M1023: Mafarmia [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

[damo666]

##vote Kak

[Chaqa]

This was going to be for the God chat, but it's fine to go here

My thinking is basically, there's no Final 3 where Bozo or Damo votes *with* me, so if either of them is town, we've lost already.

Therefore, I have to trust in my town read on Kak and Fischl.

It doesn't feel great tbh.

[Kakarroto]

[...]
I think we have to go with one of bozo or damo here, leaning bozo currently but not fully decided

Do you not understand why damo and I am town based on demonstrating our scans of worcej were real?

so you're saying mafia wouldn't have the ability to act like town if they'd scan the dog? Or to fudge their scans if they reveal their targets on a later date?

If you say you are town because you defended worcej, you have to include myself there where I noticed during the day worcej was either scanned or (at the time it was still a possibility) that worcej was mafia that got protected (though that would've included one town that fudged their scan on worcej so I disregarded that for the moment).

[...]
I would consider chaqa, I won’t vote kak, he is just objectively town

If you are not willing to vote for Kakarroto D5 or D6, the mafia will win, because Kakarroto is mafia. I know he has done very well as mafia, but damo and I are town. The mafia only have one dog scan between them, so if damo or I were mafia, all the mafia would have known worcej was the doctor, and
heartthrob was clearly surprised by worcej's claim D3.

Show me where I was surprised about worcej's claim D3: you will not find it because you could've deducted it like me that worcej was dog. So that reaction isn't a tell. It could've been very well the plan to have heartthrob push worcej more to bring him to claim while the other members try to protect him during the day. Mafia didn't had to remove worcej D3, they could wait, in fact, they even waited for one more night. Worcej tunneling on heartthrob most likely wasn't their desired outcome but they proably wanted to get me removed. Anyway, it's another example where you have a line of thinking (that is wrong, which is fine, people can be wrong) but you don't have the same line of thinking for others. It looks like you bend your logic to fit people differently and THAT is what I pointed out for days on days what makes you look like mafia.

to be fair I saw a similar way of thinking in worcej so until I noticed he's the dog, I was pretty sure he was mafia; so if you are town, you don't have the same luxury as worcej and just magically clear you, you have to act on that, and even with doubt in my mind I can't see much town in you

[...]

Did you not consider that it might be a decent play to act like you are surprised when you know as mafia?

I did not mean how heartthrob acted, it was that he was unprepared for worcej to claim doctor.

go back, look at all the reactions, write them down, post them here again. I'm sure your theory will fall down when faced to the actual data.

[Kakarroto]

[...]
Why have you excluded Bozo/lfischl as heart's partners? Not that I think it is for one minute but why?

I've taken the teams from the prior post I made where I tried to analyse and removed all teams which didn't include heartthrob, see here the source(follow the link, it was from my EoN post):

[...]
possible teams:
[...]

looking back, I clearly have missed that team to include. I'm trying to amend it now. Thanks for noticing that.

bozo-heartthrob-lfischl
this team would've had 2 guesses N1 (with heartthrob putting damo and lfischl putting me as being petted)
bozo and lfischl both say they scanned worcej N2 and heartthrob me; since mafia would know that worcej would be dog it makes no difference to put someone else and playing like 'I have no clue'. That might've been their plan from the start and after some codeword or some sign they could've just gone with that plan.
mafia putting twice worcej in their N2 scan is not something I'd expect from them to do on a first thought. It could have been a plan of theirs however with a "2 protecc, 1 attacc" strategy.

Maybe I should revisit the other teams too.

