M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

[DeathLlama8]

we're halfway into the day and celaph, maniac, and kak have combined to make three posts :))

[BesharamSabi]

we're halfway into the day and celaph, maniac, and kak have combined to make three posts :))

Somehow eden, the gm, has more posts than Kak the whole game???

[DeathLlama8]

also @bona I reread town!kak's d1 last game and he even seems more commital then so I don't think the signals I'm getting are just kak being kak

[DeathLlama8]

hi pyxxy

working on anything rn? what do you make of the way the damo/bona wagons coalesced today?

[pyxxy]

hi pyxxy

working on anything rn? what do you make of the way the damo/bona wagons coalesced today?

I've been reading the damo questioning and I'm not sure what to make of it.

Also not sure why Damo is trying to incite Bona to make a self-preservation vote against Kak?

At some point I started wondering if blatant self-preservation "I'm town I'm town get off me get off me" is just smart scum play if done consistently from D1.
---
Also mildly interesting that Bona has spent his time arguing with Damo but not addressing my posts scumreading him.

Granted I'm not sure there's much to respond to in my posts, since it's mostly "VCA makes me think you're sus, good luck refuting this argument".

[DeathLlama8]

I don't think it's self-preservation since self-preservation for damo/bona is just voting/pushing bona/damo. He's also at least been pushing kak other days.

At some point I started wondering if blatant self-preservation "I'm town I'm town get off me get off me" is just smart scum play if done consistently from D1.

yeah kinda agreed here though, not sure if the vibes are just throwing me off

[DeathLlama8]

what did you get out of your tfb/bona questioning earlier btw?

[pyxxy]

Re: coalescing, I think it's what happens when people actually vote before halfway through a day. This is much more similar to how M73 went down, iirc. Although that game had some weirdness with hammering votes.

Really I'm just like, Jímíí is right. This is why we kill lurkers. Having to wonder if Kak or Maniac are getting free rides while town consumes itself is really frustrating. But I feel bad voting for nulls instead of scumleans?

This might also just be a microcosm of this being a mini. There's less leeway to find scum. And our prophet got murked N1 which doesn't help :/

[pyxxy]

I don't think it's self-preservation since self-preservation for damo/bona is just voting/pushing bona/damo. He's also at least been pushing kak other days.

At some point I started wondering if blatant self-preservation "I'm town I'm town get off me get off me" is just smart scum play if done consistently from D1.

yeah kinda agreed here though, not sure if the vibes are just throwing me off

Yeah I completely agree that Damo has behaved consistently.

I ain't scum. Get off me.

##vote Durga

Specifically, I think the way that Damo this game has commented on Jamie and aaro townreading them makes me wonder if we have town damo.

Yes I am town. Any town on me should get off me now.

if you think Maniac is town move off him and join the Kak wagon. Don't join mine lol

The way Damo reacted each time felt the same, no hint of shifting motives afaik. Which is why I townlean him. Maybe honestly townread him.

[DeathLlama8]

yeah my instinct is that it's town indicative because what scum would do that
but i think it's too easy for scum to fake consistency here for it to actually give town cred

[Jamiet99uk]

Having said the Snowy kill was obvious something has occurred to me.

If I were scum I would be tempted to leave him alive because his mere survival would make him a target of suspicion.

This leads me to think the scumteam may be inexperienced at being scum.

Something like Sabi Bona Pyxxy ?

vote Bona

Why those three in particular, and why do you think the entire scumteam has to be inexperienced at being scum for a snowy kill? kinda seems like a weak reason to move off kak

I don't think Jamie or I or maybe even TFB would have NKd snowy.

I would have.

[pyxxy]

what did you get out of your tfb/bona questioning earlier btw?

I was trying to catch Boat slipping because I didn't like how fast he defended Bona after EOD D2:

RIP. Sorry aaro. Can someone tell me what was going on with the bona wagon that started?

C'mon Sabi he clearly did so to break the game of chicken and make people cast meaningful votes given how stagnant the EOD was. Do you actually think he did that hoping that the vote would end in a tie?

Here's something scum!TFB wrote in M73:

Imo in order of probability with 2 mins left, my intuition is that people in the panic a) rush to the other side of the vote that induced the tie b) flip around chaotically to prevent the tie c) rush with the person who created the tie

I think with 5 mins left there is enough time for an argument to actually kill celaph to succeed. With sub 2 mins I don't think there is.

Boat strikes me as a person that plays mafia by writing as many truths as possible, and then just strategically sneaking in partial lies as needed.

So I take him writing this last game as truthful despite him being scum. Granted Chaqa was town and so he would benefit from calling Chaqa's behavior scummy.

