M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[worcej]

I like it when I actually try to stay in touch with what's happening and everyone just ignores me apart from a wallpost about why I'm scum from Eden.

Helpy.

I didn't think your question was aimed at me.

[President Eden]

I like it when I actually try to stay in touch with what's happening and everyone just ignores me apart from a wallpost about why I'm scum from Eden.

Helpy.

I wouldn’t describe it as that. I’m not sure how I feel about you. I just pointed out that we’ve kind of given you a pass all game based on mechanics-related behaviors and I don’t think we’ve once gone back to think about the implications for you when we’ve rejected a bunch of the premises that cleared you:
• you were not doc saved or roleblocked
• Maniac was not the Flipper

It’s a request for more inquiry from my team since I don’t think I’ll be around to do it myself. Not an accusation. Obviously, since I want people to dig into you, I made sure to highlight potentially suspicious things. But I am not accusing you right now.


@Chaqa — maybe? Unclear. I tend to think there’s no real reason for mafia brainbomb to actively and fiercely attack the premise of a POE hunt when everyone is putting him outside of it, and to do so in a way that he knows is faulty (at least as far as I’m concerned, but probably Bona too) and likely to get him a little side-eye for people.
That’s not a full exoneration obviously but it’s something. Just doesn’t seem like it fits.
And while I can’t go back and pinpoint messages right now I remember thinking that his progression on celaph didn’t look like a bus at all

[rdrivera2005]

who are the two? and why not four?

Flum and Demon.

We are at 9-2 after this night (probably, considering 2 Mafia alive and no doc save). This means 3 miskills left, so if I am wrong about this two it's probably better to flip me before kilo.

or you could like play
and try

I am playing and I am trying. I am not a big poster, never was, but I am giving my thoughts and tryng to push my scumreads.

But I acknowledge that not voting D1 makes me a suspect and I can't do anything about it. I had hopes to be scanned as I was a good target, but I don't think it would happen at this point.

[President Eden]

The null hypothesis isn’t “everything is fake and the onus is on you to prove it’s real.” Maybe at the start of day 1, but at some point you have to look at a player who has consistently acted in perfect accord with town’s interests and go “okay, he’s not playing some 86 dimensional galaxy brain backgammon on me, he’s town.”

If Bona hasn’t met that threshold for you then fair play but fucking WHY omg I’ve been asking all game and gotten no good answer.

I look forward to this being thrown in my face forever if I’m wrong here but come on, at some point the burden can’t solely be on me to make the case for his innocence against entirely conclusory statements that he might be guilty.

Again, kinda weird for you to invalidate an approach some people take - this is also crucial for why you should openly explain people you town so we can see what you see and possibly adjust our opinions.

I don't see what is so obviously Bona being town like you do. I don't respond well to 'just take my word' type responses.

I haven’t ever done that with Bona… not before explaining to at least some degree anyway. I wrote about it specifically while I was discussing the game with ghug before casing him N2. I did it again to tortured length last night.

It is exasperating to write tedious tomes about Bona being town only for people to dish out lazy one liners like “well Bona could fake it” and then turn around and be told I’ve been the one telling people to just trust me.

It kind of just makes me wonder if anybody actually reads what I post, but then if I DON’T do these tedious long-winded explanations then people ignore my reads or think I haven’t explained them enough. It’s a really frustrating catch-22.

[rdrivera2005]

The null hypothesis isn’t “everything is fake and the onus is on you to prove it’s real.” Maybe at the start of day 1, but at some point you have to look at a player who has consistently acted in perfect accord with town’s interests and go “okay, he’s not playing some 86 dimensional galaxy brain backgammon on me, he’s town.”

If Bona hasn’t met that threshold for you then fair play but fucking WHY omg I’ve been asking all game and gotten no good answer.

I look forward to this being thrown in my face forever if I’m wrong here but come on, at some point the burden can’t solely be on me to make the case for his innocence against entirely conclusory statements that he might be guilty.

Again, kinda weird for you to invalidate an approach some people take - this is also crucial for why you should openly explain people you town so we can see what you see and possibly adjust our opinions.

