M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

[damo666]

Damo's responses to questioning in the past few hours have been very sketchy

"Damo, what about these problems with your analysis?"
"Oh, I made a whole load of secret assumptions."

Yeah ok, time you were expelled from stats class.

##Vote Damo.

FFS Jamie they are not secret, they are simply unstated. They are derivable from the results. I'm stubbornly not listing them because nobody's taking it seriously anyway.

It's 2 of ABC and I think it's AB. It is not necessary to say I assume it's not C. That's an oversimplification but it's essentially the same.

That's significantly oversimplified. You presented this big wall of analysis whilst not properly showing your methodology, making unstated assumptions, as if you were doing real meaningful analysis. I am concerned that you were just trying to look like you were doing something meaningful and your tetchy responses to questioning doesn't help me feel good about you.

Ok ok. Am on mob. Will list when on laptop. But the long list is simply all possible triplets other then pairings I consider unlikely. These pairings are therefore easily derivable. E.g. you and Maniac.

The short list is after removing my town pool.

[damo666]

##end

This might be a good strategy actually.

Nah.

##unend

[damo666]

Weird Maniac showed up out of no where to end vote with damo


Hm.

Yeah that was weird. Maybe he's setting me up.

[damo666]

damo, what are your least likely pairings and why?

Will list my assumed non pairs when back on laptop. Mainly derived from voting with a smattering of in thread feel. They are not ranked .

[damo666]

Shall we speedwagon him?

I wouldn't go that far yet

Okay.

I can't move off Damo while Damo and Maniac are trying to hammer. You should move to Damo.

Hammer removed.

[damo666]

Rip aarodactyl

EOD was quiet and then pretty busy. Maybe we did put scum under pressure?

I assume people have talked about it, but Damo's Bona vote in the last 30 seconds is suspect. I can't really see town making that vote, but I'm not sure why scum would want to either. Just vote aaro and say no ties and make life easy.

I thought aaro more likely town than Bona. I was hoping someone would switch. At least I wasn't responsible for another miskill.

[damo666]

Rip aarodactyl

EOD was quiet and then pretty busy. Maybe we did put scum under pressure?

I assume people have talked about it, but Damo's Bona vote in the last 30 seconds is suspect. I can't really see town making that vote, but I'm not sure why scum would want to either. Just vote aaro and say no ties and make life easy.

My view is Damo didn't want aaro to die because the longer he can stave off resolution of D1 the better it is for scum. If he could have gotten a tie we come into today up a creek without paddle imo.

I was not seeking a tie. Scum damo would have ensured an aaro kill.

[damo666]

In general, he comes across as really confident that he is town.

His conclusions about Snowy, Maniac, and I being town for the way we moved our votes only really make sense in a world where he is town. And so the fact that Damo is reaching those conclusions should be a strong indicator that he is town.

Self-pres voting D1 with over 2 hours left should be a sign that someone sees themselves as worth keeping around by vote and draws attention to himself in ways that feel weird for scum to want.

End voting Bona with more than 24 hours left gives me similar levels of desperation vibes from the game I subbed in and killed him. It also looks bad.

Like, I can totally see scum Damo here (all of the above are also slightly scummy), but if so, he has actively chosen to do a bunch of openly weird and attention grabbing things that come off as slightly scummy. And that's just a really weird look for scum. So I'm not loving the kill there.

Finally someone with a bit of sense.

[damo666]

Try this again

##vote Kak

[damo666]

looking at D2 votes I find the following of interest:

5 minutes out Maniac voted Bona making it Bona 3 Kak 2 aaro 2 me 2

Subsequently DL moved from Kak to aaro and TFB moved from me to aaro.

Could either or both of these been to protect Bona?

I think Bona is the right kill for today. If he flips scum then strongly consider TFB next.

Could either of both of those given reasons in thread that lined up with their previous and later statements? Curious.

Try that again in English please.

Can anybody interpret Bona's response? He doesn't seem to want to explain.

[Jamiet99uk]

It would receive one 15,000 word essay every 36 hours.

Kak: 15000 words about prophecies and flavor

Celaph: Yeah, I agree. Sorry for being quiet, I'll be more active tomorrow.

You're promising to post more in the scum daychat?

Hmm.

[Jamiet99uk]

Well that was a waste of time.

Kill Kak or Sabi tomorrow, please.

was this out of frustration from how the game had gone or a genuine scumread? if the latter, how have your kak/sabi reads softened since then?

Frustration mostly. I don't suspect Sabi really any more.

[damo666]

Getting frustrated is easily done playing this game.

[damo666]

hi pyxxy

working on anything rn? what do you make of the way the damo/bona wagons coalesced today?

I've been reading the damo questioning and I'm not sure what to make of it.

Also not sure why Damo is trying to incite Bona to make a self-preservation vote against Kak?

