MAFIA 75: TROUBLE AT THE PRECINCT [HIDDEN]

[Jamiet99uk]

Honestly Jamie just go away and let the grown-ups play the game. I don't feel like dealing with your toxic bullshit right now.

I'm not being toxic.

You're having a hissy fit about something related to disabilities that I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT.

If I accidentally offended you, then I'm sorry, but I have no idea what the fuck you are shouting about, so forgive me, because I wasn't aware.

[Chaqa]

What if we voted him out

[snowy801]

That's not a trick question I really don't know what's going on in your noggins here

If you trust nobody but Jamiet, think he knows how to analyze the game, and he has clear reads for you to follow, and you have no other clue on what's going on

...why aren't you just following his lead?

[Jamiet99uk]

What if we voted him out

Who?

If you mean me, hold your fire because I genuinely don't even know why Ghug is so offended.

[Bonatogether]

Let's get into the meat of the matter.

So last night when I was being cyberbullied by pyxxy and contemplating death (in a video game) I figured well shit looks fucked and disobeyed the first tenet of mafia: don't act out of impulse and told RHK I wanted to peek

And that's the story of how I learned that I am Alex Murphy, the Deathabomber

After my initial round of lmaaaaos to god qt though I got to actually thinking, why do I have this? Sure it could just be coincidence, weirder shit has happened in mafia, but if I compare the probability of me just happening to start out with this card, or even generously assuming some PR visited me (which appear on intuition to be equivalent chances at 1/17?) vs the idea that either Sabi spoke the truth (appearing more likely given this 24h phase's comments) or one of the scum members had one on them and planted it on me (like 5/17? don't check my math that's not the point) you start going hmm right?

Because let's be honest the prevailing mood of N1 was not looking good for lil ole snowy, and if ever there was a "surefire" bomb to be fired off it'd be today, yeah? Bonus points if this scum team is someone who doesn't know me well, to be sure. I mean, how's a new player to know that I can't be miskilled.

But then you get to further thinking: ok now bomb is planted. What do we do with it? Well, you kill Snowy, and then get the 2nd highest wagon to be someone else who you'd want to take out.

If you look at yesterday's progression until I had my high seat rants it was almost entirely "vote snowy" or "let's shop around until we vote for snowy" right? I mean sure there was a loud minority worcej screaming Eden scum and ghug was strangely standing up for me (more on that later) but like there were 4 people parked on me and like 3 more people being like "yeah snowy's probably scum but I'll vote him later"

Enter interest points #1 and #2

At 4 Snowy votes, we see endhammer 1 come in from Sabi. Unexplained, but didn't read much into it. Eden votes me and unendhammers, saying he'll be busy putting it at 6, and then comes Neon with the steel chair

viewtopic.php?p=309077#p309077

[for the record I do not know at this point I am Zed Gaczynski]

Why does this comment happen? It's interesting, because Neon has not shown much interest in the thread prior to this and spends most of it shitposting, and then comes in with that slam dunk attempt. What motivates such a post? There's no original ideas in there, they just parrot things other people have been floating around at that point (oh snowy's caught scum, he's shitposting, not trying his best) and then decide lil miss "I have mysterious ways of scum hunting beyond your mere comprehension" decides the best way to spend day 2 is to just hammer me and not do anything else of note. Evidence: next post is about gacha game and there are no further posts, despite me knowing for sure they were online for significant spurts afterwards.

And you know, the death bomber. Why would you even suspect that? I didn't, until I literally peeked. Like who just thinks "I'm going to vote for this guy but I'm scared he has the death bomb"

Oh wait, Sabi does
viewtopic.php?p=309353#p309353

Let's go on a tangent here about Vecna. Now if I were scum in any given game and Vecna wasn't on my team I'd be 1) extremely sad and 2) be looking to kill him off at first notice. Which is why I'm extremely suspicious of the emergent wagon on me since
1) I now believe I've been planted a bomb and scum knows that
2) I don't see any reason to scum read Vecna, and so this whole operation seems opportunistic (though I do remember that one game where bozo clowned on us as obvscum and ghug very explicitly said something like "he [vecna]'s never going to give you a slam dunk scum read so you just have to take a leap of faith" and can see a perspective where he's doing just that
3) Where did rdrivera come from? Kinda weird

I'm kind of off this train of thought now since I've felt better about ghug since I've caught up + recent interactions + other thoughts but something to think about: why Vecna?

Anyway moving on, so Neon right. I mean to repeat, prevailing sentiment was that I was as close to a slam dunk as we're going to get, and it does look like that as said sentiment was crystalizing into something solid, Neon wanted to drive it home and get the planned d2 objective right?

On that note as bona catching up sees Neon's post and just slaps a on it which I gave big town points for because damn does that look like a bus. Not to deter your poor attempts at fatherhood or anything Eden

---

And then we wake up this morning to see some very interesting reactions (I know I included some morning posts already sue me)

In particular, some people are very vocal about Neon being a major wagon. Most of those people (Jamiet and Sabi in particular) are equally vocal about my being scum. Now I don't particularly see Jamiet as being scum, as if he is he's playing better than I would ever have expected of him.

