M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

[worcej]

I am in a work training class for the next three days. My normal work activity is not possible.

I just checked bot and see I am a wagon - I accept I am in POE and cannot participate in a significant way, so if you’re pressure voting me then I get it but know I cannot change my RL commitments.

I have been trying to be open and logical with my analysis and reasoning. Take that as you will.

[Chaqa]

Translating Bozo's survey into power ranking:
(Assuming list is unordered, as mine isn't super ordered)

BusinessLamp: 7
Fluminator: 6
Sabi: 6
worcej: 5
Rivera: 5
RHK: 4
Bona: 2
Bozo: 1
PE: 1
Chaqa: 1

[President Eden]

When TFB and Celaph were the top two wagons on Day 1 (not Day 2) was it looking really certain one of them would be killed?

Because I notice Demon doesn't vote Celaph until after those two wagons are tied at the top.

Hmm.

My first instinct says scum!Demon would prioritize saving the Godfather there, but maybe he viewed celaph as a lost cause? Possible

how many times must it be pointed out that Demon openly scumread celaph but came up with a BS reason not to vote him until his arm was twisted into voting celaph before you even acknowledge that this point is being made much less weigh in on it

[Chaqa]

Translating Bozo's survey into power ranking:
(Assuming list is unordered, as mine isn't super ordered)

BusinessLamp: 7
Fluminator: 7
Sabi: 6
worcej: 6
Rivera: 6
RHK: 5
Bona: 2
Bozo: 1
PE: 1
Chaqa: 1

Updated with pyxxy's list

[worcej]

Rivera and worcej's lack of D1 votes could help explain why VCA seems indecisive outside of Blamp.

Maybe it's Blamp + one of them

or Flum + one of them

I cannot control how I was subbed into the game with no effective notice.

[President Eden]

the thing is that quite frankly I think Maniac makes perfect sense as VT…

it’s just kind of an odd choice to me to choose to flip as a VT. aside from masking the number of remaining mafia (which has very little value IMO), this doesn’t do much; you can’t make any plays to bait PRs, you can’t flip as a Cop-countering role to further disrupt scans, it just kinda lacks inherent utility FMPOV.

pre flip

in your mind that means I knew 100% that Maniac wasn’t the Flipper?

your quote of me RE: Jamie is actually perfectly emblematic of what I mean. I went into Maniac’s flip sure that Maniac being innocent = Jamie being guilty, and then reconsidered after a fairly lengthy consideration of the consequences to mafia of making that play

[Chaqa]

When TFB and Celaph were the top two wagons on Day 1 (not Day 2) was it looking really certain one of them would be killed?

Because I notice Demon doesn't vote Celaph until after those two wagons are tied at the top.

Hmm.

My first instinct says scum!Demon would prioritize saving the Godfather there, but maybe he viewed celaph as a lost cause? Possible

how many times must it be pointed out that Demon openly scumread celaph but came up with a BS reason not to vote him until his arm was twisted into voting celaph before you even acknowledge that this point is being made much less weigh in on it

I don't necessarily like his reasoning, but not voting with a strong scumread is not unheard of. I'll do some digging on if RHK has done this before as town over lunch.

[worcej]

You know what. Fuck it.

##Vote worcej

Not like he's contributing anyway

Rdr might be a better push since homeboy did one line reads, didn't engage with any posts in his catch up, etc. He's been pedestrian

That's how RDR plays.

Worcej is usually full of opinions and hot takes. Where have they been?

Fair - I am trying to minimize my hot takes in an effort to not provoke needless fighting.

[worcej]

Rdr might be a better push since homeboy did one line reads, didn't engage with any posts in his catch up, etc. He's been pedestrian

That's how RDR plays.

Worcej is usually full of opinions and hot takes. Where have they been?

Fine ##VOTE worcej

This is a self-saving vote imho and is rather scummy only in the probable lack of opinion based on their own thoughts.

[DemonRHK]

Blame, flum, Sabi, rdr

Holy hell did we put up like 30 pages in like 9 hours?

Anyway, I never planned to finish on myself (giggity) and I see swingin subs is back on the menbu

##Vote worc

Sabi had 6 votes when RHK voted outside his top 4 scum suspects.

##VOTE RHK

Pretty sure I've been vocal about keeping wagons close for a good VCA going forward. You do you king, I'm fine if I live or die here.

[brainbomb]

fascinating day so far. not sure what were learning here other than scum is grabbing a plate for a second helping. maybe town is indeed imploding and in none of the ways that I foretold. And yet somehow I am going to be the cause of this presumably lol

[worcej]

Holy hell did we put up like 30 pages in like 9 hours?

Anyway, I never planned to finish on myself (giggity) and I see swingin subs is back on the menbu

##Vote worc

I cannot fault the consistency of his opinion to kill the subs.

[brainbomb]

RHK emotional reactions to flips and to pressure is how he played in m25 and m26 as town

[Chaqa]

Rivera and worcej's lack of D1 votes could help explain why VCA seems indecisive outside of Blamp.

Maybe it's Blamp + one of them

or Flum + one of them

I cannot control how I was subbed into the game with no effective notice.

I don't mean those first phases. I mean since this point:

Popping in to inform you all that my attendance will be 'normal' as of tomorrow morning.