[Kakarroto]

meanwhile, 'enjoy' an excerpt of my thoughts I had, snapshotted during different times yesterday and today:

where I'm at(written yesterday shortly after my post):
I don't think chaqa is mafia. I don't know so if the choice today is between him and me, I'd vote him since I know I'm town and I only think chaqa is and there is a minimal chance I'm wrong about it. Though I think either choice will lose town the game.
between bozo, damo and lfischl, I think lfischl is still more likely town than mafia. The thing worcej pointed out with lfischl's reaction 'not shoot worcej' post, which was the post that made me reconsider that worcej might be scanned dog and lfischl signalled it by that, has been in the back of my head and maybe it was something of a slip; in that case though it should be bozo who's his partner since he was like 'dude, is that post read of you real'. But lfischl's votes seem to contradict that scenario and lfischl is just town who either made a mistake or wanted to signal other towns.
yeah, I think the best choice today would be between bozo and damo.

thoughts when I was about to sleep (written today, since I went to sleep then but they should be about accurate): I'm a bit surprised that after that night lfischl and chaqa both stand this firm behind me, am I wrong? Does bona scream at me from god qt that I shouldn't take the info from the survey because it misleads me? Why am I still in this game if I'm this level of townread by 50% of survivors. First I thought mafia wants me to missvote out of the game, but after worcej was removed, am I just blended? Was worcej right about bozo and damo? Am I even any good in this game?

(written before I came back to the game) after I woke up, I was less emotional about it all. My doubt hysteria has vanished, though at least some of those doubts has some merits, I think, so best to think about all that more, we still have time to figure that all out.

[Kakarroto]

[...]
I don't understand the logic of a non worcej nk.From maf pov it would leave a keave a clear and remove a suspect this doubly narrowing the pool. It seems to me you are trying to distance yourself from the nk.

worcej was dead set on getting me voted out today. Since I know I am town that would've been the end of the game. I'm not sure if worcej would've rethought the fact that he would be still alive but still going on to hammer me. I'm leaning more to that he wouldn't have, just came up with a theory that 'maf kak wouldn't target me since that would make him look more suspicious'. To be fair, I used a similar logic behind the one game I did good as mafia when I substituted. But that game and this one are pretty different anyway.

Anyway, I thought, since mafia just need one more missvote, that it would be possible they thought to use worcej's tunnel on me to win the game.

Also, your second sentence looks like copy pasted, like you constructed that post after longer thought where to put what. (then again you not reading over that again and correct it doesn't look like it, so idk) First thought is it's more maf behaviour to do so, but thinking about I've seen towns do that too so I guess it's just NAI.

Anyway, back to the teams and rewatch them.

[Kakarroto]

This was going to be for the God chat, but it's fine to go here

My thinking is basically, there's no Final 3 where Bozo or Damo votes *with* me, so if either of them is town, we've lost already.

Therefore, I have to trust in my town read on Kak and Fischl.

It doesn't feel great tbh.

what about the situation that you get the night action from mafia, so you aren't in the final three?

lets imagine bomo and dazo, one town one mafia, we vote the correct one and chaqa gets the night action (lets also imagine lfischl and me, one town, one mafia), surviver would be lfiska, bomo and kachl. Who would bomo vote then? I think it would be lopsided, but I don't think unwinnable.

Why does it sound you are so sure you would be in the final 3?

[Kakarroto]

ok, now really back to the revisit

[Chaqa]

This was going to be for the God chat, but it's fine to go here

My thinking is basically, there's no Final 3 where Bozo or Damo votes *with* me, so if either of them is town, we've lost already.

Therefore, I have to trust in my town read on Kak and Fischl.

It doesn't feel great tbh.

what about the situation that you get the night action from mafia, so you aren't in the final three?

lets imagine bomo and dazo, one town one mafia, we vote the correct one and chaqa gets the night action (lets also imagine lfischl and me, one town, one mafia), surviver would be lfiska, bomo and kachl. Who would bomo vote then? I think it would be lopsided, but I don't think unwinnable.

Why does it sound you are so sure you would be in the final 3?

The only way I get nightkilled I think is if we flip the Godfather today.

