M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

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President Eden
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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5521 Post by President Eden » Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:58 pm

brainbomb wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:47 pm
I guess your philosophy is dont panic until its almost too late

and my philosophy is lets panic while we have time and energy to panic
well, as someone who is pretty close to where Chaqa is from a game view perspective (set aside presentation concerns), I would say instead that my philosophy is don’t panic at all. that doesn’t mean don’t re-examine things.

but you seem almost absolutely convinced that there must be a deep threat specifically among Bona or Chaqa (I guess I’m in the running too, but I imagine the Cop claim thwarts that), and while I don’t necessarily have total conviction that our POE is 100% right, I still think the evidence fairly convincingly exonerates Bona and exonerated Chaqa as well (maybe less so, but on balance it does fairly easily IMO).

I think people just feel worse about losing to a deep threat than they do about losing to someone who’s vaguely suspicious but not blatantly guilty, and they consequently overvalue the importance of stopping the former and undervalue the importance of stopping the latter, and that doing so reduces town’s win rate compared to the inverse.

and I’m not saying that to dismiss you or say that what you’re concerned about has no merit. I just think it has less merit than the alternatives. and because our time is precious, I’d rather focus on what I think is more meritorious.

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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5522 Post by Chaqa » Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:58 pm

brainbomb wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:52 pm
furthermore how much time out of a day phase is it productive to just keep repeating stay the course - blamp is scum

such a waste of a discussion time is only valueable insofar as it ends up being true. in which case all other discussion is tedious but at least it occurred and at least the discussion mattered.

I dont completely see why blamp is obvious as scum here and you keep refusing to even tell me a page to find your case on
1. I wanted to hammer specifically because I see killing Blamp as a foregone conclusion.

2. It's already been reposted once at Eden's request. I would provide you with the page number, but why don't you simply re-read?

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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5523 Post by brainbomb » Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:58 pm

this isnt to say that either of us did something wrong up to this point in fact we pretty much did the same things until
now
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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5524 Post by President Eden » Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:59 pm

brainbomb wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:52 pm
furthermore how much time out of a day phase is it productive to just keep repeating stay the course - blamp is scum

such a waste of a discussion time is only valueable insofar as it ends up being true. in which case all other discussion is tedious but at least it occurred and at least the discussion mattered.

I dont completely see why blamp is obvious as scum here and you keep refusing to even tell me a page to find your case on
this is absolutely true, though I don’t know that I’d characterize it as exclusively spent there. but I 100% agree with the underlying premise

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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5525 Post by Chaqa » Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:59 pm

brainbomb wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:57 pm
weve caught two scum by following what was easy and my argument is that whoever the other two scum are would be more cunning and set up to look good so plowing through a lineup of players who look like shit in the vca is probably the wrong direction at this point
I would argue TFB was going to be the mafia's deep threat and we got extremely lucky the JOAT was the GOAT.

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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5526 Post by brainbomb » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:01 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:59 pm
brainbomb wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:57 pm
weve caught two scum by following what was easy and my argument is that whoever the other two scum are would be more cunning and set up to look good so plowing through a lineup of players who look like shit in the vca is probably the wrong direction at this point
I would argue TFB was going to be the mafia's deep threat and we got extremely lucky the JOAT was the GOAT.
how could this even be a thing he nearly died two days in a row and wouldve scanned guilty on a cop scan and never left the POE for 99% of the players. how would he ever go deep
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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5527 Post by Chaqa » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:02 pm

I think what it comes down to me with me, in general (not just related to mafia) is that being right is in itself its own justification.

Eden and Bona can probably think of a time or two where I was right but didn't present it well or wasn't super diplomatic about it, leading to some spectacular blowups (rip my discord)

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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5528 Post by Chaqa » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:02 pm

brainbomb wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:01 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:59 pm
brainbomb wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:57 pm
weve caught two scum by following what was easy and my argument is that whoever the other two scum are would be more cunning and set up to look good so plowing through a lineup of players who look like shit in the vca is probably the wrong direction at this point
I would argue TFB was going to be the mafia's deep threat and we got extremely lucky the JOAT was the GOAT.
how could this even be a thing he nearly died two days in a row and wouldve scanned guilty on a cop scan and never left the POE for 99% of the players. how would he ever go deep
He was widely townread and the cop was outed and being roleblocked every night.

