M1021 - Blessings of Lilia - GAME THREAD [hidden]

[damo666]

Here are my notes on players jic I'm a NK (I was an early NK last time):-

aaro) keeps stressing his work commitments, made a strange reads list but this was in response to a specific request so probably nai. I don't think aaro was saved. When aaro was 5-4 in the lead the first person to move off was durga (town) and the next was me (town). The 2 people to later move off aaro were snowy and Maniac so if aaro happens to be scum I doubt those 2 are as continuing to bus would appear safe. Conclusion slight townlean, cannot be scum with snowy or Maniac

Sabi) sticking to self imposed post limit which is nai. Votes a bit weird but this is generally true of Sabi. Slight townlean awaiting further info

Bona) don't remember anything outstanding, votes all over the place until settling on durga earlyish - null

celaph) switched from me to durga when I was 6-3 up with 13 minutes to go. Can't see scum doing that. Strong Town.

DL) townie vibes, the late switch from me to durga is probably to avoid a tie and nai. Slight townlean.

Jamie) Sounds town. The late vote for durga is nai as it was TvT. Townlean.

Kak) The strange posts are nai as obviously preplanned but the sudden stop and absence concerns me. I have a scumvibe but will be interested to see how and what he posts. Slight scumlean.

Maniac) The late switch from aaro to me making it durga 7 me 5 was a bit odd but doesn't make sense as scum. So I can only assume he correctly read durga as town and incorrectly read me as more likely scum. Townlean

Pyxxy) Quiet. Null I guess but I wouldn't be surprised if they flip scum.

rdr) Usual self. Answered my query satisfactorily. Slight townlean.

Snowy) The switch to durga 5 minutes out made it 5-5. If snowy were scum why not switch to me? Townlean

TFB) Sounds towny but I just don't know. Null

TOWN

Damo

Celaph
Maniac
Jamie
Snowy

DL
Sabi
rdr
aaro

TFB
Bona

Pyxxy

Kak

SCUM

[aarodactyl]

aaro) keeps stressing his work commitments, made a strange reads list but this was in response to a specific request so probably nai. I don't think aaro was saved. When aaro was 5-4 in the lead the first person to move off was durga (town) and the next was me (town). The 2 people to later move off aaro were snowy and Maniac so if aaro happens to be scum I doubt those 2 are as continuing to bus would appear safe. Conclusion slight townlean, cannot be scum with snowy or Maniac

I guess one of the joys of being an actuary in the UK is that you aren’t a health actuary in the US and as a result don’t have to deal with MA bids or ACA rate filing.

Anyways, I think your read of me is pretty fair, I just wanted to respond to the work thing because I thought it was a bit funny. I skimmed the rest of the activity from the last few hours and didn’t see any questions for me. So I’ll probably just eat my lunch and try to relax before I work all afternoon.

[President Eden]

Clarification:

Information about the mafia’s roleblocking ability was given in the signup thread but not in the OP of the main thread. Accordingly take note of the following:

• If the Itemsmith is roleblocked on a night in which they are distributing items, the distribution fails, but the Itemsmith may attempt to distribute that item on a subsequent night. The item is not “lost” if roleblocked in this way.
• If a recipient of an item is roleblocked on a night in which they are using the item, the item use fails, but the recipient may attempt to use that item on a subsequent night. The item is not “lost” if roleblocked in this way.
• Players only receive a roleblock notification if necessary (that is, if they take a night action and are roleblocked in the same night). For those of you who played M73, the roleblock here functions identically to the roleblock in M73.

[rdrivera2005]

When you say they should have known better, are you saying you wish they moved to damo to save Durga? Because it seemed at the time of their switch the aaro wagon was dead.

The reason I ask is because the only time you mentioned damo was in response to the whole was Durga's townslip a scummy action or NAI question and never outside of that. I suppose the follow up question then is why do you think scum!jamie or scum!Snowy made those moves? Do you think one or both were trying to save Damo by pushing the Durga cw instead as they realized the aaro one was running out of steam? Or do you think scum!snowy was bussing Aaro and saw a way out he took?

I would have choosed Damo over Durga because I have a townread on Durga and was null on Damo. I am not sure Damo is scum being saved it could have been Aaro too. Don't think it was 3 townies.

The turning point to get Durga killed was Celaph vote, but I don't think scum Celaph does this to save scum Damo, so, if Damo is scum I suspect the next voters.

