M1023: Mafarmia [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

[bozotheclown]

Yeah I had always intended to claim tonight even if worcej were still hidden lol. I just wanted to make sure you weren’t dead, and was ready to claim on your behalf if needed. Desperate times…

FWIW, you were mostly on my scum lists by PoE and not being particularly scummy. I was pretty meh on you as mafia. I was sure worc was... lol

I mean at this point with worcej and I clear and you off the table I’d be pretty impressed if we don’t manage to at least get one kill right.

I shouldn’t definitively call myself clear until everyone has spoken but I think the mafia would be doing us a favor by ccing me so I’ll take that fight if they do.

We agree on heartthrob and Kakarroto, so we can start with them. Then Chaqa will bring you and me to the final 3 and WIFOM that I was trying to frame him.

[bo_sox48]

If I’m alive in the final three something is wrong here

[Chaqa]

I'm on vacation until next year. Time to party

[bozotheclown]

1. Worcej, bad claim. Awful claim.
2. Bad conclusions
3. Bad wagon

mafia team is Damo, Bozo, bo. Come at me bro

I guess. IDK, I feel like both of these claims were gimmes to mafia.

Yeah I had always intended to claim tonight even if worcej were still hidden lol. I just wanted to make sure you weren’t dead, and was ready to claim on your behalf if needed. Desperate times…

FWIW, you were mostly on my scum lists by PoE and not being particularly scummy. I was pretty meh on you as mafia. I was sure worc was... lol

[bozotheclown]

Please do.

Being aware that worcej was a PR throughout D3 doesn’t really help anyone unless they can clearly show they were also aware on D2. It would have been asinine for the mafia to try and take out worcej knowing that he would claim late and potentially redirect the kill onto one of them without any communication at all. It simply wouldn’t have worked, and outing him instead of just killing him tonight and tanking our morale even further wouldn’t do them any favors.

lfischl and I did not know worcej was the doctor until D3. Here are lfischl's posts:

Shoot not worcej sorry heart bona bozo damo, In that order

Damo: if chaqa filps scum he's conf town in my eyes, if he flips town I think we DK him next

Worcej: Not much really, don't think he's a good kill

Bozo: Would be fine killing him here if it got to that, would prefer bona or heart though

Bo: Town

I’m lost. He didn’t scumread him, cool I guess? I townread him so I’d rather hear about you and damo.

I followed worcej's first two D3 votes minutes later to make sure he knew my scan of him was real. damo made it clear he would not vote for worcej when worcej was his only counter wagon.

damo signaled me here about everyone suspecting worcej except the three of us who had reported a scan on him:

Correction:

Shoot not worcej sorry heart bona bozo damo, In that order

scum pool (up to 4):

bozo: Bonatogether, Chaqa, damo, Kakarroto
Chaqa: bo_sox, bozo, damo, worcej
damo: Chaqa, lfischl, Bonatogether, bozo
bo_sox: damo, worcej, lfischl
worcej: Bonatogether, Kakarroto, damo, heartthrob
lfischl: heartthrob, Bonatogether, bozo, damo
heartthrob: (Chaqa, damo, worcej)
Kakarroto: (worcej, bozo, Chaqa, damo)
Bonatogether: (bo_sox, bozo, damo, worcej)

damo: 7
bozo: 5
worcej: 5
Bonatogether: 4
Chaqa: 4
bo_sox: 2
heartthrob: 2
Kakarroto: 2
lfischl: 2

@bozo tallies are a tad bizarre don't you think?

[worcej]

I am most confident in a damo/heart/Kaka team at this point.

I'm actually way more confident Kak is town than Fisch.

Thoughts on bozo? Outside of him and damo I don’t think there is anyone else who would fearkill ghug and then PR read or fearkill rdr instead of just ignoring him as one of the most apathetic posters of the game.

I really get that you think damo is scum, but his D2 posts, though few and not incredibly engaging, support him not wanting to scum me in any way.

[worcej]

FWIW, Bozo’s post about him and damo communicating did catch my eye.