[Kakarroto]

revistited possible teams:

teams with one need for a guess:
chaqa-bozo-heartthrob
bozo-damo-heartthrob
damo-heartthrob-lfischl

teams with 2 guesses needed:
chaqa-damo-heartthrob
bozo-heartthrob-lfischl

teams with 3+ guesses needed:
chaqa-heartthrob-lfischl

noticable behaviour:
lfischl brought both chaqa and bozo in danger with his votes (D1 and D2 respectively) (I looked it up and noticed I'm totally wrong there, it was bo not chaqa D1, my notes even say chaqa plus lfischl have higher percentages, so what did I smoke thinking that for the past time?)
bozo and damo are very close and very similar with their thoughts since D3
heartthrob seemed to be a new player, said he only played once before
heartthrob voted for me D2 and D3 (might look like a bus, from my perspective it's not) (heartthrob voted only town - bo, ghug D1, me, celaph D2, me D3 - at least from the VC posted by Eden, as I said, I don't use the peterbot, but please check it out there, maybe you notice something there?)
chaqa and damo voted each other D1, damo continued this to D2 (at least that was correctly stored in my memory)
bozo was on the highest wagon on all final votes except when we got mafia.
damo was on the highest wagon on D3 and D4
lfischl was on the highest wagon on D1, D3 and D4 (D2 he voted bozo)
chaqa was never on the highest wagon except when we got mafia (D2 he also voted bozo)
chaqa declared lfischl locktown (got some criticism for it) (I think it was D2 or something like that)
bozo questioned lfischl about his reads D2 after lfischl made the 'shoot not worcej' post (which made me notice worcej was probably dog)
chaqa affirmed my questions about his chipotle vow (though he never phrased them himself, he just said 'Yes' to it ... which makes me think he is town but not 100% lock him in)
damo told his pets only on D3 after some people told their pets so in case he is mafia he was able to fudge them in his favour

things that I noticed:
lfischl is maybe not mafia with bozo
chaqa is probably not mafia with bozo
damo is probably not mafia with chaqa
chaqa and lfischl have a high combability being mafia together
damo and bozo have a high combability being mafia together

team evaluation
chaqa-heartthrob-lfischl (3 guesses)
for N1 all three told three different names, none of them each other (bozo, damo, me). for N2 they told the N2 mafia target, the dog and one from the day before (RD, me, worcej)
they would've know worcej was dog; in that case, they decided to pressure with two.

bozo-heartthrob-lfischl (2 guesses)
N1 they chose the N1 target and twice not of the group (ghug, damo, me). for N2 they told having scanned the dog twice and a repeat from N1 (worcej x2, me)
as said, since lfischl endangered bozo, the chance of them being mafia together is lower. if lfischl is mafia he doesn't seem to have bussed again except D4 where it would be ludicrous not to follow worcej

chaqa-damo-heartthrob (1-2 guesses)
N1 they chose the dog and one not from the group and one from the group (bozo, worcej*, damo). for N2 they scanned the N2 target, one from yesterday and one not from the group (RD, bozo*, me). *damo would've been able to fudge the reads.
this however makes little sense here since damo had no need to hide the worcej scan on N2. If mafia scanned worcej N1 they would've targeted him N2. It might've been a ploy to lure town off of such a trail to not connect the scan with the next night target, but they let worcej live until N4 which doesn't fit since at the time, worcej was very negatively towards all three and came around damo only recently.
on top of it, from behaviour, chaqa and damo are probably not mafia so this team is extremely unlikely.

chaqa-bozo-heartthrob (1 guess)
N1 they chose 1x in group, N1 target, 1x out of group (bozo, ghug, damo). N2 they chose N2 target, dog, 1x out of group (RD, worcej, me)
choosing twice the night target from mafia seems kinda unlikely, especially since they would have the information who is dog. This would've make them look more suspicious than needed and I think both bozo and chaqa would've known that.
on top of that, from behaviour, chaqa is unlikely mafia partner with bozo

bozo-damo-heartthrob (0 guesses)
N1 they chose N1 target, dog*, inside of group. (ghug, worcej*, damo). N2 they chose dog, inside of group* and outside of group (worcej, bozo*, me). *damo would've been able to fudge his reads.
if mafia scanned worcej N2, damo fudging his to look like he scanned the dog N1 would make totally sense. They could also have arranged it previously to make the new player pressure worcej. bozo choosing the N1 target might've been a gamble that it might look suspicious, but then, which mafia would target ghug N1 anyway, right?
bozo and damo also have a good compability together, this team just makes so much sense.

damo-heartthrob-lfischl (1 guess)
N1 they chose the dog*, inside the group and outside the group (worcej*, damo, me). N2 they chose outside the group*, repeat from N1 but outside the group and the dog (bozo, me, worcej). *damo would've been able to fudge his reads.
In this scenario, damo telling his reads later at D3 could also benefit mafia. This team could actually work pretty well. I don't see a special harmony, but it is a team that is quite possible.