I don't see what is so obviously Bona being town like you do. I don't respond well to 'just take my word' type responses.

I haven’t ever done that with Bona… not before explaining to at least some degree anyway. I wrote about it specifically while I was discussing the game with ghug before casing him N2. I did it again to tortured length last night.

It is exasperating to write tedious tomes about Bona being town only for people to dish out lazy one liners like “well Bona could fake it” and then turn around and be told I’ve been the one telling people to just trust me.

It kind of just makes me wonder if anybody actually reads what I post, but then if I DON’T do these tedious long-winded explanations then people ignore my reads or think I haven’t explained them enough. It’s a really frustrating catch-22.

I know it will sound like buddying but I agree with your take on Bona. He was key on getting the Celaph wagon going and the way he interacted with Celaph doesn't seem S x S. It could have been faked, but I fail to see a motivation as it wasn't clear Celaph will be flipped when it started. It's more or less the same I feel about Jamiet, I can't see a scum motivation for the claim, specially not knowing how fake claiming would be dealt.

[Chaqa]

Bona is town.

If you guys kill him at any point I will be very upset.

But you killed Sabi, so I shouldn't expect any good choices.

[Jamiet99uk]

I like it when I actually try to stay in touch with what's happening and everyone just ignores me apart from a wallpost about why I'm scum from Eden.

Helpy.

Hi Jamie how’s your band doing?

Not badly. Our singer is in the studio later this month to record the last vocal parts and then it will be mixed and sent over to the record company. Progress was slowed by everyone taking it in turns to get Covid but we're nearly there.

[Jamiet99uk]

I like it when I actually try to stay in touch with what's happening and everyone just ignores me apart from a wallpost about why I'm scum from Eden.

Helpy.

I wouldn’t describe it as that. I’m not sure how I feel about you. I just pointed out that we’ve kind of given you a pass all game based on mechanics-related behaviors and I don’t think we’ve once gone back to think about the implications for you when we’ve rejected a bunch of the premises that cleared you:
• you were not doc saved or roleblocked
• Maniac was not the Flipper

I never claimed I was roleblocked. I'm a VT so I wouldn't even know. What is the importance of me not being roleblocked?

[Jamiet99uk]

I like it when I actually try to stay in touch with what's happening and everyone just ignores me apart from a wallpost about why I'm scum from Eden.

Helpy.

I didn't think your question was aimed at me.

I was kinda asking for anyone to explain the thing about an apparent Mafia kill attempt on me. But now that's been rendered irrelevant by Chaqa's Doc claim.

[President Eden]

I’m kind of at the point where I think JOAT should out at EON and y’all should be able to work it out amongst yourselves.

You’re going to have three more shots before crunch time. I think you need to resolve Fluminator for sure. I think he’s been given enough time and he hasn’t really impressed. I think y’all need to resolve Demon, but maybe not tomorrow. If you can resolve him to your satisfaction without hanging him then okay, I’m trusting you, but I’m still kinda side-eyeing over the progression there. And if Flum flips town, then part of me is really nagging that town ghug isn’t just going to be 100% wrong about my attempts to form a towncore and then have his meltdown and peace out. I got enough faith in town ghug to believe he has a point. But yea. Y’all handle it.

Something in me is saying rivera is town but I got actual nothing for why, I feel like he speaks in a more cagey or aloof way when he’s mafia, whereas when he’s town he is a straight shooter and I’m getting latter vIbEs from him. But y’all will probably flip the d1 AFKs at some point no matter what I say so I’m not going to dwell on it.

Jamie is worth a look. You’ll have to figure that out too. I have no solid opinion.

Think that’s about all.

[President Eden]

I like it when I actually try to stay in touch with what's happening and everyone just ignores me apart from a wallpost about why I'm scum from Eden.

Helpy.

I wouldn’t describe it as that. I’m not sure how I feel about you. I just pointed out that we’ve kind of given you a pass all game based on mechanics-related behaviors and I don’t think we’ve once gone back to think about the implications for you when we’ve rejected a bunch of the premises that cleared you:
• you were not doc saved or roleblocked
• Maniac was not the Flipper

I never claimed I was roleblocked. I'm a VT so I wouldn't even know. What is the importance of me not being roleblocked?