Fisch was very obviously anti-me after his scan on D3.

As a reminder: scum scan as a team - so they have only had two chances to scan me. This being said, I can firmly believe Damo is not scum and bozo/fisch are only scum if both are scum. But I don’t believe they are scum at this point.

[worcej]

Please do.

Being aware that worcej was a PR throughout D3 doesn’t really help anyone unless they can clearly show they were also aware on D2. It would have been asinine for the mafia to try and take out worcej knowing that he would claim late and potentially redirect the kill onto one of them without any communication at all. It simply wouldn’t have worked, and outing him instead of just killing him tonight and tanking our morale even further wouldn’t do them any favors.

lfischl and I did not know worcej was the doctor until D3. Here are lfischl's posts:

Shoot not worcej sorry heart bona bozo damo, In that order

Damo: if chaqa filps scum he's conf town in my eyes, if he flips town I think we DK him next

Worcej: Not much really, don't think he's a good kill

Bozo: Would be fine killing him here if it got to that, would prefer bona or heart though

Bo: Town

I’m lost. He didn’t scumread him, cool I guess? I townread him so I’d rather hear about you and damo.

My interpretation was he was trying to be obvious to correct his scum read response. I see two situations possible here:

1. Fisch is scum and fucked up his fake reads, thus slipping and jeopardizing the scum scan on N2 of me and potentially revealing that bozo is also scum too.

2. Fisch mispoke as town and wanted to make sure he showed that I was town so that I, and others, wouldn’t confuse his read.

My analysis of him as a player leads me to believe option #2 is most likely the case, but I will give Bona some benefit of the doubt that yes, the odds are more than 1% likely that number 1 is the truth.

[damo666]

So either Chaqa or lfischl is godfather or both are town.
Now I believe they are coaligned. If we assume this the scum team has to be heart, kak, Bozo. The problem here is that I am very much townreading Bozo so I think my coalignment assumption must be wrong and either Chaqa or lfischl is the godfather (I would say 60/40 in that order).
Anyway our next 2 daykills should be heart and kak.
With the next two NKs clearly Bo and worcej that will leave me Bozo chaqa and lfischl.
It would appear we have a 33% chance of victory.

[damo666]

To aid the Christmas break issue I suggest we hammer heart tomorrow and kak the following day.

As tonight and tomorrow night are also obvious we should all pm the GM to hammer each night as well.

[bozotheclown]

So either Chaqa or lfischl is godfather or both are town.
Now I believe they are coaligned. If we assume this the scum team has to be heart, kak, Bozo. The problem here is that I am very much townreading Bozo so I think my coalignment assumption must be wrong and either Chaqa or lfischl is the godfather (I would say 60/40 in that order).
Anyway our next 2 daykills should be heart and kak.
With the next two NKs clearly Bo and worcej that will leave me Bozo chaqa and lfischl.
It would appear we have a 33% chance of victory.

I am not sure why you think they have the same alignment. Chaqa as GF and lfischl as VT/miller seems the most obvious. Chaqa town reading lfischl was either pocketing or to set up lfischl as a mis-kill.

[damo666]

So either Chaqa or lfischl is godfather or both are town.
Now I believe they are coaligned. If we assume this the scum team has to be heart, kak, Bozo. The problem here is that I am very much townreading Bozo so I think my coalignment assumption must be wrong and either Chaqa or lfischl is the godfather (I would say 60/40 in that order).
Anyway our next 2 daykills should be heart and kak.
With the next two NKs clearly Bo and worcej that will leave me Bozo chaqa and lfischl.
It would appear we have a 33% chance of victory.

I am not sure why you think they have the same alignment. Chaqa as GF and lfischl as VT/miller seems the most obvious. Chaqa town reading lfischl was either pocketing or to set up lfischl as a mis-kill.

It was based off lfischl's late D1 switch from Chaqa to Bunny but I now think that was probably just to avoid a tie which of itself is nai.

I tend to agree Chaqa more likely to be GF than lfischl but not by a great deal. Unless ofc you are being crafty scum leading me up the garden path but I think the likelihood of that is pretty low.

