MAFIA 75: TROUBLE AT THE PRECINCT [HIDDEN]

[celaph]

Reviewing rdr's contributions from N2-now I don't feel a desire to solve the game, but rather an obligation to keep playing.

When he went back to review the D1 votes, he purely gave points based on where they ended up with no additional analysis. Particularly egregious when he makes no attempt to read anything from Vecna from his votes.

I think Snowy played really well getting a miskill D2.

Looking D1 votes close to EOD, Chaqa get some town points for putting Byz tied with Damo.

Worcej get some scum points for putting Damo tied with Byz again when Damo wagon was losing momentum.

Rumi gets more town points for his vote.

If Ghug wasn't clear I would be pushing him to death.

And Vecna get a big question mark.

When Eden called out rdr's earlier avoidance of reading him, he entirely ignored Eden's primary concern and just responded to the other part

I really like this post. Not so sure about Eden as I don't read him well, but many townie points to Byz

this post is really sticking in my craw. getting it wrong on Byz is one thing, but I have never seen rdrivera demur on reading me. it just screams “I’m going to back my guy, but not commit to a position I might need to walk back later” to me.

If I was scum with Byz I would have bussed him hard. Go find a game where I openly defend a scumpartner.

Anyway, don't worry with me, go find the other 3 scum...

When making comments about his wagon, he resorted to a blanket celaph/worcej are getting scummier. There is no analysis here, no attempt to post anything besides the minimum of what's tolerable.

Worcej is going down fast on my townreads. His willingness to park a vote on me when I was the counter to Snowy also makes me suspect him. Same is valid for Celaph but I don't think both are scum, probably just one.

And he showed little interest in his votes today such that it feels like he is entirely just going through the motions.


Nothing recent I see from rdr feels towny. There is no desire to solve the game. The only thing that gives me pause is that while I expect town rdr to be doing much better than this I also expect scum rdr to be doing better. Perhaps we just have the scum team dead to rights (rdr, HB, Vecna perhaps?), but it also makes me worry that something out of game is interfering with play.

[Rumi Tobari]

she was saying defensiveness is normal for her; if it helps, add this semicolon:

“Defensiveness is well within my meta as scum and town; it is highly NAI.”

that said, I very much did not like her progression in that conversation (which I think I called out)… but not knowing her, I wasn’t sure if it was just a personality clash or actually scummy. I think especially after snowByz flipped scum, I am just going with my gut reaction that no one would really act in that bad of faith without a bad faith agenda and assume scummy.

Thank you. That actually clarifies the meaning alot and I misunderstood what she was saying becauuse of hte lack of semicolon.

Also, this is a point I found to be somewhat suspicious? I'm not sure I want to say "bad faith" because I'm not sure I fully understand what "bad faith" means in mafia contexts

Don't listen. Making shit up as town is garbage. Keep playing your game.

It's an easy lie. For Sabi it's an easy lie to try to explain their attempt to start a wagon on themself. It's an easy lie as a vanilla town as well to draw attention from the mafia away from your PRs and onto yourself in a role that's arguably less important

For Snowy it's an easy lie to try to freeze town off his wagon at least those that fear that there's a chance of making a grave mistake killing the deathbomb. It's an easy lie to push a new narrative and get a mislim onto Sabi especially a Sabi that's clearly unmotivated and overworked by multiple games who's likely pushback is going to be weaker than say... the other wagon Snowy tried to start which was on me.

But maybe from my perspective this feels kind of bad faith? She went from telling me not to listen to Snowy's insistence that I make up a stance and roll with it to explaining / kind of justifying why Snowy or Sabi would lie.

Similarly to how she flipflops on lying as town, she did the same with Snowy

I think we should give snowy an independent chance to prove the nature of their own slot and not base the reads on the slot on another player who was admittedly busy and clearly overwhelmed by the activity and expectations in this game and unready to balance it with other commitments.

I will certainly take the play of Byz in when reading Snowy but I just don't want us to come in already having decided on the slots guilt.

And like I said during N1, these feel like similar things, but they aren't. And seem to be another example of her flip-flopping on her views.

In the first quote, she's stating "Snowy will not be judged on Byz's actions."
But in the second quote she's saying "Byz's actions will be taken into account"

I don't know if this kind of constant opinion flipflopping is AI, but she did it enough that I find it pretty suspicious. And she did seem pretty concerned about if Sabi flipped innocent, whether I would always view her slot as scum.
##vote Hamilton

[celaph]

current: 9 townies v 3 mafia
N3: presumably Jamie gets strongman killed, 8v3
D4: miss #1, 7v3
N4: presume either ghug or an obvtown gets killed and Doc guesses wrong, 6v3
D5: miss #2, 5v3
N5: presume either ghug or an obvtown gets killed and Doc guesses wrong, 4v3
D6 to infinity: LYLO

We have two misses left right now. If the deathbomb hits a mafia or the Doc saves someone, we still have two misses but we get a more favorable outcome (more clears or a free mafia kill). The deathbomb can be one of our misses, so caution is still advisable, especially as we no longer have any idea where it is.

