MAFIA 75: TROUBLE AT THE PRECINCT [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

Mafia could have easily moved it or taken it for themselves last night, so no?

I actually have a post I'm working on about this.

[Hamilton Brian]

That’s going to be pretty shittty to hammer and drop 6-3. I’d still look at a pool of Vecna, Worcej, Rivera as counters. Chaqa possibly.

[Rumi Tobari]

I believe we should hammer Hamilton just before the phase shift time. I'll throw mine in to get momentum going.

##END

If we’re gonna runaway wagon this on HB instead of having multiple options and actually gaining something useful today beyond the flip, we should hammer and do it quickly so maybe people are less likely to be completely disinterested after 5 real life days of doing nothing instead of 6.5 like we’ll have if we runaway on HB but don’t hammer.

The best thing to do is still to have an option to flip HB but not to make it so certain if we actually want useful info.

Actually, I am honestly willing to seek more discussion on who the rest of the scumteam might be before just saying "lets kill HB because scum". And my reasoning remains the same, I don't understand the game too well, but I understand that nametags are still a thing and am concerned about what effect bus driver could have on them.

Someone, feel free to correct me if the answer to this is "not that much" and I'll take the plunge and hammer. But if we solve the whole scumteam, we can pick one or the other two and have a 50-50 shot at killing the bus driver. I'm assuming that since Jamie is dead, that the strongman is out of play, because I can't imagine a world in which the doctor wouldn't try to save our cop, so other than scum slowly bleeding us via Nks, bus driver is the most worrying thing on the scumteam right now?

I don't know, the more I type, the more I feel like there's some logical fallacy in what I"m saying that I"m missing. Someone help me out with a correction on everything I'm wrong about maybe?

[Rumi Tobari]

That’s going to be pretty shittty to hammer and drop 6-3. I’d still look at a pool of Vecna, Worcej, Rivera as counters. Chaqa possibly.

Another thing I'm not sure if potentially AI or not, but when Snowy was (probably) trying to pocket me with all his empty engagement and flattery, he said that I was the "best player in the lobby" (on me suspecting Chaqa for the contradiction on his peek timing)

Can someone who knows Snowy better tell me if that's just empty flattery, or was this an attempt to encourage me to build a wagon on a townie!Chaqa? (or an attempt to convince me to build a wagon that could be used to discredit me later?)

[Hamilton Brian]

Think there needs to be an alternative to my unvote. ##Vote Chaqa. It’s a tossup and me throwing poo.

[President Eden]

i c

vec’s insistence that you were busing byz + abject refusal to vote byz really stuck with me

