MAFIA 75: TROUBLE AT THE PRECINCT [HIDDEN]

[worcej]

No actually, if I make people reread your reasoning for suddenly jumping onto Byz after it started getting some traction, im quite sure people might feel the same way as I do.

It was a very articulate post to vote there. Very detailed. Not like you randomly voting like that at all.

I feel like Bona's scum Byz read had a very clearly defined origin.

For whatever reason, this entire fucking post strikes me as scummy. I can explain it, because I am a townsperson. I do not oversell myself because that's no bueno.

Actually I'm gonna ##vote Byz

for me, the 'agreeableness is vaguely scummy' and especially the 'i am pretty good at these feel reads' set off a ton of alarm bells - what about it makes you like it?

i've played with byz before (he was scum and won at lylo) and this somewhat reminds me of that

And was a read that persisted while his vote was on Bo.

byz cause scum

byz is complex. i have not completed a game with him where he was town, so i have no idea of his meta. as scum though, he successfully powerwolfed to win in f3. probably indicative of the fact that he is usually some kind of town leader as town? not sure about that. in this game, his posts really grate on me in a way that's hard for me to view as town. other people (rdr) have said they like him for the exact posts that make me suspicious, so i figure we need to devote some more brainpower to him.

invalid and poorly reasoned vote

All told his eventual collapse off of the meme Bo wagon and onto the actual Byz wagon feels incredibly natural to me. What am I missing? Why is this random?

The one thing I want to comment here, specifically about Bona’s read of Byz, is it actually comes off more like a bus than a town push to me.

[worcej]

I’m poring over Chaqa’s analysis again, I kind of want to watch rdr and celaph square off for a bit without steering the discussion.

You might get what you want. My concern is that I can see compelling narratives where town rdr acts this anti-town.

What? This sounds weird to me.

[Rumi Tobari]

I think HB might be town now.

What do you townread in HB?

I still struggle to see why anyone scum reads HB now. Everything presented is a mechanical reason.

I'm admittedly still doing it because Neon's habit of going back on stances she makes in very opposite ways:
saying Snowy will not be judged on Byz's actions > saying Byz's actions will be considered
townereads me for my presumable AtE > scumreads me for the same thing
tells me that lying as town is a terrible thing and not to listen to Snowy > justifies why Sabi or Snowy would lie as town

I am willing to vote for someone else if I have someone I can clearly read as scum though.

[President Eden]

It is really hard to work anything definitive out about the double voter without knowing who the Doctor is and what they did, but we aren’t pressed hard enough to warrant outing that right now. It’s worth noting that we could be at KILO tomorrow; although it would be 6-3 (assuming a miss today and no doc save tonight), the mafia could have the double voter and the town could have the no voter, making it 5-4 in practice. For this reason, I think everyone who has not peeked yet should peek as close to EON4 as you can afford, and everyone should out their info D5 unless I say otherwise below. Ideally you should peek right at xx:59 so that if you’re a PR and accidentally Oracle yourself, the mafia won’t know it and be able to act. (Sorry if this makes a mess for you Demon!) Our Doctor should probably also out EON4 with info. The Bleeder is self-confirming and survives a nightkill, so doesn’t need to out until D5.

The big thing that we need to ensure in the meantime is that nobody fucks up worcej’s vanity wagon. Like, messing with it is a scumclaim kind of “nobody fucks with worcej’s vanity wagon.” worcej still having the no-vote would essentially town clear him, and worcej having a vote would at least be interesting if nothing else… wouldn’t damn him per se, but would require some investigation. We don’t need to vote worcej out here because his situation is so close to self-sorting, so anybody attempting to interfere with that should be presumed to have bad intentions and dealt with accordingly. DO NOT FUCK THIS UP.

Contrary to Chaqa’s earlier conclusion, I’m not sure that Vecna needs to vanity wagon here, or that anyone else does. I’m open to being overridden on this if anyone can think of a good reason, though.

If I have a vote, this post right here will be why I suspect the shit out of Eden next day phase.

Why?

[Hamilton Brian]

Alright, bear with me here.

Can we feel secure in the notion that anyone that is clearly town will self-vote? I don't remember the particulars of what led to the start of that talk yesterday, but if that's the case Vecna and Worcej look good. Right? Pro-town play?

Day 3 wagon; for sure the hammer on snowy means that there are certainly scum on that wagon. Only one person didn't move to it. So for POE work, Day 3 is a wash. But that's btinging me to D4. I am, and have been, in the lead all Day. Is there a compelling reason why there wouldn't be mafia on my wagon? Or would they wash out and just get on the small ones? Don't know; trying to play the mental balancing game.

[Rumi Tobari]

(everything Eden said)

If I have a vote, this post right here will be why I suspect the shit out of Eden next day phase.

Why?

I agree. I'm not opposed to a wagon on Eden this late, but I'm kind of townleaning Eden and will need a reason to suspect him as scum.

Sorry Eden, but without the full scumteam, I'd prefer to keep all the options open in my mind, but I'm still inclined to go for the more plausible ones first. You're leaning more implausible as scumteam for me, but I'm willing to hear arguments on why I should believe otherwise.

[Hamilton Brian]

Player's nametags were mystery to them until they asked to peek, right?

Would the best town play be to hold off from peeking until late in the game, especially if the driver is still around? Probably sounds elementary to the rest of you but I am trying to get my head around this.

[Rumi Tobari]

Can we feel secure in the notion that anyone that is clearly town will self-vote? I don't remember the particulars of what led to the start of that talk yesterday, but if that's the case Vecna and Worcej look good. Right? Pro-town play?

I feel this is missing context.

