MAFIA 75: TROUBLE AT THE PRECINCT [HIDDEN]

[ghug]

I think I should probably peek.

[worcej]

I think the tag got taken on N3 since Rivera couldn't have had it on D3.

*this is about the 2-vote tag, but I also think your tag was taken that day.

The only option for rdr to have it is if he was the BD.

Or, in actuality, it’s impossible because Vecna had the tag he claimed to have peeked apparently.

[worcej]

Well, it’s not impossible, it would have required the scum team to swap the tag back to Vecna N3

[worcej]

Fixing my error and continuing to focus on N2:
(Celaph or ghug) -> worcej -> BD -> Celug
Worcej -> celug -> BD -> worcej

The BD in this case must be someone in Chaqa, Bona, Eden and Rumi based off known flips and claimed scans. Celaph could be a goon, but is definitely not the BD if the tag was taken N2.

[worcej]

Again, rdr is eliminated as a possible BD because both the +2 and 0 vote must be on the snowy wagon.

[President Eden]

I think I should probably peek.

There’s no risk in you specifically doing it, AFAIK.

[worcej]

Now, look at D4 to figure out possible ways to get the +2 to rdr. We now know that the 0 is in the top wagon. Bo’s vote D3 eliminates him from being the BD in my eyes, but I may be wrong.

If we assume the original combinations that I posted, either I got the double and had it lifted N3 to rdr or the BD had it on N2.

Assuming I got it N2, the swap has to be this on N3:
Worcej -> rdr -> BD -> worcej
Rdr -> worcej -> BD -> Rdr

[ghug]

Fixing my error and continuing to focus on N2:
(Celaph or ghug) -> worcej -> BD -> Celug
Worcej -> celug -> BD -> worcej

The BD in this case must be someone in Chaqa, Bona, Eden and Rumi based off known flips and claimed scans. Celaph could be a goon, but is definitely not the BD if the tag was taken N2.

What about worcej -> (Chaqa, Bona, Eden and Rumi) -> celaph Driver -> worcej?

There's also a doctor but let's not get into that.

[ghug]

I think I should probably peek.

There’s no risk in you specifically doing it, AFAIK.

It kinda blows if I'm the oracle but it's starting to seem like a net positive.

[worcej]

If the BD got it on N2, it cannot be rdr.

My rough conclusion currently is the BD is either rdr or one of Rumi, Eden, Chaqa, or Bona

[worcej]

Fixing my error and continuing to focus on N2:
(Celaph or ghug) -> worcej -> BD -> Celug
Worcej -> celug -> BD -> worcej

The BD in this case must be someone in Chaqa, Bona, Eden and Rumi based off known flips and claimed scans. Celaph could be a goon, but is definitely not the BD if the tag was taken N2.

What about worcej -> (Chaqa, Bona, Eden and Rumi) -> celaph Driver -> worcej?

There's also a doctor but let's not get into that.

Possible, but why did the scum want to take my 0 and potentially give me the +2?

[worcej]

On N2 - before they knew how the phase would play out to hide it?

[President Eden]

Sorry if I’m behind, but to concisely restate what I think you already worked out:

rdr had to have received the double vote last night, because we know that all three of snowy, Vecna, and bo had neither the double vote nor the no vote D3. Thus, the no vote and the double vote had to be on snowy’s wagon D3. rdr was not on snowy’s wagon D3, so he cannot have had it D3. In order to get it for D4, then, he was bused with someone N3.

[Chaqa]

I think the tag got taken on N3 since Rivera couldn't have had it on D3.

*this is about the 2-vote tag, but I also think your tag was taken that day.

The only option for rdr to have it is if he was the BD.

Yes, that's my theory.

[Chaqa]

I think I should probably peek.

Yeah, don't let this be one of those games you hold your abilities until you're dead lol

[ghug]

Fixing my error and continuing to focus on N2:
(Celaph or ghug) -> worcej -> BD -> Celug
Worcej -> celug -> BD -> worcej

The BD in this case must be someone in Chaqa, Bona, Eden and Rumi based off known flips and claimed scans. Celaph could be a goon, but is definitely not the BD if the tag was taken N2.

What about worcej -> (Chaqa, Bona, Eden and Rumi) -> celaph Driver -> worcej?

There's also a doctor but let's not get into that.

Possible, but why did the scum want to take my 0 and potentially give me the +2?

To make you look bad? Because they knew celaph didn't have the 2? Hard to say, but ruling it out entirely seems unwise.

[President Eden]

I am also comfortable assuming worcej did not get saved N1 by the Doctor, meaning that he started with the no vote tag, meaning that either he lost the no vote tag N2, or the bus driver simultaneously moved the double vote and no vote tags N3.

[President Eden]

Also, at some point, Brian got the bomb.

[Chaqa]

Sorry if I’m behind, but to concisely restate what I think you already worked out:

rdr had to have received the double vote last night, because we know that all three of snowy, Vecna, and bo had neither the double vote nor the no vote D3. Thus, the no vote and the double vote had to be on snowy’s wagon D3. rdr was not on snowy’s wagon D3, so he cannot have had it D3. In order to get it for D4, then, he was bused with someone N3.

Yep, which is why I believe worcej had 0-vote until today and likely celaph had 2-vote until today.

I suspect either celaph driver bussing to rivera to worcej (meaning celaph would now have the 0-vote) or rivera driver bussing worcej to celaph (meaning celaph now has the 0-vote)

This is based on the assumption celaph had the 2-vote.

celaph should peek

[Chaqa]

Also, at some point, Brian got the bomb.

I believe on Night 2, since we know Night 3 was spent shuffling vote tags.