only scum care about consistency

First off, not actually true, but more importantly, not the point. If you thought Bona was busing Byz then how come you didn’t vote Byz D1 when you could have killed him? I’m asking this over and over because you haven’t given a good answer to it yet.

~~~

also, mostly for posterity and not expecting any response (what even would there be), but this dude totally claimed bus driver:

Hello dear Bona

are we friends

let me take a peek....

it says on my drivers license that im allowed to operate large vehicles.

would you like some candy?

[President Eden]

That’s going to be pretty shittty to hammer and drop 6-3. I’d still look at a pool of Vecna, Worcej, Rivera as counters. Chaqa possibly.

Another thing I'm not sure if potentially AI or not, but when Snowy was (probably) trying to pocket me with all his empty engagement and flattery, he said that I was the "best player in the lobby" (on me suspecting Chaqa for the contradiction on his peek timing)

Can someone who knows Snowy better tell me if that's just empty flattery, or was this an attempt to encourage me to build a wagon on a townie!Chaqa? (or an attempt to convince me to build a wagon that could be used to discredit me later?)

He was probably being genuinely encouraging of your efforts as a brand new player trying to put in the effort to learn the game properly. snowy can be a jerk sometimes, but he genuinely relishes the role of teaching earnest new people without ego hangups. That said, I doubt it can reasonably be sorted out whether his specific encouragement of you to kill Chaqa means anything or not.

[President Eden]

That’s going to be pretty shittty to hammer and drop 6-3. I’d still look at a pool of Vecna, Worcej, Rivera as counters. Chaqa possibly.

Another thing I'm not sure if potentially AI or not, but when Snowy was (probably) trying to pocket me with all his empty engagement and flattery, he said that I was the "best player in the lobby" (on me suspecting Chaqa for the contradiction on his peek timing)

Can someone who knows Snowy better tell me if that's just empty flattery, or was this an attempt to encourage me to build a wagon on a townie!Chaqa? (or an attempt to convince me to build a wagon that could be used to discredit me later?)

He was probably being genuinely encouraging of your efforts as a brand new player trying to put in the effort to learn the game properly. snowy can be a jerk sometimes, but he genuinely relishes the role of teaching earnest new people without ego hangups. That said, I doubt it can reasonably be sorted out whether his specific encouragement of you to kill Chaqa means anything or not.

[President Eden]

Fuck off phone

[Rumi Tobari]

also, mostly for posterity and not expecting any response (what even would there be), but this dude totally claimed bus driver:

are we friends

let me take a peek....

it says on my drivers license that im allowed to operate large vehicles.

would you like some candy?

Is this actually a claim? At this point I'm having a little difficulty telling the difference between serious, memes, and shitposting, and I kind of read this as more memes and shitposting.

[President Eden]

also, mostly for posterity and not expecting any response (what even would there be), but this dude totally claimed bus driver:

let me take a peek....

it says on my drivers license that im allowed to operate large vehicles.

would you like some candy?

Is this actually a claim? At this point I'm having a little difficulty telling the difference between serious, memes, and shitposting, and I kind of read this as more memes and shitposting.

oh Vec was clearly shitposting there, but I wouldn’t put it past him to be cheeky and actually hint at being the bus driver in his shitposting

[Chaqa]

So, I got thinking about the no-vote/double-vote mechanics, and here's what I've concluded:
1. worcej most likely has the zero-vote still, and if he indeed still has it after today, he is as close to confirmed town as you can be without actually being confirmed. Mafia just wouldn't let their team miss out on a vote. Day 2, with worcej still maintaining the zero-vote (due to his 0-wagon D3 vote we know he always had it). They would have swapped it off of him on Night 2 if he was mafia.

2. The pool of people who could have had the 2-vote tag originally was: Sabi, celaph, dargo, Byz/Snowy, ghug, Vecna. I believe the 2-vote tag did not move on Night 1:

Sabi claimed the Deathbomb, and I believe them, so the drive didn't move it.

If celaph had the 2-vote tag to start, he would have had to lose it on Night 1. We know that the bus driver and nightkill are accounted for, as is the cop scan, so the only way this happened is if the Doctor took the 2-vote tag from celaph, which I don't find likely.

If Dargo started with the 2-vote, it would have wound up with Neon following floristry. Given Neon was not on the wagon with the 2-vote, Dargo did not start with it.

Byz/Snowy starting with the 2-vote tag would be interesting. Snowy was the Godfather, and we need to think about the implications of that. He had the Elliot Ness tag, which means he likely *did* swap tags with someone at some point. I also posit that no mafia member has peeked their tag, which means this likely happened unknowingly or riskily. If Snowy did indeed start with the 2-vote tag, he couldn't have lost it on Night 1, unless the Doctor visited him, which I find unlikely. This fits the 2-vote's location on Day 2. If Snowy started with the tag, he specifically would have had to lose it on Night 2, and I believe to Bus Driver shenanigans. Since he *isn't* the driver, he either received the Elliot Ness tag from the driver, or he gave his tag to the driver. This would *have* to be either Rivera or Vecna. If we have them both peek, we can probably determine the tag situation.