Maybe I'm wrong about bozo. Maybe damo is the better vote today ... it irks me that I've overlooked that there is a second 0 guesses team too.

I need to look at it again and think. If someone notices a logic mistake or mistake in general about this all, please don't hesitate to mention it.

[Kakarroto]

This was going to be for the God chat, but it's fine to go here

My thinking is basically, there's no Final 3 where Bozo or Damo votes *with* me, so if either of them is town, we've lost already.

Therefore, I have to trust in my town read on Kak and Fischl.

It doesn't feel great tbh.

what about the situation that you get the night action from mafia, so you aren't in the final three?

lets imagine bomo and dazo, one town one mafia, we vote the correct one and chaqa gets the night action (lets also imagine lfischl and me, one town, one mafia), surviver would be lfiska, bomo and kachl. Who would bomo vote then? I think it would be lopsided, but I don't think unwinnable.

Why does it sound you are so sure you would be in the final 3?

The only way I get nightkilled I think is if we flip the Godfather today.

hm, I guess that's true

[Chaqa]

I'm not terribly opposed to ending today.

If Kak is mafia and I've been bamboozled, I'll take the L.

##END

[Kakarroto]

I've had an eat, tried to soft reset my mind and look at my former post. With that I think there can only be 3 teams that are logically possible:

chaqa-heartthrob-lfischl
bozo-damo-heartthrob
damo-heartthrob-lfischl

I think the chaqa lfischl is still possible, but for that there has to go so much in their favour and chaqa has to sacrifice his tell.

@damo @bozo I want to give you a bit of time to convince me that we actually have this maf team, but that has to be a gigantic good argument with detailed analysis to believe you. To be frank, I give this team a 1% chance to be true, just that little doubt I have in myself let me even consider it a possibility.

comparing the two other teams, I think there is like a 60:40 chance; bozo+damo more possible than bozo+lfischl

Therefore, we should vote today damo, since he is part of both teams

##vote damo

I urge you to change your vote to damo since that should be the best way for town to get to the truth

[Chaqa]

I've had an eat, tried to soft reset my mind and look at my former post. With that I think there can only be 3 teams that are logically possible:

chaqa-heartthrob-lfischl
bozo-damo-heartthrob
damo-heartthrob-lfischl

I think the chaqa lfischl is still possible, but for that there has to go so much in their favour and chaqa has to sacrifice his tell.

@damo @bozo I want to give you a bit of time to convince me that we actually have this maf team, but that has to be a gigantic good argument with detailed analysis to believe you. To be frank, I give this team a 1% chance to be true, just that little doubt I have in myself let me even consider it a possibility.

comparing the two other teams, I think there is like a 60:40 chance; bozo+damo more possible than bozo+lfischl

Therefore, we should vote today damo, since he is part of both teams

##vote damo

I urge you to change your vote to damo since that should be the best way for town to get to the truth

##Vote damo

Let me think more on this.

[Chaqa]

OK yeah, this is basically where I was at anyway since I think you, me, and Lfischl are the town. So damo is also fine to vote.

[Chaqa]

Yeah, I think this feels right.

I don't think it's Lfischl-Bozo, so Damo always is scum I think

[bozotheclown]

[...]
I think we have to go with one of bozo or damo here, leaning bozo currently but not fully decided

Do you not understand why damo and I am town based on demonstrating our scans of worcej were real?

so you're saying mafia wouldn't have the ability to act like town if they'd scan the dog? Or to fudge their scans if they reveal their targets on a later date?