Worst case scenario is that today is kilo. It's 8v3 in people, but possibly 7v4 in votes. If we kill 2 townies with deathbomb then the votes could reach 4v4 starting tomorrow. Unlikely? Yes. But let's just make sure we're killing scum.

[President Eden]

current: 9 townies v 3 mafia
N3: presumably Jamie gets strongman killed, 8v3
D4: miss #1, 7v3
N4: presume either ghug or an obvtown gets killed and Doc guesses wrong, 6v3
D5: miss #2, 5v3
N5: presume either ghug or an obvtown gets killed and Doc guesses wrong, 4v3
D6 to infinity: LYLO

We have two misses left right now. If the deathbomb hits a mafia or the Doc saves someone, we still have two misses but we get a more favorable outcome (more clears or a free mafia kill). The deathbomb can be one of our misses, so caution is still advisable, especially as we no longer have any idea where it is.

Worst case scenario is that today is kilo. It's 8v3 in people, but possibly 7v4 in votes. If we kill 2 townies with deathbomb then the votes could reach 4v4 starting tomorrow. Unlikely? Yes. But let's just make sure we're killing scum.

oh shit you’re absolutely right lol

that’s terrifying

[celaph]

Can anyone think of any benefit of me peeking? It seems like the risk of hitting the oracle isn't worth knowing my predeath tag, but maybe knowing would help sus things out in the eventual massclaim. Also I want to.

Peek + claim at EoN?

[celaph]

@celaph — thanks for adding to the post; does the nightkill switch tags?

Yes.
Though I feel like you’re just joking here.

Weird that you know this since the Info Doc doesn’t say

Updating PE's mech post given that

GM NOTE

Yes, the NK is a visit, and the performing member will trade nametags with the intended victim at that stage of the execution of night orders.

...

[President Eden]

@Rumi — in context, when I say someone is arguing in bad faith in mafia, what I mean is that I don’t believe they believe what they’re saying. That can come from townies just locked in an ego battle and refusing to acknowledge where they’re wrong, but an obvious reason why someone might insincerely argue a position or stance is that they are mafia and have an agenda-driven need to fabricate some authentic-seeming reason to pivot their stance, so they exaggerate or overplay a natural reaction to something to have a reason to move.

I feel that Neon’s “trying to deal with Rumi’s AtE” post is a good example, with the caveat that I guess Neon isn’t flipped yet lol.

[Rumi Tobari]

Nothing recent I see from rdr feels towny. There is no desire to solve the game. The only thing that gives me pause is that while I expect town rdr to be doing much better than this I also expect scum rdr to be doing better. Perhaps we just have the scum team dead to rights (rdr, HB, Vecna perhaps?), but it also makes me worry that something out of game is interfering with play.

I honestly am pretty reasonably convinced at this point that HB is scum (assuming Neon's inconsistency on her viewpoints and stances isn't some kind of normal thing I'm not aware of), but I'm willing to entertain the idea of a different DK if we can solve the rest of the scumteam, because we know from N1 that HB can't be the bus driver.

[President Eden]

Yes.
Though I feel like you’re just joking here.

Weird that you know this since the Info Doc doesn’t say

Updating PE's mech post given that

GM NOTE

Yes, the NK is a visit, and the performing member will trade nametags with the intended victim at that stage of the execution of night orders.

...

hjonk hjonk am clown

[ghug]

Can anyone think of any benefit of me peeking? It seems like the risk of hitting the oracle isn't worth knowing my predeath tag, but maybe knowing would help sus things out in the eventual massclaim. Also I want to.

Peek + claim at EoN?

But then whoever kills me knows they got the Oracle if that's what happens.

[President Eden]

my debate at this point is that

1) speedrunning Brian with no nighthammers knowing that the mafia is probably going to just strongman Jamie + duel the Doc over ghug is just begging for midgame apathy

but

2) Neon hella sus

You are actually a caricature of your own brain PE

it’s worked so far!!

[celaph]

I think Snowy played really well getting a miskill D2.

Looking D1 votes close to EOD, Chaqa get some town points for putting Byz tied with Damo.

Worcej get some scum points for putting Damo tied with Byz again when Damo wagon was losing momentum.

Rumi gets more town points for his vote.

If Ghug wasn't clear I would be pushing him to death.

And Vecna get a big question mark.

Dont tell me Ghug is actually clear

ghug is copscanned and the gf is dead, although i suppose the 'read as clear' tag is still out there

SNOWY801 has DIED! They were ELLIOT NESS the GODFATHER! (VACANT)

Rules Doc:
ELLIOT NESS (Innocent Scan)

ghug is conftown.

[celaph]

Can anyone think of any benefit of me peeking? It seems like the risk of hitting the oracle isn't worth knowing my predeath tag, but maybe knowing would help sus things out in the eventual massclaim. Also I want to.

