M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[Chaqa]

Don't let him get miskilled like usual lol

[pyxxy]

played mafia pyxxy have before you?

First time playing forum mafia ever.

[pyxxy]

The difference feels similar to how I learned Diplomacy irl and then learned extended deadline online press. Same rules, different games.

[pyxxy]

Even if we want to hammer, it’s optimal to do it 24 hours into the phase

Ah right.

Would everyone be open to voting for their honest-to-god #1 choice to kill by say...16 hours from now? That would leave ~2 hours for discussion on whether or not to hammer. Does that work for everyone?

If there is a clear DK, then I would be open to hammering it. A clear DK to me means >= 4 votes on someone with a 2+ vote lead over second wagon.

It might even be helpful if no one reacts to someone voting for them, for now, please. Just let everyone vote and we'll see where the chips lie.

There might be some disadvantage to voting first or last or idk. Some of y'all will probably push the boundaries of the "don't react, please" request. I don't particular care at this point.

And with all that, sorry Demon, but don't worry. I couldn't get a wagon going for you yesterday, I doubt it'll happen today.
##VOTE DemonRHK

What is the benefit of not reacting to votes?

I don't want people to get bogged down in arguing after every vote. It just prevents town from seeing all the votes and giving us time to discussion them.

See D4: brain voting for Demon, anyone voting for Blamp. Just ate up the whole thread after like 1 vote each time. Why not have everyone vote, no hammering for now, and then discuss?

I'm basically just stealing bozo's idea but limiting it to your top scum, and making people vote so that we have a record of it.

[pyxxy]

As of right now, D5 -38:30ish, we still need votes from:
bozotheclown
BusinessLamp
Fluminator

[pyxxy]

Current votes at D5 -38:30ish are:

Wagon # Voters
Fluminator (4)
DemonRHK* worcej Jamiet99uk rdrivera2005

BusinessLamp (3)
Bonatogether brainbomb Chaqa

DemonRHK (1)
pyxxy

(oh also waiting on D1 analysis from Flum)

[Fluminator]

Ok, I was starting a reread on worcej when I noticed this post which is honestly so useful and thank you worcej. So I got a bit sidetracked reading it.
I'm assuming all flipped townies are not flipper. If I'm wrong, then hey the game ends faster.

Also sorry if I've been cranky lately or unfun to play with. I really need to not play these during work hours because I'm always less joyful then. Thank you for not hammering me right away.

From 30 to 20 min left, I see the following:

• TFB move to Chaqa, from Kak, which can be seen as making more options for others in order to save himself since he was the leading wagon. Votes are 4 TFB, 3 Cha, 3 cel, 3 Kak
• Maniac pushes TFB up another vote, now up by 2 with 5 votes. I peg this as making a practical vote and Maniac provided explanation in his own words already that I read.
• Sabi move to celaph, from Kak. This makes the top wagons TFB and celaph (5, 4 respectively - next wagons 3 and 2). With no context available, this movement doesn't spark any concerns for me.
• Chaqa moves to Blamp, from TFB. Now have TFB and celaph tied at 4. Like Sabi, not concerning because there is 23 minutes left in the phase when it was tied.

@ the 20 minute mark, the VC is 4 TFB, 4 cel, 3 Cha, 2 Kak. Nothing blatantly scummy for me to want to dig into at this point.

From 20 to 10 min left, I see the following:

• Demon moves to celaph, from bozo. Celaph now @ 5. My take is this is consolidation - bozo isn't likely happening at this point.
• Kak votes for celaph. No vote prior to this, now up by 2. Need to review Kak's posts to see if this was a legit read or just saving himself.
• Chaqa moves to Kak, from BLamp. Cel still comfortably up by 2 votes.
• Sabi move to Kak, from Cel. Now wagons are less consolidated and we have a 5, 4, 4 situation with Cel, TFB, and Kak.

@ the 10 minute mark, I am questioning the votes from Chaqa and Sabi and will have to dive further for this reasoning. I'm interested in why their votes were moved during this time period.

From 10 to 5 min left, only one thing happens:

• TFB moves to Kak, from Chaqa. We now have a tied top wagon between Celaph and Kak. You can look at this move as ensuring he doesn't die (by putting two options above him on vote count) and I would default to this without any further context.

What shocks me is the vote stayed tied for 6 minutes...

From 5 to 0 min left, shit happens to consolidate:

• Maniac moves to Kak
• Celaph moves to Kak - self-saving IMHO
• Chaqa moves to Celaph - once again tying the vote...
• Bozo moves to Kak
• Blamp moves to Kak
• Jamie moves to Kak

The obvious question I have is why all of this movement explicitly to Kak and not celaph? I'd expect more dispersion than this, but it seems rather consolidated which strikes me as abnormal.

A celaph info flip grows in merit. If celaph is in fact scum, there is a small group of people who would fit the 'saving my teammate'. If celaph is town, then at least we know we're all a bunch of idiots.

