War, what is it good for?

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Matticus13
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#81 Post by Matticus13 » Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:52 am

Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is reportedly on fire. Firefighters are not able to reach the area currently. 6 nuclear reactors on site. No change in radiation levels so far. No word on what part of the site is on fire.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#82 Post by Matticus13 » Fri Mar 04, 2022 3:04 am

Matticus13 wrote:
Fri Mar 04, 2022 2:52 am
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is reportedly on fire. Firefighters are not able to reach the area currently. 6 nuclear reactors on site. No change in radiation levels so far. No word on what part of the site is on fire.
Plant is secure. Fire under control.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#83 Post by Matticus13 » Fri Mar 04, 2022 4:29 am

Ukrainian defense forces killed Russian Maj. Gen. Andrei Sukhovetsky in combat earlier this week, according to Ukrainian officials and Russian media. US intelligence has not been able to confirm.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#84 Post by Octavious » Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:44 am

I suspect that the nuclear plant is one of those stories that looks a lot bigger than what it is. Clearly a plant that supplies 1/4 of Ukraine's energy is a major strategic objective. Shelling it seems to me little more than Russia continuing with its strategy of whispering "nuclear" as often as possible in the direction of the West, as constant little reminders that they have nukes and badness can happen. They are very big installations, and blowing up an admin building without risking any actual damage is simple enough. The biggest risk is accidentally killing or scaring away crucial staff.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#85 Post by orathaic » Sun Mar 06, 2022 8:48 am

Octavious wrote:
Fri Mar 04, 2022 7:44 am
The biggest risk is accidentally killing or scaring away crucial staff.
I'm not sure. I presume newer plant designs fail safe.

As far a i'm aware staff during the Chernobyl accident actually made it worse (because reasons). But newer plants should be better designed.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#86 Post by Octavious » Sun Mar 06, 2022 9:09 am

Chernobyl was a long time ago. You'd imagine that knowledge of how to run plants has improved somewhat. But I wasn't thinking in terms of a risk of another Chernobyl, which I think is pretty negligible, but mostly the risk of people freezing to death etc etc because there's no one around to run the power station that caters for a quarter of the population.
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#87 Post by Randomizer » Sun Mar 06, 2022 12:08 pm

Less Chernobyl ady more Fukushima where the coolant system goes down and the heated reactor core melts down. Modern systems will still fail if they no longer have parts working.

They shut down 4 reactors just to prevent this from happening.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#88 Post by Octavious » Sun Mar 06, 2022 3:46 pm

As an aside, has it been widely reported in the US media that Ukraine have shot one their own negotiating team for treason?
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#89 Post by orathaic » Sun Mar 06, 2022 5:21 pm

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... t0nt5m_hzA

This appears to be a translation of a Russian analyst on the situation. Here he specilates that Putin will not order the use of nuclear weapons, and that they might not work right even if he does.

All the paperwork says everything is fine, but he clearly states earlier that his own security analysis (for hypothetical attacks) had to come back positive and in favour of Russia (because people start asking questions about why you aren't doing a good job). Big part of the slow speed of the Russian 'blitzkreig'.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#90 Post by flash2015 » Sun Mar 06, 2022 5:44 pm

Matticus13 wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:40 pm
I will say that the US Congress and the Biden Administration know China is taking notes, see Taiwan. This is the stage to convince Xi it's not worth it. Russia of course is not China (especially economically), but still a useful stage/sandbox to show some backbone.
I am not really sure the two situations are truly comparable. For example there is a high probability that if Taiwan is attacked multiple countries will come in to defend it. No such promises (direct or strategically ambiguous) were ever made to Ukraine. Taiwan is extraordinarily strategic to the US and its allies (e.g. Japan and South Korea) in the region. Ukraine is not. Taiwan is a much harder nut to crack because it requires an amphibious assault and is very mountainous (Ukraine is as flat as a pancake). Also, whatever the political differences, between the two countries, there is a large amount of economic integration between Taiwan and China (Taiwan has massive amounts of foreign investment in China). This is not something China will take on lightly as the costs will be MASSIVE...and there is no real rush for them to do this.

The conflict though has other opportunities for China. One of China's biggest problems in water, especially in the northern part of the country. China is going to extreme measures to divert water from the south of the country to the north but this is nowhere near enough. Contrast that with Siberia which has truly massive water resources (e.g. like Lake Baikal). Eastern Siberia is lightly populated while just over the border in China there is very high population density. If Russia descends into disarray due to the massive costs of the war, I could easily see China take advantage to try to solve their water issues.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#91 Post by orathaic » Sun Mar 06, 2022 8:40 pm

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... XCRUvfJAdA

Another thread describing Russian power dynamics (Party, State Security, and Military) ending in how mysterious dearga of general's have increased since Putin's most recent adventures in (Georgia, Syria, Crimea, Ukraine) ie 2008.

Author goes on to argue that Putin's real reason for being in Ukraine is democracy, and making sure it is crushed so Russians don't get any ideas...

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... XCRUvfJAdA (must read this one now).

