank, I give this team a 1% chance to be true, just that little doubt I have in myself let me even consider it a possibility.

comparing the two other teams, I think there is like a 60:40 chance; bozo+damo more possible than bozo+lfischl

Therefore, we should vote today damo, since he is part of both teams

##vote damo

I urge you to change your vote to damo since that should be the best way for town to get to the truth

it gives info on who they think is likely to be PR

And why are you putting so much value in this? To me, it’s a red herring and the value comes in that town can signal the dog while also forcing scum to put their neck out with fake claims for pets

Only an incredible stupid scum will fake a claim. They can claim a scan on Ghug. They can claim they didn't plwant to pet. They can claim they forget to pet. They can claim the real scum pet if they missed. They can claim a pet on another scum. And there probably many other options.

Meanwhile townies are giving info to scum about who they think are PRs.
And two people already also claimed the result, which if they are town and not tryng to confuse scum just make the pool smaller for scum.

I did not want to point it out at the time, but what rdrivera said about the mafia avoiding faking a claim was one of the potential benefits of the survey, so that it could be used later the way I think you are using it. When I try to do the same thing, you not giving your scan results opens up more possibilities, so, assuming you are town, I hope you see what I meant by town players like rdrivera not participating making the survey less useful.