If you say you are town because you defended worcej, you have to include myself there where I noticed during the day worcej was either scanned or (at the time it was still a possibility) that worcej was mafia that got protected (though that would've included one town that fudged their scan on worcej so I disregarded that for the moment).

[...]
I would consider chaqa, I won’t vote kak, he is just objectively town

If you are not willing to vote for Kakarroto D5 or D6, the mafia will win, because Kakarroto is mafia. I know he has done very well as mafia, but damo and I are town. The mafia only have one dog scan between them, so if damo or I were mafia, all the mafia would have known worcej was the doctor, and
heartthrob was clearly surprised by worcej's claim D3.

Show me where I was surprised about worcej's claim D3: you will not find it because you could've deducted it like me that worcej was dog. So that reaction isn't a tell. It could've been very well the plan to have heartthrob push worcej more to bring him to claim while the other members try to protect him during the day. Mafia didn't had to remove worcej D3, they could wait, in fact, they even waited for one more night. Worcej tunneling on heartthrob most likely wasn't their desired outcome but they proably wanted to get me removed. Anyway, it's another example where you have a line of thinking (that is wrong, which is fine, people can be wrong) but you don't have the same line of thinking for others. It looks like you bend your logic to fit people differently and THAT is what I pointed out for days on days what makes you look like mafia.

to be fair I saw a similar way of thinking in worcej so until I noticed he's the dog, I was pretty sure he was mafia; so if you are town, you don't have the same luxury as worcej and just magically clear you, you have to act on that, and even with doubt in my mind I can't see much town in you

[...]

Did you not consider that it might be a decent play to act like you are surprised when you know as mafia?

I did not mean how heartthrob acted, it was that he was unprepared for worcej to claim doctor.

go back, look at all the reactions, write them down, post them here again. I'm sure your theory will fall down when faced to the actual data.

You, Chaqa, and heartthrob all reacted the same to the doctor claim, by not voting for Bonatogether, who all 3 of you were trying to pocket all game. You kept your vote on bo_sox after he soft claimed cop with a scan on Chaqa.

[bozotheclown]

I've had an eat, tried to soft reset my mind and look at my former post. With that I think there can only be 3 teams that are logically possible:

chaqa-heartthrob-lfischl
bozo-damo-heartthrob
damo-heartthrob-lfischl

I think the chaqa lfischl is still possible, but for that there has to go so much in their favour and chaqa has to sacrifice his tell.

@damo @bozo I want to give you a bit of time to convince me that we actually have this maf team, but that has to be a gigantic good argument with detailed analysis to believe you. To be frank, I give this team a 1% chance to be true, just that little doubt I have in myself let me even consider it a possibility.

comparing the two other teams, I think there is like a 60:40 chance; bozo+damo more possible than bozo+lfischl

Therefore, we should vote today damo, since he is part of both teams

##vote damo

I urge you to change your vote to damo since that should be the best way for town to get to the truth

Since you seem to be using the dog check survey results, can you now tell us who you checked N1 and N2 (unless you have done so already and I missed it)?

[bozotheclown]

@lfischl what are your current thought about bozo, worcej, damo and bo?

Damo: if chaqa filps scum he's conf town in my eyes, if he flips town I think we DK him next

Worcej: Not much really, don't think he's a good kill

Bozo: Would be fine killing him here if it got to that, would prefer bona or heart though

Bo: Town

thanks. I don't know what you see in bo as town but maybe I'm wrong.

I'm not sure why you connect damo this strongly with chaqa, I thought there was another connection that would give much more information? Then again, I'm not sure if you see what I see.

What were you talking about in this post?

[bozotheclown]

I'm not terribly opposed to ending today.

If Kak is mafia and I've been bamboozled, I'll take the L.

##END

I think we have to go with one of bozo or damo here, leaning bozo currently but not fully decided

Do you not understand why damo and I am town based on demonstrating our scans of worcej were real?

I would consider chaqa, I won’t vote kak, he is just objectively town

Both of these posts look so much like extreme pocketing that I am having a hard time believing one came from a scum teammate and another came from town.