MAFIA 75: TROUBLE AT THE PRECINCT [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

All those +1s and nobody voted for him

I +1 everything

[Bonatogether]

i want to kill hb today

[President Eden]

I’m poring over Chaqa’s analysis again, I kind of want to watch rdr and celaph square off for a bit without steering the discussion.

[President Eden]

It is really hard to work anything definitive out about the double voter without knowing who the Doctor is and what they did, but we aren’t pressed hard enough to warrant outing that right now. It’s worth noting that we could be at KILO tomorrow; although it would be 6-3 (assuming a miss today and no doc save tonight), the mafia could have the double voter and the town could have the no voter, making it 5-4 in practice. For this reason, I think everyone who has not peeked yet should peek as close to EON4 as you can afford, and everyone should out their info D5 unless I say otherwise below. Ideally you should peek right at xx:59 so that if you’re a PR and accidentally Oracle yourself, the mafia won’t know it and be able to act. (Sorry if this makes a mess for you Demon!) Our Doctor should probably also out EON4 with info. The Bleeder is self-confirming and survives a nightkill, so doesn’t need to out until D5.

The big thing that we need to ensure in the meantime is that nobody fucks up worcej’s vanity wagon. Like, messing with it is a scumclaim kind of “nobody fucks with worcej’s vanity wagon.” worcej still having the no-vote would essentially town clear him, and worcej having a vote would at least be interesting if nothing else… wouldn’t damn him per se, but would require some investigation. We don’t need to vote worcej out here because his situation is so close to self-sorting, so anybody attempting to interfere with that should be presumed to have bad intentions and dealt with accordingly. DO NOT FUCK THIS UP.

Contrary to Chaqa’s earlier conclusion, I’m not sure that Vecna needs to vanity wagon here, or that anyone else does. I’m open to being overridden on this if anyone can think of a good reason, though.

[ghug]

I think we need to kill Eden.

[celaph]

On reread I still can’t find anything towny in Princess Neon despite their apparent mid-D2 confusion. Bo and Bona have highlighted a lot of her scummines.

As for HB:

So Rumi, if you think I am scum, I suggest you get together with Bo. The two of you have put together something akin to a case. The issue I have with it is that it is based on my predecessor. Don't hold me responsible for what they said. We all say stupid shit. Judge me on my play from when I entered the game.

As you wish. Also, you fill Neon’s slot nicely in asking for clean slates for subs.

Presumably you’ve read the reasons that people are scumreading you even if they are for your past slot. Do you agree with their criticisms or does anyone’s feel forced? Anything scummy that you see in Rumi and Bo’s reads in particular?

THings that stand out based on D1 reads part 1.

Bona really seemed to employ a sense of Byz meta as scum to call them out on it; was in it with PEden. Both really seemed to drive that train, as far as I can see right now. I think it would be a large problem for the scum team to bus THAT hard unless they felt confident that the other wagon would happen, which…it did. As of this reading, those two are high town.

RDR had a relatively weak D1; they came out with an appreciation for the new players. Given that we know Byz was mafia, does this imply anything? Not really, but then chose to just drop the vote on Jamie instead of making a firm commitment to one of the top wagons, one of which was mafia. I get the time for activity is different and usually catches Rivera during the work day. Still…meh? Not scum, but not nearly town enough.

I agree on your take about Bona and PE here and don’t mind the take on rdr.

D1 Reads Cont:
Celaph:
Early validation with Byz; wound up on the damo wagon (not good). Day 1 isn’t the insightful, inquisitive, dot-connector that I’ve come to view Celap as. Meh.

Chaqa:
Town points to chaqa for the vote to put Byz tied with damo, and also for the hammer. I don’t like the hammers, but I can rationalize this one because of the confidence AND because of the eventual scum flip. Posting content…blech; combination of shitposts and minimal digging. Again, town points for that D1 vote, but I need N1 and beyond before I am willing to drop him in with Eden and Bona. This is especially since the vote was after Eden’s. What’s it mean? Maybe not much in the long run.

