MAFIA 75: TROUBLE AT THE PRECINCT [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

Yeah, I don’t want to hammer either. Still too many unknowns to pass up info.

On that note I’m gonna go back to lurking and letting the unknowns speak.

[worcej]

I guess the answer is obvious

##vote Chaqa

that fucking pretending-to-be-doc thing is way too cute

Does the fact he already pretended to have my tag influence you at all?

[Chaqa]

Is there some detail im actually missing?

Y'all are talking like there is some other outted scum or w/e.

I feel the same way right now with the HB wagon. Besides my early take on Neon, what changed?

So, here's where I'm at with it:
1. Mafia knew Sabi claimed Deathbomb
2. Presumably, Sabi was truthing
3. Mafia would want the Deathbomb on one of their own
4. Neon and Sabi were swapped
5. Therefore, either the driver pushed the bomb ONTO Neon, or the driver pushed Neon's tag onto Sabi and the bombtag onto themself.

I don't see much reason for the mafia team to choose town!Neon to swap Sabi with, unless they wanted to place suspicion on Neon.

[worcej]

its actually pretty annoying that its probably optimal play to misskill me after that Jamiet statement, because there is no way im ever eating a NK, and this shit is just going to be looming for the rest of the game, dividing town votes.

im a fucking liability now

This is too defeatist to me…

[President Eden]

Is there some detail im actually missing?

Y'all are talking like there is some other outted scum or w/e.

I feel the same way right now with the HB wagon. Besides my early take on Neon, what changed?

So, here's where I'm at with it:
1. Mafia knew Sabi claimed Deathbomb
2. Presumably, Sabi was truthing
3. Mafia would want the Deathbomb on one of their own
4. Neon and Sabi were swapped
5. Therefore, either the driver pushed the bomb ONTO Neon, or the driver pushed Neon's tag onto Sabi and the bombtag onto themself.

I don't see much reason for the mafia team to choose town!Neon to swap Sabi with, unless they wanted to place suspicion on Neon.

I think we can be reasonably confident that the mafia team wouldn’t push the bomb onto Neon and allow someone to yank it back. The only way this theory works out in any case is if the mafia got lucky as hell and happened to kill the Florist who had swiped the bomb from Neon.

That said, worth asking why the mafia team would have chosen Neon as the other passenger, since theoretically anybody would do.

[President Eden]

At any rate, Chaqa looks super townie even ignoring he claimed Doctor.

Bona is out here actually hunting and again, unless he’s hard busing his team, what even is he doing.

I’m town because my PM says so.

Hail the Tridumbverate.

[worcej]

we can stay here instead of killing vec

One question, since I don't know any of you very well.

Since we're so sure Neon/HB is scum, why was Jamie so insistent that we kill Vecna if he died?

+1 to this. I don't believe Jamie could have scanned Vecna, so I'm tending to just ignore him as he's done this before and been dead wrong.

Plus, ignoring him would be 10/10 troll

My thought was Jaime was telegraphing who he was scanning.

[President Eden]

One question, since I don't know any of you very well.

Since we're so sure Neon/HB is scum, why was Jamie so insistent that we kill Vecna if he died?

+1 to this. I don't believe Jamie could have scanned Vecna, so I'm tending to just ignore him as he's done this before and been dead wrong.

Plus, ignoring him would be 10/10 troll

My thought was Jaime was telegraphing who he was scanning.

That’s an interesting thought. If that’s what happened, then Jamie got Vecna’s tag before dying, and Vecna got Jamie’s. Then, the killer took Vecna’s tag back, and Jamie died with the killer’s tag.

[worcej]

So, I got thinking about the no-vote/double-vote mechanics, and here's what I've concluded:
1. worcej most likely has the zero-vote still, and if he indeed still has it after today, he is as close to confirmed town as you can be without actually being confirmed. Mafia just wouldn't let their team miss out on a vote. Day 2, with worcej still maintaining the zero-vote (due to his 0-wagon D3 vote we know he always had it). They would have swapped it off of him on Night 2 if he was mafia.

2. The pool of people who could have had the 2-vote tag originally was: Sabi, celaph, dargo, Byz/Snowy, ghug, Vecna. I believe the 2-vote tag did not move on Night 1:

Sabi claimed the Deathbomb, and I believe them, so the drive didn't move it.

If celaph had the 2-vote tag to start, he would have had to lose it on Night 1. We know that the bus driver and nightkill are accounted for, as is the cop scan, so the only way this happened is if the Doctor took the 2-vote tag from celaph, which I don't find likely.

If Dargo started with the 2-vote, it would have wound up with Neon following floristry. Given Neon was not on the wagon with the 2-vote, Dargo did not start with it.