So, unless something happens to change mind I'll very likely be choosing between Chaqa and lfischl.

[bozotheclown]

scum pool (up to 4):

bozo: Bonatogether, Chaqa, damo, Kakarroto
Chaqa: bo_sox, bozo, damo, worcej
damo: Chaqa, lfischl, Bonatogether, bozo
bo_sox: damo, worcej, lfischl
worcej: Bonatogether, Kakarroto, damo, heartthrob
lfischl: heartthrob, Bonatogether, bozo, damo
heartthrob: (Chaqa, damo, worcej)
Kakarroto: (worcej, bozo, Chaqa, damo)
Bonatogether: (bo_sox, bozo, damo, worcej)

damo: 7
bozo: 5
worcej: 5
Bonatogether: 4
Chaqa: 4
bo_sox: 2
heartthrob: 2
Kakarroto: 2
lfischl: 2

A lot of this was tabulated from players reads, as I think only worcej and lfischl directly responded to my request with the information listed.

However, I think it is obvious that damo, lfischl, and I knew worcej was town, and everyone else indicated suspicion of worcej.

For any town player to think that damo, lfischl, or I were mafia, I believe one of two things would have to be true.

1. damo, lfischl, and I are all mafia, we scanned worcej, and used that information to try to look like town. This would also mean that every town member incorrectly suspected worcej.

2. 1 or 2 of us are mafia, mafia scanned worcej, are the plan was for 1 or 2 mafia to use that information to look like town, while 1 or 2 mafia pressured worcej.

I know option 1 is not true, and I don't think that looks likely to anyone else either. Based on what damo and lfischl did during D3 and the reactions to worcej's claim at EOD, the mafia would have had to plan for a lot of contingencies to pull off option 2, so it seems very unlikely to be the case.

If I am correct, the mafia will have to argue for one of these, but the answer is very likely just this:

worcej: doctor
bo_sox: cop
bozotheclown/damo/lfischl: VTs/miller

Chaqa: GF
heartthrob/Kakarroto: goons

[Chaqa]

So either Chaqa or lfischl is godfather or both are town.
Now I believe they are coaligned. If we assume this the scum team has to be heart, kak, Bozo. The problem here is that I am very much townreading Bozo so I think my coalignment assumption must be wrong and either Chaqa or lfischl is the godfather (I would say 60/40 in that order).
Anyway our next 2 daykills should be heart and kak.
With the next two NKs clearly Bo and worcej that will leave me Bozo chaqa and lfischl.
It would appear we have a 33% chance of victory.

I am not sure why you think they have the same alignment. Chaqa as GF and lfischl as VT/miller seems the most obvious. Chaqa town reading lfischl was either pocketing or to set up lfischl as a mis-kill.

Or it was town!Chaqa earnestly believing he was town.

[Chaqa]

FWIW while I'm alive I won't vote Kak. Just an FYI.

[Chaqa]

So either Chaqa or lfischl is godfather or both are town.
Now I believe they are coaligned. If we assume this the scum team has to be heart, kak, Bozo. The problem here is that I am very much townreading Bozo so I think my coalignment assumption must be wrong and either Chaqa or lfischl is the godfather (I would say 60/40 in that order).
Anyway our next 2 daykills should be heart and kak.
With the next two NKs clearly Bo and worcej that will leave me Bozo chaqa and lfischl.
It would appear we have a 33% chance of victory.

I am not sure why you think they have the same alignment. Chaqa as GF and lfischl as VT/miller seems the most obvious. Chaqa town reading lfischl was either pocketing or to set up lfischl as a mis-kill.

It was based off lfischl's late D1 switch from Chaqa to Bunny but I now think that was probably just to avoid a tie which of itself is nai.

I tend to agree Chaqa more likely to be GF than lfischl but not by a great deal. Unless ofc you are being crafty scum leading me up the garden path but I think the likelihood of that is pretty low.

So, unless something happens to change mind I'll very likely be choosing between Chaqa and lfischl.