If Damo is town and Aaro scum I can see both Jamiet and Snowy moving to get Durga killed and also set Damo to be the next one.

Thanks, so to clarify if scum!Damo your scum team is Damo+Jamie/Snowy+??? and if scum!aaro it is Aaro+Jamie+Snowy as of now? I also strongly townread Celaph before the flip so I agree and am reluctant to view him as scum unless Aaro is scum as that is the only world in which I could see scum!celaph for now given the way D1 played out.

I don't usually think in terms of teams, more on individuals.

I would say that if Damo is scum it's likely one of Snowy or Jamiet is also scum.
The move on Durga to get Damo later if Damo is town isn't contingent on Aaro being scum, sorry if it look like that. I just think it's unlikely all 3 wagons are town. But even if all them were town I can easily see an experienced player going for a Durga misskill over Damo or Aaro (I know I will if I were scum).

[Bonatogether]

why is thread dead

like 2 pages from when i went to bed 16 hours ago to now

[Maniac]

In answer to someone’s question; I never saw your vote.

My eod strategy was to say I wasn’t going to be on and then appear at last minute to disrupt any close vote scum had engineered. There was still time for others to vote after I thought I was tying it.

[pyxxy]

Just gonna dump some thoughts:

I found it a little weird that Snowy said he was gonna dip for a while:

I'll uh
be back
at some point
...tomorrow
...probably

Only to respond to Jamie's post 6 minutes after Jamie wrote it:

[snowy being a dick]

No need to say "I'm gonna be afk" and then not be afk. Just follow Kak's example.
---
No chance Snowy gets murked again N1, right?
---
I keep trying to apply lessons learned from M73 D1 VCA but I think mafia having a daychat in this setup makes it too different for direct comparisons. Also this is my second game ever, so, yeah.

But the daychat makes me more inclined to believe that it was indeed TvT(vT?), because scum can more easier coordinate the early wagons or just avoid needing to push a wagon at all, which seems like what's happened here?

Here's the Durga shift voters:
http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/game_st ... =day&num=1

00:13 dam aar➙Dur 6 dam 3 aar 3 Dur 2 Man
(voting any wagon to avoid self-miskill)

00:09 cel dam➙Dur 5 dam 4 Dur 3 aar 2 Man
(consistent about disliking durga's posts D1)

00:08 Bon Dur➙Dur 5 dam 4 Dur 3 aar 2 Man
(on Durga since D1 ~27:00ish)

00:05 sno aar➙Dur 5 dam 5 Dur 2 aar 2 Man
(choo choo w/ Bona)

00:04 Jam Man➙Dur 6 Dur 5 dam 2 aar 1 Man
(unsure? but I don't find this sus in my gut)

00:02 Dea dam➙Dur 7 Dur 4 dam 2 aar 1 Man
("ties are bad")

00:01 aar dam➙Dur 8 Dur 4 dam 1 aar 1 Man
(excused as not wanting a tie/voting any wagon but himself)

These all seem like reasonable reasons?

Sabi, take this and run with it again like last game.
---

celaph) switched from me to durga when I was 6-3 up with 13 minutes to go. Can't see scum doing that. Strong Town.

@Damo: What's the reasoning behind why you can't see scum/scum!celaph doing this?

- Is it based on the idea that D1 was TvT(vT)?
- And in this TvT scenario, you're a more valuable miskill for scum than Durga?
- If yes/no, why? Is there history about Durga being good/bad in endgame/KILO?
---

In answer to someone’s question; I never saw your vote.

My eod strategy was to say I wasn’t going to be on and then appear at last minute to disrupt any close vote scum had engineered. There was still time for others to vote after I thought I was tying it.

@Maniac: Did you decide to use this strategy before the game started? Or did you decide to do this at a certain point in the game? (if you remember)

[damo666]

@pyxxy

If celaph were scum he would know me v durga was TvT. Why would he move off me at 6-3 to me making it 5-4 risking a tie when there was a safe mk in the bag?

It's not impossible of course but for me it's a strong town indicator.

I doubt scum would have a big preference about mk between durga and me.

[BesharamSabi]

why is thread dead

like 2 pages from when i went to bed 16 hours ago to now

I just got home from work. Will post thoughts soon.

Where is kak? Gms is he alive?