Work today sucked and this weekend was too busy celebrating my non-existent birthday (hint: I am turning 8.5) twice because my mother hates my MIL. Coupled with the responsibilities of being a parent, my time wasn't available to sub in for D1 and I would've told Bob to sub in Flum or HB instead.

Tonight is celebrating my non-existent Bday with friends. Tomorrow I will work and catch up on whatever the shit this game is at currently.

It's been a week. What happened to your normal attendance?

[pyxxy]

And yet somehow I am going to be the cause of this presumably lol

Don't steal Sabi's self-deprecating schtick we don't have room for two of you

[brainbomb]

sabi has vanished and frozen up now

[worcej]

Rivera and worcej's lack of D1 votes could help explain why VCA seems indecisive outside of Blamp.

Maybe it's Blamp + one of them

or Flum + one of them

I cannot control how I was subbed into the game with no effective notice.

I don't mean those first phases. I mean since this point:

Popping in to inform you all that my attendance will be 'normal' as of tomorrow morning.

Work today sucked and this weekend was too busy celebrating my non-existent birthday (hint: I am turning 8.5) twice because my mother hates my MIL. Coupled with the responsibilities of being a parent, my time wasn't available to sub in for D1 and I would've told Bob to sub in Flum or HB instead.

Tonight is celebrating my non-existent Bday with friends. Tomorrow I will work and catch up on whatever the shit this game is at currently.

It's been a week. What happened to your normal attendance?

I was normal - I was active during work hours and not active on weekends.

What is your definition of my normal that doesn’t fit that?

[DemonRHK]

RHK emotional reactions to flips and to pressure is how he played in m25 and m26 as town

Holy shit brain I hope you really didn't dive those games for your sake. I think I'd say this is closer to my gladiator game you ran imo.

[brainbomb]

And yet somehow I am going to be the cause of this presumably lol

Don't steal Sabi's self-deprecating schtick we don't have room for two of you

I didnt think that talking would cause a complete town wide sanity breakdown

[BusinessLamp]

CHAQA’S HYPOTHETICAL SCUM GAME (told from a BusinessLamp is Town perspective)

Going chronologically, the first major point is his vote swing to me close to the end of day 1. At this point, he had his vote on TFB, and the vote count was 5 TFB, 4 celaph, 3 Chaqa, and 2 Kak, where Kak had just lost two votes on him and was losing steam. Chaqa decides to vote for me, because I am the most viable town wagon to catch steam. I was a major discussion point all day because of the fucking phone story, but because I scum-hunted well the next morning scum weren’t able to keep that wagon rolling. Still, with three scum on the table I was the best shot to see if people would latch onto as an alternative, so Chaqa tries to get it rolling. It doesn’t work, though, and no one latches on. So then he moves his vote to the next best option for scum, Kak. Chaqa’s vote is instrumental in a chain of Sabi/celaph/Chaqa/TFB to make Kak an option for the vote. It’s a really sudden swing, and could make sense as a coordinated scum effort. Sabi’s explanation for this was “kak’s last post was sus.” That explanation never felt legitimate. It might look too obvious when told this way, but I really think Chaqa/Sabi could make sense as a scum pair.

Now you might say Lamp, what about Chaqa’s switch onto celaph? Shouldn’t that be a point in his favor? I’d venture to say no, this was a low risk gambit that has high payoff. If it is the case that like, the entire fucking scum team had just rallied votes on Kak to present an alternative option, Chaqa would be aware that while this is a short-term win, it’s not going to look good down the road when celaph is eventually found out. So, with the vote at 7/5 with Kak going, Chaqa makes a bold play to separate himself from his team. I think the fact that he waited until 2 minutes were left to do this adds legitimacy to my theory-- Chaqa didn’t expect people to actually follow him onto celaph. Chaqa bet that people’s reactions when seeing a tie would be to re-inforce what the previous majority was. If he’s right, it’s a god tier play, Kak still goes, he’s not as associated with the Kak bandwagon. If celaph does go, he gets immediate and irrefutable towncred.

This isn’t the only time he’s made this play. Cut to day 2 -- Chaqa, once again alongside TFB and Sabi, are the people who run up the wagon on Maniac, claiming it’s “to make the day interesting.” However, I remember Chaqa’s next post striking me as odd, because his initial Maniac vote stated that he was just doing it for funsies, but then he posts this while still voting Maniac:

I see there are is a wagon on Maniac and a quick scan suggests that it's all the same reasons as before. I think his explanation on not voting Chaqa makes sense in context of someone who was having fun D1 and wanted to defend his townread in me. Also liked his other comments on people both from D1 and today.

Why do you think Maniac townread you?

@everyone:

At the time Maniac made his "I won't vote celaph today" post, this is the entirety of celaph's posting:

http://mafia.peterlund.se/e/web/msgs?us ... 1-p14&g=73

Does this strike anyone else as absolutely not a reason to put someone out of the PoE?

This is a legitimate, @everyone, rallying call for people to get on the Maniac wagon. It’s not a “I’m on this wagon to make things interesting” post.

However, it becomes abundantly clear that Maniac’s wagon isn’t gaining any steam. So again, being the most independently minded mafia member, he cuts his losses and jumps back onto celaph with 5 minutes remaining.

I’ll start with that, but I do think the D2 roleblock discussion adds to this case as well. I feel like this makes the whole game make sense, and it could just be a really obvious Chaqa/Sabi/TFB/celaph team that have been working in tandem to influence wagons the whole time.