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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5529 Post by brainbomb » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:03 pm

##unvote
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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5530 Post by brainbomb » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:04 pm

widely townread on what planet
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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5531 Post by brainbomb » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:10 pm

this topic reinforces my thought eden might be scum.
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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5532 Post by President Eden » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:10 pm

Chaqa wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:02 pm
brainbomb wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:01 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:59 pm


I would argue TFB was going to be the mafia's deep threat and we got extremely lucky the JOAT was the GOAT.
how could this even be a thing he nearly died two days in a row and wouldve scanned guilty on a cop scan and never left the POE for 99% of the players. how would he ever go deep
He was widely townread and the cop was outed and being roleblocked every night.
that is quite the overstatement IMO. suspicion on him was declining sure, but he surely hadn’t left my POE, and I doubt he left very many other players’ POE either. in fact I only recall Sabi giving the actual townread

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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5533 Post by brainbomb » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:11 pm

I will admit I did move tfb to town and I had extreme reservations that is was svsvt
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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5534 Post by BusinessLamp » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:12 pm

brainbomb wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 3:57 pm
weve caught two scum by following what was easy and my argument is that whoever the other two scum are would be more cunning and set up to look good so plowing through a lineup of players who look like shit in the vca is probably the wrong direction at this point
i agree with this but obviously me vocalizing this perspective has less merit

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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5535 Post by Chaqa » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:12 pm

President Eden wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:10 pm
Chaqa wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:02 pm
brainbomb wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:01 pm


how could this even be a thing he nearly died two days in a row and wouldve scanned guilty on a cop scan and never left the POE for 99% of the players. how would he ever go deep
He was widely townread and the cop was outed and being roleblocked every night.
that is quite the overstatement IMO. suspicion on him was declining sure, but he surely hadn’t left my POE, and I doubt he left very many other players’ POE either. in fact I only recall Sabi giving the actual townread
He was green in my PoE right up until he got shot.

That said - that was partially based around the assumption Maniac was Flipper, so perhaps it's right that TFB wasn't expected to go long.

If there is a true long threat, it's either Bona or Sabi.

I just don't think it's worth worrying about right now.

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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5536 Post by brainbomb » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:13 pm

sabi is very likely to die today so I dont see how they are deep at all
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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5537 Post by President Eden » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:14 pm

brainbomb wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:10 pm
this topic reinforces my thought eden might be scum.
how did this get turned around on me :lol:

the deep threat is probably Demon if you’re looking for one. presumably it’s somebody who voted celaph d1 and got mondo credit for it.

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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5538 Post by Chaqa » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:14 pm

This Blamp situation reminds me of a game or two ago when Bona was obvtown to me but I felt like we needed to vote him out to get everyone else out of a tunnel.

Except Blamp isn't obvtown, he's obvscum, and if he is town, I'm the one who needs to be knocked out of a tunnel.

If that makes sense.

The only way I wouldn't vote Blamp is if we voted Flum. And then I'd likely want to vote Blamp tomorrow.

Basically I think we should just hammer Blamp, Flum, worcej, and rivera in some order because it should win the game in 90% of realities.

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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5539 Post by brainbomb » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:15 pm

the three most likely to die today have always been flum sabi and blamp

rivera is too risky because he might just be the doc so nobody really wants to tango down that route
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Re: M73 - Fowl Play - Game Thread [HIDDEN]

#5540 Post by President Eden » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:16 pm

to be more precise, I don’t think the mafia had a designated deep threat by n1. with celaph and Boat already under fire they could be reasonably certain it’s not them. but I’m not sure that someone had already been playing all the way from d1 as certain they’d be the deep guy.

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