At some point I started wondering if blatant self-preservation "I'm town I'm town get off me get off me" is just smart scum play if done consistently from D1.
---
Also mildly interesting that Bona has spent his time arguing with Damo but not addressing my posts scumreading him.

Granted I'm not sure there's much to respond to in my posts, since it's mostly "VCA makes me think you're sus, good luck refuting this argument".

i've been largely not responding to stuff that i can't directly comment on cause i've been dealing with a fair amount of stuff OOG

Consider subbing out then.

[Jamiet99uk]

Weird Maniac showed up out of no where to end vote with damo


Hm.

Yeah that was weird. Maybe he's setting me up.

Shall we kill him?

[Jamiet99uk]

Could either of both of those given reasons in thread that lined up with their previous and later statements? Curious.

Try that again in English please.

Can anybody interpret Bona's response? He doesn't seem to want to explain.

He reposted it with the errors corrected, go back and check.

[damo666]

Try that again in English please.

Can anybody interpret Bona's response? He doesn't seem to want to explain.

He reposted it with the errors corrected, go back and check.

Ok found it. I guess I have to reread EOD2

[damo666]

Weird Maniac showed up out of no where to end vote with damo


Hm.

Yeah that was weird. Maybe he's setting me up.

Shall we kill him?

I'm kind of 80% he would flip town. Can you reduce that %? How would his flip affect your thoughts on me (assuming I was on wagon)?

[celaph]

The towniest of towns:
DL — This man doesn’t have a scum bone in his body. Everything about his play is obvtown. Never kill him. I think he’s also a good person to listen to. For you sheep out there, here is your sheppard.
TFB — This guy looks quite towny on all counts. A little awkward at time, but towny. I think he looked good in the fight with Bona. I think his complaining about not killing Damo is very towny. But the reason here is near lock town is the way that he has verbalized his reads match quite well with how I am feeling in a way that I don’t think scum would be capable of. The way that the game is pushing me towards killing Damo so hard and yet something in my gut says that Damo is town.

Lean town:
Sabi — I think that their approach to highlighting key interactions and commenting on them has been good. I think that they were genuinely upset that Durga was killed. I understand the perspective from which they are approaching the game. They are uncertain about the scum in a way that feels natural.
Pyxxy — The day 1 arguments against Pyxxy were rather weak. I think that people were expecting a lot out of him when they shouldn’t have been. He has been comfortable calling attention to himself in a way that I don’t expect new scum to be. I think the way that he went back to read old games feels like town trying to figure stuff out and not sure how. I know I did it a fair amount my first game. I also don’t expect it to be the kind of advice that scum would tell Pyxxy to do.
Jamie — Jamie’s N1 felt very solvy. He went back through dragging up people’s comments and asking them questions. It doesn’t feel like he was trying to pocket aaro; the way he approached Snowy’s argument yesterday felt like the appropriate amount of skepticism. In the past couple games, I think that town Jamie got a lot of undue flak for playing within the range of scum Jamie. Don’t blame town Jamie for playing like scum Jamie, credit scum Jamie for playing like town Jamie. Setting aside all the Jamie stuff (e.g. pressuring lurkers), I still think his play is rather towny. See the way that he has drilled down into Damo’s statements.

Null:
Bona — I think that Bona’s play can be explained by regression to the mean. His last game was amazing, we should expect him to be worse this game, that’s how random fluctuations work. He has continued to “dunk” on people and tie wagons in typically town Bona fashion and we are all considering day killing him for it in typically town Bona fashion. My concern for Bona is that I can’t read him at all. He is probably the 1 mafia player that I can see taking that fight with TFB as scum.

Lean scum:
Damo — He’s done a bunch of things that make feel slightly scummy. But they all feel like things that are so obviously scummy that I’m not sure why any scum would ever do them. Why does he townread aaro because of his bad list? Why is he self-prey voting with 2:20 minutes left? Why is he clearing people for moving their votes off of him? Why did he PR hunt RDR and then call himself out on it? Why did he not state his assumptions? At the same time, as I wrote earlier, there is a fair sized list of reasons why Damo feels very town. In general, I am also worried about being wrong because he doesn’t fit the playstyle that I find easy to read.
Maniac — I don’t understand why he was getting so many town reads for the way that he townread the cws yesterday. He has otherwise done very little that is towny. His reasons for his votes both days have been incredibly suspect.
Kak — EoN2 reads list was incredibly wishy washy. He feels hedgy, but in a way that feels like he doesn’t want his opinion pinned down instead of actually not knowing.


I want a Kak wagon both to change the flow of the conversation and because I’m still really unsure on Damo. I'm also a little worried that I am close to townreading too many and whether that implies scum sit on the townier end of my reads. ##vote Kak

[celaph]

@Bona, can you speak to what you find towny in Kak's work? What gives you that sense?

Earlier you wrote:

i have gazed into his soul and saw a town pm