M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

[Bonatogether]

not really sure what to make of the top two wagons being reruns. I'm getting m1020 vibes and I don't like it

one of the wagons will collapse, i'm not worried about reruns

[damo666]

the last time you irrationally tunneled me you were scum
##vote damo

I'm not tunnelling you. You just happen to be one of the few people I don't townread.

'

I am approaching certain that one of these wagons is scum.

If you mean the current wagons then if you are right it is Bona.

as i see it, there's a difference between 'i believe this person is scum', and 'i'm absolutely 100% without a doubt convinced this person is scum'. I believe the name for it is tunneling

So who is 100% convinced who is scum?

[damo666]

looking at D2 votes I find the following of interest:

5 minutes out Maniac voted Bona making it Bona 3 Kak 2 aaro 2 me 2

Subsequently DL moved from Kak to aaro and TFB moved from me to aaro.

Could either or both of these been to protect Bona?

I think Bona is the right kill for today. If he flips scum then strongly consider TFB next.

Could either of both of those given reasons in thread that lined up with their previous and later statements? Curious.

Try that again in English please.

[damo666]

These are my possible scumteams using initial letter abbreviations as follows:

Frequency count is as follows with the first being total appearances and the second excluding triplets with any of the town 3

Celaph 21 0
TFB 20 8
Pyxxy 18 8
DLamp 15 5
Kak 15 5
Sabi 14 5
Jamie 14 0
Bona 9 5
Maniac 5 0

Bona is surprsingly low on the list. This analysis makes TFB the best vote.

this only means anything if all your assumptions are correct. I also can't tell the bold and not-bold apart so idek what's going on there.

Well yes ofc it's based on assumptions.

I've listed the unbold triplets in a separate post.

[damo666]

Maniac has not done a great deal I am ready to admit but the reasons I think he is town are:

Firstly, his unvote from me. I know this won't look as significant to others ignorant of my alignment but I have the advantage of knowing I am town so this makes it very towny in my eyes. Remember he also correctly townread Snowy in that post.

Secondly his vote his vote from Unvote to Jamie 27 minutes from EOD2 when the votes were Maniac 3 Aaro 3 Kak 2 me 2. Hardly the move of a scumbag is it? He correctly didn't vote for town aaro when he could easily have done so, neither did he vote for Kak.

Another post I liked though I'm not so sure I agree with it is his post townreading Pyxxy for the way Pyxxy introduced a wall post. [I guess there is a slim chance of PyxxyManiac scum pair but I disregard that for now.]

Being right isn't a towntell, and that's like half your reasoning gone right there.

So now you accept I'm town? Move off me then.

[damo666]

BDP
BDT
BKP
BKT
BPT
DMT
DPS
DPT
DST
KPS
KPT
KST
PST

This is the list excluding C, J and M. Mainly for my own benefit.

why can I never be on a team with sabi? I don't get what you think these are the only possible teams

It's one of my unstated assumptions. You can work them out if you can be bothered.

[TheFlyingBoat]

BDP
BDT
BKP
BKT
BPT
DMT
DPS
DPT
DST
KPS
KPT
KST
PST

This is the list excluding C, J and M. Mainly for my own benefit.

why can I never be on a team with sabi? I don't get what you think these are the only possible teams

It's one of my unstated assumptions. You can work them out if you can be bothered.

How many others are there? This analysis becomes less and less valuable the more unstated assumptions work their way in to it especially if these assumptions aren't good assumptions.

[damo666]

Having said the Snowy kill was obvious something has occurred to me.

If I were scum I would be tempted to leave him alive because his mere survival would make him a target of suspicion.

This leads me to think the scumteam may be inexperienced at being scum.

Something like Sabi Bona Pyxxy ?

vote Bona

Why those three in particular, and why do you think the entire scumteam has to be inexperienced at being scum for a snowy kill? kinda seems like a weak reason to move off kak

"Something like" not "in particular". I can't remember any of them having been scum.

IT wasn't a reason to 'move off Kak'. It was a motivation to vote Bona.

[damo666]

I'd prefer a damo vote to bona/maniac, and a damo scum flip would be really good for us, but I'm not really convinced the VCA points that clearly to damo being scum / the EOD movement off damo being scum-driven.

if there's something I'm missing I'd love to hear it (tfb/jamie probably) but if scum are committed to an early vote of scum!damo I really don't see them jumping off at the last minute to save him - they're more likely to either not vote him in the first place, or bus him and claim towncred for doing so.

but wouldn't happen

[TheFlyingBoat]

BDP
BDT
BKP
BKT
BPT
DMT
DPS
DPT
DST
KPS
KPT
KST
PST

This is the list excluding C, J and M. Mainly for my own benefit.

why can I never be on a team with sabi? I don't get what you think these are the only possible teams

It's one of my unstated assumptions. You can work them out if you can be bothered.