This is quite nice because most people have flipped by now or been cleared.
Vote at the start of the 30 minute end of day is
Kak: Sab, Damo, Pyxxy, TFB
Celaph: Bon, Brain, PE
TFB: Bozo, Celaph, Chaqa, Snowy
Chaqa: Blamp, Jamiet
Bozo: Demon, Ghug

First interesting note is Snowy stayed on TFB pretty much the whole day and was nightkilled. His posting is a bit less verbose than what I was expecting. He threw shade on TFB, Demon, and Chaqa primarily. He then pushed for Celaph and TFB both being scum at night so he was clearly fear killed. He was definitely more focused on TFB, and I think it shows scum were prioritizing getting rid of TFB voters over Celaph voters and were indeed ready to let Celaph die. (But this would all be planned at Night 1) Day 2 I don't expect TFB bussers though.

Next, TFB voting Chaqa here is survival omgus. nothing weird.
Maniac boosting TFB to two ahead probably making scum sweat.
Sabi moving to celaph makes the top two wagons scum. At this point if scum don't act soon day 1 will be a scum vs. scum.
Chaqa moving to blamp out of nowhere just equalizes the two scum wagons.

Demon vote is the next interesting part. He jumps off bozo onto celaph.
His ISO mentions Celaph is his top scumread early on, but refuses to vote alongside Eden so votes bozo. It is here that he votes Celaph. Did he have a plan to bus Celaph? This is right as scum vs. scum is taking off. DemonRHK gets bussed up the ass a lot as scum (unnecessarily) in other games so I definitely see him not caring about bussing. The question is, would he? I think the odds are a lot better if he's familiar with Celaph as a player (and maybe TFB). People who have been around know Celaph doesn't like playing scum and is likely not long for the world but I don't know if Demon knows that.
Does anyone know DemonRHK's history with Celaph or TFB? If Demon is unfamiliar with celaph then I think this bus gives him a little cred.

Next is a bunch of town movement. Kak votes Celaph. Then Chaqa and Sabi both bump up Kak making competitive so his wagon is still competitive. This is town lead so a bit of a lucky break for mafia.

Next up is TFB moving to Kak (obviously not his partner) It sticks for 6 minutes before townies, celaph, and blamp voting the counterwagon jump on Kak last minute.
We know this last minute shift was entirely town (other than celaph). The one potential unknown is Blamp, but he was one of the last so it was definitely a last minute town lead movement onto Kak. So how brave was scum to let it sit when it was tied, and scum never actually caused the final push. This must have been less than ideal.

So this means scum were already locked in on one of the top two wagons and couldn't move, or weren't around.
People who weren't around to influence were worcej, rdr, and ghug.
It makes sense why those three are in a poe.

I think this looks good on Blamp. He was around for 6 minutes at a precarious position eod where it was a scum vs. town showdown. I do think he acts and boosts Kak instead of hoping for a town to do it first. He has quite a bit of nerve otherwise. Whoever acted first was likely what decided where the remaining votes go to avoid a tie so he had the power to shift it to Kak but didn't. It's a minor enough thing that he would have gotten away with it as scum and I suspect he'd know that.

Bon and Brain could be locked into a bus here but there is nothing suspicious they did vote-wise.
Pyxxy makes sense as scum here.

So tl;dr
Blamp looks quite good in new vote analysis.
Worcej/Rdr/Ghug admittedly make sense as absent scum.
Pyxxy and Demon also makes sense as scum, but Demon less so if he's unfamiliar with the players. Because would he bus the godfather over the janitor at a pivotal moment? But the tricky part is because of which scum he voted, not that he voted scum.

And I'm a little disappointed basically my conclusion is just further confirmation on a read I already had oh well. More to come.

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE BusinessLamp

[bozotheclown]

##VOTE Fluminator

[brainbomb]

Flum I read the post but I dont understand why any of what you described there makes businesslamp seem less likely to be scum. Why would it matter if he moved to kakarrotto with six minutes to go?

[brainbomb]

I think this looks good on Blamp. He was around for 6 minutes at a precarious position eod where it was a scum vs. town showdown. I do think he acts and boosts Kak instead of hoping for a town to do it first. He has quite a bit of nerve otherwise. Whoever acted first was likely what decided where the remaining votes go to avoid a tie so he had the power to shift it to Kak but didn't. It's a minor enough thing that he would have gotten away with it as scum and I suspect he'd know that.

So tl;dr
Blamp looks quite good in new vote analysis.

problem with this is inexperience
where you say this player knows what will happen this simply isnt valid. Businesslamp is in his; what, second game? potentially first ever stint as mafia? and you are expecting veteran decision making and using what an expert scum player would do as evidence on his behalf when he isnt an expert, he isnt a novice, hes a beginner scum who doesnt know when its time to secure a scum partners security. he doesnt know if following two of his mafia buddies is dangerous. he doesnt know if he should be bussing or sloughing or what he should be doing here. So from a scum businesslamp perspective everything you are arguing is invalid

[brainbomb]

@BusinessLamp
what is your experience level at forum
mafia?

also describe for me the thought process you had when deciding to vote for kak on day 1?