Thus it makes sense that TFB is fine with Bona's unvote tactic, because it was at -00:07, plenty of time to shuffle the wagons.

But what doesn't make sense to me is Boat leaping to defend Bona for drawing flak for the unvote tactic.

Not to mention that Bona almost seems to shade his voters here:

I mean honestly guys it's not like I have a surefire bet on aaro being scum so I don't mind too much if you vote elsewhere but

I'm just saying I do tend to be right reasonably often. So uh you know

i'm coming back but it's interesting that 2 votes immediately piled onto me

as if it's not obvious that people would vote for him out of annoyance?

And since TFB voted at -00:01, he knows why people voted for Bona, right?

So how come in the same minute as the death announcement post, he manages to write an entire question so quickly and then dismiss Sabi's annoyance so quickly?

It feels almost like TFB knew the plan ahead of time and was prepared to deflect any suspicion that Bona might receive for doing his on-brand unvote shenanigans.

[pyxxy]

(what I wouldn't give for second-precise timestamps on forum posts....)

[Jamiet99uk]

Damo's responses to questioning in the past few hours have been very sketchy

"Damo, what about these problems with your analysis?"
"Oh, I made a whole load of secret assumptions."

Yeah ok, time you were expelled from stats class.

##Vote Damo.

[damo666]

Damo's responses to questioning in the past few hours have been very sketchy

"Damo, what about these problems with your analysis?"
"Oh, I made a whole load of secret assumptions."

Yeah ok, time you were expelled from stats class.

##Vote Damo.

FFS Jamie they are not secret, they are simply unstated. They are derivable from the results. I'm stubbornly not listing them because nobody's taking it seriously anyway.

It's 2 of ABC and I think it's AB. It is not necessary to say I assume it's not C. That's an oversimplification but it's essentially the same.

[damo666]

what did you get out of your tfb/bona questioning earlier btw?

I was trying to catch Boat slipping because I didn't like how fast he defended Bona after EOD D2:

RIP. Sorry aaro. Can someone tell me what was going on with the bona wagon that started?

C'mon Sabi he clearly did so to break the game of chicken and make people cast meaningful votes given how stagnant the EOD was. Do you actually think he did that hoping that the vote would end in a tie?

Here's something scum!TFB wrote in M73:

Imo in order of probability with 2 mins left, my intuition is that people in the panic a) rush to the other side of the vote that induced the tie b) flip around chaotically to prevent the tie c) rush with the person who created the tie

I think with 5 mins left there is enough time for an argument to actually kill celaph to succeed. With sub 2 mins I don't think there is.

Boat strikes me as a person that plays mafia by writing as many truths as possible, and then just strategically sneaking in partial lies as needed.

So I take him writing this last game as truthful despite him being scum. Granted Chaqa was town and so he would benefit from calling Chaqa's behavior scummy.

Thus it makes sense that TFB is fine with Bona's unvote tactic, because it was at -00:07, plenty of time to shuffle the wagons.

But what doesn't make sense to me is Boat leaping to defend Bona for drawing flak for the unvote tactic.

Not to mention that Bona almost seems to shade his voters here:

I mean honestly guys it's not like I have a surefire bet on aaro being scum so I don't mind too much if you vote elsewhere but

I'm just saying I do tend to be right reasonably often. So uh you know

i'm coming back but it's interesting that 2 votes immediately piled onto me

as if it's not obvious that people would vote for him out of annoyance?

And since TFB voted at -00:01, he knows why people voted for Bona, right?

So how come in the same minute as the death announcement post, he manages to write an entire question so quickly and then dismiss Sabi's annoyance so quickly?

It feels almost like TFB knew the plan ahead of time and was prepared to deflect any suspicion that Bona might receive for doing his on-brand unvote shenanigans.

I like this post. BKT then?

[damo666]

##vote Bona then I guess. At least I tried.

##end

I'm fed up.

[Maniac]

Hey Celaph, you OK?

[Maniac]

##end

This might be a good strategy actually.

[Jamiet99uk]

Damo's responses to questioning in the past few hours have been very sketchy

"Damo, what about these problems with your analysis?"
"Oh, I made a whole load of secret assumptions."

Yeah ok, time you were expelled from stats class.

##Vote Damo.

FFS Jamie they are not secret, they are simply unstated. They are derivable from the results. I'm stubbornly not listing them because nobody's taking it seriously anyway.

It's 2 of ABC and I think it's AB. It is not necessary to say I assume it's not C. That's an oversimplification but it's essentially the same.

That's significantly oversimplified. You presented this big wall of analysis whilst not properly showing your methodology, making unstated assumptions, as if you were doing real meaningful analysis. I am concerned that you were just trying to look like you were doing something meaningful and your tetchy responses to questioning doesn't help me feel good about you.