Vecna:
Bona to Damo, Damo to Byz, then Byz to Damo for the townkill and the scumsave. Shades Rivera; that seems to almost be the most “challenging” Vecna is toward anyone throughout D1.

Bo:
Interesting passage from bo regarding their final vote after moving off of Rumi: “The degree to which Chaqa and Jamie are following each other around like lost children is intriguing to me and I think they should both be wagons ##VOTE Chaqa” I say I didn’t notice such a relationship when reading Chaqa, so this seems to be making something up just to cast a vote. Which was an inconsequential vote. Most intense dialogue between bo and anyone else was with darg. Not sure how relevant that is. Darg is dead, bo isn’t. I hope reading their N1 and D2 opens up some more.

Jamie:
The professed cop. Points for being on the Byz wagon, I think Eden followed up to make it more competitive. I think Jamie relishes the D1 shitposting more than anyone else. However, other town credit can be gained through the encouragement of the vanity voters to consolidate.

You’re reads on Chaqa and I suggest that you read more than simply EoD1. At the same time, you make no mention of how the rest of the day affects your read on anyone else? Why is that? Also, there is no sense in trying to give Jamie town points for D1 voting when he’s a claimed cop. Feels like this was written with completion in mind, not trying to solve the game.

2nd guessing myself here.

Vecna, what's inspiring this sudden burst of activity and return to the game?

What's the worst part of the D1 vote, in your opinion, beyond the point that Town was killed, and not Byz?

What’s making you second guess yourself? Given your first question it seems like you found some of Vecna’s contributions to be towny. Is that the case and if so why?

Also, what a weird second question.

There's some real Monday-morning-QB-triumphantilism going on here. Just remember a bunch of you all made the wrong choice two days in a row.

I find it notable that you called us wrong in this way. If you were finding the push on you scummy, you’d have surely called that out instead of just saying that people were wrong.

I would bet my life on the fact that there are low-optic players that are trying to go long as mafia. Conversely, there are probably some that are playing such an active role that they're going to go deep because of a strong townread.

So for everyone, let's take the mechanics out of the equation. Pretend they don't exist. Where's your vote lie RIGHT THIS VERY MINUTE? And would you hammer it if it?

“My teammates are under the radar right now. Try to catch them instead of killing me.”?

##vote HB
I don’t get the sense that HB trying to sort people even with the limited amount of information he has. I also get the consistent vibe that he is talking to town instead of as one of town.

[celaph]

So, I got thinking about the no-vote/double-vote mechanics, and here's what I've concluded:

1. worcej most likely has the zero-vote still, and if he indeed still has it after today, he is as close to confirmed town as you can be without actually being confirmed. Mafia just wouldn't let their team miss out on a vote. Day 2, with worcej still maintaining the zero-vote (due to his 0-wagon D3 vote we know he always had it). They would have swapped it off of him on Night 2 if he was mafia.

I agree with your analysis that a worcej who still has the 0-vote still is town indicative. Not sure how you are concluding that he still has the zero-vote still though. We know he had it on D2, but on D3 he was on the Snowy wagon with everyone except Bo, rdr, and Vecna.

2. The pool of people who could have had the 2-vote tag originally was: Sabi, celaph, dargo, Byz/Snowy, ghug, Vecna. I believe the 2-vote tag did not move on Night 1:

Sabi claimed the Deathbomb, and I believe them, so the drive didn't move it.

If celaph had the 2-vote tag to start, he would have had to lose it on Night 1. We know that the bus driver and nightkill are accounted for, as is the cop scan, so the only way this happened is if the Doctor took the 2-vote tag from celaph, which I don't find likely.

Where do you get that I would have had to lose the 2-vote tag N1? I was on the wagon with the 2-vote tag D2.