If ghug had the 2-vote, then on Night 2 when Jamie visited him, Jamie would have taken it. On Day 3, the 2-vote was not on the snowy wagon, which means on Day 3 either rivera, Vecna, or snowy had the 2-vote tag.

Vecna also is likely to have started with it, and mafia probably suspects this as well, given the D3 vote. I kinda think Vecna had it and lost it and we'll see that reflected today after the vote count is modified.

This all builds to...
3. I believe we should have Vecna vote on his own solo-wagon today, and if he still has the 2-vote, then we can assume he started with it and is likely mafia, because the driver should have stolen it from him last night.

There are a few more mental notes I've made during this analysis, but a few of them would be anti-town to share as they pertain to other PR situations.

[Chaqa]

That’s going to be pretty shittty to hammer and drop 6-3. I’d still look at a pool of Vecna, Worcej, Rivera as counters. Chaqa possibly.

I understand it's unfortunate. If it's any consolation, I would like to set up today that in case you have the deathbomb, we blow up someone else.

[President Eden]

If we’re gonna runaway wagon this on HB instead of having multiple options and actually gaining something useful today beyond the flip, we should hammer and do it quickly so maybe people are less likely to be completely disinterested after 5 real life days of doing nothing instead of 6.5 like we’ll have if we runaway on HB but don’t hammer.

The best thing to do is still to have an option to flip HB but not to make it so certain if we actually want useful info.

I agree with Bo here. If we’re actually all sure that Hamilton Neon is mafia then we should just get it over with and not waste time pretending to deliberate between options we aren’t really considering. Not hammering increases apathy by wasting town’s time, and it’s also disrespecting Brian’s time by pretending to give him a chance when we really aren’t.

But, I don’t actually know that we all think Brian is mafia, so I don’t want to just bully people into voting him off and learn nothing else for the day.

Hence I am NOT hammering right now.

[Chaqa]

Think there needs to be an alternative to my unvote. ##Vote Chaqa. It’s a tossup and me throwing poo.

Can you remind me when your slot peeked and the result?

[rdrivera2005]

only scum care about consistency

This is true. I am starting to fear I am wrong about Vecna and that we have some deep scum.

I really dislike Celaph post about me, because he totally ignored Snowy tried to have me as his counterwagon.

And just because I don't post a lot or long walls this doesn't mean I am not paying attention to the game.

who would the deep scum be?

This is the million dollars question. I would say Chaqa who is flying under radar based on pushing Byz/Snowy but have won based on hard bussing before.

I think Celaph is scum, but won't call him deep.

[Chaqa]

also, mostly for posterity and not expecting any response (what even would there be), but this dude totally claimed bus driver:

Is this actually a claim? At this point I'm having a little difficulty telling the difference between serious, memes, and shitposting, and I kind of read this as more memes and shitposting.

oh Vec was clearly shitposting there, but I wouldn’t put it past him to be cheeky and actually hint at being the bus driver in his shitposting

If Vecna is the Driver, then Snowy started with the 2-vote tag.

I do not believe it is mechanically possible for Snowy to have started with the 2-vote tag, unless the doctor took it on Night 1.

[President Eden]

@Chaqa — skimmed it, still processing. Does your analysis account for the fact that Vecna claimed the John McClane tag when he allegedly peeked d2?

[Chaqa]

If we’re gonna runaway wagon this on HB instead of having multiple options and actually gaining something useful today beyond the flip, we should hammer and do it quickly so maybe people are less likely to be completely disinterested after 5 real life days of doing nothing instead of 6.5 like we’ll have if we runaway on HB but don’t hammer.

The best thing to do is still to have an option to flip HB but not to make it so certain if we actually want useful info.

I agree with Bo here. If we’re actually all sure that Hamilton Neon is mafia then we should just get it over with and not waste time pretending to deliberate between options we aren’t really considering. Not hammering increases apathy by wasting town’s time, and it’s also disrespecting Brian’s time by pretending to give him a chance when we really aren’t.

But, I don’t actually know that we all think Brian is mafia, so I don’t want to just bully people into voting him off and learn nothing else for the day.

Hence I am NOT hammering right now.

This is the exact same thing we did with Snowy, you know.

[President Eden]

Also, how does it account for the likely behaviors of town and mafia in reaction to you claiming the no vote tag earlier?