M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[BusinessLamp]

anyway eden its pretty unlikely you could be mafia here I agree. I just wondered why you were behaving so oddly about bona. but its all good thank you for letting me have my paranoid delusional deep dive for a while there.

ive recovered

can you recover from thinking I’m mafia now, it’s upsetting

[brainbomb]

I struggle to beleive your posts to god qt because none of them talk
about how amazing it is to be in my mere presence

[President Eden]

One more time on Bona.

I think people have kind of blurred the sequence of events in their heads after the fact. Because we caught out celaph relatively early in the game, there’s this prevailing narrative that “oh celaph slipped up early as scum again,” “oh mafia knew it was gonna happen and could have been the first to jump,” blablabla.

celaph was not under suspicion and did not have a wagon start until the final 2 hours or so of D1. His name had gotten thrown out there frankly mostly for being MIA + not having a lot to say when he was around. That’s not something that a mafia can’t recover from though!

So sure Bona could have made the call to hard bus that early and just done it. Of course. It’s not impossible. Mafia can theoretically do anything town can do. My question to you is what exactly is your threshold to give a town read if Bona’s play doesn’t reach it? What he did is exactly in accord with town’s interest and perfectly consistent with his extremely high effort level and reasonably insightful analysis as just being a townie putting in a lot of work. Mafia can fake that, but there’s a world of difference between “I think mafia could have faked that” and “mafia did fake that.” If your answer is the latter, what exactly do you think can’t be faked?

It’s unfortunate ghug can’t answer this right now because I think he would actually have a super insightful and thoughtful response. If he took the inquiry seriously anyway which, maybe, who knows. Anyway, you’re not all ghug and you haven’t answered yet, so let me get some answers.

And if your response is to take the tactically skeptical position of “nothing, everything can be faked” and thus not townread anybody then (1) great but you’re lying, you’ve given out a townread before, and (2) you better be damn good at hunting mafia and frankly, none of us are. Y’all ain’t snowy. And even he would scoff at this tactical extreme nihilism where we negate every attempt to build a solid towncore because “it COULD be faked!”

The null hypothesis isn’t “everything is fake and the onus is on you to prove it’s real.” Maybe at the start of day 1, but at some point you have to look at a player who has consistently acted in perfect accord with town’s interests and go “okay, he’s not playing some 86 dimensional galaxy brain backgammon on me, he’s town.”

If Bona hasn’t met that threshold for you then fair play but fucking WHY omg I’ve been asking all game and gotten no good answer.

I look forward to this being thrown in my face forever if I’m wrong here but come on, at some point the burden can’t solely be on me to make the case for his innocence against entirely conclusory statements that he might be guilty.

[brainbomb]

eden heres what actually happened

bona said sabi and celaph were scum
demonrhk decided celaph was scum

both bona and rhk voted celaph

the difference is you decided for spurrious reasons that rhks push on celaph was bussing and bona push on celaph was heroic

[brainbomb]

and thats my takeaway. write a novel about the differences between rhk and bona if you want but my point stands and my point is simple and easy to understand and read.
it isnt that complicated its the exact same core set of actions

[rdrivera2005]

as another aside, I am wondering whether flipping the AFKs actually helps or not. conventional wisdom says that it does, but they seem like horrible info kills. aside from the obvious fact that flipping them explains their alignment, we don’t really learn anything else about the game state.

but at the same time having them around in endgame also seems like a horrible spot.

meh.

I don't think I should be around at endgame. I am a too easy miskill considering my lack of vote D1 and my low post rate. I won't suicide obviously and I think we have at least two better targets before I need to go, but if both are town I should probably be next.

who are the two? and why not four?

Flum and Demon.

We are at 9-2 after this night (probably, considering 2 Mafia alive and no doc save). This means 3 miskills left, so if I am wrong about this two it's probably better to flip me before kilo.

[brainbomb]

I don't think I should be around at endgame. I am a too easy miskill considering my lack of vote D1 and my low post rate. I won't suicide obviously and I think we have at least two better targets before I need to go, but if both are town I should probably be next.

who are the two? and why not four?

Flum and Demon.

We are at 9-2 after this night (probably, considering 2 Mafia alive and no doc save). This means 3 miskills left, so if I am wrong about this two it's probably better to flip me before kilo.

or you could like play
and try

[worcej]

for the record the AFKs can totally just be it.
but there’s enough stuff catching my eye on a more critical reexamination that makes me doubt it.
this game has been a battle of wills all the way down, it’s just really hard to believe that it could be so when 2 mafia were absent d1 and hard lurking all game, and the other 2 got caught out early on.

Nothing rdr has done has flagged my scumdar FWIW.

[worcej]

make it quick, the bullet is over and done, smothering with a bandage is just needless

Do you think brain’s doctor claim is serious?

It’s kinda got me

Soliciting NK advice from the game thread, bold move Cotton.

Let's see if it pays off Pepper.

[Jamiet99uk]

i’m so confused about the mafia allegedly shooting jamie

What mad theory is this?

Is this related to Brainbomb's Doctor claim?

Can someone answer this please? I'm confused.

[worcej]

Well then im not the doc I misread my role pm.

[Jamiet99uk]

i present this NOT to accuse as i historically suck at reading jamie + i don’t have time to do a better reread + there may be something obviously exonerating i’m just forgetting.

but rather as a reminder not to forget him and to think about whether he’s the deep threat. because he’s pulled something similar before not that long ago (M63, he had a play that i and others concluded “couldn’t come from jamie,” and then in actual fact it did and we only got him by POE because aaron is a god tier cop). and we’ve had like 4 different mechanical reasons to clear him that have all turned out to be a bust, and i think that’s led us not to look at his actual play as much.

so yea.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CdqoNKCCt7A

[Jamiet99uk]

Oh I see, you didn't mean Mafia targeted me and Brainbomb saved me.