If Dargo started with the 2-vote, it would have wound up with Neon following floristry. Given Neon was not on the wagon with the 2-vote, Dargo did not start with it.

Byz/Snowy starting with the 2-vote tag would be interesting. Snowy was the Godfather, and we need to think about the implications of that. He had the Elliot Ness tag, which means he likely *did* swap tags with someone at some point.

Are you assuming that the GF didn't start with the inno tag? I assumed that the tags were distributed randomly.

I also posit that no mafia member has peeked their tag, which means this likely happened unknowingly or riskily. If Snowy did indeed start with the 2-vote tag, he couldn't have lost it on Night 1, unless the Doctor visited him, which I find unlikely. This fits the 2-vote's location on Day 2. If Snowy started with the tag, he specifically would have had to lose it on Night 2, and I believe to Bus Driver shenanigans. Since he *isn't* the driver, he either received the Elliot Ness tag from the driver, or he gave his tag to the driver. This would *have* to be either Rivera or Vecna. If we have them both peek, we can probably determine the tag situation.

If ghug had the 2-vote, then on Night 2 when Jamie visited him, Jamie would have taken it. On Day 3, the 2-vote was not on the snowy wagon, which means on Day 3 either rivera, Vecna, or snowy had the 2-vote tag.

Vecna also is likely to have started with it, and mafia probably suspects this as well, given the D3 vote. I kinda think Vecna had it and lost it and we'll see that reflected today after the vote count is modified.

This all builds to...
3. I believe we should have Vecna vote on his own solo-wagon today, and if he still has the 2-vote, then we can assume he started with it and is likely mafia, because the driver should have stolen it from him last night.

There are a few more mental notes I've made during this analysis, but a few of them would be anti-town to share as they pertain to other PR situations.

If you think that worcej still had the 0 vote last night, then Vecna didn't have the 2 vote because you need the 2 vote to get the 9 on Snowy. I agree that Vecna having the 2-vote would be suspicious, but more from the lens of him getting it last night than from a lens of him having it D3 and not having it stolen.

I'm also, just not convinced that we should be trying to find the 2-vote. If we find it we have to guess whether mafia put it there intentionally while we have verified it's location for the mafia to take.

[celaph]

Did Jamie leave any indication who he was scanning last night? If he did, we can determine where he got his death tag from

Presumably he got his nametag from either mafia NK or doctor.

Though I think a N3 Vecna scan was most likely as that best explains Jamie's EoN comment.

[Rumi Tobari]

Did Jamie leave any indication who he was scanning last night? If he did, we can determine where he got his death tag from

Presumably he got his nametag from either mafia NK or doctor.

Though I think a N3 Vecna scan was most likely as that best explains Jamie's EoN comment.

It explains that, sure, but I'm still kind of confused why Jamie was advocating we kill Vecna 20 hours before EoN.

Was there something Jamie noticed that we're not?

[celaph]

I think HB might be town now.

What do you townread in HB?

[celaph]

Did Jamie leave any indication who he was scanning last night? If he did, we can determine where he got his death tag from

Presumably he got his nametag from either mafia NK or doctor.

Though I think a N3 Vecna scan was most likely as that best explains Jamie's EoN comment.

It explains that, sure, but I'm still kind of confused why Jamie was advocating we kill Vecna 20 hours before EoN.

Was there something Jamie noticed that we're not?

Jamie doesn't share any great reason for Vecna that I can see.

[celaph]

No actually, if I make people reread your reasoning for suddenly jumping onto Byz after it started getting some traction, im quite sure people might feel the same way as I do.

It was a very articulate post to vote there. Very detailed. Not like you randomly voting like that at all.

I feel like Bona's scum Byz read had a very clearly defined origin.

For whatever reason, this entire fucking post strikes me as scummy. I can explain it, because I am a townsperson. I do not oversell myself because that's no bueno.