Byz/Snowy starting with the 2-vote tag would be interesting. Snowy was the Godfather, and we need to think about the implications of that. He had the Elliot Ness tag, which means he likely *did* swap tags with someone at some point. I also posit that no mafia member has peeked their tag, which means this likely happened unknowingly or riskily. If Snowy did indeed start with the 2-vote tag, he couldn't have lost it on Night 1, unless the Doctor visited him, which I find unlikely. This fits the 2-vote's location on Day 2. If Snowy started with the tag, he specifically would have had to lose it on Night 2, and I believe to Bus Driver shenanigans. Since he *isn't* the driver, he either received the Elliot Ness tag from the driver, or he gave his tag to the driver. This would *have* to be either Rivera or Vecna. If we have them both peek, we can probably determine the tag situation.

If ghug had the 2-vote, then on Night 2 when Jamie visited him, Jamie would have taken it. On Day 3, the 2-vote was not on the snowy wagon, which means on Day 3 either rivera, Vecna, or snowy had the 2-vote tag.

Vecna also is likely to have started with it, and mafia probably suspects this as well, given the D3 vote. I kinda think Vecna had it and lost it and we'll see that reflected today after the vote count is modified.

This all builds to...
3. I believe we should have Vecna vote on his own solo-wagon today, and if he still has the 2-vote, then we can assume he started with it and is likely mafia, because the driver should have stolen it from him last night.

There are a few more mental notes I've made during this analysis, but a few of them would be anti-town to share as they pertain to other PR situations.

Gut reaction is I follow this logic.

[worcej]

I've got a pretty good system to figure out who is who and who did what with a bit more information.

Do you have a list of peek claims?

Chaqa peeked and saw no-vot—up, wait, awwwwwww


Neon claimed a vanilla tag D2 but to my knowledge not the exact tag.
I claim, today, Axel Foley (vanilla) from N1 peek.
Sabi claimed deathbomb tag N1. Unclear when peeked, probably N1.
Vecna claimed John McClane N2 after a claimed D2 peek.

That’s all I remember

For formalities, I peeked early D2

[worcej]

If we aren’t massclaiming peeks then the only thing I really got is that we should make worcej and Vecna pick their own vanity wagons to confirm that worcej is still the no voter and Vecna is not the double voter

##vote worcej

Lol…

[Chaqa]

One question, since I don't know any of you very well.

Since we're so sure Neon/HB is scum, why was Jamie so insistent that we kill Vecna if he died?

+1 to this. I don't believe Jamie could have scanned Vecna, so I'm tending to just ignore him as he's done this before and been dead wrong.

Plus, ignoring him would be 10/10 troll

My thought was Jaime was telegraphing who he was scanning.

In a game where it’s dreadfully important to know these things, I wish he was more clear. Let me check his other posts, maybe he left us clues

[Rumi Tobari]

+1 to this. I don't believe Jamie could have scanned Vecna, so I'm tending to just ignore him as he's done this before and been dead wrong.

Plus, ignoring him would be 10/10 troll

My thought was Jaime was telegraphing who he was scanning.

In a game where it’s dreadfully important to know these things, I wish he was more clear. Let me check his other posts, maybe he left us clues

Welll...

DAYKILL
VECNA
TOMORROW

You will NOT regret it.

If I die kill Vecna.

What I'm wondering about is why he was he was that we should kill Vecna over 20 hours before EON, which I think also came before Vecna memeclaimed bus driver.

[worcej]

My thought was Jaime was telegraphing who he was scanning.

In a game where it’s dreadfully important to know these things, I wish he was more clear. Let me check his other posts, maybe he left us clues

Welll...

DAYKILL
VECNA
TOMORROW

You will NOT regret it.

If I die kill Vecna.

What I'm wondering about is why he was he was that we should kill Vecna over 20 hours before EON, which I think also came before Vecna memeclaimed bus driver.

Man. Did he actually scan ghug? Lol

[Chaqa]

Was he even the Cop

[Hamilton Brian]

PM from Demon says that NeonBrian peeked on Day 2 and learned that we are Harry Callahan (Vanilla).

[Hamilton Brian]

Can someone who knows Snowy better tell me if that's just empty flattery, or was this an attempt to encourage me to build a wagon on a townie!Chaqa? (or an attempt to convince me to build a wagon that could be used to discredit me later?)

Did the encouragement work? It's a tactic but I don't remember a game where Snowy has been mafia. If he were actually town here I'd say he was being complimentary. Even being mafia he may have still been complimentary.

[ghug]

I'm pretty sure the super-town group (Eden, Bona, me, ghug, Rumi) will hammer, so is anyone else alpha enough to help us out?

What have I done that makes you think I'll hammer Brian?

[Hamilton Brian]

I am going to mess up that block quote but that's a pretty cringey post from Vecna about checking the driver's license. Why'd they say that?

[ghug]

Oh god we have two PRs left??? Lol

I would think Bleeder a relatively safe claim if they’re under suspicion, but up to them.

Only claim when you have to.