[damo666]

why is thread dead

like 2 pages from when i went to bed 16 hours ago to now

It's night.
It's Friday.
The unpleasantness.

[pyxxy]

@pyxxy

If celaph were scum he would know me v durga was TvT. Why would he move off me at 6-3 to me making it 5-4 risking a tie when there was a safe mk in the bag?

It's not impossible of course but for me it's a strong town indicator.

I doubt scum would have a big preference about mk between durga and me.

Right, no ties. Thank you!

[DeathLlama8]

oh i thought we were way closer to eod

This is an odd thing to say, one minute from EOD.

LLama vote on Durga is also weird, I saw the tie comment, but he said "how is durga still a wagon lmao" some hours before and nothing I saw to motivate this change of mind.

I never really bought the Durga wagon, but I switched from Damo to Durga because I thought EOD was about to happen and I didn't want to risk a tie.

then right before posting the message Jamiet quoted I checked time.is and it turns out my laptop clock is a full minute out of sync

good day for vca i guess

This comment sounds like you were pretty sure whoever flipped wouldn't be scum.

I was referring to all the movement at EOD (and also still think there's something to be uncovered in the aaro/damo wagon formations). If aaro or damo flip scum d1 vca could be really helpful

[DeathLlama8]

In answer to someone’s question; I never saw your vote.

My eod strategy was to say I wasn’t going to be on and then appear at last minute to disrupt any close vote scum had engineered. There was still time for others to vote after I thought I was tying it.

tbh I still think the vote came too close to EOD for it to be a good play but I guess I don't really see a reason for scum to leave the durga wagon at that point, especially if damo is also scum

[DeathLlama8]

@damo - why don't you think scum would switch between you and durga if d1 was TvT? what are the implications if you think aaro was also town?

[DeathLlama8]

don't have time for a full EOD reread but celaph doesn't look great based off of what I've seen, especially if aaro turns out to be scum - he explicitly votes damo "to give aaro a better cw" after saying this with a few hours before EOD

I'm wrestling with whether I want to kill aaro right now. Would hate to D1 flip town aaro. TFB, Maniac, Jamie, Damo, and Kak are all kills I'm also fine with.

But when the vote is 6-3-3 and he wants to move off damo, he goes for durga over aaro without providing much explanation for the shift? He mentions earlier that while he likes durga's contributions, he didn't like the tone of her earlier posts - but that's something he'd already known at the time of the quoted post

[DeathLlama8]

Anwyay, mayve we can get something from VCA. I particularly didn´t like Snowy and Jamiet votes. They should have known better and Snowy should be sheeping me....

yeah snowy did go against both (1) his rdr sheep and (2) the coin flip when he was voting there which is interesting

[BesharamSabi]

Didnt have my time to finish up my wall post before dnd so here's half way done post that I will post that later, I do have a few posts I have questions on (I know yall hate these but whatever) :

maniac being the first vote on the aaro wagon is also pretty interesting and could be opportunism so I wouldn't really mind a pseudo-policy kill there

kinda just not sure what to make of aaro/damo becoming the top two wagons so quickly

What did you think about Maniac jumping off from aaro to durga was about? He made some excuse a few posts ago.

Bloody Mary o'clock. Have fun, jerks - and find a better wagon than Aaro.

Jamiet, you said you were going to log off but you stayed in the game thread till eod. Any reason why?

Aaro is town. If he were scum his reads list wouldn't be so laughable.

Based off observing scum, their reads tend to be half ass and fluffy like cotton candy. Why do you think bad read list = not scummy?

Maniac are you Bri'ish?

Guilty as charged.

It’s quite odd being on a lead wagon that develops quickly. It causes me to consider if there has been a mafia push, but I can’t move away because if he is scum then I’m toast tomorrow. So I’m parking my vote.

I should’ve checked EOD times before signing up. I obviously don’t need beauty sleep, but am too tired to play right now

Just want to emphasize how weird Maniac response is about creating the aaro wagon and thinking it was scum motivated and staying there yet moves to durga at eod?

I know I might be tunneling. I'm sorry.

Anyway if I die, kill Bona and Eden.

[damo666]

@damo - why don't you think scum would switch between you and durga if d1 was TvT? what are the implications if you think aaro was also town?

Because it's a redundant move. Aaro wagon had dissipated by then so I don't think his alignment is that relevant (to the movers).

[snowy801]

Quiet night

[rdrivera2005]

If I die kill Damo.