If breaking a tie is NAI, then why is causing a tie AI?

[bozotheclown]

So either Chaqa or lfischl is godfather or both are town.
Now I believe they are coaligned. If we assume this the scum team has to be heart, kak, Bozo. The problem here is that I am very much townreading Bozo so I think my coalignment assumption must be wrong and either Chaqa or lfischl is the godfather (I would say 60/40 in that order).
Anyway our next 2 daykills should be heart and kak.
With the next two NKs clearly Bo and worcej that will leave me Bozo chaqa and lfischl.
It would appear we have a 33% chance of victory.

I am not sure why you think they have the same alignment. Chaqa as GF and lfischl as VT/miller seems the most obvious. Chaqa town reading lfischl was either pocketing or to set up lfischl as a mis-kill.

It was based off lfischl's late D1 switch from Chaqa to Bunny but I now think that was probably just to avoid a tie which of itself is nai.

I tend to agree Chaqa more likely to be GF than lfischl but not by a great deal. Unless ofc you are being crafty scum leading me up the garden path but I think the likelihood of that is pretty low.

So, unless something happens to change mind I'll very likely be choosing between Chaqa and lfischl.

I checked worcej N2

Now in the case where multiple people picked the same, what do we do here

Maybe lfischl, who like Kakarroto, is holding their vote for late in D3.

Oh I’ve just been hella busy the last couple days, but my scum pool is something like bona worcej heart and then bozo or damo

Shoot not worcej sorry heart bona bozo damo, In that order

Will start it regardless.

##vote Bona

I'd support this if you still wanted it worcej

@lfischl what are your current thought about bozo, worcej, damo and bo?

Damo: if chaqa filps scum he's conf town in my eyes, if he flips town I think we DK him next

Worcej: Not much really, don't think he's a good kill

Bozo: Would be fine killing him here if it got to that, would prefer bona or heart though

Bo: Town

I believe lfischl was clearly indicating he knew worcej was town, and I think it is very unlikely the remaining mafia knew worcej was town based on the way D3 went, and therefore unlikely there was a mafia plan for lfischl to look like a town who scanned worcej while the other 2 express suspicion of worcej then suddenly pivot if worcej claimed. It is much more likely the mafia would have just waited to NK worcej N3.

[damo666]

I am not sure why you think they have the same alignment. Chaqa as GF and lfischl as VT/miller seems the most obvious. Chaqa town reading lfischl was either pocketing or to set up lfischl as a mis-kill.

It was based off lfischl's late D1 switch from Chaqa to Bunny but I now think that was probably just to avoid a tie which of itself is nai.

I tend to agree Chaqa more likely to be GF than lfischl but not by a great deal. Unless ofc you are being crafty scum leading me up the garden path but I think the likelihood of that is pretty low.

So, unless something happens to change mind I'll very likely be choosing between Chaqa and lfischl.

If breaking a tie is NAI, then why is causing a tie AI?

Is it? Could be scum saving a teammate or town saving a known PR (or at least having very strong vibes the wagon leader is town). More SI than TI but I don't really know why you are asking the question.

[damo666]

FWIW while I'm alive I won't vote Kak. Just an FYI.

@Bozo would GF Chaqa be quite so blatant about a teammate? I'm now making Chaqa/lfischl 50/50.

[Chaqa]

It was based off lfischl's late D1 switch from Chaqa to Bunny but I now think that was probably just to avoid a tie which of itself is nai.

I tend to agree Chaqa more likely to be GF than lfischl but not by a great deal. Unless ofc you are being crafty scum leading me up the garden path but I think the likelihood of that is pretty low.

So, unless something happens to change mind I'll very likely be choosing between Chaqa and lfischl.

If breaking a tie is NAI, then why is causing a tie AI?

Is it? Could be scum saving a teammate or town saving a known PR (or at least having very strong vibes the wagon leader is town). More SI than TI but I don't really know why you are asking the question.

Causing a tie being scummy is one of the few gospels of webdip ...