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#92 Post by Matticus13 » Mon Mar 07, 2022 6:18 am

Octavious wrote:
Sun Mar 06, 2022 3:46 pm
As an aside, has it been widely reported in the US media that Ukraine have shot one their own negotiating team for treason?
Not by any of the mainstream media. Seems to be conflicting reports of how and why he was killed.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#93 Post by Matticus13 » Mon Mar 07, 2022 6:32 am

flash2015 wrote:
Sun Mar 06, 2022 5:44 pm
Matticus13 wrote:
Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:40 pm
I will say that the US Congress and the Biden Administration know China is taking notes, see Taiwan. This is the stage to convince Xi it's not worth it. Russia of course is not China (especially economically), but still a useful stage/sandbox to show some backbone.
I am not really sure the two situations are truly comparable. For example there is a high probability that if Taiwan is attacked multiple countries will come in to defend it. No such promises (direct or strategically ambiguous) were ever made to Ukraine. Taiwan is extraordinarily strategic to the US and its allies (e.g. Japan and South Korea) in the region. Ukraine is not. Taiwan is a much harder nut to crack because it requires an amphibious assault and is very mountainous (Ukraine is as flat as a pancake). Also, whatever the political differences, between the two countries, there is a large amount of economic integration between Taiwan and China (Taiwan has massive amounts of foreign investment in China). This is not something China will take on lightly as the costs will be MASSIVE...and there is no real rush for them to do this.
While it may be an "apples to oranges" comparison, the US can still make its point. I don't expect Taiwan to be invaded any time soon. If it ever were to happen, do you believe the US risks a nuclear dust up over Taiwan (which is technically part of China already)?

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#94 Post by Octavious » Mon Mar 07, 2022 6:42 am

Matticus13 wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 6:18 am
Octavious wrote:
Sun Mar 06, 2022 3:46 pm
As an aside, has it been widely reported in the US media that Ukraine have shot one their own negotiating team for treason?
Not by any of the mainstream media. Seems to be conflicting reports of how and why he was killed.
Indeed so, which in many respects is to be expected. What is very much not to be expected is for a member of a peace negotiation team in the highest profile war in decades being killed and it not being headline news
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#95 Post by orathaic » Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:28 am

Matticus13 wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 6:32 am
<Snip>
While it may be an "apples to oranges" comparison, the US can still make its point. I don't expect Taiwan to be invaded any time soon. If it ever were to happen, do you believe the US risks a nuclear dust up over Taiwan (which is technically part of China already)?
I believe the official stance is that Taiwan is China, and China is part of Taiwan... Did they ever sign an agreemnent after the civil war?

But since China is only recognised as one country on the international stage it may appear that Taiwan is more likely to be assimilated than Ukraine, which was widely recognised, a UN member state, and attempting to establish itself as a stable democracy.

Taiwan on the other hand has US military support, massive industrial and technological value, and significant strategic value (proof that you can stop China from doing whatever it wants - and if this war has highlighted anything, it is that belief and myths of national strength are fairly important for predicting both what certain actors will do, and what the results are likely to he).

@Oct: any change in prediction for the Russian invasion?

Here is some more speculation: https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/p ... perations/

And a discussion of logistics: https://mobile.twitter.com/PhillipsPOBr ... 5826746369

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#96 Post by Octavious » Mon Mar 07, 2022 1:06 pm

orathaic wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:28 am
@Oct: any change in prediction for the Russian invasion?
Nope. Everything thus far has been pretty much exactly as anticipated. The realisation that no decisive help is coming from NATO should be sinking in to the Ukrainian leadership by now. And the consequences of continuing to fight on continue to be demonstrated in the unfortunate southern cities. The talks will be underway again within an hour. Let's see if they think it's time to float some genuine proposals yet. Hopefully they will. If not... another week or so?
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Re: War, what is it good for?

#97 Post by orathaic » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:32 pm

Octavious wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 1:06 pm
orathaic wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:28 am
@Oct: any change in prediction for the Russian invasion?
Nope. Everything thus far has been pretty much exactly as anticipated. The realisation that no decisive help is coming from NATO should be sinking in to the Ukrainian leadership by now. And the consequences of continuing to fight on continue to be demonstrated in the unfortunate southern cities. The talks will be underway again within an hour. Let's see if they think it's time to float some genuine proposals yet. Hopefully they will. If not... another week or so?
I will be utterly shocked if Putin acvepts anything less than full surrender, and possibly loss of sovereignty. Which Ukraine i suspect will never offer.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#98 Post by Matticus13 » Mon Mar 07, 2022 4:59 pm

orathaic wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:28 am
I believe the official stance is that Taiwan is China, and China is part of Taiwan... Did they ever sign an agreemnent after the civil war?
The PRC is the recognized government of both (Taiwan is part of China). No official agreement in between the two. The fighting stopped in the '50s when the US stepped in.
orathaic wrote:
Mon Mar 07, 2022 11:28 am
But since China is only recognised as one country on the international stage it may appear that Taiwan is more likely to be assimilated than Ukraine, which was widely recognised, a UN member state, and attempting to establish itself as a stable democracy.

Taiwan on the other hand has US military support, massive industrial and technological value, and significant strategic value (proof that you can stop China from doing whatever it wants - and if this war has highlighted anything, it is that belief and myths of national strength are fairly important for predicting both what certain actors will do, and what the results are likely to he).
China isn't willing to pay the price right now. Give it a couple decades.

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#99 Post by orathaic » Mon Mar 07, 2022 10:44 pm

China specifically is not in a rush. They were a world power before the US had spread across the continent, and they will be again. The 200 years in between have not been kind, but they can afford to bide their time and not get into a war which could set them back a few decades.

Putin leading a declining Russia is not in a similar position. Did anyone else see his terms?

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Re: War, what is it good for?

#100 Post by Randomizer » Tue Mar 08, 2022 1:02 am

China right now is more interested in expanding control of the South China Sea with its Three Line map. In brings in more economic resources with oil and natural gas deposits with out fighting.

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