In this setup, the Doctor doesn't know if they successfully make a save or not.

[rdrivera2005]

hell I kind of even doubt Flum is mafia.

I’m really feeling my narrative on Chaqa/Demon.

I’m worried that I die tonight and then y’all just murder like Lamp and pyxxy and the d1 AFKs and then go “hOw CoUlD tHiS bE hApPeNiNg” when it doesn’t work and then guess wrong on Flum at LYLO and we lose.

I'll go to bat for Blamp, at least.

Why are you so against the AFKs being the kills? Like, not even a full day phase ago, you were lockstep with me in the 4-5 player PoE, now you're suddenly pulling a brainbomb, despite me doing the exact thing you were advocating for.

I'm genuinely confused how we as a town went from having so much agreement and consensus to absolute infighting and discord in the matter of like 24 hours. It's heartbreaking, especially after the huge night we had last night thanks to the PRs.

I'm really sad you probably won't be around much longer Eden. I wanted us to carry this game to the finish line on our backs, but I'm pretty sure I'm going to get strung up for not giving up on the process we all built to win this game.

I think we all agree about the process of voting on the POE, but we don't agree on who is the POE (or at least about the order between the POE. And considering we don't have unlimited shots we have to fight over this.
I think yesterday was a lot better on generating info then a runaway wagon, the end result wasn't great, but there is no guarantee killing AFKs will give better result (in my case I know it won't).

[worcej]

I struggle to beleive your posts to god qt because none of them talk
about how amazing it is to be in my mere presence

When did you decide to embody the spirit of snowy?

[President Eden]

eden heres what actually happened

bona said sabi and celaph were scum
demonrhk decided celaph was scum

both bona and rhk voted celaph

the difference is you decided for spurrious reasons that rhks push on celaph was bussing and bona push on celaph was heroic

I still think you’re stripping essential context that separates them. It matters a great deal that one of them started the push and the other one had to have his arm twisted into joining and made up BS reasons for not joining initially.

[Chaqa]

Eden, do you think we’ve given too much of a pass to brain?

I kinda feel like he was baiting out the Doctor and then planned to retract under the guise of “just memeing”

[Jamiet99uk]

I like it when I actually try to stay in touch with what's happening and everyone just ignores me apart from a wallpost about why I'm scum from Eden.

Helpy.

[worcej]

One more time on Bona.

I think people have kind of blurred the sequence of events in their heads after the fact. Because we caught out celaph relatively early in the game, there’s this prevailing narrative that “oh celaph slipped up early as scum again,” “oh mafia knew it was gonna happen and could have been the first to jump,” blablabla.

celaph was not under suspicion and did not have a wagon start until the final 2 hours or so of D1. His name had gotten thrown out there frankly mostly for being MIA + not having a lot to say when he was around. That’s not something that a mafia can’t recover from though!

So sure Bona could have made the call to hard bus that early and just done it. Of course. It’s not impossible. Mafia can theoretically do anything town can do. My question to you is what exactly is your threshold to give a town read if Bona’s play doesn’t reach it? What he did is exactly in accord with town’s interest and perfectly consistent with his extremely high effort level and reasonably insightful analysis as just being a townie putting in a lot of work. Mafia can fake that, but there’s a world of difference between “I think mafia could have faked that” and “mafia did fake that.” If your answer is the latter, what exactly do you think can’t be faked?

My prevailing concern about just auto-locking someone as town for a D1 vote is because we've seen scum teams completely bus a player D1 just to get credit. DemonRHK I believe is the last one to have it happen and before him was BB - this isn't uncommon.

In regards to could have vs did - do we have enough information to for sure stop the thought process of one or the other? I dislike trying to kill potential potential analysis.

It’s unfortunate ghug can’t answer this right now because I think he would actually have a super insightful and thoughtful response. If he took the inquiry seriously anyway which, maybe, who knows. Anyway, you’re not all ghug and you haven’t answered yet, so let me get some answers.

And if your response is to take the tactically skeptical position of “nothing, everything can be faked” and thus not townread anybody then (1) great but you’re lying, you’ve given out a townread before, and (2) you better be damn good at hunting mafia and frankly, none of us are. Y’all ain’t snowy. And even he would scoff at this tactical extreme nihilism where we negate every attempt to build a solid towncore because “it COULD be faked!”

Is there anyone you feel is openly not townreading anyone? I don't think there is anyone I've seen been openly non-towning slots and if anything I'm seeing people ask why certain people, such as yourself, town certain people because there are some that I just didn't see - such as Sabi at the time.

The null hypothesis isn’t “everything is fake and the onus is on you to prove it’s real.” Maybe at the start of day 1, but at some point you have to look at a player who has consistently acted in perfect accord with town’s interests and go “okay, he’s not playing some 86 dimensional galaxy brain backgammon on me, he’s town.”

If Bona hasn’t met that threshold for you then fair play but fucking WHY omg I’ve been asking all game and gotten no good answer.

I look forward to this being thrown in my face forever if I’m wrong here but come on, at some point the burden can’t solely be on me to make the case for his innocence against entirely conclusory statements that he might be guilty.

Again, kinda weird for you to invalidate an approach some people take - this is also crucial for why you should openly explain people you town so we can see what you see and possibly adjust our opinions.

I don't see what is so obviously Bona being town like you do. I don't respond well to 'just take my word' type responses.

[Chaqa]

I like it when I actually try to stay in touch with what's happening and everyone just ignores me apart from a wallpost about why I'm scum from Eden.

Helpy.

Hi Jamie how’s your band doing?