M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[President Eden]

What is an AFK for your perspective?

I asked Chaqa about what ‘my normal’ is and he didn’t respond.

Someone who didn’t vote on D1, which continues, from my perspective, to be the most important day of the game.

Okay, but do you believe me when I say that I had no fucking idea I was subbed into the game until Bob reached out to me via Discord on N1.

Some reminder proof for you:

##Call GM - does Worcej know he is in the game?

worcej has not yet read my message to him. I will chase him up next phase (it’s a little late for that now).

I’d love to have given you something for D1 to VCA, but unfortunately I cannot go back in time my dude.

You aren’t being accused here.

Since you cannot change the outcome of the D1 votes, I suggest focusing your attention on something that can help us sort you instead of worrying about what I might conclude about you from something you can’t control.

[worcej]

If I read a day, is day 1 or day 2 better?

D2 imho - too much shitposting on D1 usually.

[President Eden]

If I read a day, is day 1 or day 2 better?

You really should read both, but Day 1 is IMO very critical to figuring out this game. Aside from D1 generally being the most vulnerable day for mafia in general, as they have the greatest delta in info wrt town and thus the most to hide, this particular D1 was highly probative as we nearly killed the Godfather D1.

D2 is useful but will always be crippled by doubt about whether Maniac was really the Flipper or not, IMO.

[Jamiet99uk]

I’m almost certain both scum were on the Sabi wagon.

is there even a “both” sgachsuwbsbwjwbsb

Good question.

[worcej]

Someone who didn’t vote on D1, which continues, from my perspective, to be the most important day of the game.

Okay, but do you believe me when I say that I had no fucking idea I was subbed into the game until Bob reached out to me via Discord on N1.

Some reminder proof for you:

worcej has not yet read my message to him. I will chase him up next phase (it’s a little late for that now).

I’d love to have given you something for D1 to VCA, but unfortunately I cannot go back in time my dude.

You aren’t being accused here.

Since you cannot change the outcome of the D1 votes, I suggest focusing your attention on something that can help us sort you instead of worrying about what I might conclude about you from something you can’t control.

I have been doing this by explaining why my vote is where it is, what I think the gamestate is, and reasons for flipping certain people. As much as Chaqa disagrees, Sabi was a good flip because now I am back to towning him for the most part (Sabi-Chaqa seemed really likely but his pissed off post right during EOD processing seems more scummy based off timing - it came off forced.)

The next flip that makes sense to me is Blamp or Flug (or ghum if you want).
I cannot remove myself from POE - it makes sense that I am in that group.

[Jamiet99uk]

You people are fucking insufferable.

Out of all of you in the last four hours to EoD, only Brainbomb even seemed like he was thinking like a human being.

[pyxxy]

You people are fucking insufferable.

Out of all of you in the last four hours to EoD, only Brainbomb even seemed like he was thinking like a human being.

what about me...

[Chaqa]

as another aside, I am wondering whether flipping the AFKs actually helps or not. conventional wisdom says that it does, but they seem like horrible info kills. aside from the obvious fact that flipping them explains their alignment, we don’t really learn anything else about the game state.

but at the same time having them around in endgame also seems like a horrible spot.

meh.

If they/re scum they need to flip

[DemonRHK]

You people are fucking insufferable.

Out of all of you in the last four hours to EoD, only Brainbomb even seemed like he was thinking like a human being.

I am a meat popsicle.

[worcej]

You people are fucking insufferable.

Out of all of you in the last four hours to EoD, only Brainbomb even seemed like he was thinking like a human being.

Do tell how we all suck and what he was doing differently than us.

[Chaqa]

What if it's just both worcej and rivera

[Jamiet99uk]

You people are fucking insufferable.

Out of all of you in the last four hours to EoD, only Brainbomb even seemed like he was thinking like a human being.

Do tell how we all suck and what he was doing differently than us.

You are a a meat popsicle.

[President Eden]

It’s Day 1. You rolled mafia. Oh, no!

Which of these situations most likely applies to you? Consider that these are all hypothetical scenarios involving a player who might be mafia, and that these are not accusations, but rather considerations of what the world in which these players are mafia must look like.

Also, I encourage you to read the entire description before clicking any links. The links will massively spoil you (if your memory isn’t shot and you don’t already know who is being discussed). For sake of trying to encourage you to read this without your priors I have intentionally redacted any names of the players at issue, but clicking the links will reveal who they are. Just wait til you’ve finished and you can go use the links to verify my claims.