You’re missing the forest for the trees a bit. It’s not that you claimed you were roleblocked, it’s that part of why we all wrote you off was that we thought you were actually a PR, but the mafia never respected that possibility. I’m just pointing out that we’ve come up with a lot of mechanically driven reasons to clear you that have all bombed, and I think you haven’t gotten the careful scrutiny that’s needed. Maybe that scrutiny will exonerate you! I have no firm position on it. But while my time is short I need to point out the things that still need resolving.

[Chaqa]

I like it when I actually try to stay in touch with what's happening and everyone just ignores me apart from a wallpost about why I'm scum from Eden.

Helpy.

Hi Jamie how’s your band doing?

Not badly. Our singer is in the studio later this month to record the last vocal parts and then it will be mixed and sent over to the record company. Progress was slowed by everyone taking it in turns to get Covid but we're nearly there.

When it's all done make sure you give us some links to check out

[Chaqa]

I’m kind of at the point where I think JOAT should out at EON and y’all should be able to work it out amongst yourselves.

You’re going to have three more shots before crunch time. I think you need to resolve Fluminator for sure. I think he’s been given enough time and he hasn’t really impressed. I think y’all need to resolve Demon, but maybe not tomorrow. If you can resolve him to your satisfaction without hanging him then okay, I’m trusting you, but I’m still kinda side-eyeing over the progression there. And if Flum flips town, then part of me is really nagging that town ghug isn’t just going to be 100% wrong about my attempts to form a towncore and then have his meltdown and peace out. I got enough faith in town ghug to believe he has a point. But yea. Y’all handle it.

Something in me is saying rivera is town but I got actual nothing for why, I feel like he speaks in a more cagey or aloof way when he’s mafia, whereas when he’s town he is a straight shooter and I’m getting latter vIbEs from him. But y’all will probably flip the d1 AFKs at some point no matter what I say so I’m not going to dwell on it.

Jamie is worth a look. You’ll have to figure that out too. I have no solid opinion.

Think that’s about all.

Can you link to the ghug posts you're talking about?

I feel similarly on rivera. He's been moving up the list slowly and it's why I'm feeling Flum/worcej right now, with Demon as a maybe.

[Chaqa]

I'm going to back and re-analyze D1/D2 in a bit with Sabi's townflip.

[Jamiet99uk]

I wouldn’t describe it as that. I’m not sure how I feel about you. I just pointed out that we’ve kind of given you a pass all game based on mechanics-related behaviors and I don’t think we’ve once gone back to think about the implications for you when we’ve rejected a bunch of the premises that cleared you:
• you were not doc saved or roleblocked
• Maniac was not the Flipper

I never claimed I was roleblocked. I'm a VT so I wouldn't even know. What is the importance of me not being roleblocked?

You’re missing the forest for the trees a bit. It’s not that you claimed you were roleblocked, it’s that part of why we all wrote you off was that we thought you were actually a PR, but the mafia never respected that possibility. I’m just pointing out that we’ve come up with a lot of mechanically driven reasons to clear you that have all bombed, and I think you haven’t gotten the careful scrutiny that’s needed. Maybe that scrutiny will exonerate you! I have no firm position on it. But while my time is short I need to point out the things that still need resolving.

Are we 100% certain that we know who was roleblocked, each night?

Chaqa has not claimed any roleblocks.

You claim you were roleblocked N2 and N3 and I didn't claim until late on N2 so there's no reason they would try to roleblock me N1, but even if they did roleblock me N1 I would not know about it. So perhaps they saw me softing investigative and roleblocked me. Or perhaps they simply though you were the better RB target than me.

[Chaqa]

I never claimed I was roleblocked. I'm a VT so I wouldn't even know. What is the importance of me not being roleblocked?