But Sabi you know, went from hard town reading Byz by trying to explain how towny they were, and then backtracking and saying they don't think he's towny at all just want to give a free d1 pass to a new invitee (perfectly reasonable, but why not say so instead of making up reasons to make him look townier than you believed?)

And then same slot they're like "yeah get snowy what a scumbag" and later goes like "well I might've been just doing that cause I'm upset at the damo flip" (?????)

Something something natural progressions. Also I'm not going to quote any of this but I can dig it up if your goldfish memories fails to remember any of this happening so feel burdened to ask

Now they're terrified that Neon is the counter wagon because they're paranoid that I might have a bomb (lucky guess I'm sure) and wants ghug, then bona, but can't give reasons why they scum read any of them nor why they hard town Neon except vague handwaving at "if you read her posts you'd know" or "the vanilla card!!!"

On the vanilla card thing as the premiere expert on all things mafia that is not a hard town tell. I suppose I should be glad it's only Jamiet and Sabi saying such nonsense

There's a lot more to be said and I imagine I'll be saying them soon but for now I want to cut it off here since I guess the most important part of this post is that I have the bomb which other people have no reasonable way of knowing.

Sad thing is I could entirely see town Sabi doing all this because to them people I like = town and people I dislike = scum, but eh I'd put my foot down on this

tl;dr vote Prius for best value car
P.S. the mafiauniverse revolution and its consequences has been devastating to not using buzzwords in lieu of actual thought

if this is true it makes me think sabi is way more town on condition we could be getting psyopped (hard defense of neon lines up with this post's interpretation)

im majorly reconsidering if snowy is actually scum, but because i'm pretty sure the deathbomb is leaked and the mafia can juggle it around ad infinitum we should just hit the big red button and see what happens - killing him isn't terriblr, removing the deathbomb is a net positive, and potentially killing neon is also nice

[pyxxy]

Can you give more thoughts on the implications of snowy's peek claim?

"Can you give more thoughts on the implications of snowy's peek claim?"

You're too kind, buttering me up like this.

I think the problem with it is that it's too believable. I believe that scum would put the Deathbomb (aka Sabi's D1 nametag) onto Snowy, I think that's a reasonable play. I think that Snowy rings true when saying he has it.

But has he really peeked? Not if he's scum, I wouldn't think so, especially when I believe him saying that it's bad mafia-play to be impulsive like that. That's sort of the weird part for me.

Snowy peeking for strategic purposes? 100% checks out. Snowy peeking on impulse? That doesn't line up with what I've heard about him.

@Snowy, when exactly did you peek and when did you read the pm saying that you have the Deathbomb tag? I want to re-read your posts with this context of knowing that you knew your tag.

[Jamiet99uk]

That's not a trick question I really don't know what's going on in your noggins here

If you trust nobody but Jamiet, think he knows how to analyze the game, and he has clear reads for you to follow, and you have no other clue on what's going on

...why aren't you just following his lead?

I AGREE

[snowy801]

That's not a trick question I really don't know what's going on in your noggins here

If you trust nobody but Jamiet, think he knows how to analyze the game, and he has clear reads for you to follow, and you have no other clue on what's going on

...why aren't you just following his lead?

I AGREE

What do you make of Rumi's reticence to commit, despite them repeatedly claiming over the past day (or possibly two) that you're the only one they trust and view you in high regard?

[Bonatogether]

Why might mafia Sabi truthfully out being the deathbomb on n1?

to let their scummates ask this question

[snowy801]

Can you give more thoughts on the implications of snowy's peek claim?

"Can you give more thoughts on the implications of snowy's peek claim?"

You're too kind, buttering me up like this.

I think the problem with it is that it's too believable. I believe that scum would put the Deathbomb (aka Sabi's D1 nametag) onto Snowy, I think that's a reasonable play. I think that Snowy rings true when saying he has it.

But has he really peeked? Not if he's scum, I wouldn't think so, especially when I believe him saying that it's bad mafia-play to be impulsive like that. That's sort of the weird part for me.

Snowy peeking for strategic purposes? 100% checks out. Snowy peeking on impulse? That doesn't line up with what I've heard about him.

@Snowy, when exactly did you peek and when did you read the pm saying that you have the Deathbomb tag? I want to re-read your posts with this context of knowing that you knew your tag.

I kind of said it in the post but it was like 8ish last night? And I was told instantly (based RHK) so there's no gap in timing there

[Rumi Tobari]

Oh hey Rumi how you doing you haven't said much recently.

Gave you plenty of things to form an opinion on. Still... Ruminating?

My server host shuffled the storage location of my webradio files and I had to reload most of the playlists so I've been busy for the past few hours.

I have no opinions. All of this is subjective to me. Its a huge jumble of he said/she said that I'm having difficulty making heads or tails of.

What are your first, unsorted subjective impressions of what's going on?

It feels most of the time like Neon is more interested in defending herself than solving the mystery.