Actually I'm gonna ##vote Byz

for me, the 'agreeableness is vaguely scummy' and especially the 'i am pretty good at these feel reads' set off a ton of alarm bells - what about it makes you like it?

i've played with byz before (he was scum and won at lylo) and this somewhat reminds me of that

And was a read that persisted while his vote was on Bo.

byz cause scum

byz is complex. i have not completed a game with him where he was town, so i have no idea of his meta. as scum though, he successfully powerwolfed to win in f3. probably indicative of the fact that he is usually some kind of town leader as town? not sure about that. in this game, his posts really grate on me in a way that's hard for me to view as town. other people (rdr) have said they like him for the exact posts that make me suspicious, so i figure we need to devote some more brainpower to him.

invalid and poorly reasoned vote

All told his eventual collapse off of the meme Bo wagon and onto the actual Byz wagon feels incredibly natural to me. What am I missing? Why is this random?

[celaph]

I do have to admit (after rereading your D1), your D1 trajectory on Byz definately was not a last minute bus.

If youre scum, you did set that shit up pretty nicely.

Would you be so ballsy to go hard and deep on your GF right from the start?

Does the line "(after rereading your D1)" mean to imply that your posts about Bona on the previous page were made before you reread his D1?

[celaph]

What do people make of Vecna deferring to the popular opinion on Bona and Chaqa?

He's posted some explanation of his reads on them so it's not like he's using it as an opportunity to just avoid sharing his takes. And I can only really see him doing this as scum if he's fine with the wagons we are pushing at the moment. Then again, if we do have scum Vecna, he's already been playing go with the flow so this is nothing new.

[celaph]

@chaqa, what's your reason for scumreading rdr? You've been scumread the slot for a while without really elaborating.

[celaph]

Aside from the lack of well explained reads, I feel like Chaqa's been towny today. His interest and belief that the game is almost solvable feels genuine. And while his comments have been wrong at times, they don't feel malicious. Like, this doesn't feel like scum Chaqa hoping that the bleeder would out themselves even though scum Chaqa would make such a post.

If the Bleeder is one of the more suspected players, should they claim?

[celaph]

I really dislike Celaph post about me, because he totally ignored Snowy tried to have me as his counterwagon.

And just because I don't post a lot or long walls this doesn't mean I am not paying attention to the game.

You’ve claimed that Snowy wanted you to be his CW, but that’s just patently not true.

Because I was the counter Snowy want? He was shadowing me since he entered the game. He was lucky his AoE worked and Sabi reacted in a weird way. Snowy would never got me killed D2.

You were never THE counter that Snowy wanted. At times you were a counter that Snowy was fine with, but even then you were just one name on a long list. There were other people who received similar or worse shading from Snowy and you’re making no attempt to read into any of that.

N1 Snowy’s only mention of Rdr is a question to Jamie about Rdr’s EoD1 behavior. There is no shading here.

I'm not at EoD1 yet so what do you think this implies about rdrivera and the wagons, that he did not make this attempt?

Almost half way through D2, he naked votes rdr. Given his previous naked votes on myself and Rumi and his next vote being a meekly explained vote on ghug, nothing here suggests he is calling you out in particular.

About 90 minutes later he switched his vote to ghug, while also listing another 5 people he might consider wagoning.

##vote ghug I guess

He seems a smudgeon too pleased with the current game state which he shouldn't be by his own stated positions (I mean nobody should be but regardless)

My next best guesses are celaph, rdrivera, bo, vecna and pyxxy

The Vecna votes happened a goodly 4-6 hours ago. At the time, one might contend (still easily can) that the celaph/bo slots are far more absent (excl rivera who is a vec voter). What distinguished Vecna from the rest? Do you recall any evidence to believe that, say, rdrivera and Jamiet was inclined to vote there?

He continued to shade you for inactivity, though your name was among Bo and mine. He also asked Pyxxy about Jamie and your reasons for voting Vecna. The third Vecna voter, ghug, was who snowy was already voting for.

