M1023: Mafarmia [GAME THREAD] [HIDDEN]

[bo_sox48]

Kakarroto
lfischl
Bonatogether
heartthrob24909
bo_sox47
worcej
damo666
bozotheclown

This is roughly where I'm at

And this is where I am at [Scum to Town] with % chance of being scum

Chaqa 50
lfischl 50

Bona 40
Bozo 40

heart 37.5
worcej 37.5

Kak 30
Bo 19.5*


* spurious precision to force a total of 300

The most effort you’ve made in the game up to this point happens to be the least useful post of the game up to this point, and I just thought that was impressive.

[worcej]

##vote worcej
gonna wait for more of the chaqa vs damo to unfold before potentially picking a side here, and worcej is someone who i feel like i can distinguish their personality but has not struck me as loudly town like some others

What is ‘loudly town’ to you?

[bo_sox48]

Today should be damo v worcej v lfischl maybe, as a wildcard

[worcej]

maybe this has changed in the interim - but worcestershire has not made any real substantive contributions while making a lot of commentary posts

pot meet kettle?

[worcej]

Today should be damo v worcej v lfischl maybe, as a wildcard

Order of preference currently leaning towards damo/fish, then myself.

[bo_sox48]

I would be concerned if you put yourself above damo and lfischl, tbh

[worcej]

My 4 scum pool is currently bona, kak, damo, and heart.

Heart is beginning go become a concern for me, not because of omgus, but I am sensing a pocket move being done by him.

Still feeling confident Chaqa, bozo, and bo are town. Luke warm on fish, but more due to not pinging anything good or bad from him.

[Bonatogether]

Lfischl is locktown

I'm assuming someone else has question this by now, but if not, say more?

Mostly because I don't remember why he's locktown, but past me decided he was, and I trust myself.

i think chaqa is probably just reaction testing

[Bonatogether]

maybe this has changed in the interim - but worcestershire has not made any real substantive contributions while making a lot of commentary posts

pot meet kettle?

i killed two townies - what have you done?

[Bonatogether]

I'll just get on my soap box right now that I think bozo's survey could actually be value added down the road and those being obstinate to it are just stuck in their little singular box mindset that usually causes town to lose games.

Like, seriously, these votes on bozo are bad.

##vote Bona

the culmination of a grand flop in an attempt to show why the survey is a good ideea

[bozotheclown]

[...]
That was also the post that made me vote for Chaqa D1, as it seemed unlikely Chaqa forgot about the existence of this game considering he confirmed participation after the game filled and not long before it started. Also, I thought the D1 thing was a potential scum ploy, although I did not consider at the time that it could be a signal to bus him.

What do you think about the situation of worcej then, since he was the last to post in the signup thread with a note of hurry but then didn't even vote on D1? It seems unlikely worcej forgot about the existence of this game considering he posted after the game was filled and confirmation took place, no?

worcej did not claim to have forgotten the game existed, I believe he just indicated he was not aware it had started when he first posted D1.

[bozotheclown]

I am growing to believe damo is for sure scum - his behavior is more passive than normal and it feels incredibly off from his town meta.

I also believe one of kak or bona is also scum. Primarily due to their insistence on the survey being bad and their lack of contribution regarding it. At a certain point, enough town did it so they should have too.

I pet bozo tonight. I hope he is a good farm animal and not a wild one.

so what about RD? Oh right, he flipped right after you posted that. Coincidence you didn't say a word about him? There were four people who didn't contribute to the survey, one was ejected D2, the second devoured by wolves N2; You not mentioning RD here looks like you knew he wouldn't be alive so it wouldn't matter for the picture you want to paint.

Also, 50% of the resistance group is proven town, there is a good reason why those town resisted. I know now that at least 75% of those are town, so resisting giving this information seems truly to be a good idea and mafia wants to get those anti-survey people out of the game.

Also your pet action doesn't work that way, you only get info if dog or not.

I wish I had a mafia scouter because I'm sure it would show something over 8000 towards you.

I think this is what the mafia would like the town to think.

[lfischl]

I'm assuming someone else has question this by now, but if not, say more?

Mostly because I don't remember why he's locktown, but past me decided he was, and I trust myself.

i think chaqa is probably just reaction testing

In what way?

[bozotheclown]

N1 dog checks:

bozo: ghug
Chaqa: bozo
Bonatogether: no check
heartthrob: damo
lfischl: Kakarroto
Kakarroto: refuses to participate
bo_sox: rdrivera
celaph: no check
worcej: Chaqa
rdrivera: refuses to participate
damo: refuses to participate

N2 dog checks:

worcej: bozo
Bonatogether: no check
lfischl: worcej
Chaqa: rdrivera
bozo: worcej

My initial reaction D2 was that heartthrob and lfischl seemed likely to be town for responding quickly (Chaqa responded quickly also, but I was already suspecting him for other reasons). Also, bo_sox and worcej seemed likely to be town for defending the survey, because I doubt either would do that to try to pocket me when I had a good chance of being the DK. With celaph and rdrivera no longer in the game, Bonatogether, Kakarroto, and damo are the only remaining dissenters.