The "town shouldn't self-vote" thing came from one of my insincere and flippant "Okay, I'm scum" moments where people where shading me and I went along with by voting for myself.

I think the thing still trying to be determined here is whether worcej still has the vote0, though this could be accomplished by Worcej parking his vote on anyone, not just himself. I personally don't see why if we're trying to determine if he has the vote 0, if it matters that he's self-voting. Considering its a thing Eden seems to be using to try determine whether townread or scumread him.

[Rumi Tobari]

Player's nametags were mystery to them until they asked to peek, right?

Would the best town play be to hold off from peeking until late in the game, especially if the driver is still around? Probably sounds elementary to the rest of you but I am trying to get my head around this.

This is also missing some context addressed multiple times during the course of the game. From my perspective, more then a few of us seemed to either have not read the namtag setup, or didn't fully understand what we read and had to amend our impressions as the game went on.

I think it wasn't until Day 3 that we realized that the bus driver did a three person tag swap instead of a passenger to passenger swap.

Also correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't not-peeking anti-town, because town has nothing to worry about when peeking, but scum has to worry about the oracle?

[Hamilton Brian]

This all builds to...
3. I believe we should have Vecna vote on his own solo-wagon today, and if he still has the 2-vote, then we can assume he started with it and is likely mafia, because the driver should have stolen it from him last night.

There are a few more mental notes I've made during this analysis, but a few of them would be anti-town to share as they pertain to other PR situations.

Rumi, here's the post I was thinking of when I was talking about the self-voting. Maybe I misunderstood it, but then I can see how it's not necessarily a way of townsorting.

[Hamilton Brian]

Also correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't not-peeking anti-town, because town has nothing to worry about when peeking, but scum has to worry about the oracle?

No idea about the oracle. I didn't see a description of what that role is.

I just have this convoluted idea that...bear with me, this is where I get cyclical in my thinking/writing: someone peeks early, knows they have the bomb, they don't want to let that be known until driver is dead, right? They want to avoid getting it swapped so they can still control its play.

I don't know, nevermind. This is where I get ahead of myself because the thinking isn't clear. I think I am looking at it like something that it isn't.

[President Eden]

##VOTE Vecna

[Rumi Tobari]

This all builds to...
3. I believe we should have Vecna vote on his own solo-wagon today, and if he still has the 2-vote, then we can assume he started with it and is likely mafia, because the driver should have stolen it from him last night.

There are a few more mental notes I've made during this analysis, but a few of them would be anti-town to share as they pertain to other PR situations.

Rumi, here's the post I was thinking of when I was talking about the self-voting. Maybe I misunderstood it, but then I can see how it's not necessarily a way of townsorting.

What I was mentioning as self-voting being anti-town was sometime during D2. Also...

You do know that worcej was conclusviely proven to have the vote0 during EoD2, right? There's an ongoing belief that he still has it and that mafia has not attempted to move it off him.

The current impression is that if worsej still has the vote0, he's town, but if he doesn't, it means he's scum and scum put it onto another townie. I think that's what Eden's going for at least?

[Chaqa]

This all builds to...
3. I believe we should have Vecna vote on his own solo-wagon today, and if he still has the 2-vote, then we can assume he started with it and is likely mafia, because the driver should have stolen it from him last night.

There are a few more mental notes I've made during this analysis, but a few of them would be anti-town to share as they pertain to other PR situations.

Rumi, here's the post I was thinking of when I was talking about the self-voting. Maybe I misunderstood it, but then I can see how it's not necessarily a way of townsorting.

This tactic was specifically for Vecna and I'm not even sure it's necessary now, because I think I've accidentally proven Vecna never had the 2-vote lol

[Hamilton Brian]

I made the mistake of referring to the bot for vote analysis instead of Demon's posts.

[Chaqa]

##VOTE Vecna

Hold off on final judgements til after I do mafia shit at lunch, I'm onto something

[President Eden]

This all builds to...
3. I believe we should have Vecna vote on his own solo-wagon today, and if he still has the 2-vote, then we can assume he started with it and is likely mafia, because the driver should have stolen it from him last night.

There are a few more mental notes I've made during this analysis, but a few of them would be anti-town to share as they pertain to other PR situations.

Rumi, here's the post I was thinking of when I was talking about the self-voting. Maybe I misunderstood it, but then I can see how it's not necessarily a way of townsorting.

What I was mentioning as self-voting being anti-town was sometime during D2. Also...

You do know that worcej was conclusviely proven to have the vote0 during EoD2, right? There's an ongoing belief that he still has it and that mafia has not attempted to move it off him.

The current impression is that if worsej still has the vote0, he's town, but if he doesn't, it means he's scum and scum put it onto another townie. I think that's what Eden's going for at least?

Not quite. If he has the no-vote still, he’s town. If he has a vote, several things could explain it, not all of which require him to be guilty.

[Hamilton Brian]

The current impression is that if worsej still has the vote0, he's town, but if he doesn't, it means he's scum and scum put it onto another townie. I think that's what Eden's going for at least?

Why would that mean Worcej is scum if he doesn't have the 0vote?

[President Eden]

##VOTE Vecna

Hold off on final judgements til after I do mafia shit at lunch, I'm onto something

Not like I’m going to magically find a drive to power through this brief and ignore the game all day lol.

[Rumi Tobari]

##VOTE Vecna

Hold off on final judgements til after I do mafia shit at lunch, I'm onto something

I kind of agree here. I know Jamie said "Kill Vecna" both at EoN and 20 hours before EoN, but I'm not seeing what he saw, and you seemed more inclined to believe HB.

I'm willing to change my view on HB as just being mostly something with how Neon played, but I'm hoping for an explanation here to help me understand.