M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

[President Eden]

Is day chat still active? Will it be active every day?

Yes and yes.

[aarodactyl]

Did you want to take that fact somewhere aaro?

I was just thinking of who would think to PR hunt rdr. Tbh you were my top choice at PR and I wasn’t considering rdr. I think it’s likely that one of them is on the scum team. I don’t think this is a silver bullet but definitely worth considering.

I still think Jamie is town and I still think damo has scum potential. I don’t know if D1 makes sense to me as TvTvT but also I don’t know how a scum day chat would change things.

[snowy801]

Would you say you more believe Jamiet and/or damo is likely to be scum due to your above explanation? Or rather that you believe it likely for separate reasons and you wanted to note that it merely coincides with your prior game recollection?

[aarodactyl]

Would you say you more believe Jamiet and/or damo is likely to be scum due to your above explanation? Or rather that you believe it likely for separate reasons and you wanted to note that it merely coincides with your prior game recollection?

Maybe it's because it's early and I'm tired, but I have no idea what you're trying to ask. I'll say some random thought on the matter and maybe I'll answer what you're trying to get out.

I don't know a good portion of you, and I have no idea what your histories with rdr are. I do know that jamie and damo have N1'ed him in the past while PR hunting. I understand that can get into WIFOM territory very quickly.

I brought it up because I think rdr being killed potentially implicates one of them, and I wanted to share that as a data point. I then included that this is compatible with my current reads when questioned about it.

[aarodactyl]

Also to be honest, I'm not fully up to date on the thread. I'll try to catch up on the last few pages at some point today.

[snowy801]

Catch up at your leisure.

Pyxxy: you caught serious flak fire for being ever present in thread (as evidenced by your +1s) but not saying anything from brainbomb. Will you not drop down and share your stray thoughts to avoid such a repeat?

[BesharamSabi]

Is day chat still active? Will it be active every day?

Yes and yes.

Is the game thread closed after day 1? Asking for someone who is about to spend two hours at the hair salon and would love to have content to read and no one is saying anything.

[aarodactyl]

Is day chat still active? Will it be active every day?

Yes and yes.

Is the game thread closed after day 1? Asking for someone who is about to spend two hours at the hair salon and would love to have content to read and no one is saying anything.

This is worth using one of your 10 posts on? We're not very fair into D2 and you (and some other people) were out during peak posting hours last night. I think it's ok for the game to slow down a bit on a Saturday morning.

[Kakarroto]

@damo that theory sounds kinda weak to me. As I said it looked to me as if you were pr hunting (and with rd getting nuked after you tried to get his VT tell which he refused; that pr hunting thought grows more). Why I was inactive so long? Mostly because of you, but I didn't feel too well (had planned to be on for the EoD but collapsed in bed ... well collapse is a strong word for it, maybe I was just missing sleep, had headache yesterday and today and slept until about now after going to bed after SoD yesterday) but mostly because of that post and behaviour of you. I also gambled that mafia might read my behaviour like I was afraid of engaging with that as a pr that was trying to stay low.

Also why would I now remain null to you, I was your highest mafia read? Did anything change or is it just so that all the others are more town than me being null?

@aaro you should upvote my posts then too, they are funny and insightful and helpful (did you go back to the two Jamie posts I pointed out in my read list? *looks back* ... yes ... and yes ... welp, guess that's just a red herring). Other thing, how long did you count?

@snowy why do you think I was 0%? As explained above, I was thinking that my behaviour looked like (at least partly) pr staying low after that engagement, do you think that mafia wouldn't see it that way? Last game you said in the god qt you thought I was a pr then or at least had a chance for it, what was the thing that made you think that then?

@DL reactions to my play: I kinda liked the reaction durga had to it, I mean my work of art not being liked was sad, but the way durga did it was straightforward and pure. At first durga was in my list for potential mafia, but more and more I felt ok about it. If I had been on EoD I probably would've tried to save durga and pushed damo. Maybe I would've put aaro above durga if that would've come to it. But I guess I digress. I think I've made myself clear on damo with him feeling like prodding for pr. Snowy not reading it is meh, I'd thought he would appreciate at least the posts on the first page, but it kinda fits for him. I'm surprised pyxxy didn't read it, especially since I wrote a whole thing just for them and their comment, but that might be I just overvalue my work. I would've classified them as someone who would read it at least, so I'm not forgetting to have a look there. If I were in their position, I would've asked something like 'why does he do something that looks like buddying/pocketing with that flavour text'. I'm cautious of why bona encouraged me to post more in that style, might be he is just awesome meme-guy might be he is mafia and trying to make me look silly or bad. I tend to the first, but I'm nowhere sure as chaqa or eden would be. I think you did an ok job at presenting some of my thoughts in there, though it's not as in-depth as I thought you might be able and willing to do. Might be just it was day one. Jamie and maniac seemed to react to them somewhat naturally, Jamie a bit less so by ignoring them first but the interpretative dance joke was fine. A bit concerned it was a joke including damo though. I think aaro was pretty much indifferent about the whole thing (or at least I can't remember anything right now, have gotten no impression in that regard) so not really much to say about there. I needed to look at the players list to see if I hadn't forgotten someone and yeah, I couldn't remember cel and the shipmaker in regards of reactions to any of my posts. I mean now I just remembered that celaph asked one time about my reads but that's it. So I guess they either thought it was totally ok or didn't say a thing about it if they thought it was bad (or good?).