The Vecna votes happened a goodly 4-6 hours ago. At the time, one might contend (still easily can) that the celaph/bo slots are far more absent (excl rivera who is a vec voter). What distinguished Vecna from the rest? Do you recall any evidence to believe that, say, rdrivera and Jamiet was inclined to vote there?

Skipping ahead to Snowy long post towards EoD, he has one line about rdr that he leaves in the middle of a tangent about Vecna. It does support your claim that he continually shaded you, but I don’t think that anyone read that post and thought that Snowy was scumreading you when he spent way more time talking about Neon, Vecna, and Sabi.

3) Where did rdrivera come from? Kinda weird

That’s supported by your placement as third scummiest in his reads list afterwards with Neon and Sabi taking spots 1 and 2. I think you can legitimately point towards his second vote on you being questionable. Why was the wagon on Neon not to his liking so he would leave for a wagon he scum reads less supposedly?

But he then proceeded to work against you as a CW in the last half hour while building a new CW on Sabi.

Nobody agreed to this and rdrivera is like top 5 worst people to take with me

He's good at the game

I skipped one interaction between you two because you’ve called special attention to it.

There's two people who haven't voted yet
Could also slap rdrivera on there too but if I were to vote him it's not because he's lurking

This post is really interesting. You set three people to be a possible counterwagon without any specific reason.

I called him on shading me and setting counterwagons and he just ignored and voted me without any reasoning as soon as I become a wagon. Should have trusted my instincts and voted him but I fell for the bomb bullshit.

Your explanation here is horribly reductive. He was setting up counterwagons on 5 people -- you, Bo and I who hadn’t voted, and Sabi and Neon who he mentioned in a previous post. You’re right to call out his vote for you as suspicious, but it’s wrong to then leave out the rest of his actions as he pushed back against you as his counterwagon in the end.

[celaph]

@Eden - I like your post but really dislike the colors.

I think I would put Chaqa in blue and Celaph in red but we it’s a small change. Abd I am glad someone is reading my posts....

Tell me about celaph in red… Chaqa in blue I understand

The game I remember most Celaph as town was one we went to kilo together (I was Mafia) and he played an really great (I won but just because I have an almost perfect voting record, but he was so solid on his analysis I almost lost). This game I don't see that level of reasoning. I see some big wall posts with not much to add. I see a push on me that's based on nothing and that only appeared D2 as he was townreading me D1. I see a willingness to save Byx D1 and Snowy D2. This is more reasons to scumread him then I have to scumread Vecna to be honest.

I was easiest to townread when rdr was scum. Remarkable.

My push on you wasn't based on nothing. I justified my vote along with it.

More so, I was curious how rdr would respond because I prefer him to a ghug wagon. Jamie did a great post on rdr here:

To add to that, I feel like rdr's reaction to ghug's creation of the Vecna wagon was really inauthentic. On pg 177 he lists ghug and Vecna simply as two people that haven't impressed him alongside Bo and Snowy. The next page he votes Vecna saying that ghug could be bussing him before only later posting a scumread on Vecna, one with no connection to ghug.

If rdr had that legitimate scumread on Vecna before his vote, why didn't he speak to that scumread with his vote? And given that his scumread has nothing to do with ghug, why does he initially move to implicate ghug alongside Vecna? His initial vote reads as someone with an agenda to which he only later crafted a justification to fit.

##vote rdr

You're right that I scumread you on D2 way more than on D1. Guess what? You were scummier on D2 than you were on D1.

[celaph]

I’m poring over Chaqa’s analysis again, I kind of want to watch rdr and celaph square off for a bit without steering the discussion.

You might get what you want. My concern is that I can see compelling narratives where town rdr acts this anti-town.

[Chaqa]

— snipped —

I had a lot of trouble keeping numbers straight… let me redo this analysis tomorrow lol