You’re missing the forest for the trees a bit. It’s not that you claimed you were roleblocked, it’s that part of why we all wrote you off was that we thought you were actually a PR, but the mafia never respected that possibility. I’m just pointing out that we’ve come up with a lot of mechanically driven reasons to clear you that have all bombed, and I think you haven’t gotten the careful scrutiny that’s needed. Maybe that scrutiny will exonerate you! I have no firm position on it. But while my time is short I need to point out the things that still need resolving.

Are we 100% certain that we know who was roleblocked, each night?

Chaqa has not claimed any roleblocks.

You claim you were roleblocked N2 and N3 and I didn't claim until late on N2 so there's no reason they would try to roleblock me N1, but even if they did roleblock me N1 I would not know about it. So perhaps they saw me softing investigative and roleblocked me. Or perhaps they simply though you were the better RB target than me.

There's no way to know who was roleblocked on N1, unfortunately. It could have been Snowy for all we know.

[Jamiet99uk]

You’re missing the forest for the trees a bit. It’s not that you claimed you were roleblocked, it’s that part of why we all wrote you off was that we thought you were actually a PR, but the mafia never respected that possibility. I’m just pointing out that we’ve come up with a lot of mechanically driven reasons to clear you that have all bombed, and I think you haven’t gotten the careful scrutiny that’s needed. Maybe that scrutiny will exonerate you! I have no firm position on it. But while my time is short I need to point out the things that still need resolving.

Are we 100% certain that we know who was roleblocked, each night?

Chaqa has not claimed any roleblocks.

You claim you were roleblocked N2 and N3 and I didn't claim until late on N2 so there's no reason they would try to roleblock me N1, but even if they did roleblock me N1 I would not know about it. So perhaps they saw me softing investigative and roleblocked me. Or perhaps they simply though you were the better RB target than me.

There's no way to know who was roleblocked on N1, unfortunately. It could have been Snowy for all we know.

Yes but Eden, who has been roleblocked twice, thinks I'm suspect because I wasn't roleblocked.

I'm just saying that's not a very weighty piece of evidence.

[President Eden]

As clipping quotes on mobile is a pain I will just reply and trust you to figure it out

@Jamie — I ate the roleblocks like a starvin kid at a buffet N2 onward, but we have no idea what happened N1. Relevant to you specifically, you didn’t begin trying to soft anything until well past N1, so it doesn’t really mean anything. But for general curiosity’s sake, no clue what happened N1.

@Chaqa — go look for my stupid long wall post on ghug N2 and work backwards a bit and you’ll see our exchange. ghug was fairly adamant that I was rushing to conclusions about treating the entire d1 celaph crew as clear. If he’s mafia his motivation is obvious and need not be examined further. If he’s town though, he’s probably entitled to some treatment of it as valid… the issue was that he wouldn’t discuss it with me at all as bozo has pointed out repeatedly. But there’s certainly a world where he does that as town too.

Basically I don’t really want to believe ghug was town and 100% wrong in his attempt (however poorly executed I may personally believe it was) to help steer my thinking in the right direction.

[President Eden]

oh come on Jamie I literally just went over what I mean. That’s not an accurate characterization at all.

I’m pointing out that you got a pass for mechanical reasons that are now bunk. So you should be examined closer. You’re making this into a bigger issue than it is.

[Chaqa]

Are we 100% certain that we know who was roleblocked, each night?

Chaqa has not claimed any roleblocks.

You claim you were roleblocked N2 and N3 and I didn't claim until late on N2 so there's no reason they would try to roleblock me N1, but even if they did roleblock me N1 I would not know about it. So perhaps they saw me softing investigative and roleblocked me. Or perhaps they simply though you were the better RB target than me.

There's no way to know who was roleblocked on N1, unfortunately. It could have been Snowy for all we know.

Yes but Eden, who has been roleblocked twice, thinks I'm suspect because I wasn't roleblocked.

I'm just saying that's not a very weighty piece of evidence.

I don't think that's really his point. He's not saying you're suspect, he is saying you're not above suspicion.

Personally I don't think you're even remotely likely to be scum, and in fact I'm pretty sure your'e clear, but it is semantics.