It feels like Sabi is more interested in defending the people they invited than actually openingg themself to the possibility that they might be scum.

I feels like snowy could be town, or snowy could be scum just trying to confuse the narrative.

I think Chaqa is suspicious, but people ignored me when I pointed out a contracidction in Chaqa's testimony of when they peeked, so I assumed I'm just misreading it.

Jamie and Eden are helpful in explanations, but I don't particularly trust them and have no valid reason to feel this way.

Vecna and Bo are too inactive for me to have any real opinions.

I want to believe Celaph might be town, but I'm not sure.

No strong opinions of Ghug, but Ghug seems like he might be trying to solve things.

Same with Bona, my vote for Bona relies on others' experiennce with them.

I have no opinions of worcej

RL or no, I feel its weird that rdr can post from the car saying he's in the car, but not actually vote either way on the EOD tiebreak

Part of the problem it feels ot me like that everyone is basing their reads on previous knowledge of eachother. I have no familiarity with anyone here.

[Jamiet99uk]

Right I'm going back to the bar.

Ghug is either being deeply disingenuous, or I have inadvertently induced him for being disabled, which I did not realise he was. In the latter case I apologise.

Either way, Vote for Snowy or Ghug.

[Jamiet99uk]

Right I'm going back to the bar.

Ghug is either being deeply disingenuous, or I have inadvertently induced him for being disabled, which I did not realise he was. In the latter case I apologise.

Either way, Vote for Snowy or Ghug.

*insulted

[Rumi Tobari]

I legitiamtely don't trust anyone anymore at this point

[President Eden]

Why might mafia Sabi truthfully out being the deathbomb on n1?

to let their scummates ask this question

zzz

[pyxxy]

I kind of said it in the post but it was like 8ish last night? And I was told instantly (based RHK) so there's no gap in timing there

8ish your time? If you are feeling generous and can convert that into D2 time until EOD, you would be being very kind to me.

[Rumi Tobari]

I kind of said it in the post but it was like 8ish last night? And I was told instantly (based RHK) so there's no gap in timing there

8ish your time? If you are feeling generous and can convert that into D2 time until EOD, you would be being very kind to me.

Oh right. Pyx exists. I forgot about you Pyx when Snowy pressed me for opinions on everyone. I'm sorry.

[President Eden]

Ok I’ve read up to page 197.

Snowy and Ghug are scum.

Stay on Snowy. Do not vote Sabi or Neon.

I’ll check in once more if I can before EoD.

How do you reckon snowy is mafia after all that’s transpired today? I don’t think he’s incapable of doing what he’s done today as mafia but it’s >95% to come from town IMO

I kind of said it in the post but it was like 8ish last night? And I was told instantly (based RHK) so there’s no gap in timing there

8ish your time? If you are feeling generous and can convert that into D2 time until EOD, you would be being very kind to me.

8pm in his timezone is T-22h to EOD unless he’s traveling somewhere I don’t know about (possible)

[snowy801]

My server host shuffled the storage location of my webradio files and I had to reload most of the playlists so I've been busy for the past few hours.

I have no opinions. All of this is subjective to me. Its a huge jumble of he said/she said that I'm having difficulty making heads or tails of.

What are your first, unsorted subjective impressions of what's going on?

It feels most of the time like Neon is more interested in defending herself than solving the mystery.

It feels like Sabi is more interested in defending the people they invited than actually openingg themself to the possibility that they might be scum.

I feels like snowy could be town, or snowy could be scum just trying to confuse the narrative.

I think Chaqa is suspicious, but people ignored me when I pointed out a contracidction in Chaqa's testimony of when they peeked, so I assumed I'm just misreading it.

Jamie and Eden are helpful in explanations, but I don't particularly trust them and have no valid reason to feel this way.

Vecna and Bo are too inactive for me to have any real opinions.

I want to believe Celaph might be town, but I'm not sure.

No strong opinions of Ghug, but Ghug seems like he might be trying to solve things.

Same with Bona, my vote for Bona relies on others' experiennce with them.

I have no opinions of worcej

RL or no, I feel its weird that rdr can post from the car saying he's in the car, but not actually vote either way on the EOD tiebreak

Part of the problem it feels ot me like that everyone is basing their reads on previous knowledge of eachother. I have no familiarity with anyone here.

This is very good, thank you.

I always say that meta reads (i.e. basing their reads on previous knowledge) is a crutch for bad players and try to live up to those words, but I do concede I sometimes fall into the trap myself so I can see why this might be frustrating.

That being said, you do not need meta knowledge to sort out a game. People's baselines are similar enough that you can conjecture alignment based on what you perceive their motivations in a game are.

That said, based on what you said above could you group a few people (doesn't have to be everyone) who you perceive to be likely to be town, and another group likely to be scum? Some reasons why would be even better

[President Eden]

Also worth pointing out that snowy was uncharacteristically but understandably in his feelings about the game at the time he claimed to peek, so that’s not inconsistent with him simply making a decision on impulse