1. At a couple of points early in the day, you meme about your Godfather teammate being sus because of a recent string of rolling mafia.
At T-2:15, your Godfather teammate, who has a bit of an unfortunate reputation for being sussed out early (sorry celaph), has gotten some light to moderate pressure from people, but has no votes and isn’t particularly likely to become a wagon at present. The current trending candidate is a townie who has an unfortunate reputation for being sus and struggles to defend himself sometimes (sorry Kak), and isn’t really around to defend himself here. You immediately cast doubt on the townie wagon and cast the first vote on your Godfather teammate, continue putting hard pressure on your Godfather teammate, flatly declare that there is no case on the leading townie wagon, lay out a light but salient case on your Godfather teammate, then peace out for the last hour of the day, having built considerable momentum for your teammate’s death, rendering yourself unable to pivot if circumstances change, and openly calling again for people not to kill the townie lead wagon.

2. Among your many interactions throughout the town you lightly shade your Godfather teammate for doing a couple of sus things earlier in the phase. You express your willingness to vote your teammate at T-5:45 but note your preference to wait a day at a point when your teammate is catching a little heat, but not votes. You don’t really mention him again until T-1:30, by which point one townie has voted him, he’s much more heavily considered. You call him your top scumread at T-1:30, but then reiterate your desire to give him a day at T-0:50, call it sad that your teammate is getting votes when he’s finally starting to contribute at T-0:12, then join his counterwagon at T-0:10, which possibly triggers a cascading avalanche of votes for the counterwagon and puts it insuperably far ahead. You then go wildcard and switch back, which only further seals the fate of the counterwagon (although it remains unclear whether this is happy accident for you as mafia or master plan). You then find excuses not to conduct promised analysis on your wildcard play for an entire day/night cycle, at which point you accuse three people, one of whom has since flipped town, one of whom has been checked town, and one of whom appears townie (but in fairness their alignment is not resolved yet).

3. About 3/4 of the way through the day, you take notice of your teammate’s lack of participation. You don’t mention them again until you’ve been accused by a townie of being mafia yourself. You declare your teammate and your accuser as your top scumreads at T-4:45. Things get more intense between you and your accuser, and as your teammate starts to gain momentum you switch vote from the person you OMGUS to a since-mech-cleared townie who you’ve barely mentioned before now, while declaring your Godfather teammate to be your top suspect; yet you use your anger at your accuser as a pretense not to vote your teammate. You then switch over to your teammate after heavy heckling from townies about your inconsistency and at a point which puts your more suspicious teammate ahead of your less suspicious teammate, who has also become a wagon.




I submit to you that both #2 and #3 are reasonable progressions for mafia to have but that #1 really isn’t.

[President Eden]

brainbomb predictably taps out first.

[Chaqa]

Option #4: all three are town and it's 2/3 of worc, rdr, and Flum :

[President Eden]

Option #4: all three are town and it’s 2/3 of worc, rdr, and Flum :

A possible world, but I see worcej and rivera as glorified crapshoots. They’re fine “default” solutions if all other paths have been exhausted, but those paths haven’t. Part of the reason people rightly still worry about you, aside from the implied issues above, is that you seem to think the other paths have been exhausted well before they have.

[DemonRHK]

Eden, did that post serve any purpose other than self-fellatio?

You stated a bunch of things with long words to sound more important, added timers because numbers=FACTS and arrived at the same conclusion that you're just gonna park your ass on me again.

[President Eden]

Eden, did that post serve any purpose other than self-fellatio?

You stated a bunch of things with long words to sound more important, added timers because numbers=FACTS and arrived at the same conclusion that you’re just gonna park your ass on me again.

I actually came away with it more worried about Chaqa than you, but in the words of a poor railroaded townie, “go off, king.”

[DemonRHK]

Eden, did that post serve any purpose other than self-fellatio?

You stated a bunch of things with long words to sound more important, added timers because numbers=FACTS and arrived at the same conclusion that you’re just gonna park your ass on me again.

I actually came away with it more worried about Chaqa than you, but in the words of a poor railroaded townie, “go off, king.”

Fair enough. Your prose was so indignant I could barely follow what narrative you were trying to spin.

[President Eden]

And if you don’t think timestamps are important then I’m kind of at a loss as to how you can possibly be thinking critically about the situation. Timing is actually a huge reason why #1 is so unlikely as a candidate. #1 would have consciously chosen to start and push a wagon on their Godfather teammate when no one else was voting there and said teammate was one of several people up for discussion, but plainly not a foregone conclusion as there were seven other wagons at the time. I think #1 has incorrectly been retconned to have simply been one of the people who jumped on a bandwagon when in reality #1 built the bandwagon and pushed it down the hill.