Peek + claim at EoN?

But then whoever kills me knows they got the Oracle if that's what happens.

Fair point.

[celaph]

Nothing recent I see from rdr feels towny. There is no desire to solve the game. The only thing that gives me pause is that while I expect town rdr to be doing much better than this I also expect scum rdr to be doing better. Perhaps we just have the scum team dead to rights (rdr, HB, Vecna perhaps?), but it also makes me worry that something out of game is interfering with play.

I honestly am pretty reasonably convinced at this point that HB is scum (assuming Neon's inconsistency on her viewpoints and stances isn't some kind of normal thing I'm not aware of), but I'm willing to entertain the idea of a different DK if we can solve the rest of the scumteam, because we know from N1 that HB can't be the bus driver.

I commented on rdr because a number of their posts struck me as quite superficial. My gut says you're probably right here though.

[Vecna]

i c

vec’s insistence that you were busing byz + abject refusal to vote byz really stuck with me

only scum care about consistency

[rdrivera2005]

i c

vec’s insistence that you were busing byz + abject refusal to vote byz really stuck with me

only scum care about consistency

This is true. I am starting to fear I am wrong about Vecna and that we have some deep scum.

I really dislike Celaph post about me, because he totally ignored Snowy tried to have me as his counterwagon.

And just because I don't post a lot or long walls this doesn't mean I am not paying attention to the game.

[Bonatogether]

alright time to grade your work

post number #3 claiming strange solving methods. so far: 0 posts actually using such methods.

Questionable interpretation of that post, but good on you for pointing out no solving via such methods beyond the game’s easiest read (Rumi town).

yeah that was a big hangup of mine for a while.

maybe that’s why sabi was in an antitunnel

I think you might need to revisit SIMP analysis

we already knew that sabi was the biggest simp

aware some people actually play like this but this shit is convenient

With you here. Notable that this came at night (when snowy had just joined, no doubt made an impression in scum chat, and left the team feeling like maybe he could do something with it), and the reluctant pivot onto snowy came the next day (when snowy’s death appeared inevitable and Neon would need to commit to something).

feel like reading progessions on snobyz could be useful

there’s a period from late d1 through n1 that’s backing off of the toob. there’s several posts like this (notably eden calls her dismissive of rumi and there’s a back and forth), but the reasoning isn’t very convincing at all - no connection to why the toob would do this as scum and not just as confused new town, especially, as is highlighting in the post i quote, that same pattern of behavior was used to justify calling the toob ‘lock town’. this finally culminates in a d2 vote

I’m biased as hell here but 100% agree. That specific post really rankled me at the time, though I think I let it go and didn’t press there because I was already arguing with Neon about other stuff. Rumi was transparently not engaging in “AtE” as the mafia community uses it (meaning laying on emotion for the sake of getting an in-game advantage) and was clearly genuinely upset about what was happening. This felt like a cynical withdrawal of support because Rumi was pushing on Neon.

yeah this is essentially my interpretation of what neon was thinking

she did the shit with the name tag confusion

Well that’s just town indicative

its an important thing to have, especially since a fair amount of people townread her over it

after the weird leave snowy to do their own thing, ignore byz n all. i slapped a bus emoji on this at the time like a champ
seriously though, tell me this doesn’t read like a bus

Reviewing that after snowy flipped I felt some pride that in my old age at least my son could carry on the mantle of hunting mafia

it's pretty cool

i’m skipping the rest

i award your essay an A

bruh you skipped the bit about HB

[Hamilton Brian]

Imagine waking up to fond out that I am lead wagon. I've been in this position as town before so ...let's see how it goes. I don't want to think about the math and looking at it going 8-3, and I am not sure how much time I need to spend refuting the arguments against ME that are based on my predecessor.

[Hamilton Brian]

oh shit the shrooms man can't keep his story straight. zero progression between high town with eden and just one reason away from hardscum (still says im bussing byz) for context, vecna was doing similar stuff at the same time in thread.

he also asked for this post so here it is


in conclusion im right

I appreciate that you employed self-defecating. If you were a student of mine I'd praise you for your demonstration of listening and employing details.

I think you are glossing over the fact that as I read through the opinions I carry shift in any direction. Should be naturally understandable and a pass for anyone getting dropped into the game.

[Bonatogether]

oh shit the shrooms man can't keep his story straight. zero progression between high town with eden and just one reason away from hardscum (still says im bussing byz) for context, vecna was doing similar stuff at the same time in thread.

he also asked for this post so here it is


in conclusion im right

I appreciate that you employed self-defecating. If you were a student of mine I'd praise you for your demonstration of listening and employing details.

I think you are glossing over the fact that as I read through the opinions I carry shift in any direction. Should be naturally understandable and a pass for anyone getting dropped into the game.

can you elaborate on what actually drove this change, though?