What changed?

Having said the Snowy kill was obvious something has occurred to me.

If I were scum I would be tempted to leave him alive because his mere survival would make him a target of suspicion.

This leads me to think the scumteam may be inexperienced at being scum.

Something like Sabi Bona Pyxxy ?

##vote Bona

[damo666]

Having said the Snowy kill was obvious something has occurred to me.

If I were scum I would be tempted to leave him alive because his mere survival would make him a target of suspicion.

This leads me to think the scumteam may be inexperienced at being scum.

Something like Sabi Bona Pyxxy ?

vote Bona

Why those three in particular, and why do you think the entire scumteam has to be inexperienced at being scum for a snowy kill? kinda seems like a weak reason to move off kak

I don't think Jamie or I or maybe even TFB would have NKd snowy.

[BesharamSabi]

Having said the Snowy kill was obvious something has occurred to me.

If I were scum I would be tempted to leave him alive because his mere survival would make him a target of suspicion.

This leads me to think the scumteam may be inexperienced at being scum.

Something like Sabi Bona Pyxxy ?

vote Bona

Why those three in particular, and why do you think the entire scumteam has to be inexperienced at being scum for a snowy kill? kinda seems like a weak reason to move off kak

I don't think Jamie or I or maybe even TFB would have NKd snowy.

Didn't tfb nk snowy in m73?

[damo666]

why can I never be on a team with sabi? I don't get what you think these are the only possible teams

It's one of my unstated assumptions. You can work them out if you can be bothered.

How many others are there? This analysis becomes less and less valuable the more unstated assumptions work their way in to it especially if these assumptions aren't good assumptions.

There are several pairings I consider unlikely. Listing these doesn't add anything. The triplets excluding them are as above.

[damo666]

why can I never be on a team with sabi? I don't get what you think these are the only possible teams

It's one of my unstated assumptions. You can work them out if you can be bothered.

What changed?

Having said the Snowy kill was obvious something has occurred to me.

If I were scum I would be tempted to leave him alive because his mere survival would make him a target of suspicion.

This leads me to think the scumteam may be inexperienced at being scum.

Something like Sabi Bona Pyxxy ?

##vote Bona

Good spot. I forgot the BonaSabi nonpair. In fact none of those triplets are entirely inexperienced so that's that theory out the window. Maybe KPS or BPK and Kak was inactive? Clutching at straws there. So the Snowy kill probably doesn't exclude anyone I'm not already townreading (except for perhaps you).

[damo666]

Why those three in particular, and why do you think the entire scumteam has to be inexperienced at being scum for a snowy kill? kinda seems like a weak reason to move off kak

I don't think Jamie or I or maybe even TFB would have NKd snowy.

Didn't tfb nk snowy in m73?

Did he? Oh well.

[TheFlyingBoat]

I don't think Jamie or I or maybe even TFB would have NKd snowy.

Didn't tfb nk snowy in m73?

Did he? Oh well.

I did. I don't think anyone should be excluded in the basis of that kill. Snowy is a good investigator and was the most active player this game. I don't think there is a single player that wouldn't kill him tbh.

[damo666]

BKP
BKT
BPT
KPT

If I exclude my next 2 best townleans (S and D) it boils down to the above 4.

If there are not at least 2 scum in that 4 I will be surprised.

If you end up miskilling me (please don't) concentrate on these 4. There would be only 1 mk left.

[damo666]

Didn't tfb nk snowy in m73?

Did he? Oh well.

I did. I don't think anyone should be excluded in the basis of that kill. Snowy is a good investigator and was the most active player this game. I don't think there is a single player that wouldn't kill him tbh.

I would have argued leaving him for at least another night to create suspicion but yeah I agree that discussing the nk won't help. If you are town then according to my latest that makes the scum team BKP. What do you think?

[damo666]

Actually with TKB being my current voters it is quite unlikely they are the entire scumteam.

BKP is now my official guess.

Game solved.

Thank you.

[Bonatogether]

I'm not tunnelling you. You just happen to be one of the few people I don't townread.

'

If you mean the current wagons then if you are right it is Bona.

as i see it, there's a difference between 'i believe this person is scum', and 'i'm absolutely 100% without a doubt convinced this person is scum'. I believe the name for it is tunneling

So who is 100% convinced who is scum?

Did I say you were scum? No. I said you were tunneling.