[BobMcBob]

Vote Count Version 5.1
Fluminator: (5) DemonRHK*, worcej, Jamiet99uk, rdrivera2005, bozotheclown
BusinessLamp: (3) Bonatogether, brainbomb, Chaqa
DemonRHK: (1) pyxxy

Non-votes: BusinessLamp, Fluminator

End-votes: Fluminator (1) out of 6 needed

DEADLINE IS IN 1 DAY 7 HOURS AND 31 MINUTES

[bozotheclown]

The way Fluminator is town reading BusinessLamp for questionable things makes me think Fluminator is the flipper who is going to flip VT and BusinessLamp is the goon.

##VOTE BusinessLamp
##END

[brainbomb]

its 4-4 now
we cant end with a tie obviously

[bozotheclown]

Here are the final results from the scum suspect survey:

bozo: BusinessLamp, RHK, Sabi, worcej
Jamie: BusinessLamp, Sabi, worcej, RHK
RHK: BusinessLamp, Fluminator, Sabi, rdrivera
Bonatogether: BusinessLamp, bozo, RHK, rdrivera
Sabi: BusinessLamp, rdrivera, RHK, worcej
Chaqa: BusinessLamp, Fluminator, rdrivera, worcej
brainbomb: PE, Bona, Fluminator, Sabi
PE: Fluminator, RHK, worcej, rdrivera
rdrivera: Fluminator, Sabi, RHK, BusinessLamp
BusinessLamp: Chaqa, Sabi, Fluminator, Bona
pyxxy: Fluminator, rdrivera, RHK, worcej
Fluminator: RHK, Sabi, worcej, pyxxy
worcej: Sabi, Fluminator, BusinessLamp, brainbomb

BusinessLamp: 8
Fluminator: 8
RHK: 8
Sabi: 8
worcej: 7
rdrivera: 6
Bonatogether: 2
bozo: 1
brainbomb: 1
Chaqa: 1
PE: 1
pyxxy: 1
Jamie: 0

Considering at least 11 of the 13 voters were town, there was a lot of town consensus, but no clear top suspects. I do not think this gave anything away to the mafia, it should have already been clear to them who they need to NK.

The good news is that if the remaining mafia are in BusinessLamp, Fluminator, RHK, worcej, and rdrivera, as most players think, we will get the chance to DK all 5, because we have 3 mis-kills left. If the mafia are outside of this group, they have done a good job of fooling town and will probably win.

In my opinion, Fluminator, BusinessLamp, and RHK should be the next 3 DKs. I would put worcej next. worcej and rdrivera are both D2 bussing candidates, but I would be surprised if rdrivera missed voting D1 as mafia.

If the remaining mafia are Fluminator and worcej, my apologies in advance to RHK.

If the remaining mafia are in BusinessLamp, Fluminator, RHK, worcej, and rdrivera, they would know they would have to get someone outside of this group DKed to win, which is why I think BusinessLamp trying to make a case on Chaqa D4 was suspicious. BusinessLamp also put Bona in his picks, and Fluminator had pyxxy in his picks, so these could be the players they plan to try to get mis-killed if they are the last 2 mafia.

[brainbomb]

It seems to me that nobody has any idea who scum might be

In which case has it occurred to anybody that it might be TheHoveringFlotilla?

Good thought. ##VOTE businesslamp

such a strange move
someone mentions your janitor
so you bus your other guy?

if this turns about to be true I wanna do a clinical research project on understanding ghug

[brainbomb]

ghug day one voting is so non committal and snappy. there are no actual suspicions attached to a single one of these votes. after blamp he votes worcej, then he gets bored with that and votes jamie.

[brainbomb]

gonna look into one more person just to make sure but this feels pretty wrapped up. we just need to agree on blamp or flum

[brainbomb]

upfront apology to Eden, I was frustrated, but this was written after ghug replaced out:
——
God thread submission:
My towncore right now is brainbomb and worcej. those are the infallibles. Given ghug’s last post I feel good moving him there. Bozo and Eden are town as well, probably. At least bozo is. Eden has been playing miserably for the most part and has been very distracting for the town. If those were actual cop softs, he’s not as clever as he thinks he is. He’s the problem in his argument with ghug. It’s just bad. I’m not going to say this in game thread because it won’t result in anything good, but my god is it frustrating. Anyway, thats 5 trusted townspeople. A good place to start out of what, 15 other players now? I’d guess pyxxy is town, too. So that leaves 9 candidates. Bona, Chaqa, and Damo are the most potentially dangerous scum, I think. If I get out and Chaqa is scum, he can probably win this. I think I need to play nice with him until the time is right to maybe build a case, because I think people will write him off when they shouldn’t. This wouldn’t be for many days, but still. Maniac is probably town, too, idk. Jamie/Sabi/[Bona, Chaqa, Damo] seems likely. Who does that leave? TFB, rdr, Demon. Demon I lean town on, he’s been pretty emotional. RDR has made some sense. TFB definitely still a possibility. So Jamie/Sabi/Damo/Chaqa/Bona/TFB. Three scum. Let’s get ‘em!!!

this is trolling with fluminator vibes written all over its manufacture. flum gave him this idea lol