@bona what is it with you and not upvoting all the posts anymore? It's not that you said anything pre start about it like sabi's change with the post limit. Please elaborate.

@DL again you think damo is town? you said there celaph (and pyxxy's) vote look shaky, regarding cel durga has given him a town lean (or read) for being different from the last games where he was mafia, do you think durga is correct there or does it not influence you?

I like jamie's and sabi's posts about the item giving. (Snowy especially said that he doesn't want an item so why would he get one, reverse psychology is a lie.) I think we are dealing with the worst case (rd being rb'ed) right now. There is no pr who will save us so it's all on vanilla town. If there is an item out there, good, worst case avoided, but I don't think we should play like that. It's better to be prepared for the bad situation which gets better than preparing for a good situation that gets worse. To look at the bright side: if Jamie and I are correct, now we can't get a false positive on the godfather.

[snowy801]

Well Kak you know, it's the boy who cried wolf and all

[aarodactyl]

@aaro you should upvote my posts then too, they are funny and insightful and helpful (did you go back to the two Jamie posts I pointed out in my read list? *looks back* ... yes ... and yes ... welp, guess that's just a red herring). Other thing, how long did you count?

How about this, if work lightens up, I’ll go back and read your long posts and if I do, I’ll upvote them. I went back and upvoted the two posts you called out because you took the time to call them out by page. I wasn’t committed enough to the bit to find them otherwise.

I didn’t answer the other questions because I have no idea what you’re asking me to count. Is it a reference to something I said?

[Bonatogether]

i've been asleep for like 14 hours did i miss anything

[Bonatogether]

oh only about 2 pages lmao

[Jamiet99uk]

oh only about 2 pages lmao

Perhaps you would like to contribute something?

[Bonatogether]

@bona what is it with you and not upvoting all the posts anymore? It's not that you said anything pre start about it like sabi's change with the post limit. Please elaborate.

i decided to not do it cause people were complaining about it, but i'll give you all the +1s

[Bonatogether]

oh only about 2 pages lmao

Perhaps you would like to contribute something?

rdr saying kill damo obviously had something behind it, but i can't figure out a PR-wise reason why he'd say that. i'm fine keeping my vote there for now

boat man seemed very opportunistic when i was trying to kill durga, so i believe that makes him look significantly worse. would definitely vote him, but have to go for a bit now, won't move atm

[Jamiet99uk]

Pxxxy stop hiding please. I see you once again giving +1's to posts without actually posting yourself. This is not helpful.

[Bonatogether]

for me the issue is that i don't have a bearing on this game, so i'm having difficulty putting stuff together

[pyxxy]

Pxxxy stop hiding please. I see you once again giving +1's to posts without actually posting yourself. This is not helpful.

I'm writing something rn.

I don't mean to be rude but, is there something I'm missing about giving +1s? Between brainbomb last game, snowy (that's what I'm writing up rn), and now you, is giving +1s a faux pas?

That's not meant to be a rhetorical question either. It legitimately seems like I just view +1s in a fundamentally different way than y'all. Let's just skip to the same conclusion of the same conversation that I had with brainbomb.

Reminder that I wrote this post in my first ever forum mafia game, as town:

If I say yes, I +1 things that I think are funny, you're going to pull some post that's (you think) is not funny and accuse me of being inconsistent.

If I say no, I +1 things that make sense, you're going to pull a post that I found funny and accuse me of being inconsistent.

If I say both, I +1 things that I think are good contributions to the thread (that's your answer, btw), then guess what?

You're going to accuse me of dodging the question with a cop-out answer.

This is a catch-22 line of questioning because you haven't laid out your case against me ahead of time, you're just reacting to whatever I say and jumping up and down and pointing and doing an irl clown emoji

And now I'll go back to writing a longer post for Snowy. Sorry that it's been so long since I posted something. I kinda just wanted to let the thread breathe after a slow night. Expected more people to....do something in the daytime.

[TheFlyingBoat]

I tend to agree with Kak there is a decent chance that the N1 NK would NK/RBed, but regardless of whether or not it was or wasn't, we should play this game out as though PR items will not be our salvation. This is still a 9/3 game, albeit with no PRs, so the game is certainly within our grasp.

