War, what is it good for?

[Octavious]

As the war continues to rumble enthusiastically onwards, it is worth a look at how European public opinion stands regarding the conflict.

https://ecfr.eu/publication/peace-versu ... n-ukraine/

One imagines Putin will be reassured by a lot of the above.

[Octavious]

So, a quick summary of where we are so far:

Russian has taken the entirety of Luhansk, a substantial land bridge to Crimea, and is advancing slowly but steadily through the remaining Ukrainian held areas of Donetsk.

The Ukrainian military is on life support, kept able to fight only by western supplies.

Western sanctions are failing. Russia is now running an unprecedented 20% surplus and the rouble is at an 8 year high against the euro. The West has fallen into a cost of living crisis with the prospect of things getting really grim if Putin hits us with an energy crisis over winter.

France has a lame duck president, Italy has fallen into yet another political crisis, the UK is rudderless, Germany has an unprecedented lack of vision, and the US is being led by what increasingly resembles a care in the community initiative.

Over the next period of weeks Russia will take the remaining strongholds of the Donbas region, and offer terms from a position of strength. If we accept them it will be a humiliating admission of defeat. If we don't, God help us.

[Octavious]

Some more recent developments as reported by veteran UK journalist, Andrew Neil



Russian state energy giant Gazprom declares force majeure on some of its gas supplies to Europe. Another step closer to Putin turning off the taps completely. Gazprom says it cannot fulfil its supply obligations because of “extraordinary” circumstances.



Surging energy prices in US causing steel and aluminium manufacturers to stop production. They are urging Biden to limit liquefied natural gas exports to Europe to lower energy prices. Europe needs the LNG to avoid freezing this winter.

[orathaic]

If we accept them it will be a humiliating admission of defeat. If we don't, God help us.

Why would we be able to accept terms? We are not at war.

[Octavious]

You're not an idiot, ora. It distresses me when you pretend to be one

[Jamiet99uk]

If we accept them it will be a humiliating admission of defeat. If we don't, God help us.

Why would we be able to accept terms? We are not at war.

Sure, the UK is not involved at all. We're barely aware that the conflict is taking place.

Come on.

[orathaic]

The Ukraine could he offered terms. And they will make a decision on whether to accept those terms. And the US is going to decide whether they should support Ukraine in whatever decision they make, or to screen them over and prove the Russia was right or invade, encouraging them to get ready for their next target.

Whether that is Poland, or Moldova, or further North is unclear. Maybe they will try to get troops into Kazakhstan if the situation there allows it...

But we don't actually have a say, we just get to decide whether we continue to offer aid and sanction Russia for what i think amounts to criminal war (not that we would hold the UK or US to the same standards, but to be clear, we should).

So my question remains, what do you think WE will be offered?

Russia: "if you stop giving arms to Ukraine we will keep trying to sell you oil and gas? And we will even pay you is you unfreeze our assets!"

[orathaic]

Feckin' typos. Why can't i edit my post?

[orathaic]

Further a far less pessimist view of the war: https://www.ft.com/content/84d79a0a-98b ... 7e76ca0391

[Octavious]

Far less pessimistic? Have you actually read it?

"[Ukraine has] heavy losses of up to 200 deaths a day"

"Russia’s military machine — grinding its way forward through intensive artillery bombardment — still has momentum"

"Oleksiy Melnyk, a former Ukrainian Air Force officer now at the Razumkov Centre think-tank in Kyiv, said not even heavy fortifications would withstand a Russian artillery barrage and aerial bombardment"

"Ukraine now needed to target Russian supply lines using long-range weapons, especially US-supplied multiple-launch rocket systems, known as Himars, said Melnyk. Only four have so far been deployed. Kyiv needs many more Himars to turn the tide of the war."

"As well as a shortage of artillery ammunition, Ukraine has multiple other weaknesses, including a lack of skilled infantry and armoured vehicles to conduct offensive operations, a shortage of secure radio equipment and an inability to detect and take out Russian electronic warfare capabilities"

I'm not seeing massive grounds for optimism there...

[Octavious]

So my question remains, what do you think WE will be offered?

I don't think that Russia will demand anything less than the Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea. Combined with a demilitarisation of Ukraine and effective end to the majority of Western sanctions. They will probably try to crowbar in a substantial demilitarisation of Eastern European NATO members as well. Russia will be in no great hurry to offer acceptable terms. Winter is coming and their leverage over Europe grows stronger with every month. If Italy falls to the Fratelli d'Italia, which is a distinct possibility, we're not in a good place.

[Jamiet99uk]

If Italy falls to the Fratelli d'Italia, which is a distinct possibility, we're not in a good place.

Is it a distinct possibility?

I agree we need to keep an eye on all fascists and neo-nazis, but these particular fascists are a small faction in Italy's parliament, despite some growth in membership. The highest they've ever polled in a national election was about 6% of the popular vote, I believe. What makes you feel they're on the verge of seizing power?

[Octavious]

The Beeb seems to think they have a decent chance

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62249051

As do various other political commentators who seem reliable in these areas. Hopefully they are wrong

[Jamiet99uk]

The Beeb seems to think they have a decent chance

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62249051

As do various other political commentators who seem reliable in these areas. Hopefully they are wrong

Yuck. I do indeed hope the Beeb is wrong. Fuck fascism.

[orathaic]

Russia has a manpower issue, and can't mobilise massively because they don't have the training infrastructure to do so.

Ukraine has a training issue but can send volunteers to Poland and other NATO countries to do crash course in specific aetillary systems and other weapons.

Russia is paying for ever bit of land they take, while Ukrainians behind their lines are begining a campaign of sabotage. Ukraine has promised to liberate Kherson presumably to discourage collaboration by the locals and to undermine Russian control (because without collaborators you can't effectively rule an area). So at the present it appears Russia has paused their offensive, while Ukraine is taking out the supplies and ammunition dumps.

I have seen several commentators say Ukraine gets stronger every day while Russia gets weaker.

There is no certainty, but i remain hopeful.

The other side is European unity, something most countries see is the strength and value of the EU when are significant threat appears, Putin has done more for Europe and NATO than anything in the last 30 years. I think we can manage a cost of living crisis, especially when there are Others to blame.

[Octavious]

European unity in action...

https://www.ft.com/content/bc68bae2-dba ... 1258c094e6

https://www.politico.eu/article/poland- ... ing-rules/

[Octavious]

I'm also not convinced that blaming Others will work in this case. A great number of people, whilst not viewing Russia in any sense as the good guys, will still perceive our involvement as a problem of our own making.

[orathaic]

Not wanting to be their next target makes it out fault? Interesting logic.

[Octavious]

Not wanting to be their next target makes it out fault? Interesting logic.

And you plucked this random nugget out of where, exactly?

[Octavious]

And, just for the sake of clarity, are you still attempting to maintain that wonderful piece of doublethink in which Russia is on the one hand a supposedly an inept nation suffering massive losses and on track to losing a war with the European backwater that is Ukraine, and yet at the same time is also a military colossus which poses a real and immediate threat of invasion to the most powerful military alliance the world has ever seen?

Do you even attempt to square this circle, or are you quite happy ignoring the contradiction?