Is widespread dislike of Trump enough to propel a Democrat to Presidency?

[brainbomb]

Its 500 days into the America that Trump is shaping. Unlike George Bush Senior, Trump isnt in any major wars, and unemployment is pretty low. The economy isnt in absolute ruin. So is just simply hatred of Trump enough to trigger a 1 term presidency? We live in an era in which theres been only one President in 30 years who failed to reach a second term. Point being, history favors Trump to get reelected despite how much people hate him. Any candidate running against him can pick any issue and run with it, but is just simply "not" being Trump enough?

[brainbomb]

I would argue GW Bush was worse than Trump so far. And he got reelected vs John Kerry by a decent margin.

[Jamiet99uk]

It depends which Democrat. Last time they chose a poor candidate.

[Greg_the_republican]

Contrary to popular belief, at least half of America approves of Trump. The people who dislike him are the ones getting media attention. The fact is, he has done a great job as president so far. Lots of jobs, foreign relations with North Korea, etc. I think if the left could look past their perception of him and instead focus on what he has actually done, he’ll easily win a second term. He’s got my vote in 2020.

[Randomizer]

It depends what happens in the last year of the term. A down turn in the economy, major scandal, or just a good opposition candidate makes what's happen so far irrelevant.

There's even the term, "October Surprise," that was coined for past presidents to describe an event so significant it would knock an incumbent out of the election no matter what else had happened. Close enough to the election so there's no time to recover.

[brainbomb]

It depends which Democrat. Last time they chose a poor candidate.

You are not wrong. But the issue this time around would be if they choose Bernie, wouldnt the argument be he couldnt even beat Hillary in the Primary, how can he beat Trump?

Its the same argument people made regarding Hillary being unable to beat Obama in the 2008 primary season.

[brainbomb]

Contrary to popular belief, at least half of America approves of Trump. The people who dislike him are the ones getting media attention. The fact is, he has done a great job as president so far. Lots of jobs, foreign relations with North Korea, etc. I think if the left could look past their perception of him and instead focus on what he has actually done, he’ll easily win a second term. He’s got my vote in 2020.

Contrary to your above statement 42% approval is not 'at least half'. Trump approval has stayed at or below 42% over a year. His approval last toppd 43% in march 2017.

What has been accomplished with North Korea? Thats interesting to say. Is Dennis playin more basketball or something?

[brainbomb]

Within the Black community, Trump approval is at 2%

[Hellenic Riot]

The Democrats have already run one campaign on "not being Trump" and lost. If they do it again, they're either pure idiots or outright insane. Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results is the definition of madness, after all.

The status quo sucked, which is why people didn't vote for it. The Democrats need to offer something different - not the same thing as Trump, obviously, but also not just to go back to "Pre-Trump" situation. For all his faults, Trump is fulfilling far more of his campaign promises than most politicians ever do - which is why his approval rating is staying at broadly the same level. Attacking him for who he is clearly won't work, because everyone has heard before already. To change minds and win voters over, they need to offer something new and better.

And no, Bernie Sanders is most likely not the answer, mostly because of how old he'll be come 2020. 2020 is, much like with any incumbent President, Trump's to lose. Unless he makes a major unpopular policy reversal a la "Read my lips: No new taxes", which seems rather unlikely given his general disregard for anything people say, then it'll take a wildly different and bold candidate to beat him.

Aside from Bush Snr's Tax U-Turn, it took something of the level of the disasters of Vietnam (Johnson) or the back of the Watergate Scandal (Ford) to restrict a President to a one term elected leadership since WW2, with the sole exception of Jimmy Carter. And Ronald Reagan didn't get in by offering the same sort of politics as either Carter or the years before him.

[brainbomb]

Thus my question was, is rampant consistent unpopularity enough to get a guy thrown out? Or does he need to get indicted or impeached for there to be a chance for a democrat.

Im not ruling out that eventually trump gets impeached

[leon1122]

Within the Black community, Trump approval is at 2%

You missed a digit there, brain.

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/wash ... ges-racism

[Octavious]

Out of interest, brainbomb, what groups of voters who opted for Trump in the last election do you think have been put off him by his time in office?

[brainbomb]

Out of interest, brainbomb, what groups of voters who opted for Trump in the last election do you think have been put off him by his time in office?

It just depends on Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, and Penn.

How voters in the blue collar states feel hes done. Wrt to the economy they probably feel pretty good.

[brainbomb]

Leave it to leon to scour the web for the most distorted, most unlikely poll data.

Numbers range from 13% and lower in every other poll im seeing.

[brainbomb]

Im not delusional. 24 hour news cycle talks about how much trump is collapsing but its not necessarily substantive. Democrats have no candidate yet 2 years out, when Obama ran in 08 he was already popular by summer 06. And was establishing a following

[Randomizer]

The tariffs from countries retaliating to Trump are already causing plant closings, raised prices, and talks of a slowing economy when the next round goes into effect. States where Trump did well are being targeted with tariffs and people vote against losing money. There is enough anecdotal reports from Trump voters that won't vote for him again to worry Trump.

Carter lost over the Iranian Hostages. It wasn't a coincidence that their release was Reagan's inauguration day. If there hadn't been the military rescue failure, Carter could have gotten reelected for standing up to the Iranians.

[brainbomb]

I certainly believe that almost any democrat would be a better President than Trump. But im a radical liberal, so my opinion is quite biased. I have seen alot of really piss poor candidates and joke candidates like dwayne the rock johnson, Oprah and others claim interest in running. Part of my issue with that is it makes us look dumb. Ive heard Biden floated as an option which isnt going to inspire the base much, or draw in new voters. Senator warren would be a rather dull choice for anyone other than radical liberal voters.

So currently, I havent been all that optimistic or impressed. I think the midterm election results will be very important in shaping how trump governs when he has to work with a divided government. The democrats reshaping congress will probably pursue impeachment which is, in my opinion just more of the same stupid shit.

[Jamiet99uk]

Within the Black community, Trump approval is at 2%

You missed a digit there, brain.

Within the Black community, Trump approval is at 02%

There I fixed it.

[Stressedlines]

radomizer, from a few sources, can you cite where it says factories are closing, since Manufacturing jobs and production domestically are WAY up over the past year I think I read 140K new manufacturing jobs in the past 6 months thats not a sign of 'Factories closing" unless it fits your narrative

Keep in mind, I am not a big Trump cheerleader, but the economy will slow down eventually regardless but signs are not pointing to it right now.

[Randomizer]

This is one that was closed due to parts price increase:
https://money.cnn.com/2018/08/08/news/c ... index.html

Others are still in wait and see mode until they can see if they can sell at higher prices. Some places bought ahead of tariffs going into effect to lock in lower prices. Among them are Trump campaign for 2020 from China.