I still suspect Chaqa, so that leaves Bonatogether, Kakarroto, damo, and Chaqa as my scum pool.

damo didn't too? I guess my math is off then.

I still don't understand how your pool is just anti-surveys plus chaqa. Your survey still is very bad for town in this game and you don't seem to realize that. Why do you think RD was targeted? Surely not because he was a potential PR with his vanilla claim D1. It seems much more likely mafia is targeting anti-surveys to get rid of those opposing so they get more info about the dog. If my hunch is correct, maf worcej is also trying to smear those who didn't participate which couldn't be hit with the single shot they had. (I can't rule out that worcej is just stupidly wrong here though.)

I can understand that you don't see the dog survey as absolutely flawed and think the benefits outweigh the cost, but thinking the surviving resistance is mafia while all dead resistance was town is just a worldview that town bozo wouldn't have in my opinion. Well maybe I overestimated you, but you writing you don't think worcej would be trying to pocket you as mafia while you are doing mafia a favour is just ... just so ... I want to rip out my hair so stupidly stupid that is. And I think maf bo would be able to do so too, wouldn't cost him much if you turned out to be the day flip.

The dissenters and Chaqa are my scum pool, so if I am right about Chaqa, at least one remaining town dissented, along with rdrivera, although damo is participating now. celaph said he thought the check was one use only, so I am not sure I would say he was dissenting.

[bozotheclown]

The scumteam killing rdr indicates they are PR hunting which bodes well for us imo, it means participation is not very likely to be punished by a nightkill. It also means that killing lurkers by day is a very valid strategy because our PRs should see that kill and feel like their best defense is to play hard, so they probably won’t be hiding that way anymore.

why would you think RD would be likely PR, and why would mafia think that?

I don't get your logic, why does a RD target mean that we should focus on lurkers? And any potential lurking PR should change their behaviour? Wouldn't that just point to them and make it easier for mafia to pick them up?

Correct me if I misunderstand you but that sounds awful (well except for more participation, but it seems like you want to goat PR's here).

Well I petted rdr N1 so obviously I thought he might be a the dog lol.

PRs should be active and participate because the mafia is looking for PRs among people who are not actively participating, as the rdr kill in my opinion demonstrates, and you haven’t disputed that. And yes, lurking PRs should change their behavior, and we should kill lurkers because once the PRs wisely stray away from that path the remaining ones include a deep threat.

Why else do you suppose rdr was killed? Your killing anti-survey people makes zero sense, and I am still hoping you’re being sarcastic by supposing the mafia started off their quest to kill anti-survey folks, a goal that would take the entire game and has no stated gain for them, with the least talkative and most apathetic of the anti-survey post as opposed to any of the other ones.

So let’s think through some alternatives:
a) The mafia team is comprised of all the other anti-survey people that are being louder about it than rdrivera! But in that case they killed an ally.
b) The mafia team killed rdrivera because he had one of them pinned in an inescapable corner! But he didn’t have anyone pinned in a corner and wasn’t doing anything.
c) The mafia team killed rdrivera because he was the most dangerous player remaining to them in some hypothetical scenario down the road. What scenario could that be?
d) The mafia team killed rdrivera because they thought he was a PR. You didn’t explain why this doesn’t make sense.
e) (insert your answer here)

I think I like "a".

[bozotheclown]

Today should be damo v worcej v lfischl maybe, as a wildcard

I will take that as your scum pool unless you say otherwise.

[Bonatogether]

It's still better than nothing at an honest cost of nothing.

the cost is medium
the benefits are nil

i do not understand why this is a sticking point

And here is why we're different - it's actually this:

the cost is nil
the benefits are medium

Town should want to build upon information to develop potential connections and facts for future flips. Wanting to limit any information gathering is inherently scummy.

i still have no idea how anyone can regard the cost as nil, even if there is a benefit

[Bonatogether]

i remember why i scumread bozo

irritating

[bozotheclown]

N1 dog checks:

bozo: ghug
Chaqa: bozo
Bonatogether: no check
heartthrob: damo
lfischl: Kakarroto
Kakarroto: refuses to participate
bo_sox: rdrivera
celaph: no check
worcej: Chaqa
rdrivera: refuses to participate
damo: worcej

N2 dog checks:

worcej: bozo
Bonatogether: no check
lfischl: worcej
Chaqa: rdrivera
bozo: worcej
bo_sox: damo
damo: bozo
heartthrob: Kakarroto
Kakarroto: refuses to participate

[bozotheclown]

i remember why i scumread bozo

irritating

Why is that? Also, can your list your scum pool up to 4?