To that end, I think either damo or Aaro is the right kill today to give us more info on how D1 went down and make sense of the shifting votes. I lean towards Damo personally and here is why:

Of the early voters on Durga, there was me, Bona, and Damo. Bona and I had our tiff with Durga and it's easy to follow how it ended where it did, unfortunate as it is in hindsight. Damo is less so. He votes her the first time due to his annoyance with her not reading the setup, which is her trademark and imo a pretty poor reason to vote her. But whatever it's less than 12 hours into a slow game and he basically says an hour later that it was a vote to pressure her to read the setup which seems reasonable. 24 hours after that he pulls his vote and bounces around between Kak, DL, Durga again, and Aaro.

Now what's interesting is his choice with 13 mins left. Maniac is the wagon with momentum, having picked up 2 new votes in the prior 3 mins to his vote, but damo chooses to ignore it for a wagon that has basically been stuck at 2 (minus a hop on and off by Jamie at around 30 mins and the hop on and off by damo himself hours earlier) forever. This seems odd to me given the momentum behind a Maniac kill and the lack of a momentum behind a Durga kill until he joined the wagon. Further odd is that he actually never even mentions Maniac despite that rising tide of opinion. This seems to me like someone who think he can create his own momentum through the use of the day chat to coordinate votes onto a target of choice and Durga is obviously a much higher value MK as scum than Maniac. If Damo is scum, I think one, if not both scum will be on the followers list below.

The Damo followers onto Durga are then Celaph, Snowy, Jamie, DL, and Aaro, with Maniac casting a vote for Damo. I'll address Maniac first since it was the weirdest one. Maniac claims he didn't see DL's vote and his explanation his lunacy. Could just be Maniac being a maniac if he's town, or there could be an attempt to tie or an attempt to distance himself from Damo in a somewhat high risk play if both are scum (which I view as unlikely), or simply trying to get into a position where could pillory town for an MK if he is scum and damo is town. Unfortunately I don't think killing Damo or Aaro or anyone else could actually give us a direct answer to this question, so I'll table it for now and hopefully his future posts and some other VCA down the line will give us clarity there.

With that out of the way let's look at what we see here.

Celaph/Aaro:

Celaph looks reasonably good if Damo is scum as imo that means both Aaro and Celaph are likely clear given the amount of effort Celaph blatantly made into protecting Aaro and that I view a S vs S wagons on D1 in a scum day chat game as highly unlikely. It is possible Celaph wanted to bus Damo and pocket Aaro to burnish his cred, but I feel like that is less likely than the alternative.

If Damo is town I view both with increased suspicion. Aaro is obviously under the highest degree of suspicion as I view TvsTvsT as mostly unlikely even in a scum day chat game as I feel like the odds of a town just randomly picking one scum from a pool of 14 given there are three scum and there are three shots is fairly high and that's assuming we can't outperform random shots in the dark. Celaph would be viewed with a lower degree of suspicion than Aaro but still a high one given how much he steered the D1 kill away from Aaro and onto Damo before casting critical votes onto Durga.

Damo did make the point that if he is town Celaph has no reason to shift off the easy DK, but given the chance to take out Durga, I can see it being something he'd extend for, especially given the perceived safety that came from his heavily town read position prior to the vote.

Snowy:

I don't know how to read this EoD. I am surprised there wasn't more frustration with Bona for not honoring the bet. He seemed to prefer Aaro to Durga. Yet after Bona made it clear he wanted Durga despite the bet he relented and tied the two wagons. He is going for Aaro at least today which makes sense. Imo if Aaro flips scum he looks really good. If Damo flips scum, less so, but I don't think scum!snowy would bother to stick his neck that far out for Damo if he were scum, so I don't think either flip is necessarily bad for him.

Outside of the EoD1, I didn't like his jabs at Jamie at night and truth be told I've spent the entire past hour as I've been writing this post trapped in the WIFOM of whether or not he is scum hamming up being a dick to justify to town why he is a likely miskill target and why he is still alive or if he is a town hamming up being a dick to make scum think he is a likely miskill target to avoid an NK.

Jamie:

Jamie is really interesting to me because he seemed really interested in avoiding the Aaro/Damo vote question altogether. He did make it clear in his comments that Aaro was town to him and that Maniac was his preferred vote, which I can understand, but why did he never vote for Damo on the block? This left me very confused. If Damo is scum, I think Jamie is very likely scum and that he was simply trying to buddy Aaro. If Damo is town, I still find it odd that he was so reluctant to vote him to protect Aaro if he were that confident Aaro was town.

DL:

Seemed to want a Maniac flash, much like Jamie and Sabi did given his odd behavior. Strongly wanted Damo to be the kill over Aaro and didn't like the idea of Durga being the kill either. He cast his votes to protect Aaro throughout EoD, so I think if Aaro turns up town he looks pretty good unless we think it was a pocket attempt. Looks kinda eh regardless of the Damo flip given how uninvested he seemed it in it beyond the saving Aaro bit. That being said he had me completely fooled despite me correctly calling Damo and Ghug as scum (Bona was my third guess) before I joined the god thread as a spectator in M1020, so I admit my ability to read DL is weaker than on others.